[Werthead]

Mentalist, on 21 February 2023 - 03:09 PM, said:

So Putler's delayed speech to the Fed Council had nothing of any particular meaning. Except for the overall message of "buckle up, cuz no one's getting off this ride any time soon"

Yeah, it was pretty weaksauce. Exiting START and then immediately rowing back on it and saying it was a temporary suspension which could be reversed at any time. No more mobilisation, no nuclear threats - I suspect China's angry attitude towards those discouraged him - and no real change in the situation. He's just going to keep going until he's ground the Russian army to fine powder, in the vague hope Ukraine gives in.

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 21 February 2023 - 05:52 PM, said:

Mentalist, on 21 February 2023 - 03:09 PM, said:

So Putler's delayed speech to the Fed Council had nothing of any particular meaning. Except for the overall message of "buckle up, cuz no one's getting off this ride any time soon"

Yeah, it was pretty weaksauce. Exiting START and then immediately rowing back on it and saying it was a temporary suspension which could be reversed at any time. No more mobilisation, no nuclear threats - I suspect China's angry attitude towards those discouraged him - and no real change in the situation. He's just going to keep going until he's ground the Russian army to fine powder, in the vague hope Ukraine gives in.

"suspending" START gives him an opportunity to "resume talks" when things start getting desperate.

I am somewhat concerned about Moldova now, though

[Werthead]

Prigozhin having a public meltdown and publicly screaming about Shoigu and Gerasimov starving his troops of ammo and transportation.

A Russian base in Mariupol appears to have been blown up. Some speculation that it was an accident, but Russian troops there are swearing blind that it was a missile. Interesting, as hitting the base with standard HIMARS from Ukrainian-held territory would be tricky. Some speculation that GLSDB might have already joined the party.

Russia tried to test a Sarmat ICBM yesterday but it apparently failed on the launchpad. The US had been warned of the test via their deconflict line.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

(5) NATO on Twitter: "🗣️ Ukraine is hosting one of the great epics of this century ❝We are Harry Potter and William Wallace, the Na'vi and Han Solo. We're escaping from Shawshank and blowing up the Death Star. We are fighting with the Harkonnens and challenging Thanos.❞ [9/10]

[Mentalist]

Another round of stuff exploding in Russia

oil depot in Krasnodar krai (SE Black Sea coast), a drone shot down in Adygea (N of the Caucasus mountain range), something crashing in Moscow Oblast' and St Petersburg's airport was closed for a bunch of hours due to a "UFO"

[Werthead]

Interesting analysis here.

Russia's effort to take Bakhmut appears to be culminating, and they seem intrigued by Prigozhin's analysis that it may culminate without the entire city in their hands before they have to refit their forces. Even if they take the city, it's unclear what they can do to start advancing on the Ukrainian defences beyond without either a massive new influx of troops or six months for regenerating their formations (or really, both). Meanwhile, the Ukrainians have bled the Russians to an utterly ludicrous degree during the fighting along the front and are well-poised for a counter-offensive at a time of their choosing. Some Russian estimates are that it will take two years at this rate to take all of Donetsk Oblast and they will pay for that with hundreds of thousands more lives, which does not seem sustainable (especially given that the Ukrainians have shown themselves to be stronger on the counter-offensive).

[Macros]

Aren't wag er saying they're running out of bullets and it's moscovian sabotage?

[Gothos]

By what I can tell it's just them getting as little supplies as everybody else now.

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 06 March 2023 - 09:41 PM, said:

Interesting analysis here.

Russia's effort to take Bakhmut appears to be culminating, and they seem intrigued by Prigozhin's analysis that it may culminate without the entire city in their hands before they have to refit their forces. Even if they take the city, it's unclear what they can do to start advancing on the Ukrainian defences beyond without either a massive new influx of troops or six months for regenerating their formations (or really, both). Meanwhile, the Ukrainians have bled the Russians to an utterly ludicrous degree during the fighting along the front and are well-poised for a counter-offensive at a time of their choosing. Some Russian estimates are that it will take two years at this rate to take all of Donetsk Oblast and they will pay for that with hundreds of thousands more lives, which does not seem sustainable (especially given that the Ukrainians have shown themselves to be stronger on the counter-offensive).

Tom Cooper's latest is a bit more pessimistic.

I don't really believe UAF would mass 5-6 brigades around Bakhmut, unless they were planning to basically shove the frontline back to the Lysychans'k-Popasna-Svitlodars'k line. Which seems unlikely atm.

I'm pretty much ready to stop speculating on what happens in that particular sector. Most importantly, we have no idea how much of the West-supplied materiel and ammo the UAF has been squirrelling away for its next counter-offensive. This is essentially a (very morally exhausting ) waiting game for everyone involved RN

[Nicodimas]

The same level antics the west have applied to Russia , China took notice:

“Western countries led by the United States have implemented all-round containment, encirclement and suppression of China, which has brought unprecedented grave challenges to our nation’s development,” Xi was quoted as saying by the official Xinhua News Agency”

A decade ago said Russia will lash out for these policies, China will lash out and is not surprising its backing Russia…

The west is really playing for all the marbles soon. Russia can’t lose as it knows its statehood is at stake. If it loses it could be broken up and divided into lesser powers. (The west will be forced more than likely to grab its nuke assets). That’s why they may very well be backed into a corner with the level of NATO support they have thrown at this conflict..

(The ongoing theory I wonder is does the west have a better shield than we think against strikes.. possibly. )

Not a small confrontation is brewing…China knows its statehood will follow what occurs with Russia. China is also very aware of the fact internal civil wars are its thing too*. The west could force this with a Russia loss.

I once wondered if they will externalize the conflict. Looks like they are succeeding.

This post has been edited by Nicodimas: 07 March 2023 - 08:35 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

'Fox Edits Trump Saying He’d Let Russia Have Some of Ukraine

[...] finally revealed how he personally would have prevented the war. According to Trump, all he needed to do was let Russia “take over” parts of Ukraine.

[...] Saying that Russia was going for the “whole enchilada” with Joe Biden as president [...]

[...] shortly after Trump says, “I could have negotiated,” the audio quickly skips about 30 seconds of speaking time'

Fox News Edits Out Donald Trump Saying He Might’ve Let Russia ‘Take Over’ Parts of Ukraine

lol

'Whole enchilada' sounds like Putin is inspiring Trump to go after Mexico....

Trump Wanted to Invade Mexico

[Mentalist]

Nicodimas, on 07 March 2023 - 08:35 PM, said:

The same level antics the west have applied to Russia , China took notice:

“Western countries led by the United States have implemented all-round containment, encirclement and suppression of China, which has brought unprecedented grave challenges to our nation’s development,” Xi was quoted as saying by the official Xinhua News Agency”

A decade ago said Russia will lash out for these policies, China will lash out and is not surprising its backing Russia…

The west is really playing for all the marbles soon. Russia can’t lose as it knows its statehood is at stake. If it loses it could be broken up and divided into lesser powers. (The west will be forced more than likely to grab its nuke assets). That’s why they may very well be backed into a corner with the level of NATO support they have thrown at this conflict..

(The ongoing theory I wonder is does the west have a better shield than we think against strikes.. possibly. )

Not a small confrontation is brewing…China knows its statehood will follow what occurs with Russia. China is also very aware of the fact internal civil wars are its thing too*. The west could force this with a Russia loss.

I once wondered if they will externalize the conflict. Looks like they are succeeding.

No one is gonna go in and dismantle Russia, no matter how much Ukraine, Poland, Finland and the Baltics may desire it. Primarily because if Russia crumbles, no one can stop China from eating Siberia and becoming self-sufficient with all the natural resources it may desire.

As soon as someone hands Putler's head on the platter and figures out how to restrore 1991 borders, half of EU will line up to restart business as usual with whomever's in charge in Moscow. Only way regional separatism gains any traction is if we see the war drag on for like half a decade, with several million casualties. Or if the moron fires off a nuke, b/c that'll be a game-changer that will make China, India and Turkey do a face heel turn.

[Morgoth]

Yeah, all this conspiracy nonsense is just that. Conspiracy nonsense. The west doesn't give a shit about who runs Russia, or whether Russia is a democracy or not. As long as they continue to trade and sell gass, and keep their invasions to Asian countries, all is good as far as the US and EU are concerned. The idea that this was orchestrated to damage Russia, or that the west wishes to break Russia apart is so far removed from reality it's embarassing.

China doesn't really care either. The heightened rethoric towards the west, and the US in particular, has more to do with the continued increase in American export restrictions towards China, and the American push to get the EU onboard. And of course Taiwan.

This was aimed at Nico btb, I agree with you Ment.

[Werthead]

China may take advantage of the moment to invade Taiwan in the near future, but that would be a mistake. Projections right now are that the US will fight to defend Taiwan and China will lose. The US can put more aircraft in the area than China can, though it would be bloody as hell and the US might lose hundreds of aircraft and several ships. The risk is also uncomfortably high that the war would spiral out of control and bring in Japan, the Koreas, Australia and more. China does not want that. Better for them to see what happens in next year's election and try to cut a deal (if it's Trump) for them to take over Taiwan with a minimum of fuss in return for some kind of grand treaty promising not to go after Japan or South Korea or Australia (who, in that case, would be scrambling hard to develop their own nuclear deterrents ASAP, since their trust in China's word would be limited in extremis).

If China simply held fire for another 10-20 years, they could probably fight the US and simply beat it in a straight conflict over Taiwan (although at a very heavy cost). But Xi probably figures he does not have that long in office or possibly even alive and he may want this done on his watch, or close enough that it's a strong legacy statement.

Back to the actual war at hand, some reports today that Ukraine launched a very limited counter-attack outside Bakhmut that took the Russians by surprise. Possibly some kind of spoiling or delaying action, readying the ground either for withdrawal to try to force the Russians to go more slowly, or convince the Russians that the Ukrainian counter-offensive will actually take place in this sector, immediately retaking the ground lost to the Russians before they can build defences (not a bad idea but it feels a bit counter to Ukrainian strategy so far, which has been to launch spoiling attacks in one area and then hit a weaker area after defenders are transferred in from elsewhere).

It does look like the conditions are developing to a point not far off the September counter-offensive. The depth of Russian reinforcements available for the front seems to have thinned out and Ukraine can now shape the battlefield for a strike of their own design. The question is where along the (now-heavily-fortified front) they can identify a weak spot.

Also rumours that Putin has rejected a call by the army for a second round of mobilisation in favour of a "shadow mobilisation" that will be done as much under the radar as possible, for fear of public blowback. Apparently the latest idea is to recruit from the mentally ill, which I feel is skipping "desperation" and going straight to "admitting we've lost this but will try to string it out by any means necessary."

Georgia looks like it might be about to have its own 2013 moment, which is a distraction Putin does not need right now.

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 08 March 2023 - 09:44 PM, said:

China may take advantage of the moment to invade Taiwan in the near future, but that would be a mistake. Projections right now are that the US will fight to defend Taiwan and China will lose. The US can put more aircraft in the area than China can, though it would be bloody as hell and the US might lose hundreds of aircraft and several ships. The risk is also uncomfortably high that the war would spiral out of control and bring in Japan, the Koreas, Australia and more. China does not want that. Better for them to see what happens in next year's election and try to cut a deal (if it's Trump) for them to take over Taiwan with a minimum of fuss in return for some kind of grand treaty promising not to go after Japan or South Korea or Australia (who, in that case, would be scrambling hard to develop their own nuclear deterrents ASAP, since their trust in China's word would be limited in extremis).

If China simply held fire for another 10-20 years, they could probably fight the US and simply beat it in a straight conflict over Taiwan (although at a very heavy cost). But Xi probably figures he does not have that long in office or possibly even alive and he may want this done on his watch, or close enough that it's a strong legacy statement.

Back to the actual war at hand, some reports today that Ukraine launched a very limited counter-attack outside Bakhmut that took the Russians by surprise. Possibly some kind of spoiling or delaying action, readying the ground either for withdrawal to try to force the Russians to go more slowly, or convince the Russians that the Ukrainian counter-offensive will actually take place in this sector, immediately retaking the ground lost to the Russians before they can build defences (not a bad idea but it feels a bit counter to Ukrainian strategy so far, which has been to launch spoiling attacks in one area and then hit a weaker area after defenders are transferred in from elsewhere).

It does look like the conditions are developing to a point not far off the September counter-offensive. The depth of Russian reinforcements available for the front seems to have thinned out and Ukraine can now shape the battlefield for a strike of their own design. The question is where along the (now-heavily-fortified front) they can identify a weak spot.

Also rumours that Putin has rejected a call by the army for a second round of mobilisation in favour of a "shadow mobilisation" that will be done as much under the radar as possible, for fear of public blowback. Apparently the latest idea is to recruit from the mentally ill, which I feel is skipping "desperation" and going straight to "admitting we've lost this but will try to string it out by any means necessary."

Georgia looks like it might be about to have its own 2013 moment, which is a distraction Putin does not need right now.

Georgian govt backed up, for now at least. When the protesters started building barricades, they figured out they can't hold on.


Ukraine should have 30-40 Leopards by April. The question is, how many mech brigades will be ready by then.

Most of the shaping ops seem to still be taking place at Volnovakha and Tokmak. We'll see.

[Werthead]

Current estimates of Russian losses are 156,990 KIA, which is an increase of 30,000 in about three months. That's more than were killed in the entirety of the 1979-89 Soviet-Afghan War (the 30,000, that is, we passed that in the Ukrainian conflict overall somewhere around Month 1).

The situation is far worse with regards to Russia's supply of tanks, with some estimates that one-third of Russia's entire vaguely-usable tank formations have been destroyed, including most of its front-line T-90 models and variants, and vast numbers of its solid T-72s. Its IFV reserve has also been depleted massively.

Even if Russia successfully undertook another mobilisation round, it's highly questionable if they have enough material to equip them with, or if they could afford to take the time to train them even half-properly (whilst the next Ukrainian counter-offensive was busy reversing the gains of the last offensive).

This is why Russia is trying to get China to supply them with weapons and why the US and its allies are making it clear that China cannot do that without triggering a massive sanctions regime and trade war. And it's very lucky for the US and its allies that China's economy is in a such a comparatively weak spot right now, otherwise that might not have been effective. I suspect Chinese generals are also making very forceful arguments that sending comparatively far more modern equipment to Russia will be a waste of time since the Russians are too inept to use it properly and it will just be wasted, plus anything they send to Russia now might be needed in the not-too-distant future for any possible operation against Taiwan.

Russian partisans have apparently burned an Su-27 combat aircraft at Artyom near Vladivostok. Unclear if it an active aircraft or a grounded one, but interesting move since it happened right on the other side of Russia.

[Macros]

Partisans in Belarus apparently drone bombed a grounded sly plane, anti tyrant sentiment on the up there too, if the guardian is to be believed

[Mentalist]

Macros, on 11 March 2023 - 07:11 AM, said:

Partisans in Belarus apparently drone bombed a grounded sly plane, anti tyrant sentiment on the up there too, if the guardian is to be believed

Luka himself confirmed the bombing took place and the A-50 sustained "minor damage"

So minor that it had to be taken to Taganrog factory to be repaired (some Russian osinters called the plant and they confirmed it's there, lol )

[Werthead]

TIL that Gazprom, an energy company, have formed their own mercenary company. And Shoigu has his own private mercenary company. And at this rate, the cleaners in the Kremlin will each have their own mercenary companies.

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 13 March 2023 - 10:54 PM, said:

TIL that Gazprom, an energy company, have formed their own mercenary company. And Shoigu has his own private mercenary company. And at this rate, the cleaners in the Kremlin will each have their own mercenary companies.

Moscow Metro was recruiting for its own little "security force".

The words "Time of Troubles 2.0" are certainly on a lot of people's minds right now.