[Werthead]

America has a few *thousand* Abrams it could spare. There's that crazy thing they where the tank-building factories kept churning out tanks for years and years so as not to lay anyone off (an unpopular political move in those areas), and newly-built Abrams rolled out and basically went straight into storage. Reactivating them and bringing them up to speed would be quite an investment, but obviously far faster than building them from scratch.

This is probably the reason Germany went to such lengths to get the USA on board, because whilst a couple hundred Leopards and Challengers can be sent to Ukraine short-term, if they need long-term armoured support, there's no real alternative to the Abrams, especially as Germany is going to need to restock their own Leopard supply and bring up much of the rest of Europe to a reasonable level as well (since Russia had considerably more tanks in service than the UK, France, Germany, Italy and Poland combined at the start of the war, although Ukraine has gone some way to eradicating that advantage).

I also don't think Ukraine would bombard Russian cities willy-nilly, but there's certainly a grey area in hitting munitions stockpiles and staging areas on Russian soil. There were fears for a while of a renewed Russian push from Belgorod, so Ukraine hit Russian staging areas and arsenals all around Belgorod for weeks on end, effectively ending that threat (at that time, any way).

[Mentalist]

Macros, on 03 February 2023 - 11:05 PM, said:

Let's all hope Ukraine doesn't bombard any Russian cities.

They have the moral high ground over Putin all day long, dropping bombs into Russia will just give him actual willing recruits.

Also, shelling civilian centers, fuck no

In other news there's a ton of Leopard 1s rolling about Europe and Germany has finally okd them to be snapped up and shipped to Ukraine

There's been multiple "explosions and fires" in the bordering Russian regions- typically taking place around fuel, and/or concentrations of military hardware. the first tactical missile hit a Russian airbase in Rostov oblast' sometime in early March 2022.

The real challenge will be when UAF retake S kherson Oblast and approach the administrative border w/ Crimea.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 04 February 2023 - 09:31 PM

[Werthead]

Russia is apparently dumping the bodies of killed soldiers in garbage sites or just left near cemeteries. So far reported in Belgorod, Cheliabinsk and Zlaotust.

[Werthead]

Vuhledar is showing up an interesting issue. Apparently the use of conscripts and convicts on that front has been terminated in the last few weeks and Russian regular forces, especially their few remaining elite marine formations, have been put into the battle.

However, they've been sent in in exactly the same way as the conscripts and convicts were, massed human-wave attacks against heavily fortified positions. Most bizarrely, they're even attacking at the same time each day. Reportedly Ukrainian artillery has zeroed their axis of advance and inflicted hideous casualties on them. And these units can't sustain those casualties, those troops have years and years of training and in some cases experience in Syria and in the previous fighting in Donbas. You can't waste them like that. Sounds like a lot of fury at the tactic on Russia media channels.

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 07 February 2023 - 11:06 PM, said:

Vuhledar is showing up an interesting issue. Apparently the use of conscripts and convicts on that front has been terminated in the last few weeks and Russian regular forces, especially their few remaining elite marine formations, have been put into the battle.

However, they've been sent in in exactly the same way as the conscripts and convicts were, massed human-wave attacks against heavily fortified positions. Most bizarrely, they're even attacking at the same time each day. Reportedly Ukrainian artillery has zeroed their axis of advance and inflicted hideous casualties on them. And these units can't sustain those casualties, those troops have years and years of training and in some cases experience in Syria and in the previous fighting in Donbas. You can't waste them like that. Sounds like a lot of fury at the tactic on Russia media channels.

Sounds like there's a lovely orc commander on that sector who feels he MUST get results somehow, so he's just throwing everything to see what sticks.

UAF's been packing away a ton of armor in that area.

[Werthead]

Apparently Wagner has run into a recruiting problem. Prisoners in Russia's prisons have been hearing back from some of their friends on the front, and around Bakhmut some of those battalions have experienced 70% or more fatalities. This is dissuading them from signing up.

Pretty detailed account of the fighting around Vuhledar this week.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 09 February 2023 - 08:43 PM

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 09 February 2023 - 06:38 PM, said:

Apparently Wagner has run into a recruiting problem. Prisoners in Russia's prisons have been hearing back from some of their friends on the front, and around Bakhmut some of those battalions have experienced 70% or more fatalities. This is dissuading them from signing up.

Pretty detailed account of the fighting around Vuhledar this week.

Bear in mind, Prigozhin's statement would be aimed at domestic audience first and foremost His narrative is that the MoD barred him from recruiting more, and that's largely because the MoD is looking at the convicts as their own mobilization resource.

This could be another round in the turf war b/w Prigozhin vs Shoigu & co.

[Werthead]

Mentalist, on 09 February 2023 - 10:05 PM, said:

Bear in mind, Prigozhin's statement would be aimed at domestic audience first and foremost His narrative is that the MoD barred him from recruiting more, and that's largely because the MoD is looking at the convicts as their own mobilization resource.

This could be another round in the turf war b/w Prigozhin vs Shoigu & co.

Yup, there's been some confused reporting that Wagner recruits and prisoners came off the line in Bakhmut and regular army units replaced them and hence are now having more success (albeit with the exact same tactics), whilst at Vuhledar Wager recruits went into the line and that's why they're getting ground into powder. Possibly Gerasimov and Shoigu fighting back in the PR war. Although the reality of who's where on the ground seems to be a bit confused at the moment (interesting that the same might be true of Ukraine, there's some heavy veteran units at Vuhledar but others seem to be MIA, with rumours of a Ukrainian counter-offensive gathering pace somewhere else, although that's been reported for months now).

[Werthead]

Some reporting that Prigozhin, Kadyrov and Surovikin's attempt to oust Shoigu and maybe Gerasimov has been defeated. Putin doesn't have too strong a sense of loyalty, but Shoigu has been his right-hand guy for decades on end and Putin considers his loyalty unimpeachable (even if his competence in military matters is questionable). Also, Prigozhin has definitely been getting too big for his boots in his recent PR campaign. Demoting Surovikin and reorienting Prigozhin's Wagner formations in favour of regular Russian units - which do seem to be making headway (if incredibly slowly and costly) around Bakhmut - seems to be Putin's rebuke of their complaining.

Late last year they had Putin's ear and encouraged him to take a more aggressive line which so far looks like it's achieved absolutely nothing. Gerasimov favours the tactic of moving Russian troops onto prepared defensive positions which the Ukrainians find very hard to break without more airpower and armoured power, which is the only Russian tactic which has really given the Ukrainians big problems recently.

Amusingly, it sounds like the USA's designation of Wagner as a terrorist organisation might give Russia an excuse to downplay and demote Prigozhin, and redirect Wagner's recruitment tactics into the regular army.

Putin really needs to address Kadyrov. The guy has played some kind of ludicrous dance in this war to keep Chechens from dying in vast numbers and he's clearly been building up and reinforcing his own forces so they can be deployed either to Ukraine to take part in a victory dance (increasingly unlikely), make a bold move on Moscow in the event of Putin's death or disposal (possible but not imminent), or securing independence for Chechnya if everything else collapses. Forcing him to actually pick a side might be the next logical move for Putin. "Logic" from the perspective of the insane internal court politics in the Kremlin, of course.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 11 February 2023 - 06:54 PM

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 10 February 2023 - 08:19 PM, said:

Mentalist, on 09 February 2023 - 10:05 PM, said:

Bear in mind, Prigozhin's statement would be aimed at domestic audience first and foremost His narrative is that the MoD barred him from recruiting more, and that's largely because the MoD is looking at the convicts as their own mobilization resource.

This could be another round in the turf war b/w Prigozhin vs Shoigu & co.

Yup, there's been some confused reporting that Wagner recruits and prisoners came off the line in Bakhmut and regular army units replaced them and hence are now having more success (albeit with the exact same tactics), whilst at Vuhledar Wager recruits went into the line and that's why they're getting ground into powder. Possibly Gerasimov and Shoigu fighting back in the PR war. Although the reality of who's where on the ground seems to be a bit confused at the moment (interesting that the same might be true of Ukraine, there's some heavy veteran units at Vuhledar but others seem to be MIA, with rumours of a Ukrainian counter-offensive gathering pace somewhere else, although that's been reported for months now).

I haven't seen any Russian sources about Wagner @ Vuhledar. It's mostly Far Eastern units there.

Wagner got shredded around Bakhmut, so now some of the VDV are plugging the holes. They seem fairly stalled south of the city, though. to the N, by the M-03 highway, things are more complicated.

[Werthead]

Mentalist, on 11 February 2023 - 10:56 PM, said:

[I haven't seen any Russian sources about Wagner @ Vuhledar. It's mostly Far Eastern units there.

Wagner got shredded around Bakhmut, so now some of the VDV are plugging the holes. They seem fairly stalled south of the city, though. to the N, by the M-03 highway, things are more complicated.

Yeah, brainfart on my part there.

BBC reporting Russian deaths have reached an average of 824 per day, and on some individual days this crested 1,000 per day for the first time since the initial fortnight of the invasion.

Also Russian milibloggers seem to think that the Vuhledar effort may have culminated already and resources will be focused more on the Bakhmut front almost exclusively. Some scathing commentary that Russia is unable to conduct a cohesive offensive along the entire front in Donbas alone.

Kadyrov, meanwhile, has publicly urged for Russia to consider an invasion of Poland.

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 12 February 2023 - 06:13 PM, said:

Mentalist, on 11 February 2023 - 10:56 PM, said:

[I haven't seen any Russian sources about Wagner @ Vuhledar. It's mostly Far Eastern units there.

Wagner got shredded around Bakhmut, so now some of the VDV are plugging the holes. They seem fairly stalled south of the city, though. to the N, by the M-03 highway, things are more complicated.

Yeah, brainfart on my part there.

BBC reporting Russian deaths have reached an average of 824 per day, and on some individual days this crested 1,000 per day for the first time since the initial fortnight of the invasion.

Also Russian milibloggers seem to think that the Vuhledar effort may have culminated already and resources will be focused more on the Bakhmut front almost exclusively. Some scathing commentary that Russia is unable to conduct a cohesive offensive along the entire front in Donbas alone.

Kadyrov, meanwhile, has publicly urged for Russia to consider an invasion of Poland.

People really need to stop emphasizing that.

Ukraine sponsored a number of "representatives of Russian colonial peoples" to speak at the EU parliament in a conference re: how will Russia be split among the decolonized people after its defeat.

In turn, Kadyrov called on the Silesian peoples in Poland (some believe Silesian is a dialect of Polish, others that it's a separate Western Slavic language; there is a small bunch of enthusiasts for Silesian independence, who are obviously not viewed well by Warsaw) to hold an independence Referendum and secede- and called on Moscow to be the guarantors of said independce.

I mean, this is part of the same line where Russia encourages Catalan separatism in Spain, or Veneto's aspirations in Italy. Their goal is to sow confusion and undermine Western unity. And in this particular case, Kadyrov is mirroring the threats being levied against Russia.

He is also probably compensating for his earlier gaffe, where he accused the West of idling when Moscow bombed Chechnya when it was fighting for independence, but now hypocritically supporting other nations' struggle for independence.
In which he has a point, but he also didn't realize that he was outing himself as a separatist, instead of "Putler's most loyal footman". So he had to make up for this by cribbing from Dimon's drunken rambles

[Chance]

Werthead, on 12 February 2023 - 06:13 PM, said:

BBC reporting Russian deaths have reached an average of 824 per day, and on some individual days this crested 1,000 per day for the first time since the initial fortnight of the invasion.

Which is frankly an insane amount for a modern war, it means the mobilized forces would be exhausted in probably less then 200 days, since death's are likely matched but more likely exceeded by non-death casualties.

Werthead, on 12 February 2023 - 06:13 PM, said:

Kadyrov, meanwhile, has publicly urged for Russia to consider an invasion of Poland.

Why have most of the Russian dudes lost all their sanity? Seems a bit of a mirror to the nazi germany.

[Werthead]

Three Russian planes overflying Kaliningrad Oblast "drifted" into Polish airspace, but were turned back by two Dutch F-35s on rapid response.

Slight moment of tension there that could have blown up larger if anyone had made bad decisions.

[Werthead]

The British defence secretary suggested today that 97% of the entire current Russian military is currently committed to the Ukrainian theatre.

What he means by that exactly is unclear, presumably it excludes border guards, air force troops assigned to Kaliningrad, naval personnel in Vladivostok and Murmansk etc.

Over 50% of all Russian tanks in existence have been destroyed or crippled in the conflict to date.

He also suggested that the entire Russian military's combat effectiveness has been degraded by around 60%, indicating that Russia is, conventionally, half as militarily strong as it was a year ago.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 15 February 2023 - 10:44 PM

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 15 February 2023 - 09:43 PM, said:

The British defence secretary suggested today that 97% of the entire current Russian military is currently committed to the Ukrainian theatre.

What he means by that exactly is unclear, presumably it excludes border guards, air force troops assigned to Kaliningrad, naval personnel in Vladivostok and Murmansk etc.

Over 50% of all Russian tanks in existence have been destroyed or crippled in the conflict to date.

He also suggested that the entire Russian military's combat effectiveness has been degraded by around 60%, indicating that Russia is, conventionally, half as militarily strong as it was a year ago.

Pacific Navy ship crews are being used to replenish the "Marine Infantry" ranks of the 155th brigade near Vuhledar. Multiple such "Marines" were taken prisoner in the past week.

Apparently Norway and Finlad are reporting that about 80% of the troops from the Kola peninsula (the location of Russia's primary nuclear bases in Europe) were shipped off to the frontlines. Basically the border and main facities (airbases and the naval base in Severovins'k) are manned by a skeleton crew.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 16 February 2023 - 06:16 AM

[Werthead]

There'll be duelling speeches next week from Biden and Putin, the former confirming western support for Ukraine in the long haul. Putin's speech is expected to focus on the need to restructure parts of the economy and to prepare Russians for further rounds of mobilisation.

Reportedly Russian college and university students, who were exempted from the last round of mobilisation, are being told they will not be in the future, and people who sign up voluntarily will get better conditions, training and pay rather than those who wait until they are forced into the role.

It looks like the first Leopard tanks could be in Ukraine more quickly that previously speculated, in weeks rather than months.

Lookis like the Ukrainians are continuing to heavily negotiate about getting planes despite them being ruled out (in the short term), but this might be a smokescreen for them to get GLSDB (more quickly, the US is reassigning stockpiles they had built up from Afghanistan) and maybe ATACMS. Some countries are also discussing cruise missiles (!) with the possibility that there'll be a political argument and that idea will be shot down, after Russia freaks about it, leaving Ukraine with significantly enhanced capabilities, just not the stuff Russia freaks out over and starts threatening WW3 over.

But it looks like the idea is that by the end of March, Ukraine should have GLSDB, additional AA, with ATACMS on the discussion board and at least some Leopards (and fighters and cruise missiles on the board if Russia tries to escalate yet further, later on). Whether that's enough alongside existing stocks for their next counter-offensive remains to be seen.

Belarus has also agreed to allow the Russian military to use its factories for weapons and ammunition production. Lukachenko continuing to tapdance his way around going all-in with Putin into the conflict, but it feels like his leash is being shortened.

[Mentalist]

The first French not-tankes were reportedly on their way to UA this week.

it would make sense that the Challengers should be next (following the pattern of announced help). Followed by US Bradleys and Strykers, and then Leopards.

In theory, by mid-April UAF should have sufficient tech to equip new offensive units to begin a counter-offensive op.

[Werthead]

The Russians seem to have lost the battle at Vuhledar. Two-thirds of the forces attacking the town seem to have been rendered combat-ineffective whilst Ukrainian defenders seem to have weathered the storm well. The Russians will need to bring up a lot more reinforcements.

As well as "get 30 vehicles destroyed in one push, logjamming the streets and blocking everyone for enemy artillery," the Russians added, "advance a TOS-1 thermobaric missile system in plain sight towards the enemy who can blow it up like a napalm smart bomb" to their list of tactics.

Quote

Desperate to break through Ukrainian defenses around Vuhledar, a major strongpoint in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region, the Russian army deployed at least one of its precious TOS-1A thermobaric rocket launchers.

The Ukrainians blew it up. Dramatically. A TOS-1A is a 24-pack of 220-millimeter “flamethrowing” rockets mounted on a tank chassis. Hit a TOS-1A, and it’s likely to explode in a billowing fireball and scatter flame and rocket-parts in all directions.

That’s exactly what happened on or before Valentine’s Day, when the Ukrainian army’s 72nd Mechanized Brigade struck a TOS-1A outside Vuhledar. As Ukrainian cameras recorded from the sky and the ground, the Russian launcher burst like a giant firework.

The 72nd Mechanized Brigade’s destruction of the TOS-1A may have thwarted yet another Russian assault on Vuhledar, a town with a pre-war population of just 14,000 that lies a couple of miles north of Russian-held Pavlivka, 25 miles southwest of Donetsk in the Donbas region.

Along with Bakhmut and the free towns near Russian-held Kreminna, Vuhledar is one of the main targets of Russia’s ongoing winter offensive. None of the attacks are making much progress, but the assault on Vuhledar might be the most disastrous for the Russians.

In just one bloody, chaotic day two weeks ago, the Russians lost 30 or more armored vehicles around Vuhledar. Their losses only deepened in the following days. The Russians have deployed at least three brigades around Vuhledar, and it seems two of them—the 40th and 155th Naval Infantry Brigades—are on the edge of combat-ineffectiveness.

Ukrainian mines—buried along the main approaches to Vuhledar and also scattered from above by special, American-made artillery shells—have inflicted many of the casualties.

But for the Russians, merely crossing the minefield isn’t enough. On the far side of the mines, the Ukrainians have dug earthworks and built bunkers. If the Russians are acting rationally, it was these fortifications the TOS-1A was targeting on or before Valentine’s Day.

Thermobaric munitions such as the TOS-1A fires are uniquely destructive. They burst over their targets and spread a fuel vapor before exploding. The blast ignites the fuel and creates a pressure wave that’s twice as powerful as that from a conventional artillery shell.

The Russians deployed the basic TOS-1—a less heavily-armored precursor of the current TOS-1A with 30 rockets instead of 24—in combat in Afghanistan’s defiant Panjshir Valley in the 1980s and reportedly again in Chechnya in 2000, both times to devastating effect. Later, the Russian, Syrian and Iraqi armies used TOS-1As against rebels and militants. Azerbaijan apparently deployed TOS-1As in its brief, bloody campaign against Armenia in 2020.

For the current war, the Russians seem to have deployed to Ukraine the majority of their roughly 50 TOS-1As. The Ukrainians have destroyed at least one of the 45-ton launchers and captured four others—and have fired at least one captured launcher back at the Russians. It’s unclear exactly how many TOS-1As the Russians have left. Regardless, they were willing to risk at least one of the precious vehicles escalating their assault on Vuhledar. A TOS-1A can cost up to $7 million to build.

After losing scores of tanks and fighting vehicles and potentially hundreds of troops trying to cross that minefield and break the Ukrainian defenses around Vuhledar, the Russians clearly are getting desperate. And maybe a bit sloppy.

The TOS-1A is a powerful weapon, but a vulnerable one. Its unwieldy rockets range just two miles, meaning a launcher must close to within range of enemy tank guns before it can open fire. It’s a dangerous proposition for the launcher’s three-person crew.

In Soviet doctrine, a TOS-1 deploys with tanks as escorts. “Doctrinally, the TOS-1 was envisioned to decimate a large area, by charging ahead, while under the protection of tanks, launching its rockets in rapid succession (all [24 or] 30 rockets in 7.5 seconds), and then returning to the rear for rearmament and redeployment,” Grau and Charles Bartles explained in their definitive The Russian Way of War.

It’s not clear the Russians are sticking to that doctrine. It seems there were no escorting tanks in sight when the Ukrainians blew up that TOS-1A outside Vuhledar. Which, of course, might be why the Ukrainians were able to hit the thermobaric launcher.

[Mentalist]

So Putler's delayed speech to the Fed Council had nothing of any particular meaning. Except for the overall message of "buckle up, cuz no one's getting off this ride any time soon"

Compared to Biden's unannounced appearance in Kyiv yest, it all looked quite weak.

It seems increasingly unlikely that the orcs will secure Bakhmut by the 1 year mark, IR even by the end of the month. With the thaw likely coming in mid-March, we're gonna get a bit of a lull as UA scrambles to get as many new units fully equipped as possible in anticipation of the late spring and summer campaign.