[cerveza_fiesta]

Mentalist, on 07 May 2014 - 10:54 PM, said:

CF, once again, I'm writing all this from T-dot. it's just I spend most my waking hours glued to my smartphone for news updates, and I have Internet TV working in the background whilst I'm at work,

Oh, great. I missed that entirely. Good to know. What news source do you use to keep up with things over there then? Local news?

[Mentalist]

cerveza_fiesta, on 08 May 2014 - 01:00 PM, said:

Mentalist, on 07 May 2014 - 10:54 PM, said:

CF, once again, I'm writing all this from T-dot. it's just I spend most my waking hours glued to my smartphone for news updates, and I have Internet TV working in the background whilst I'm at work,

Oh, great. I missed that entirely. Good to know. What news source do you use to keep up with things over there then? Local news?

Yeah, a bunch of Uki sources. one of them ( www.pravda.com.ua )has an english version, I believe--http://en.pravda.com.ua/ for the most important news. They generally confirm their news before publishing, which is why I like them.

I use some other supplementary sources, as well as HromadskeTV (not currently available in English. The govt is planning to launch an English speaking news channel to combat Russia Today's propaganda worldwide). Majority of the stuff is in Russian, though. Also there's social media, which all cross-pollinates. The frontpage of Pravda has a tweet-feed, which is about 40% in English that highlights the key news

[Mentalist]

Ah, the tragicomedy continues (weekend news summary for those interested)

Well, there are some good news, some bad news, and some "I'm not exactly sure how to look at this" news.

So, the first really, really good news: Victory Day went well. The only real troubles were in Mariupol, where a firefight between terorists on one side and police and National guard on the other led to a number of deaths. But the mass provocations we were afraid of didn't happen, which is in itself the best news.

The ministry of interior is reporting new successes in the anti-terrorist operation around Slov'yansk. these are obviously to be taken with a grain of salt, but at the very least they haven't yielded any positions, and they've managed to repel the terrorists' attemp to recapture the Slov'yansk TV tower Sunday morning.

The bad news: Ukraine DID end up losing Mariupol. because God knows why, but Friday night the National giuard ended up leaving the city. And thus allowed the separatist to show their true colours.

(Here we need to make a small historic aside. You see, the population of these two regions is rather special. It is by far THE most criminalized area of Ukraine. let me put it this way: Donetsk oblast has about 5 million people. of hese roughly 1.2 MILLION are ex cons. Subtract number of children, make a correction for the number of women (of whom there's generally more, but who are generally far less frequent in the Soviet/Ukrainian penal system), and what you get is that roughly every ssecond or third adult male resident of Donbass did time. This very fact, coupled with their inclination to vote for some criminal's pocket candidates at every single election is the biggest reason why there's a strong sentiment in the rest of the country to "let Donbass go".)

So anyways, yeah. National guard pulled out. Their reasoning was: our barracks are close to a residential area. if we get attacked, we can't shoot back for fear of civilian casualties. and the abovementioned people with criminal backgrounds go absolutely nuts. looting ensues, robberies happen. The mayor flees the city, city council is unavailable, police is unreachable. welcome to anarchy. For the record, in the 3.3 months of protests in Kyyiv, the only businesses that suffered damages were a few storefronts on Hrushevsky street due to a fire started during a Molotov-fueled standoff betwee protesters and riot police. When the mass murders started in Kyiv in February, Maydan supporters in the West of the country stormed and burned down police stations, security buildings and prosecution offices. However, not a single business was harmed, and the very next night the police was patrolling the streets again along with maydan supporters in joint patrols.

The fact that the central govt was unable to uphold law and order, coupled with Russian propaganda about a "massacre of peaceful protesters" have done a lot to quckly shift public opinion in Mariupol. and this leads us to the third category of news.

The news I don't know how to feel about: the pseudo-referenda that took place on the Donbass today. Although there were 4 sumultaneous plebiscites taking place in the area, only 2 are really woth mentioning. The first is the DNR referendum which asked the people a yes or no question about whether they support the declaration of sovereignty of the People's Republic of Donetsk/Luhansk. It was held contrary to the constitution, the polling stations were set up by seizing polling stations (usually in schools) that were designated for parliamentary/presidential elections. DNR organizers were denied access tot he voter registry, so their lists were incomplete and prone to on the fly adjustments. There were no official observbers, obviously though there are stories from plenty of journalists, including foreign ones, who'd vote multiple times at different stations.
To say that the DNR referendum is a joke is to say nothing. suffice it to say, army and national guard have intercepted a few cars heading out to polling stations, that already contained thousands of pre-filled ballots. The ballots were made on a photocopier, they've had no watermarks and no numbers, so essentially there's absolutely no way to prove anything. And, as cherry on top of the cake, merely 2 hours after the polls closed, DNR gave out "preliminary results", giving the idea of independence a landslide victory of... 89%. Which absolutely blood hilarious because merely few days earlier the SBU made public an intercept of one of DNR's officials' conversation with a leader of a Russian radical organization in Moscow, in which th eDNR official complained that the Sunday referendum wasn't "ready" yet. To which hewas given instructions to draw the reight result". The kicker? a phrase "well, don't write 99%... say 89% said "yes". Yeah, stick with 89". No comment.

It's also noteworthy that the number of polling stations was abysmally small, which led to huge crowds at each, which allowed the media a chance to spin it a "mass expression of people's wishes". The focus of media attention was once again Mariupol, where Russian TV painted a pretty picture of people voting for independence in order to deal with the lawlessness. it helped that the owner of the biggest factories in the cities ordered his employees to take part in the referendum. In other parts of Donbass, separatists would bring ballots and boxes to working factories demanding the workers vote, and they would threaten to set the refusing factories on fire to make them comply.

The second plebiscite of note (called "referendum" because people like that word), was the "Referendum for peace, order and unity". reportedly organized under the auspices of the oligarch Kolomoyskyy, who is the new governor of Dnipropetrovsk oblast, the gist of the referendum was that people of Donbass who don't want anarchy that comes with separatists, should express their support to the idea of having Donbass be included as part of the Dnipropetrovsk oblast. This plebiscite followed the existing laws, and thus its organizers had full access to voters lists. Their ballots were watermarked, although they've used travelling polling stations in order to stay mobile, and they weren't too active in DNR-held regions. The focus was primarily on the agrarian regions, where DNR has next to no support.

This second referendum also boasts a turnout of about 2.5 million voters, and the results will be made public tomorrow.

The day was marred with a few more deaths: in Krasnoarmiysk, aregion centre wiothin Donetsk oblast, which is close to Dnipropetrovsk oblast, a number of armed men in camo drove into town, taking control of the city council and interrupting the DNR referendum taking place. They identified themselves as Self-Defense batallion "Dnipro", which is a new volunteer militia unit out of Dnipropetrovsk oblast and reputedly funded and recruited by Kolomoysky himself. The supporters of separatists weren't happy wityh their presence. An altercation occured, in which one of these "militia" was approached by a supposedly unarmed protester, who grabbed his gun (alternative reports suggest that i) the man was drunk, and ii) he was actually armed with a knife). I cant confirm either, but those are some of the things being said to comment what happened), and the militia man opened fire, shooting the offender in the head and killing him. Soon after, the militia packed up and left. The dnipropetrovs administration is denying that their guys had anythign to do with this, and I don't know if that's true. In any case, chalk up another one to the growing casualties list.


Looking at the situation for a brief analysis, it looks like Kolomoyskyy has decided to grab the agrarian regions of Donbass, as the most pro-Unit, and also economically self-sufficient. As proof of this there is today's statement from his right-hand man that the volunteer militia batallion "Dnipro", heeding to the requests of its residents will begin patrolling the 4 regions of the dDonetsk oblast that border Dnipropetrovsk. These are also the regions that were the biggest focus of the "Referendum for peace, order and unity" that took place today. the same steps will proabably be taken towards the agrarian noth regions of Luhansk oblast.

It's also safe to speculate that his interests include Mariupol, which is why "Dnipro" was there along with the National Guard on Friday and took part in the shootouts around the police station. That will prove a huge challenge, however, because Mariupol is wholly owned by Kolomoyskyy's rival Akhmetov--and he has staken steps top counter this, announcing a formation of "Metllurgists' patrols"--bringing in the emplyees of his factories to patrol the streets and prevent further looting. The battle for the hearts and minds of Mariupol will be a tough one. But Kolomoyskyy got an ace up his sleeve--metallurgy reqires an insane amount of water. this water comes from the Dnipro river along a whole system of canals, designed exclusively to give Donbass more water for metallurgy. Kolomoyskyy controls the pumps that feed those canals.

There's also the issue of Slov'yansk, which is a stubborn centr of the terrorists, where the worst atrocities happen, where the most hostages are taken and where the fighting is the fiercest (as i'm writing this, there are tweets about a new attack in the area (5 AM there right now) including artillery fire.). For all the problems it's causing, Slov'yansk also finds itself sitting on top of newly discovered shale gas deposits--which may become the key to Ukraine's energy independence from Russia. which certainly makes it worth fighting for. I suspect (and this is just my opinion) that Russia proper's hand is most obvious in Slov'yansk for this very reason, whereas protests, takeovers and riots elsewhere can be more directly linked to Akhmetov himself.

The referenda of today are pretty meaningless in the long run, but the one ran by Kolomoyskyy is very useful, because it provides a great counter to the DNR one. Essentially, the 2 will "cancel each other out", leading to maintenance of the status quo. Which isn't terrible if the alternative is full out war. Personally, I see them as becoming grounds to carve up Donbassbefore cutting loose the fanatically pro-Russian part. It is far from an ideal solution, and I feel terrible for the non-pro-Russians that are gonna get stuck on the wrong side.

[Garak]

I saw the poll results yesterday evening and when I read the 89% bit all I thought was "Yeah, like they even bothered to count". Ugh, this whole thing stinks.

And on Sunday we had a little weird bit with Russia. The Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitri Rogozin tweeted that "Upon US request, Romania has closed its airspace for my plane. Ukraine doesn't allow me to pass through again. Next time I'll fly on board TU-160." Our Ministry of Foreign Affairs didn't exactly like hearing this - joking about using bombers while the situation in Ukraine is what it is, it's just not done. So they asked the Russian Foreign Ministry, to provide public clarification whether the statements quoted from Deputy Prime Minister Rogozin are the official position of the Russian Federation with regard to Romania as a Member State of the EU and NATO. At the same time the Ministry of Foreign Affairs reminds that Romania has unequivocally supported the sanctions regime instated by the European Union with respect to actions that undermine or threaten Ukraine's territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence. I haven't heard if there was a reply of any sort - other than Rogozin tweeting again that Russia will show Romania what they think of us. Oh and throwing around vague threats that if the Republic of Moldova get's closer ties to the EU, there will be "grave consequences for them".

However I read that the reason he was originally in the area was to get some signed petitions from Transnistria, petitions to join Russia of course. Apparently he was kinda pissed because the Moldavian authorities confiscated the petitions in order to study them "and check if they respect current legislation".

Edit: So Traian Basescu (our president) commented that someone should check how much vodka Rogozin had in his system at the time he posted that TU-160 comment. About two hours ago Rogozin tweeted yet again "Wondering how many glasses Basescu emptied for courage before closing Romanian airspace for him". Man, what is it with this guy?

This post has been edited by Garak: 12 May 2014 - 08:33 AM

[Mentalist]

Garak, on 12 May 2014 - 07:56 AM, said:

I saw the poll results yesterday evening and when I read the 89% bit all I thought was "Yeah, like they even bothered to count". Ugh, this whole thing stinks.

And on Sunday we had a little weird bit with Russia. The Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitri Rogozin tweeted that "Upon US request, Romania has closed its airspace for my plane. Ukraine doesn't allow me to pass through again. Next time I'll fly on board TU-160." Our Ministry of Foreign Affairs didn't exactly like hearing this - joking about using bombers while the situation in Ukraine is what it is, it's just not done. So they asked the Russian Foreign Ministry, to provide public clarification whether the statements quoted from Deputy Prime Minister Rogozin are the official position of the Russian Federation with regard to Romania as a Member State of the EU and NATO. At the same time the Ministry of Foreign Affairs reminds that Romania has unequivocally supported the sanctions regime instated by the European Union with respect to actions that undermine or threaten Ukraine's territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence. I haven't heard if there was a reply of any sort - other than Rogozin tweeting again that Russia will show Romania what they think of us. Oh and throwing around vague threats that if the Republic of Moldova get's closer ties to the EU, there will be "grave consequences for them".

However I read that the reason he was originally in the area was to get some signed petitions from Transnistria, petitions to join Russia of course. Apparently he was kinda pissed because the Moldavian authorities confiscated the petitions in order to study them "and check if they respect current legislation".

Edit: So Traian Basescu (our president) commented that someone should check how much vodka Rogozin had in his system at the time he posted that TU-160 comment. About two hours ago Rogozin tweeted yet again "Wondering how many glasses Basescu emptied for courage before closing Romanian airspace for him". Man, what is it with this guy?

lol. He's a Russian politician. Also, this is Moldova you're speaking about. It's "ancient Russian land". They have full rights to interfere in its internal affairs.

[Garak]

Sadly. Man Russia's annoying me. Living in an ex-communist country, I don't like seeing them throw their weight around nor do I want to see them get closer to our border. Ever since Crimea joined Russia, people around have begun talking about a russian invasion and whatnot (conspiracy theories abound). It doesn't help that Ukraine and Moldova are the only countries between us and Russia.

In other news our president basically declared Rogozin a troll and that he won't be fed any more. Let him say whatever he wants, no one cares.

This post has been edited by Garak: 12 May 2014 - 03:50 PM

[Mentalist]

Garak, on 12 May 2014 - 03:45 PM, said:

Sadly. Man Russia's annoying me. Living in an ex-communist country, I don't like seeing them throw their weight around nor do I want to see them get closer to our border. Ever since Crimea joined Russia, people around have begun talking about a russian invasion and whatnot (conspiracy theories abound). It doesn't help that Ukraine and Moldova are the only countries between us and Russia.

In other news our president basically declared Rogozin a troll and that he won't be fed any more. Let him say whatever he wants, no one cares.

You guys are in NATO, so I don't see an invasion coming your way anytime soon. And I'm glad to hear your pres sticking by our territorial integrity, because from time to time Russian bots love to toss in fakes about how Romania's planning to take Bukovina back.

Russia`s response to the referendum`` is pretty lukewarm, which is good.

On the other hand, the reaction in Donetsk is pretty hilarious. First off, the "people`s governor" Gubarev,who was freed from jail in exchange for the release of 3 SBU officers gave an interview to a Russian newspaper in which he basically admitted that separatists were sponsored by the oligarch Akhmetov. Akhmetov refuted this accusation, and a spokesperson for "his" Party of Regions went on to say that Gubarev was "a fake governor appointed by some beach bums". Its important to note that in Mariupol, Akhmetov ordered his employees of metallurgical factories to patrol the city along with police to prevent any further riots and looting by pro-Russians.

The leadership of DNR proper has denied accusations of being funded by Akhmetov, but went on to say that since thye are now "confirmed by people's choice as the lawful representatives of Donetsk oblast", they will expect Akhmetov to pay taxes to them, and not to Kyyiv. They also went on to invite Russia to take the People's republic of Donetsk the same way they did with Crimea.

While the Donetsk leadership was busy doing that, the alleged Russian GRU officer Strelkov, supposedly the military commander of the Slov'yansk terrorists went on to declare himself "supreme military commander of the People's republic of Donetsk" and declared war on Kyyiv "junta" (in the long-term) and a "counter-terrorist operation" within Donetsk oblast in the short term. Falling under definition of terrorists are Right sector, the National Guard, volunteer milita batallions and all other Ukrainian loyalists. In order to combat these threats, Strelkov ordered that all military, security and police units of Donetsk Oblast pledge allegiance to him, and also he requested Russian military assistance. It's important to note that DNR leadership in Donetsk acknowledged that Strelkov is commander in cheif of DNR's military, but insisted that he does not have the authority to declare wars on DNR's behalf.

In Luhansk things are pretty quiet. given how it's the fief of the current party of regions parliamentary fraction leader Yefremov, the presidium of the oblast Council has asked the Kyyv governmeent to recognise the referendum for the sovereignty of "People's Republic of Luhansk". Aside from this declaration, things remain pretty quiet.

If there's truth to the suggestion that Akhmetov lost control over Donetsk oblast proper and his influence is now confined to Mariupol, it becomes more likely that Ukraine will be able to keep the city. It also points towards a future confrontation between DNR and Akhmetov's personal retinue--which will be a good thing from Kyyiv's perspective. Otherwise, I expect that there will be a redrawn border, containing the separatists to the extreme east regions of the two oblasts, densely populated but eceonomically unprofitable.

Once again, a lot will depend on what Russia does. And its virtually impossible to predict that with any certainty right now.

[Gust Hubb]

DNR = Do Not Resuscitate

[Mentalist]

Gust Hubb, on 13 May 2014 - 02:24 AM, said:

DNR = Do Not Resuscitate

lol. it's a good name. it's also Donetskaya Narodnaya Respublika (Donetsk People's Republic)-which is the abreviation used in all the media I read. There are many suggested less pleasant ways to decypher the name of the newly proclaimed entity as well.

[Garak]

Mentalist, on 12 May 2014 - 08:54 PM, said:

And I'm glad to hear your pres sticking by our territorial integrity, because from time to time Russian bots love to toss in fakes about how Romania's planning to take Bukovina back.

Wow, Russia just loves to make people worry I guess. I can't really say what's going on in the minds of our leaders (other than plans to stuff their pockets and screw us over) but no one here has even mentioned Bukovina in any way, shape or form.

[Mentalist]

Another week ends. This one was relatively quiet. Well, not really. Donbass is slowly turning into a proper slow-burning civil war, as "little black men" are ramping up their own presence in the area.

Although weekends are generally the peak time for separatist activity, the only notable achievent of today is the seizure of the Oblast police HQ in Luhansk. Which really isn't that significant. Those loyal to Ukraine are apprently relocating to a town of Starobilsk in the northern, more agrarian part of the oblast, which has not shown much support for the "referendum" that was held last Sunday.

Basically, it's pretty safe to say that in Luhansk, the Northern regions are pro-unity, the cities and mining towns of the south are pro-separatists. Now, this is not to say that they are the majority in the south, but they are a loud, armed minority. That pretty much does what it wants. There are some reports of Right Sector volunteers starting up a resistance int he south, but nothing too serious yet. The local oligarch Yefremov, who happens to be the current head of the Party of Regions continues his crusade of advocacy for teh "people of the South and East", condemning govt ATO and all efforts to curb the terrorists.

In Donetsk Oblast, things are nowhere near as clear. For starters, the ATO in the Slov'yansk-Kramatorsk region is ramping, up, albeit slowly--after Tuesday reports of an ambush on an armoured column that left 7 Ukrainian soldiers dead, on Wednesday night the same group of terrorists was hunted down-3 were taken alive, the number of terrorist casualties remains undisclosed. In another turned ambush, the Jaguar special purposes unit eliminated about 50 terrorists. In Slovyansk itself the ATO forces have set up a new roadblock blocking the road between Slov'yyansk and a nearby region center Krasnyj Liman, also held by terrorists. The fighting there continues every day, but the ATO is hobbled by the fact that the terrorists continue to use residential districts as their firebases, which makes it impossible for troops to shoot back. That being said, any attempts by terrorists to recapture lost ground on the outskirts proves costly. Unconfirmed insider reports place their total losses at around 200, and their field commanded Babay (the bearded fellow who became a media darling, and is a wanted criminal in Russia) was seriously wounded.

The desperation of the DNR become self-evident yesterday when the "Commander in Chief" of the DNR's armed forces Strelkov (alleged GRU officer) released a video on Youtube in which he shamed the men of Donbass for refusing to take up arms to defend their homeland. According to him, he has not been able to gather even a thousand volunteers. In addition, the bulk of his troops are men well over 40--as he bemoans the fact that youths refuse to volunteer. Also, he has not had any men join up with senior officers' experience. So desperate is he in fact, that he announced he will start taking female combat volunteers.

In the same message he has condemned the rise of crime, looters and marauders. And he threatened oligarchs, essentially saying that they will be made to pay for their lack of support "of the people".

And speaking of oligarchs, the supreme ruler of Donetsk oblast, oligarch Renat Akhmetov, has adressed the people of the Donbass from his own channel. He has outlined the 4 possible futures of the Donbass- 1) return to the current status quo (undesirable, since the current system means all of Donbass' taxes go to teh centre and are then re-distributed back to the regions), 2) Independent DNR or 3) joining Russia -both resulting in incredible sanctions and an econimic suicide for export-oriented industries. Which left scenario 4) - Donbass within a uniteray Ukraine, following a decentralization and constitutional changes. This was seen as huge sign of Akhmetov catiiong his lot with Kyyiv, especially since his metallurgists took to the strteets of Mariupol streets in joint patrols with the local police. The elation was soured, however, by an "accord" signed by the heads of Akhmetov's factories in Mariupol, as well as a number of civic organizations with the representatinves of the DNR "in order to keep the peace in teh city of Mariupol", which was also addressed to Kyyiv, requesting that the military checkpoints on the roads around the city be removed.


Kyyiv responded through the Prosecution-General, which declared both DNR and LNR terrorist organizations, with any person or organization that recognizes them being treated as abetting terrorism. Akhmetov's MetInvest is yet to comment. Since Akhmetov employs about 300k people in the oblast, he's a major player, and he'll have to decisively pick a side soon. Unconfirmed reports also suggest that a general meeting of MetInvest has approved a resolution to allow the may 25th presidential election to take place in those cities that host MetInvest's businesses. How much of a role this will play is yet to be seen, since it looks like Akhmetov has lost at least some control over the DNR (which has begun to publicly denounce him, demanding that he pay taxes to the DNR, and threatening nationalization of oligarch property), but whether that's true or if it's a distancing double-bluff remains to be seen.

And a whole separate kettle of fish are the "little black men"--pro-Unity batallions acting in the area. The name comes as an antithesis to the "polite little green men"-the name given to camo-dressed, armed men that appeared in Crimea and then Donbass and began to seize government buildings and putting up Russian flags. Allegedly, these are "territorial defence battalions of special purposes" under the auspices of the Ministry of the interior. In fact they are volunteer militias, composed in large portion of men with combat and special forces experience, with strong Right Sector ties. There are 3 main units active in the Oblast:

1) "Azov"-based around Mariupol, this is a most obviously Right Sector dominant unit, whose commanding staff is composed of officials from one of the RS' founding organisations. Their scope of activities is limited, and they aren't very public-due to the fact that they are deployed in the epicenter of the influence of Akmetov, whose "volunteer druzhinas" of MetInvest employees are a much more serious force in the area. Nonetheless, "Azov", along with the displace Mariupol National Guard unit that left the city last Saturday, sparking a looting spree are active, manning the checkpoints in the 2 southernmost regions- Pershotravnevyj and Novoazovskyj- which straddle a border highway to Taganrog and Rostov in Russia and make up all of Donetsk Oblast's Azov Sea coast--and also guard the main roads into Zaporizhya oblast.

2) "Donbass"--formed by a reserve officer Semenchenko, this battalion has been the most active, and also seems the most independent (although Right Sector claims some credit for their successes). This week it has publicly seized control over one of the Westmost regions of the oblast centred around the town of Velyki Novoselky. The battalion has arrested local separatist in the area, "disciplined" the local police that declared for the DNR, ran out all of the local party of Regions functionaries and a local police chief, who all backed up the DNR. Following that "Donbass" organized a volunteer self-defense out of pro-unity locals to uphold order and oversee the local police, and then intercepted a group of separatists sent out of Donetsk to recapture the region. Battalion suffered no casualties, dispersing and capturing a number of separatists and a large number of weapons and ammunition. in the upcoming week, having secured teh region's pro-Ukrainian administration Semenchenko is planning to move onto one of the neighboiring regions.

3) Last, but not least is the "Dnepr / Dnipro" batallion. Based out of Dnipropetrovsk and existing under the auspices of that oblasts' oligarch governor Kolomoyskyy, these guys have been active in the regions neighboring the Dnipropetrovsk oblast. There have been numerous messages ourt of Dnipropetrovsk expressing interest in the 4 regions from Donetsk oblast bordering the oblast- Oleksandrivskyj, Dobropil'skyj, Krasnoarmijskyj and Velykonovosilskyj (the last one currently being the base of operations for "Donbass")--ranging from declarations that the administration of these districts has expressed desire to join the Dnipropetrovsk oblast, as well as the heightened attention to these areas during a Kolomoyskyj-sponsored "referendum for Peace, Order, prosperity and Union" (which asked the people of the Donbass if they want their oblasts to join Dnipropetrovsk) and, most recently, the replacements of heads of administrations in these regions by Kyyiv, which is generally very friendly towards Kolomoyskyj-all of these led to the expected declaration from "Dnipro" that they have been asked by the local administration to patrol these 4 regions in order to repel separatists. The situation is made more complicated by the events that took place last Sunday in Krasnoarmiysk, where a group of armed men claiming to be "Dnipro" stormed the city admin, disrupting the DNR's referendum, but then got into an altercation with the angry supporters of separatists, and opened fire, killing 2 people before leaving the city. While the battalion itself and Dnipropetrovsk Admin both denied their presence in the area, the whole story is shady and there's a lot of question marks there. Since then, "Dnipro" hasn't been too vocal about their actions, there are reasons to believe they are active in the area.

On a bigger picture, Russia has been quiet-because it's been dealing with Tatars in Crimea. Today was the 70th anniversary of the Tatar's deportation from Crimea, and large mourning rallies were planned for the occasion. Russia has forbidden these and brought in a huge number of riot police to make sure they did not happen. Other than that, Russia has been pretty quiet, with Putin still not providing any comment as to the status of the self-proclaimed DNR and LNR.

In UA, teh elections are coming. There's exactly 1 week left, and the election's really seen as the next big "event" in all of this. It's expected that one there's a legitimate president, the ATO will ramp up as well. it's still hard to tell if this will actually be a 1-round election or if we'll need a run-off as usual. All polls give a huge lead to the oligarch Poroshenko, but Tymoshenko, whose party IS the current government still hopes to overcome that by marshaling her countryside voters (polls usually only account for city dwellers). The Internet, otoh gives majority of votes to the various Maydan candidates, foregoing the "Old Guard" politicians almost entirely. due to this, it's still a coin toss, and i'm unwilling to make too many predictions. The whole Donbass situation makes elections there problematic, as terrorists target electoral committees in seized cities in an attempt to undermine the election. Given that Donbass voters are traditionally pro-Russian, their removal from the voting equation actually makes it more likely to get a 1-round majority result, since the according to current legislation the election will still be valid even if there are no results from the Donbass.

On the international scale, US talks more sanctions. The voiced threats are sanctions targeting Russia's Coal and gas industries--although no one will stop buying form Gazprom. Given that qualifier, it seems these will be investment and denial-of-credits based which won't really be much. The threshold for new sanctions will be interference in the elections or active Russian military involvement on the mainland.

So in a nutshell- I'm very cautiously, but still, optimistic. Russia's prolonged silence makes me hopeful. The way resistance is slowly ramping up on Donbass in response to unbridled criminal sprees makes me hopeful that the region may still be kept with in UA, if a critical mass of its residents realize themselves as willing citizens. If they do, it'll be the final step in the de-Sovietization of Ukrainian people and forging of a political nation. If they don't, we'll probably lose the area, which will just speed up the anti-Russian consolidation on the rest of the mainland and the South specifically.

[Mentalist]

Daymn. what a week.

Moving into elections in 2 days, Donbass is basically a war zone. Last 2 days especially saw heavy fighting and underlined the incompetence of the higher-ups in the ATO military command.

It's safe to say that a large portion of DOnbass won't be voting. Central Electoral Committee is currently estimating that approximately 5% of eligible voters won't be able to participate. I would assume Crimeans aren't even factored into this calculation.

Onto things that actually defined headlines this week. Early on in the week, Renat Akhmetov, the oligarch-overlord of Donetsk oblast adopted an active pro-unity position. Well, an active pro-unity position insofar as he is very strongly opposed to the idea of DNR. And DNR is equally strongly opposed to the idea of such a powerful businessman being on their turf and not sharing. Akhmetov's support for Kyyiv expressed itself in angry addresses urging protests from TV screens as well as "horns of protest"- sounds of factory horns being played at noon each day in Donbass' factories as symbol of Donetsk businesses opposing the terrorist occupiers. This action is suppoorted by motorists and churches, in a clear indication that public doesn't like the DNR. Things haven't moved past dislike yet, though.

DNR's shown a number of cracks, as a few groups emerge that scramble for power within the self-proclaimed "republic". There have been romours of conflicts, in particular the "people's mayor" of Slov'yansk was allegedly arrested by the "Commander in chief" of the DNR Strelkov for "allegeed criminal ties". this is unconfirmed, though.

despite of this (or maybe because of it?) fighting has intensified all over Donbass. In Luhansk Oblast, the main fighting took place yesterday, in the area round the twin cities of Lisichansk-Severodonetsk, and the town of Rubizhne, with some additional fighting around Rubizhne today. The fighting there is pretty much a stalemate.

In Donetsk, the past few days hailed a string of defeats for ATO troops. Yesterday, a group of Ukrainian military was attacked at an inmpromptu checkpoint at dawn, about halfway between Donetsk and Mariupol. Ukrainian casualties include 17 dead and about 30 wounded, many of them with serious wounds. Main reason for such heavy casualties was teh carelessness of the newly conscripted troops and negligence of the officers-the impromptu checkpoint wasn't fortified, there were no warning pickets, so the troop was surrounded and placed under suppression crossfire. Majority of casualties were from a destroyed APC, which exploaded with its entire ammunition payload.

And this morning saw an ambush of the most capable pro-Unity unit in Donbass-the "Donbass" volunteer battalion of territorial defense. This unit has had real successes in the West of the Donbass region, removing weak DNR garrisons from a generally pro-unity areas areas, chasing out/arresting DNR sympathisers amongst politicians and local police and forming local self-defence units composed of pro-unity volunteers to maintain peace and order. After a number of successes, the batallion established control in 5 regions of western part of the oblast, with the military controlling a few more.

Today's ambush and the non-interference of the nearby regular military forces despite numerous cries for relief raise once again the issue of motivation amongst the leadership of the ATO. Despite being outgunned and outmanned and surrounded, the bulk of "Donbass" troops were able to break out, allegedly due to the interference of Right Sector volunteers. At least RS has claimed that their guns stepped in, taking casualties. Majority of "Donbass" broke through to the military-held territory. A number were taken prisoner and, according to the Russian commander Besler "Bes" ("Demon"), were executed. Some of the wounded were taken to Donetsk hospitals-an absolutely moronic move, given the high concentration of DNR fighters in the city and the complete apathy of local police.

Another batallion, "Azov" has been active in the eastern regions of the Oblast. Today they supposedly secured the city hall of the city of Torez. The activities of "Azov" are closely linked to Oleh Lyashko, one of the presidential candidates. There's a whole lot of questions as to his actual role in the political spectrum. A relatively new politician, leader of "Radical Party" he started out as a caricature of the opposition to the previous regime--a kind of "ultra-oppositoin", whose purpose was to discredit the actual opposition in numerous political talk shows. Despite this, he has been doing fairly "patriotic" thingss with regards to the entire Russia situation, so I am honestly at a loss of how to characterize his involvement.

Moving away from the frontlines, there's a the Russia-China deal. Well, there's a lot of different contracts, but the main one is the gas deal. I don't have much of a comment, not until the numbers are revealed. So far it looks like " you give us money, we build pipelines and keep people employed and then we sell the gas for cheap" type of deal. Given how lucrative "epic construction projects" in modern Russia are, there are certain construction company owners close to Kremlin that are surely giddy over this. I can't really comment on how much of an impact it'll have.

Speaking of impact, i'm far more concerned about the EU elections. That will likely have a much more important role to play on how this situation plays out.

In UA itself, aside from Donbass, the election prep's moving along. of the 3 candidates most likely to make it to the runoff round of 2 (mandatory, if no candidate gains over 50% of votes Round 1), I'm not a huge fan of either. In addition, the sociological surveys that the current ratings are based on may not be as accurate as we'd like. So I'll say it's cointoss. Turnout will be high. Results won't leave anyone happy. Short of that, there's not much to say with any certainty.

I'll probably write more on Sun, as I doubt i'll be able to do much other than track the election that day.

[Gothos]

Where's my Mentalist weekly? news stations and sites are hopeless.

Also, new campagin by soviet propaganda on social media? pathethic. slap a slogan on photos of children and voila. PATHETHIC.

[Mentalist]

Gothos, on 28 May 2014 - 10:34 AM, said:

Where's my Mentalist weekly? news stations and sites are hopeless.

Also, new campagin by soviet propaganda on social media? pathethic. slap a slogan on photos of children and voila. PATHETHIC.

Lol, been busy. Election happened on Sunday, for the first time since Independence we've elected a pres in 1 round. He wouldn't have been my first choice (as a Canadian citizen, I can't vote, though I may try to get around that for the parliamentary election). But yeah. The (now officially) elected new Pres is Petro Poroshenko--a "pro-Ukrainian" oligarch, once one of the biggest supporter of Yuschenko, who's helped to bankroll the Orange Revolution and who owns Channel 5-the biggest "opposition" channel, which was the mouthpiece of the Orange Revolution and thus earned the trust of the populace. He's also well-liked by the West, so that helped.

Basically, people wanted peace and to show lack of division. So they voted for the candidate with the highest rating according to the polls.

ATO ramped up on Monday, with Donetsk also turning into a war zone. There's a lot of in-fighting in the DNR, and there's mounting evidence of Chechen involvement, which is a very obvious "Russian trail" into what's happening on Donbass. I'll try to get more details in the evening.
'

[Mentalist]

And once again, I apologize for the delay. Problem is, post-election things are kinda localized in Donbass. And the situation's there so freaking complicated it's hard to figure out without following non-stop. Which I stopped doing, b/c I have other obligations in my life. Plus, My dad's not working this week, so HE has been following it non-stop.

But, the gist is this. ON Sunday, there was an election.Turnout was about 18 million voters-roughly 60% turnout. For comparison, in 2010 runoff round, the turnout was 29 million. The last parliamentary in 2012-20 million. There was no voting in Crimea+Sevastopol (minus 2.5 million potential voters), majority of electoral districts in Donbass (roughly 80% of the population) were unable to vote since DNR + LNR forces did all they could to disrupt the work of electoral committees. However, territory-wise, the elections covered most of the territory of Donbass. In Luhansk in particular, only 2 out of 12 electoral districts held elections. However, there 2 districts cover 12 out of the oblast's 18 regions in the northern part of the oblast. Due to the fact that geography and demographics of Donbass don't really match up, majority of population lives in a "belt" of industrial cities stretching from Donetsk to Luhansk, with branches following railways and coal veins. If Soviets had another 50 years to run the place, I expect we;d have had one gigantic "hyper-polis" where Donbass now is, poisoning the planet with its industrial might.

In Donetsk Oblast, the elections took place in the 4 Western regions controlled by "Dnipro" and "Donbass" batallions, as well as in the southern part of the oblast, including Mariupol. Turnout in Donbass was generally low, though, as there was a heavy propaganda from the people's republics about how the election is illegitimate and should be boycotted. A total of 200k people voted on Donbass (in 2010- almost 4 mil voters), and turnout was generally lower than usual in the South and Eastern oblasts, as many people there didn't feel there was a good candidate for them to vote (The traditional candidates for these regions were usually either Communists, or the Party of Regions, and both have discredited themselves. At the same time, the "Maydan", pro-Western, or "Orange" candidates aren't well trusted either). Nonetheless, the high turnout in the West of the country and in Kyyiv helped to boost the total turnout to about 60% of all eligible voters.

Oh, and while I was posting this, there's a picture that popped up in a tweetfeed, explaining voter activity:  Twitter opora ????????????? ....htm (206.39K)
Number of downloads: 12 teh Darker areas show higher turnout, with yeallow being occupied territory (not sure what's up with that one yellow district in the north EDIT: apparently it's the Exclusion Zone round Chornobyl).


As for the results: The oligarch Poroshenko won. HE won b/c the polls put him up as the having 40+% rating, and people wanted the election to be over in 1 round so as not to wait 3 weeks more for a runoff. He had plurality of votes in every singe electoral district, though there were huge variations for 2nd place depending on the region. Personally, I am not a fan of Poroshenko. He is very much "old guard". It was a power struggle between him and Tymoshenko that destroyed the "Orange coalition" in 2005 following the Orange Revolution. Being the godfather of one of President Yuschenko's kids, Poroshenko wanted power in exchange for his support. In fact, Yushenko promised both him and Tymoshenko the position of Prime Minister if he won, but Tymoshenko got that promise in writing. TO offset her, Yushenko made Poroshenko head of National Security and Defence Council, which he turned into a "Shadow Cabinet". the ensuing political power struggle allowed the Party of Regions to bounce back into big politics, and the disssapointment with the failures of Orange Revolution allowed Yanukovych to win the 2010 presidential election and plunge the country into criminal rule for 3 and a half years.

So, yeah. I'm not a fan of the new pres. but neither is pretty much anyone. There's a ton of civic orgs that will act as watchdogs, hounding every step of the new govt. There WILL be a new parliamentary election pretty much as soon as the Russia situation is cleared up somewhat (either in the fall, or next spring), which will (hopefully) see new parties emerge and finally leave the old political "elites" by the wayside.

I'm even less happy about Klytchko becoming the mayor of Kyyiv (he was running for mayor of the capital as Poroshenko's man). But that is a problem people of Kyyv will need to deal with. There's currently a bit of a scandal with vote-rigging for the Kyyv City council elections--a fledgling new party, Democratic Alliance, composed of civil activists is just borderline below the threshold 3%, and there are indicators their votes are being stolen to keep them out (Kyyv council is important, because they manage land rights (and building permits) in the capital, which is prime real estate). The idea of vote riggin now is despicable, but there are civic org watchdogs that are gonna be hounding them every step of the way. there's also a vote-rigging issue in Odessa, where there was a mayoral election and the "orange" candidate won according to teh exit polls, but the results are giving it to the party of Regions candidate.

And then Monday the ATO ramped up. Predictable. Since Poroshenko was all but declared winner on Sunday (although it took till yesterday to get the result protocols from Donbass districts), there's now a "legitimate" commander in chief, and a chain of command. So the armed forces perked up, with helicopters firing on checkpoints, and snipers working on those terrorists that tried to take control of Donetsk airport. Monday saw 35 terrorist casualties reported by Ministry of Defence, with DNR's own radio channeels saying 100 dead 300 wounded. It's hard to eliminate them, because of the huge number of civilians, but they are somewhat contained.

The situation there is a mess. In Donetsk Oblast, there's 3 organisations calling themselves DNR. There's also "Novorossiya", headed by the MP Tsaryov that is supposedly an amalgamation of DNR and LNR and wants to gai control over the rest of Southern and Eastern oblasts and Crimea (!!!) and become part of a federated Ukraine. The 3 DNRs don't really recognize each other. There's also 2 terrorist battalians- "oplot" ("Resistance")-which is a Kharkiv-based pro-Russian quasi-criminal "fight club" network, which was largely run out of Kharkiv, and now seems to be used as bodyguards by top Party of Regions officials, and "Vostok" ("East"), which has teh exact same name as a (supposeldy disbanded) shock troops of the Russian army, composed of Chechens. And this "Vostok" also has Chechens. Funny coincidence, that.
The border is nearly non-existant, as Ukrainian border guards repeatedly report "breakthroughs" and "breakrough attempts" by convoys of armed militants coming from Russia. Situation is turning into a slow-burning war, because the govt is unwilling to go in hard if it'll cause collateral damage. At the same time, without declaring martial law there's not enough resources to seal up the border to prevent Russian "volunteers" of seeping through.

There's incessant squabbling within the DNR (LNR seems far more stable by comparison, and it enjoys the full support of the oligarch Yefremov, who is one of the big Party of Regions bigwigs). While Luhansk is consolidated and separatists there are stronger, Donetsk oblast is a mess. People are fleeing though not en mass), businesses are stopping, crime is on the rise. The rest of the country is raising money to bring the army to shape, and organizing to keep Russian "liberators" out. Frankly, most are thankful the mess is on Donbass and not where they are. The general sentiment is, "if the people of Donbass don't start to organize resistance, no one should do it for them". The oligatrch Akhmetov has relocated to Kyyiv- a move that's pretty indicative of him losing control (his residence in Donetsk became a big subject of DNR's attention.

overall, it's complicated. The pro-Russia "Russian Spring" on Donbass is being heavily influence by 1) teh criminal tendencies of those recruited to be its footsoldiers on one side and 2) the class inequality struggle that expresses itself as ultra-left anti-big-business expropriationist rhetoric on the other. It's important to keep in mind that this "Revolution" does not enjoy widespread support. Working classes (Miners, metallurgists, factory workers) are generally pro-Russian, but not actively so--they work to put food on the table, and they need "stability". The middle class is small and intimidated--it's impossible to run an overly successful small business on the Donbass, because once it reaches a certain margin of profitability, the nice Party of Regions functioanries will arrange a raider takeover and bleed it dry. So the middle class--which was the driving force of the Revolution elsewhere in the country-is intimidated into inaction here. Which means the pro-unity supporters can only wait for the Army, or, conversely, wait for the DNR terrorists to push the average workers too far, so as to cause a violent uprising, where pissed off working mob will charge terrorists with machine guns.

So yeah, that's your week in UA in a nutshell. There's so international stuff, but i'll write about that on the weekend

EDIT: weird, picture fail. here's a twitter link: https://twitter.com/...8190080/photo/1

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 30 May 2014 - 07:04 PM

[Mentalist]

So, it's been forever since I wrote here last.

Basically, it's because like many Ukis, I've reached an emotional plateau so to speak, with the Presidential election. Since the whole Maydan thing started, back on November 21st, it's been a non-stop rollercoaster of emotion. The only topic of conversation. The uncertainty, the sheer bewilderment of it all, it was a lot to take in.

At this point, we're exhausted. Many of us have burned bridges, losing long-term friends over this. The rift created between Ukrainians and Russians is quite palpable, even abroad.
And following the election, there's been a "return to normality". Except, it's a new normal: there's a war in the East.

But that's just it: it's in the East. It's on Donbass. And for many, Donbass isn't Ukraine. It's not Ukraine, because it doesn't want to be Ukraine. Because it allowed this to happen. This, of course, is a very common psychological schema-people tend to assign blame to the victims, to diffuse responsibility. The real story, is, of course, loads more complicated.

But we've gotten to the point, where no one really cares anymore. Ukraine lost control of about 150 klicks of its border with Russia to the terrorists--and God knows how many volunteers have poured through at this time. I write volunteers without quotation marks, because I genuinely believe that there are many there who sincerely believe in restoring the glory of Imperial Russia, and "liberating their Russian brothers" The Russian imperial legacy in our neighbours' psyche is a tough cross we bear--and all of Europe will bear at some point, until such ambition is burned out of them. Or until they win and it becomes the status quo: I'm a realist, I allow for such a possibility.

At this point, everyone in Ukraine who cares enough to fight is already on the Donbass. For the rest, it's now "War". That is, it's something best left to professionals. We root for our troops, we mourn the losses, we cheer for reports of dead terrorists. Those who are socially active try to help, organize refugees, help to resettle people willing to leave the area. Others simply donate money to the army.

For the majority... it's like this: there's a war. We'll win (eventually). Because Russia's not going to invade openly. So, eventually, we'll close off the border, cut off supply routes and crush the terrorists. When it'll happen? hard to say. The ATO troops are getting better, gaining experience (though knowledge is often paid for in human lives), and, incredibly slowly but surely, the corrupt and incompetent are being weeded out, as there's a very real demand for merit in police, army, border guard, and SBU.

Donbass civilians? yes, what's happening to them is horrific. Yes, it's a terrible situation. But it's impossible to forget that SO MANY of them were out on the squares, chanting "RO-SSI-YA!", as terrorist took over govt buildings, took down Ukrainian flags, and proclaimed "independence". And although it was never the majority, the people of those regions where police are equally corrupt, but there was enough self-organization amongst pro-Unity segment of the population to rally together and prevent the same scenario in other parts of the country-in the South in particular-in Mykolayiv (where 6 people were hospitalized) and of course, Odessa. Despite the tragedy of the loss of life in Odessa, the general sentiment is "Those that sided with Russia, waving Russian flags, and undermining Ukraine's integrity got what they deserved. It's harsh, but it's an incredibly convincing warning to anyone that wants to try separatism in the South-we will fight". And contrasting this with Donbass, where a minority--a sizeable, incredibly loud, politically active, backed with local oligarch money, organized crime, and local govt officials--but still--A MINORITY--took over, whilst the grey majority stood idly by, and then voted in the "referendum"--"to get back at Kiev, because they chased off our local boy Yanukovych"--well, frankly, it's seen as treason. There are undoubtedly innocent women, children, elderly, invalids caught in the crossfire--but there's a simmering feeling of "the people of Donbass are traitors, because unlike the rest of the country, they didn't stand up". And no one really cares about the motives. There's an expectation that the people of Donbass must "rise up" to demonstrate to the rest of the country that, yes, Donbass really does want to be a part of the country. That it's willing to risk its safety to take this active stance. And if it doesn't--well, it'll get liberated anyway (see above for belief "we will win"), but it'll take longer. and in the meanwhile, Donbass civilians will get to experience all the joys of quasi-foreign occupation--which "serves them right" for not taking an active stance to quash separatism early on.

So these are the general sentiments. ATO has liberated the northernmost region of Donetsk oblast-the region around Krasnyj Liman (to the North East of Slovyank, bordering both Kharkinv and Luhansk oblasts). The city is back in Ukrainians' hands, order and govt functioning is restored, those that supported separatists are being ratted out by neigbours,

In return for this success, terrorists activated their efforts on the border and, as I've mentioned, they have practically removed Ukrainian presence from about 150 km-long strip of the UA-RU border. it's notable that Russian border guards (who are subordinate to the FSB) know nothing about any armed militants crossing the border.

Donbass is turning into a humanitarian disaster, as businesses are closing, and people are fleeing. DNR and LNR continue infighting and pillaging, often turning into uncontrolled armed gangs; law is nearly nonexistant, murders are common. But, these headlines no longer really shock-there's the "serves them right" reaction.

In general-it's plain as day Russia won't invade. It's also plain as day Russia is, at the very least, not discouraging the flow of armed imperialist "liberators" into the Donbass. It's win-win for Russia-there's a very good chance the most militant Far Right will get themselves killed, removing an ideological adversary. And, there's always a chance to use the Donbass instability as leverage in any attempts to interfere in Ukraine's affairs. At the very least, the Russian propaganda machine continues full swing.

So, it's a war. Deadly, bloody, messy war. But it's contained in Donbass. Which makes it far less pressing for many. And, since we are now certain that it's a war, there's a certain relief that comes with it. No uncertainty. Bottom line, there's a clarity-Russia-sponsor of agressors/agressor (depending on how much blame one is willing to assign them). Government is still a bunch of bastards, there still needs to be re-elections and lustration, but that's somehting we can deal with on our own. Separatists are bad-end of story. The certainty is refreshing.

It's a terrible way of thinking, I know. But it's a war. And it changed us.

[Gothos]

I'm just hoping you folk won't go all Bandera on the "separatists" and old system officials. Overall, good to hear - you're 24 years late to the party, but you're arriving nonetheless. Now if you play nice with the EU I can feel your situation getting steadily better in the next decades.

Plus, maybe we can all just sit back and stop thinking we might get into WW3 over this... I'm planning on getting my first car, their atomics can't take it from me!

[Mentalist]

Gothos, on 12 June 2014 - 06:00 AM, said:

I'm just hoping you folk won't go all Bandera on the "separatists" and old system officials. Overall, good to hear - you're 24 years late to the party, but you're arriving nonetheless. Now if you play nice with the EU I can feel your situation getting steadily better in the next decades.

Plus, maybe we can all just sit back and stop thinking we might get into WW3 over this... I'm planning on getting my first car, their atomics can't take it from me!

I realize this is a well-meaning comment, and I realize there's a large amount of bad blood about this b/w PL and UA, but I'll still ask you to leave UPA out of this. Despite all the political push of the USSR, Nurnberg recognised UPA as WWII combatants, and NOT as collaborationists.

It's definitely a hot topic. I don't endorse what happened in Volyn', just as I hope you don't endorse what Armija Krajowa did in Galicia (to secure a "corridor" from Krakow to Lwow). The massive amount of Russian rhetoric about "bEnderites" (because they can't be bothered to even know who it is they fear/hate) is making many ppl in UA re-evaluate UPA--we're like that, if you keep forsing us to do smth, we're likely to do the opposite, just to spite you for telling us how to live our lives. I don't support the methods of UPA, I certainly feel that theirs is an outdated ideology that doesn't mesh well with our realities, but I see nothing wrong with positive inclusive nationalism, as long as we speak of a "political" rather than an "ethnic" nationalism.

As for old regime-the goal of Maydan is the rule of law. That is the penultimate "European value" for which the Heavenly Hundred ultimately gave their lives. Second to this comes accountability of officials. It is inevitable that those who refuse to leave the reforming system and will continue to try to foster corruption will have to be rooted out. And I'm sure that heads will roll, figuratively speaking. I am looking forward to structural reforms that will allow patriotic-minded oligarchs to legalize their "grey capitals", pay proper taxes (not the draconian system in place now), and encourage them to invest in teh well-being of a country from which they've taken so much, and on whose wellbeing their business ultimately depends.

But those who will refuse this offer, and will continue to try to use their capital for political gains, will have to be destroyed. because if their interests will contravene the interests of the continued survival of the country, they will become traitors.

And I know you have a near-fanatical hatred of Russia, but I will ask you to relax in that sense, because Poland hasn't suffered nearly as much from them as we've had. And the Revolution of Dignity is, amongst many other aspects, an anticolonial revolution. Which means it's genuinely hard for Russians, who have thought of themselves as a ruling but caring "older brothers" to suddenly realize they are viewed as an agressor. I'm not trying to defend them, but Inderstand where they are coming from. It's pretty much the whole world's problem at this point, whether we like it or not, there are a lot of people out there that wish to rewrite history. And this is a reality we have to face, without emotions.

[Mentalist]

Been busy with work, and (mostly) World Cup, so long time since I updated this thread.

lots of stuff happened, lots of people died. Here are the key points:

1) Tanks. Lots of talk about the goddamn trio of tanks that allegedly crossed the border from Russia into UA. There's so much conflicting BS about where they came from it's not even funny. 3 most common versions: a) These are tanks from Russian army; b ) These are Ukrainian tanks that were left behind in Crimea, transferred to Russian mainland, and the "gifted" to the terrorists. c) These are Ukrainian tanks that were earlier taken by terrorist during earlier stages of ATO. Which one of these is true--I don't know. I also don't know why Uki troops didn't bomb them back to the stone age while they were travelling through the countryside from the area around the border to Donetsk and latter (allegedly) onto Slov'yansk. LOTS of confusion about this, with NATO saying that they came from Russia, Russia denying it, and so forth.

2) On Friday, June 13th, the Territorial Defence batallion "Azov", with support of National Guard and some military forces, liberated the city of Mariupol. Majority of terrorists have retreated from the city anticipating an assault, but about a hundred people, mostly local DNR supporters remained to man the barricades in the centre of the city. After a firefight that lasted several hours, they were surrounded and neutralized. Majority tried to flee, but was turned in by the locals. The city is now under Ukrainian control, flying the national flag. It's also been pronounced the temporary HQ of the governor of Donetsk Oblast, who was "exiled" to Kyyv after fighting broke out in Donetsk over the airport, which led to militarization of situation in Donetsk itself.

Despite the fact that Mariupol is "liberated", elements of DNR sympathizers (linked to the city's criminal underworld) persist. On Saturday, a reported shooting involving an RPG took the lives of 5 border guards in Mariupol. Pacification efforts continue, as SBU is tracking down those involved with terrorist activity in the city. Will be a long process, sinceMariupol is a big city, and the political overlays didn't really go anywhere--local oligarchs still want to speculate on the themes of separatism to get more regional privileges. Despite the fact that Renat Akhmetov was ousted out of Donetsk and his authority on Donbass continues to plunge (his autopark in Donetsk was robbed today, and there are serious talks of relocating his football club "Shakhtar" from Donetsk to either kyyv or (!!!) L'viv), he is still the biggest employer in Mariupol, which, if anyhting, gives him MORE political say now, since Mariupol is by far the biggest population centre in the Ukraine-held parts of Donbass.

3) On the night from 13th to 14th, there was an abortive attemtp to relieve/evacuate part of the military contingent that was holding a beseiged Luhansk airport. The attempt resulted in the singel largest loss suffered by ATO since the beginning of hostilities-an Il-76 transport plane was shot down, all 49 people aboard were killed. The blame for this is put squarely on the planners of ATO-according to some reports, the informaiton about the incoming plane was passed on to the terrorists by an ATO dispatcher.

4) Predictably, this news wasn't well taken by the people. On the weekend, a group of about 2k picketers assaulted the Russian embassy, defacing the walls, and damaging a lot of the embassy staff's cars. no one was actually hurt, the Russian flag was taken down using a fishing rod, so as not to tresspass on "Russian soil". The situation was diffused, somewhat, by the appearance of the (now former) Minister of Foreign Affairs, who tried to calm the mob down, and even sang a rather popular Ultras chant about Putin. This last episode was caught on video, causing international scandal. But it certainly won him approval of the people.

5) On Saturday ATO troops also liberated a town of Shastya ("Happiness"), less than 20 km north of Luhansk. The city was liberated largely by the Luhansk-oblast based battalion "Aidar", which is a new pro-Unity media darling. In general, the trend continues, as these volunteer battalions continue to be the most resultative elements of the ATO.

6) On Sunday, there was also a massive Viche (council/rally) on mAydan in Kyyiv, reminding the govt of the demands of the Revolution-continued battle with corruption, ending the terrorist threat, and, perhaps most importantly-scheduling parliamentary re-elections.

7) Since late Sunday night, the Pres began to talk ceasefire-unilateral from ATO, giving those separatists not involved in terrorist activity to lay down arms,a nd giving Russian militants a chance to go back to Russia. leadership of both DNR and LNR have refused to entertain any idea of a ceasefire, however.

8) On tuesday, there was a terrible uproar about 2 Russian journalist killed on the outskirts of Luhansk. They were at a terrorist checkpoint when it was shelled by howitzer fire. I feel terrible about the loss of life and all, but the "journalist"'s last piece was blatant propaganda-he wrote about the town of Shastya liberated on Saturday and passed on "rumours" that ukrainian military was conducting ethnic cleansings, butchering the entire population,

Yesterday the ATO forces advanced even closer towards Luhansk, taking over the suburb Metalist after a prolonged battle involving "Aidar". once again, reports vary, but "Aidar" themselves report that they were forced to get involved in a poorly planned assault on metalist, where the attacking column was ambushed, forcing "Aidar" to force their way in to relieve the ambushed forces. Despite losses of about 20 people, ATO now hold Metalist.

9) Today ATO was active around Slov'yansk. According to ATO spokesperson, a several terrorist groups were offered teh terms of a ceasefire and given a chance to lay down arms. They refused. As a result, the ATO was resumed. a number of towns and villages in the south of Krasnyj Liman region were liberated and, according to Strelkov, the "commander in chief" of the DNR's forces, who is based in Slov'yansk "their last remaining supply line was cut off... The Slov'yansk group is now completely surrounded". Strelkov continues to beseech for Russian military interference, claiming that at this point "mere support with weapons will no longer be effective. Direct intervention is required".

10) Russia continues to deny any active involvement. Today for the first time Russian officials have dropped the word "genocide" to describe what's happening there. According to Russian media, hundreds of thousands of Refugees flee to Russia. The govt hasn't recognized teh terrorist republics, nor has it condemned them. Russian border guards (subordinate to FSB) continue to be oblivious about men and guns crossing the border into the war zone. Russia continues to be unpredictable, and now there are reports that Russian troops are massing at the border again. It's becoming clear that without overt Russian support the people's republics are giving up ground, since they have failed to rouse up overwhelming support of local population or show any capacity to running even a semblance of a government.

Given the fact that US is gonna be otherwise occupied with the Iraqi headache, I can't exclude the possibility of Russia trying something "quick". If they don't, this will go for some time yet, but the progress made by the ATO will be hard to reverse. Any day now battalion "Donbass", (now incorporated into National Guard structures), reformed, re-armed, trained and doubled in size will head back there as well. Despite all the red tape and sometimes outright police sabotage volunteers are bringing body armor, equipment, and other necessities to those fighting out there. Morale is high, skill level continues to rise, along with experience. I can't say things are going great, but they are definitely not going terrible.

In northern part of terrorist-held parts of Donbass, there are now 3 main areas of terrorist concentration, which are being slowly but surely isolated.
i) the Slov'yansk group--worst off,, since that' where the fighting's been the fiercest, and where conditions are most destitute, as there are issues with electricity and drinking water. Its advantage is that it straddles a direct road to Donetsk, and it has behind is a string of other terrorist-held cities (Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, Konstyantinivka, and from there to one of the terrorist HQ cities of Horlivka).
ii) the Luhansk group-closest to the Russian border, with pretty secure supply lines to the south which is the heartland of the "mining Donbass", and also the area where the terrorists control the UA-RU border completely.
iii) the Lysychanks-Severodonetsk-Rubizhne group. This group is focused around the 3 large cities in the area, and, like the Luhansk group, enjoys stable supply lines. It's been contained in the cities, however, so there hasn't been that muchactivity here. It would appear there's less "ideological" terrorists here (they prefer the frontlines), and its more directly tied to local crime groups. There hasn't been that much ATO activity here yet.

It seems the next task of the ATO will be to completely isolate and destroy Strlkov's group in Slov'yansk whilst at the same time complete the encirclement of Luhansk. I expect "Donbass" once it's back in the area to continue where it left off-securing the regions west and south of Donetsk, probably in conjunction with "Azov". The task of taking back control of the border will probably be left to the regular military units.

[Mentalist]

Lots things happening since last time. Will give a proper update tomorrow.