[Trake]

Fanderay-Jalan occurs to me as an underexplored possibility, and Ive decided to go back and look into it, see where they land in regards to each other, writing my thoughts as I go.

So, stuff I noticed:

Right of the bat, Jalan's first two posts interacting with another player both quote Fanderay. They then have a little chat.
On Ultama, both seem against him (Fanderay votes him, Jalan argues people do signal). Fanderay goes on to vote Ultama again, Jalan calls his behaviour "extremely...misguided". He doesn't attack him as strongly as Fanderay, but Jalan hasn't been playing aggressive.

Some interaction:

Jalan, on 23 October 2013 - 04:19 PM, said:

Fanderay, on 23 October 2013 - 04:08 PM, said:

If I had a vig kill, I would kill you.

Calling for a vig?

Didn't we establish at some poitn a long time ago that that is a terrible thing to do as town?

Jalan doesn't follow this up, but that's not totally surprising from his play.

Fanderay corrects alan's reading comprehension in regards to me.

Jalan goes back to Ultama, a bit more convinced now, saying "this doesn't look like town play to me".

Jalan then makes his joke Ghennan case, and votes MO.

Hanas suggests a coaster lynch on Jalan as alternative to Fanderay. Fanderay doesn't hop on. He does later jump on Grasp though.

Jalan's actions during Fanderay getting heat are pretty interesting when considering them as possible partners. He returns, Fanderay has 3 votes:

Jalan, on 24 October 2013 - 01:22 PM, said:

Here, need coffee, catching up

His next post is on MO's modkill.

His next post talks about a different game, the one after that talks about PS' tech issues.

The one after that talks about someone taking his post on Ghennan seriously.

It just seems a bit odd that in this time, he doesn't comment at all on his thoughts on the main train. His next post addresses Fanderay:

Jalan, on 24 October 2013 - 02:07 PM, said:

Fanderay, on 24 October 2013 - 01:18 PM, said:

You know, I was hoping to be nice today, since unlike yesterday i'm properly caffeinated this morning, but I guess it was too much to hope for....

Shit, someone else mentioned caffeine when checking in this morning. Now they're going to think there is no mystery player and that I'm controlling both Jalan and Fanderay

He defends himself from Hanas' coasting accusation, pointing other people out as worse.

Then we get this:

Jalan, on 24 October 2013 - 02:16 PM, said:

Color me not surprised.

I doubt I will be surprised when the player name in the CF comes up, either.

With 2 modkills and lots of WIFOM from the MO modkill possibility today, it might be better at this point to not lynch. I'm not sure. I think if we had gotten a lynch day 1 it'd be viable to not do so today, but since we didn't get a lynch day 1 probably not a good idea to skip it twice.

Assuming a successful NK, we'll be 5 down after 2 days instead of the expected 4, but getting info from a real lynch probably outweighs that.

He introduces the idea of a no-lynch, albeit weakly.

He then votes Ultama.

Jalan, on 24 October 2013 - 02:29 PM, said:

Hanas, on 24 October 2013 - 01:31 PM, said:

Fanderay, on 24 October 2013 - 01:28 PM, said:

Hanas, on 24 October 2013 - 01:08 PM, said:

I am here for the next 90 minutes and can vote.

Basically:
Ultama is probably town for meta-reasons.
I like Ghennan so far.
I am patently unsure about Trake.
It might be very related to the last few hours, but Grasp seems very pushy to get a lynch almost to the point of skipping reasoning entirely.
I can't remember seeing much of Lock.
Cast, meh.
Fanderay: don't see a reason to lynch him. It is basically from rubbing people the wrong way and Ultama fall-out.
Jalan, wtf, 28 posts but can't remember a single one.

I really disliked MO and am sad we didn't get a CF there.

\
since when is "meta" a fucking excuse?

It is a certain's player's obsession to be a pushy towny and it nearly always leads to a major fuck-up on day 2. I am perfectly willing to vote him because
1) it is not good for town
2) this time he may be scum,

but I would be in no way surprised it was just another instance of day 2 syndrome on that particular player.

I have a problem with this.

I don't want to go all Macros here, but maybe the problem with malazan mafia is that townies playing like shit at the start of the game is a way to get VPI'd? So next game that I'm scum (esp. symp) I should do stupid "pushy" shit like Ultama is doing here, make a bunch of bad cases and piss everyone off so that I can be VPI for meta reasons and coast to victory?

When in the flying fuck did that become permissible?

I'm not done catching up yet, but the case on Fanderay doesn't appeal to me at all (seems it's entirely based on the fact that Hanas interacts with him and Ultama more than everyone else? I agree with the bit that they seem to be on at the same time) and I don't anticipate any other trains forming so

Vote Ultama

because apparently I'm shit at alting people so I don't have any meta excuses to PI him, and if you have a fucking weird crazy quadcase explosion followed by an angry OMGUS meltdown you look like scum to me and deserve to be tested.

If these hidden meta reasons are true, well then fuck you you deserve to be lynched so that maybe the next game you'll actually help town instead of fucking your own team over a barrel!

Jalan's vote is the first time he really addresses the Fanderay case. He doesn't like it (though leaves himself space to change his mind, having not caught up yet).

Also worth noting that Fanderay has been having a go at meta-reasoning in regards to Ultama, so it's interesting Jalan picks up the baton.

So far in my readup, Jalan-Fanderay seems actually pretty well supported.

[Trake]

Jalan, on 30 October 2013 - 09:15 PM, said:

Trake, on 30 October 2013 - 08:12 PM, said:

Jalan, on 30 October 2013 - 08:03 PM, said:

Trake, on 30 October 2013 - 07:48 PM, said:

Who's the partner? You mentioned either me-Ghennan or you-Ghennan, and I know it's not me.

Togg or MO.

Or there is no partner, Bernard GUI was some sort of special role that balances out a lone killer. Maybe with symp inheritance?

With no modkill CFs there's lots of possibilities so I'm just focusing on scummy behaviour as much as I can, without requiring that I can partner the person with someone.

Can't get behind this personally.

Bernard GUI idea doesn't fit with TMDI level imo.

Playing like there is only 1 scum living is against worst case scenario, and a bad idea in this case I think. It's better to play like there are two, because if there is only one, we can go down that road tomorrow, so it's best for today to try and hit someone who could be in a two.

I also don't want to buy into Togg or MO as a possibility for the above reason, and well as due to the uncertainty of it by nature, the fact that statistically it's not that likely, and because I don't think it should be affecting the game.

I'm not advocating playing as if there is only 1 scum. WCS is that there are 2 and that is how we ought to play. But whether those 2 scum are two killers or a killer and symp is both conceivable.

If you disregard Togg and MO then you have to believe that we either only ever had 2 killers or that at some point we eliminated a symp. That's fine, but in that case who do you think it was?

Personally I don't want to disregard the possibility of only one killer (but still 2 scum) left, because Ghennan seems so much scummier to me than Fanderay, and the only partnership I can really see is Hanas-Fanderay. Maaaaybe Hanas-Trake I could see too, and that's the next thing on my list to go back over with in mind.

If you think there are 2 scum, then connections are still relevant regardless of the specific type, and it is important to consider not just who is behaving individually most oddly but if they actually make sense as a team, which is the point was making.

[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 4. 13 hours and 6 minutes remaining.


5 players alive: Fanderay, Ghennan, Hanas, Jalan, Trake

3 votes to lynch, 3 votes to go to night.


Players not votes: Fanderay, Ghennan, Hanas, Jalan, Trake

[Trake]

By the way, so far it seems like if either of the two are the symp, Jalan is most likely. An exchange, started by Fanderay's post in regards to Jalan's case:

Fanderay, on 24 October 2013 - 02:38 PM, said:

Jalan, on 24 October 2013 - 02:37 PM, said:

Fanderay, on 24 October 2013 - 02:31 PM, said:

you know, with posts like this, you'll convince everyone we're the same person...

But Khell's not playing so we can't be him!

The temptation to quote and reply to someone's post directed at you as if I were you like Khell did with Mockra/Meanas in D'rek's last asian game is so hard to resist right now

well, once they lynch me and you don't die, they'll know it's not the case. I'm pretty sure they wouldn't allow married couples in a monastery in The Name of the Rose, being all Catholic-like.

Most interesting is probably Fanderay's initial post. Master warning symp?

This exchange continues for a while.

Hanas, btw, doesn't seem particularly behind an Ultama lynch, seeing it as a waste of time lynch for bad town play.

Both criticise Ultama's next case.

This post:

Jalan, on 25 October 2013 - 02:38 PM, said:

Fanderay, on 25 October 2013 - 02:04 PM, said:

[snip]

of course.

now, what do you make of Cast twisting the case on me around and then voting for his made-up version of reasons?

IMO, it looks like he's trying to take the path of least resistance.

You're the biggest train and there's an established reason for voting you. Cast looks to me like he's grabbing that reason and hopping on board.

It mostly stinks. For starts, if Cast is going to be online for a while there's no need to vote now unless he really, really believes it. But since he's just repeating the existing Fanderay lynch reason with no extra reasoning or conviction I don't think he does feel very strongly about it.

I might be a bit biased because I think the Fanderay reasoning is total shit, though.

This post:

Jalan, on 25 October 2013 - 04:58 PM, said:

I still don't feel that the Fanderay case has any salt and no one has brought up anything new since the initial case to sway me.

I could get behind a Grasp vote. I'm not really convinced the posting consistency means anything, but he does seem to be coasting a bit and there's connections there that can be expanded tomorrow.

My main preference is still Ultama for his multicasing and meltdown. He seems more reasonable now but that switch in behaviour back to calm is in some ways more suspicious. Scum would be more likely than town to feel the need to force themselves to go back to acting calm and to tone down their accusations. Claiming that the poor cases were fishing is a very weak excuse.

Fanderay then votes Grasp.

Then these two posts:

Jalan, on 25 October 2013 - 06:39 PM, said:

The case on Fanderay is so bad. I don't know if I would switch to it just for a lynch.

It is actually IMO that bad.

I don't see us gaining much of anything from it, so I probably won't.

Jalan, on 25 October 2013 - 06:40 PM, said:

I'll switch to Grasp to put it 3-3.

Vote Grasp

Not my top choice but like I said before I can get behind it for those same reasons.

If people are going to come online and vote just for the sake of the lynch, I'd rather it be Grasp so this is giving them that option.

3-3 as opposed to 4-2 if he'd voted Fanderay is a very important difference. Consider what would most likely have happened had he voted Fanderay, or even just not voted. There are around 1 hr 45 mins here by my count.

Jalan and Fanderay have disagreed exactly zero times as far as I can tell, at least not on anything not minute, up to this point...

[Trake]

Defending Fanderay:

Jalan, on 29 October 2013 - 02:05 PM, said:

If Fanderay is scum, risking getting lynched and makes a desperate new train, then Ultama puts the next vote onto it to give it a swing, why would the scum then kill Ultama? Wouldn't they suspect that Ultama is their symp?

Doesn't make any sense, IMO.

He then goes on to make some comments about me:

Jalan, on 29 October 2013 - 02:41 PM, said:

I do agree with Hanas that Trake bears some looking at today.

The post is longer but I felt it was interesting he went for someone where it looked like he might have someone to get a bit of momentum moving easily.

I defend myself, Hanas comes on and attacks Ghennan, I start going for Lock. Jalan goes off thread. When he comes back, he defends Hanas' vote on Ghennan a little, then follows my vote onto Lock.

His justification:

Jalan, on 29 October 2013 - 08:35 PM, said:

You really shouldn't just feed me lines like that Lock.

They're impossible to resist!

Followed by:

Jalan, on 29 October 2013 - 08:36 PM, said:

What are you really expecting from a Lock lynch, though, Trake?

A bit more substance:

Jalan, on 29 October 2013 - 08:47 PM, said:

Lock, on 29 October 2013 - 08:36 PM, said:

that's ok, Jalan - low hanging fruit for you

Anything constructive?

Well frankly, you seem to have gotten into a hissy fit / meltdown today when you finally got called on coasting. If you supposedly coast like this every game, and the only defense you can think of is that you coast like this every game, what fucking good are you? Why do you even play mafia then? You might "win" if the rest of the town does all the work and you happen to be in the game, but frankly that's not really winning. Frankly, you're portraying yourself as useless ballast and not even trying to discourage us from jettisoning you out the fucking airlock.

Frankly if you are town, since it's potentially D-Day then if you are town you should be making some effort to not be lynched, because your team might lose immediately from lynching you. You're not making any such effort, so either you don't understand how to play mafia, you are deliberately playing it improperly and ruining the game for everyone else, or you are scum stupidly trying to bluff your way out of a lynch.

Frankly, I think the last option is unlikely but I don't have any other candidates that I'm sure of.

And frankly, if one of the other two options is correct I still want to lynch you for being an ass/idiot, and potentially scare you away from ruining future games. The integrity of this game has already been destroyed by MO being stupid and self-modkilling, Togg signing up when he had no time to play, and Tatts being... well Tatts. Why not make a principled vote one more time?

Jalan, on 29 October 2013 - 08:52 PM, said:

Agreed on the partner bit, but it's hard to say if that is because he could be a killer trying to keep himself distanced or just an artifact of him coasting so much.

All my above reasons are true, but I do think given his hissy fit attitude today that he could truly be scum. The sudden jump into defending himself when he wasn't really getting a ton of pressure, and even when he didn't seem to have any good defenses to actually present, makes me suspicious. If he was an RI, why jump to defend himself so much? If he's RI and loves coasting so much he should hardly have cared about a bit of pressure, not gotten all snippy about it.

So I actually think he could be scum. Not 100% sure if I think he's more likely symp or killer.

I really hope killer, because if he's symp I have no goddamn clue who he's been trying to symp with his playstyle...

Fanderay's thoughts at the time:

Fanderay, on 29 October 2013 - 08:59 PM, said:

Ghennan, on 29 October 2013 - 08:53 PM, said:

I'll vote Lock if we get some consensus on him, because his play is annoying and unhelpful. He's actively resisting making any effort whatsoever, or even just posting a vote.

The thing is, though, his lynch doesn't really serve any purpose unless we actually think he is scum. If it's just because he's annoying, then it's just a waste on what is potentially D-day. He doesn't have any connections to anyone, so we wouldn't get anything useful out of his lynch even if it wasn't D-day.

One of Lock and Cast is scum, imho.

My other suspect is you, so that's not helping with a consensus, I'm afraid.

There's also some more joking banter between the two here.

Jalan returns just after the Lock lynch.

And that brings us up to today.

[Trake]

So, that's Jalan this game, in regards to Fanderay. I know I've focussed more on that side of things than on Fanderay's actions in regards to Jalan, but it's a similar idea really.

He doesn't mention him often, when he does it's defensive, and he really saved him with his vote. I don't think they disagree once.

Jalan-Fanderay and Hanas-Fanderay both seem plausible. They can't all be scum, not entirely sure which I think is most likely (Jalan, on gut, has seemed scummier than Hanas on their own play, but I don't remember that much from Hanas). Fanderay is the common factor.

Trake-Ghennan
Trake-Hanas
Jalan-Fanderay
Jalan-Ghennan
Hanas-Fanderay

If these are the possible pairs (Jalans list), the only other option than a fanderay pairing is Jalan-Ghennan, from my POV.

Before I cast my vote than, it's really Ghennan I need to look at, particularly in regards to Jalan.

[Trake]

Before I do that, I'm off for a bit.

[Jalan]

I'm not really properly "on" right now but with so few posts since last it was easy enough to read up.

I just want to point out that this whole part:

Trake, on 30 October 2013 - 09:36 PM, said:

Jalan's actions during Fanderay getting heat are pretty interesting when considering them as possible partners. He returns, Fanderay has 3 votes:

Jalan, on 24 October 2013 - 01:22 PM, said:

Here, need coffee, catching up

His next post is on MO's modkill.

His next post talks about a different game, the one after that talks about PS' tech issues.

The one after that talks about someone taking his post on Ghennan seriously.

It just seems a bit odd that in this time, he doesn't comment at all on his thoughts on the main train. His next post addresses Fanderay:

Jalan, on 24 October 2013 - 02:07 PM, said:

Fanderay, on 24 October 2013 - 01:18 PM, said:

You know, I was hoping to be nice today, since unlike yesterday i'm properly caffeinated this morning, but I guess it was too much to hope for....

Shit, someone else mentioned caffeine when checking in this morning. Now they're going to think there is no mystery player and that I'm controlling both Jalan and Fanderay

He defends himself from Hanas' coasting accusation, pointing other people out as worse.

Then we get this:

Jalan, on 24 October 2013 - 02:16 PM, said:

Color me not surprised.

I doubt I will be surprised when the player name in the CF comes up, either.

With 2 modkills and lots of WIFOM from the MO modkill possibility today, it might be better at this point to not lynch. I'm not sure. I think if we had gotten a lynch day 1 it'd be viable to not do so today, but since we didn't get a lynch day 1 probably not a good idea to skip it twice.

Assuming a successful NK, we'll be 5 down after 2 days instead of the expected 4, but getting info from a real lynch probably outweighs that.

He introduces the idea of a no-lynch, albeit weakly.

He then votes Ultama.

Jalan, on 24 October 2013 - 02:29 PM, said:

Hanas, on 24 October 2013 - 01:31 PM, said:

Fanderay, on 24 October 2013 - 01:28 PM, said:

Hanas, on 24 October 2013 - 01:08 PM, said:

I am here for the next 90 minutes and can vote.

Basically:
Ultama is probably town for meta-reasons.
I like Ghennan so far.
I am patently unsure about Trake.
It might be very related to the last few hours, but Grasp seems very pushy to get a lynch almost to the point of skipping reasoning entirely.
I can't remember seeing much of Lock.
Cast, meh.
Fanderay: don't see a reason to lynch him. It is basically from rubbing people the wrong way and Ultama fall-out.
Jalan, wtf, 28 posts but can't remember a single one.

I really disliked MO and am sad we didn't get a CF there.

\
since when is "meta" a fucking excuse?

It is a certain's player's obsession to be a pushy towny and it nearly always leads to a major fuck-up on day 2. I am perfectly willing to vote him because
1) it is not good for town
2) this time he may be scum,

but I would be in no way surprised it was just another instance of day 2 syndrome on that particular player.

I have a problem with this.

I don't want to go all Macros here, but maybe the problem with malazan mafia is that townies playing like shit at the start of the game is a way to get VPI'd? So next game that I'm scum (esp. symp) I should do stupid "pushy" shit like Ultama is doing here, make a bunch of bad cases and piss everyone off so that I can be VPI for meta reasons and coast to victory?

When in the flying fuck did that become permissible?

I'm not done catching up yet, but the case on Fanderay doesn't appeal to me at all (seems it's entirely based on the fact that Hanas interacts with him and Ultama more than everyone else? I agree with the bit that they seem to be on at the same time) and I don't anticipate any other trains forming so

Vote Ultama

because apparently I'm shit at alting people so I don't have any meta excuses to PI him, and if you have a fucking weird crazy quadcase explosion followed by an angry OMGUS meltdown you look like scum to me and deserve to be tested.

If these hidden meta reasons are true, well then fuck you you deserve to be lynched so that maybe the next game you'll actually help town instead of fucking your own team over a barrel!

Jalan's vote is the first time he really addresses the Fanderay case. He doesn't like it (though leaves himself space to change his mind, having not caught up yet).

from day 2 was me catching up and posting as I did so (not quite dkt-style but close enough). So the MO modkill commentary, PS comment, Ghennan comment, etc is all older posts that I was commenting on as I read through them and when I got to the Fanderay case/issues was when I commented on them. If you look at that section you'll see I start quoting from the first major thing worth commenting after my previous appearance and the rest follows chronologically until I was caught up.

Just wanted to point that out. Continue as you were.

[Trake]

Hmm, Ghennan Jalan is actually quite interesting as a connection. Ghennan mentions Jalan being near the top of his scum list quite a lot, asks people's opinions on him, but doesn't really do much to really push on it. At one point he is leaning towards Cast and Jalan as his top two scum, but follows up later with this:

Ghennan, on 24 October 2013 - 10:06 AM, said:

So, after a catch-up, I'm not really sure why Jalan stuck in my mind, but on a re-read I don't find him particularly scummy. And Cast has posted basically nothing. Monok's modkill has kind of taken the wind out of my sails, I was fairly sure we were on to something with Monok and Ultama, and suddenly it's all up in the air again.

Grasp is ringing some bells for me, and that drive-by vote was pretty scummy, but I need more time to articulate what it is that bothers me, and right now I need to go to bed.

I'm leaving my vote on Fanderay, because I think the link is interesting, and I need more time to decide how I feel about Ultama.

Vote Fanderay.

Night all!

Certainly I'm not going to rule out Jalan-Ghennan as possible. I've not had as much time as I'd have liked to look at them though, and I need to go to bed now. By my count we have about 9 and a half hours left.

I should be back on, but it's unlikely to be with more than 2-3 hours left.

At this point in time, the best votes for me are Fanderay, followed by Jalan. There's no point in me voting Hanas or Ghennan when the pairings possible for them are covered by the other two, who cover other pairings besides this. Obviously this relies on knowledge that I'm town, but I also do think they've both got a lot to be said for them as scum, with stronger connections than others anyhow.

Fanderay-Hanas seems stronger to me than Jalan-Ghennan, so Fanderay would be my first choice. Hanas being non-existant is tempering that a little.

I'm not going to leave a vote on overnight. While at some point, people may have to leave a vote without being around, it doesn't seem sensible to me to do it when it's not necessary, given the obvious risks.

Good night, see you in the morning.

[Fanderay]

i've read today, briefly, because im playing off my phone.
its rare I go into D-day with this little info.
most likely pairing I see atm is Trake-Ghennan, or maybe Trake-Hanas. obviously I dont have the benefit of being certain Trake is inno--just like he can't know that i am being honest when i tell him im not scum.
ill need to see how much time's left, as i may not be back @ work prior to deadline

[Fanderay]

Path-Shaper, on 30 October 2013 - 09:41 PM, said:

It is Day 4. 13 hours and 6 minutes remaining.


5 players alive: Fanderay, Ghennan, Hanas, Jalan, Trake

3 votes to lynch, 3 votes to go to night.


Players not votes: Fanderay, Ghennan, Hanas, Jalan, Trake

Judgin from this, day will time out b/w 6 and 7 AM. Not good, I'll deffo still be sleeping

[Jalan]

Fanderay, on 31 October 2013 - 01:52 AM, said:

Path-Shaper, on 30 October 2013 - 09:41 PM, said:

It is Day 4. 13 hours and 6 minutes remaining.


5 players alive: Fanderay, Ghennan, Hanas, Jalan, Trake

3 votes to lynch, 3 votes to go to night.


Players not votes: Fanderay, Ghennan, Hanas, Jalan, Trake

Judgin from this, day will time out b/w 6 and 7 AM. Not good, I'll deffo still be sleeping

Me too.

[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 4. 8 hours and 9 minutes remaining.


5 players alive: Fanderay, Ghennan, Hanas, Jalan, Trake

3 votes to lynch, 3 votes to go to night.


Players not votes: Fanderay, Ghennan, Hanas, Jalan, Trake



I'm off to bed now, so if you lynch in the meantime you may have to wait a while for resolution, just to let you know.

This post has been edited by Path-Shaper: 31 October 2013 - 02:46 AM

[Ghennan]

Jalan, on 30 October 2013 - 06:04 PM, said:

So Ghennan.

I'll admit I haven't really been paying much attention to Ghennan most of the game. His posts were usually pretty far apart even when he was posting regularly so I couldn't follow along as easily.

Re-reading the whole thing, Ghennan looks to me like someone who in the first couple days was almost coasting - few posts, spaced widely apart, mostly without major substance. I say almost because Ghennan made sure that he voted on day 1 and on day 2, as well as making a few posts of asking questions or probing into things.

His day 1 vote is pretty much just the same reasons as the previous votes and comments:

Ghennan, on 22 October 2013 - 11:18 PM, said:

Wow, that post is ringing so many bells for me. The self-pity, the 'acceptance' if we lynch him, the 'lynch me if you have to' schtick. It's making me want to vote for him more.

I'll be around on and off for the next few hours, but I'll vote now to see if we can get something going.

vote ultama

Here's his day 2 vote. This was the second vote on Fanderay, after Trake who soon removed.

Ghennan, on 24 October 2013 - 10:06 AM, said:

So, after a catch-up, I'm not really sure why Jalan stuck in my mind, but on a re-read I don't find him particularly scummy. And Cast has posted basically nothing. Monok's modkill has kind of taken the wind out of my sails, I was fairly sure we were on to something with Monok and Ultama, and suddenly it's all up in the air again.

Grasp is ringing some bells for me, and that drive-by vote was pretty scummy, but I need more time to articulate what it is that bothers me, and right now I need to go to bed.

I'm leaving my vote on Fanderay, because I think the link is interesting, and I need more time to decide how I feel about Ultama.

Vote Fanderay.

Night all!

It's much earlier this time, but he has almost no comments on any of the cases or goings-ons before this post. This was a contention yesterday, where Trake said it was a drive-by vote and Ghennan argued that he was online and posting before this vote. He was, but the 7 posts of the previous page (page 7) are almost entirely substanceless and none lead into the reasonings given here at all. He also drops suspicions of five other players in this same post, hedging his bets for later in the day, before disappearing for a while.

Ghennan won't show up again until the end of day, and when he does he feels the need to further defend his own vote, though he can still reiterate no better reasoning for his vote except that he finds the situation "interesting":

Ghennan, on 25 October 2013 - 11:15 AM, said:

So, I can see how my last vote could be considered scummy, but there were a few reasons I had for where I voted. The post I had made before that had been simply throwing a few names out to see what kind of consensus we could get about votes. When I had time to read back it seemed that my suspicions were unfounded, so I didn't vote that way. The whole day I had been focussed on Ultama and MO, and when MO was modkilled it took the wind out of my sails. I didn't have any strong feelings about anyone, but I wanted to leave a vote before I went to bed, so I felt it best to follow a vote that had already been made, as I didn't have time to build my own case.

Right now, it's past midnight on a Friday night, so I'm not going to make a case now. I'll definitely have time tomorrow before time out to return, so I'll see then what progress has been made, and share my suspicions about Grasp.

I do think it's interesting that Fanderay and Hanas have been linked, and since then they have both arrived and tried to start separate trains, so I'm happy with my vote where it is at the moment.

A half-dozen or so hours after that, it is near the end of day 2 and Grasp has now become the other possible train. Ghennan basically builds an entire case on Grasp, even though that's been already done and he's already at 4 votes. I won't overload this post with nested quotes by copying the whole thing but it is post 454 and then post 457, and then finally the actual vote in post 462:

Ghennan, on 25 October 2013 - 08:03 PM, said:

Well, Grasp has done nothing to convince me, or even defend himself at all, so I'm fine with this.

Vote Grasp.

(and then again in post 472 when he remembers to remove first)


^^that's day 2.


Day 3 is a whole different affair. Ghennan starts day 3 with a big push right out of the gates in the form of a case and vote on Fanderay:

Ghennan, on 28 October 2013 - 10:45 PM, said:

So, here's what's been bothering me about the previous day's voting. Fanderay starts getting some heat for being connected to Hanas. Hanas arrives, flails a bit, and then starts a totally new train on a "coaster".

Hanas, on 24 October 2013 - 01:23 PM, said:

You know what... let's just vote a coaster. This situation is damned unpleasant, and the mod-kills invite trouble by following too quickly with no info from them. In the current environment I'd rather lynch someone on whom I have absolutely no read whatsoever and who seems to like to keep it that way, despite a decent post count, than lynching someone on who some shades of grey are gathered and who at the least is being discussed.

Vote Jalan.

Now, without going in to my personal vendetta about low-poster witchhunts (seriously, voting low posters gives us no information!), Hanas accuses Jalan because Hanas has no read on him. But if we review Jalan's posting up to this point, he has asked a lot of questions and shared a few ideas about Ultama's crazy posting, suggested he is a symp and voted MO, which doesn't really look like coasting to me.


Next, Fanderay arrives, and to be fair he can't really defend himself against the case and votes, because it's almost entirely based on Hanas' behaviour. But his next action is to start yet another train, and I'm not entirely sure what his justification is.

Fanderay, on 24 October 2013 - 02:26 PM, said:

Everyone's being such busy worker bees.

just for the hell of it, here's the most cumulatively scummy player in my books. (after Ultama, but the problem with his case is that it is at least partially grounded in MO, and MO is now a perma-question-mark)

Ghennan, on 22 October 2013 - 11:18 PM, said:

Wow, that post is ringing so many bells for me. The self-pity, the 'acceptance' if we lynch him, the 'lynch me if you have to' schtick. It's making me want to vote for him more.

I'll be around on and off for the next few hours, but I'll vote now to see if we can get something going.

vote ultama

he never came back after that.

Ghennan, on 24 October 2013 - 10:06 AM, said:

So, after a catch-up, I'm not really sure why Jalan stuck in my mind, but on a re-read I don't find him particularly scummy. And Cast has posted basically nothing. Monok's modkill has kind of taken the wind out of my sails, I was fairly sure we were on to something with Monok and Ultama, and suddenly it's all up in the air again.

Grasp is ringing some bells for me, and that drive-by vote was pretty scummy, but I need more time to articulate what it is that bothers me, and right now I need to go to bed.

I'm leaving my vote on Fanderay, because I think the link is interesting, and I need more time to decide how I feel about Ultama.

Vote Fanderay.

Night all!

well, he's yet to come back. we shall see

remove vote

vote Ghennan

So apparently I'm scummy because on day one I said I would return and I didn't, and then on day two I voted for him?

This then leaves the vote count looking like this:

Path-Shaper, on 24 October 2013 - 03:03 PM, said:

It is Day 2. 2 hours and 37 minutes remaining.


9 players alive: Cast, Fanderay, Ghennan, Grasp, Hanas, Jalan, Lock, Trake, Ultama

5 votes to lynch, 5 votes to go to night.

2 votes Fanderay: Ghennan, Grasp
1 vote Jalan: Hanas
1 vote Ghennan: Fanderay
1 vote Ultama: Jalan

Players not voted: Cast, Lock, Trake, Ultama

That is a pretty big voting split, where previously there had only been one target suddenly there are four. Then later Ultama arrives, makes a case against Grasp and votes for him, and Fanderay immediately jumps on that train, and suddenly it takes off.

So this leaves me wondering if maybe Ultama was the symp after all. Up unitl that point, Ultama had said basically nothing about Grasp. But he returns to see that Fanderay is getting a bit of heat, and provides a new target that a few other people have already indicated suspicion about. Fanderay can't jump on Hanas' vote because they have already been linked, but Ultama's vote is a safe bet because they haven't been linked, and that way they can get an alternate train running.


This is seriously scummy.

Vote Fanderay

Trake, Fanderay and Hanas all criticize it a lot. Lock shows up and makes a big diversion, everyone ends up shifting to Lock. Ghennan's even got two posts much later once the Lock momentum is really building that to me read a bit like a low-key defence of Lock:

Ghennan, on 29 October 2013 - 08:53 PM, said:

I'll vote Lock if we get some consensus on him, because his play is annoying and unhelpful. He's actively resisting making any effort whatsoever, or even just posting a vote.

The thing is, though, his lynch doesn't really serve any purpose unless we actually think he is scum. If it's just because he's annoying, then it's just a waste on what is potentially D-day. He doesn't have any connections to anyone, so we wouldn't get anything useful out of his lynch even if it wasn't D-day.

Ghennan, on 29 October 2013 - 08:59 PM, said:

Also, I didn't see Lock's posting as being particularly defensive, just winding people up for shits and giggles. I'm not sure if it makes him more or less scummy.

So that's my lengthy and probably convoluted read up on Ghennan.

The sticking points to me are two things:

1 - Day 1 and 2, Ghennan kept a very low profile while still doing the right things to look active and contentful.

The reasonings for his votes are weak, he hedges out his bets with tons of light suspicions, and he adds defenses of his own actions even when he isn't really under pressure. I feel like the wide spacing of his posts and his efforts to have an early vote in day 2 really helped him to slip through the cracks and seem to have more content and activity than he really did.

2 - On Day 3, Ghennan suddenly flips around and pushes the thread with far more conviction than previously shown.

His Day 3 case was far more direct and large than any of his previous posts or additions. He seems to have made a suden switch from a very passive townie to trying to be a thread leader.

This reads to me like scum trying to avoid getting sucked into the more random lynches of day 1 and day-2-after-no-lynch-day-1, then coming out to steer the thread and be more active to avoid coasting accusations. This would be a concern for Ghennan as on day 2 there was several coasting accusations and votes, and Ghennan's original early vote on Fanderay didn't create a successful train and he had to switch at the last minute.


Lastly, yesterday's deflection of attention from Ghennan to Lock has me suspicious now, even though I didn't really catch it at the time. Lock seemingly came out of nowhere to make a big fuss for little reason, and Ghennan then began to seemingly support Lock a little. The easy answer would be then that Lock was a symp and Ghennan the killer, with Lock making a desperate move to keep attention off Ghennan. Whether Lock was or was not really a symp, Ghennan's reluctance to vote Lock could be Ghennan trying to avoid lynching a potential symp. Otherwise there's not much point in Ghennan as a townie being reluctant - if either you or another person will be lynched, and you know you're innocent so town lynching you is bad, you shouldn't be reluctant to lynch the other guy when there's a certainty of failure if they lynch you and at least some chance of success for the other guy.

Lastly, I find Lock's send-off to Ghennan before he dies interesting:

Lock, on 29 October 2013 - 09:33 PM, said:

Vote Ghennan


you old smoothy pants

That's about it. It's definitely not an ironclad case - no slip ups or comma-gates that I can point out. But Ghennan reads the most like scum to me out of all of you, and these are my reasons why / how I see that possibility played out.

There is one pretty big reason for this. I'm a student, and last week I was in lectures, so I didn't have an awful lot of time to play. I did in fact say several times that I was playing in class from my phone. This week I've been on study break, so I have a lot more time to play, even if it is during the day when no one else is on. Hence the case on Fanderay, and the summaries I did last night.

If Lock was my symp and was being voted off, I wouldn't necessarily know, because it's unlikely that the killers would know their symp. I also wouldn't defend said symp at all, and would have no problems voting for him. What would be the point of having a symp connected to a killer? I also find it doubtful that the symp would vote the killer under any circumstances, particularly if that vote was the second of four needed. Seems to be cutting it a bit fine there. If Fanderay or Jalan had returned earlier there was a good chance I would have been lynched instead of Lock yesterday. It's true that I didn't like Lock's lynch, and would have preferred Fanderay, if for nothing else than we still can't get past him. I accept that getting rid of a low poster may have been beneficial to town, but it didn't give us anything more to go on.

[Jalan]

I was hoping to get more commentary out of you guys on my Ghennan case... you've all been fairly silent today. It's creepy.

So I did re-read Hanas and Trake. I don't feel it's necessary to re-post a shit ton of quotes with comments for them. All the main possible scum indicators I feel are already noted up-thread by Ghennan, who while I'm very suspicious of when reading his summaries seems to have at least been thorough.

Suffice to say, Trake has so many little things and the one big thing to me is how we removed vote from Fanderay on day 2 and didn't re-vote. There's enough other things here and there that make me thing a Trake-Fanderay scum duo is impossible, so even that one big thing doesn't really have a lot of weight, and all the little things cancel each other out in the greater context. Overall, he just doesn't seem like scum to me.

Hanas was an interesting re-read. Again, I won't mass-quote everything - just go read Ghennan's summary one page back if you need a refresher then come read this. Hanas I'm going to call a reverse-coaster. Instead of having few posts with little substance, Hanas seems to have few posts but they are all substance, or at least trying to be. It's hard to find any post of his that isn't trying to make some big, noticeable point. Sure, part of that is that he missed day 1, but I'd still expect to see more natural conversation out of him on days 2 and 3. There's some replies to the symp deflection accusations in day 2, but even those come off unnaturally to me. Everything with him seems to be sort of methodical and pre-planned.

Of course that's not necessarily by itself a sign of scumminess. But I find that even though all his posts are meant to be contentful, overall he still seems to be coasting in the sense that he makes fairly easy cases, or side-cases that aren't really expected to do anything. He tried to make a case in the middle of day 2 on me for being a coaster, put it all in one post and then didn't really say anything about it again, but left his vote on me the whole day. On day 3 he makes a big counter-case on Ghennan after Ghennan's case on Fanderay, and even votes for Ghennan at the end of it, then disappears again saying no more.

Essentially, the whole thing smells fake to me. He puts a bunch of posts in that look serious and full of substance because they are accusing people, voting, or have mock anger IN ALL CAPITALS against the townie who was just CF'd, and those useful-seeming posts spaced far and wide around his long absences fool you into paying more attention to how irrelevant most of his posts are to what is going on around them. The sheer scarcity of posts and lack of any natural conversation makes it harder to get a read on him or for him to be more memorable. But those posts do have content, so you can't vote him off as a "coaster" either!

Looking at the posts in review though, Hanas basically summarizes as:

day 1 - absent
day 2 - votes Jalan for "coasting" which gets seen as a deflection. Leaves vote on all day without supporting his own case and barely comments on other trains
day 3 - votes Ghennan, who "Sounds like [he's] setting someone up", disappears for the rest of the day
day 4 - absent


Lastly, though I think a Togg or MO killer situation is possible, of the 5 pairings I think are possible now Hanas is 2 of them - Trake-Hanas or Hanas-Fanderay.


I was surprised to feel this way after I felt like Ghennan was scum earlier, but having now finished my re-read Hanas takes the cake. If Ghennan winds up being scum and not Hanas after I switched I'll eat my hat (not literally) but Hanas just plain feels a lot less like town.

Time out is in about 6 hours (probably 5 now that I've been writing this for however long) and I'll be asleep at that time, so

Vote Hanas

[Ghennan]

Trake, on 31 October 2013 - 01:18 AM, said:

Hmm, Ghennan Jalan is actually quite interesting as a connection. Ghennan mentions Jalan being near the top of his scum list quite a lot, asks people's opinions on him, but doesn't really do much to really push on it. At one point he is leaning towards Cast and Jalan as his top two scum, but follows up later with this:

Ghennan, on 24 October 2013 - 10:06 AM, said:

So, after a catch-up, I'm not really sure why Jalan stuck in my mind, but on a re-read I don't find him particularly scummy. And Cast has posted basically nothing. Monok's modkill has kind of taken the wind out of my sails, I was fairly sure we were on to something with Monok and Ultama, and suddenly it's all up in the air again.

Grasp is ringing some bells for me, and that drive-by vote was pretty scummy, but I need more time to articulate what it is that bothers me, and right now I need to go to bed.

I'm leaving my vote on Fanderay, because I think the link is interesting, and I need more time to decide how I feel about Ultama.

Vote Fanderay.

Night all!

Certainly I'm not going to rule out Jalan-Ghennan as possible. I've not had as much time as I'd have liked to look at them though, and I need to go to bed now. By my count we have about 9 and a half hours left.

I should be back on, but it's unlikely to be with more than 2-3 hours left.

At this point in time, the best votes for me are Fanderay, followed by Jalan. There's no point in me voting Hanas or Ghennan when the pairings possible for them are covered by the other two, who cover other pairings besides this. Obviously this relies on knowledge that I'm town, but I also do think they've both got a lot to be said for them as scum, with stronger connections than others anyhow.

Fanderay-Hanas seems stronger to me than Jalan-Ghennan, so Fanderay would be my first choice. Hanas being non-existant is tempering that a little.

I'm not going to leave a vote on overnight. While at some point, people may have to leave a vote without being around, it doesn't seem sensible to me to do it when it's not necessary, given the obvious risks.

Good night, see you in the morning.

As far as I recall, I mentioned Jalan once as being potentially scummy, but then when I had read over his posts I changed my mind. Saying that Jalan has been at the top of my list is simply untrue, because I haven't really had a list apart from Fanderay.

Also, this is the third day in a row you've mentioned that Fanderay is scummy or at the top of your list, and yet not voted for him. I'll be very interested to see where you vote when you return.

[Ghennan]

Jalan, on 31 October 2013 - 02:49 AM, said:

I was hoping to get more commentary out of you guys on my Ghennan case... you've all been fairly silent today. It's creepy.

So I did re-read Hanas and Trake. I don't feel it's necessary to re-post a shit ton of quotes with comments for them. All the main possible scum indicators I feel are already noted up-thread by Ghennan, who while I'm very suspicious of when reading his summaries seems to have at least been thorough.

Suffice to say, Trake has so many little things and the one big thing to me is how we removed vote from Fanderay on day 2 and didn't re-vote. There's enough other things here and there that make me thing a Trake-Fanderay scum duo is impossible, so even that one big thing doesn't really have a lot of weight, and all the little things cancel each other out in the greater context. Overall, he just doesn't seem like scum to me.

Hanas was an interesting re-read. Again, I won't mass-quote everything - just go read Ghennan's summary one page back if you need a refresher then come read this. Hanas I'm going to call a reverse-coaster. Instead of having few posts with little substance, Hanas seems to have few posts but they are all substance, or at least trying to be. It's hard to find any post of his that isn't trying to make some big, noticeable point. Sure, part of that is that he missed day 1, but I'd still expect to see more natural conversation out of him on days 2 and 3. There's some replies to the symp deflection accusations in day 2, but even those come off unnaturally to me. Everything with him seems to be sort of methodical and pre-planned.

Of course that's not necessarily by itself a sign of scumminess. But I find that even though all his posts are meant to be contentful, overall he still seems to be coasting in the sense that he makes fairly easy cases, or side-cases that aren't really expected to do anything. He tried to make a case in the middle of day 2 on me for being a coaster, put it all in one post and then didn't really say anything about it again, but left his vote on me the whole day. On day 3 he makes a big counter-case on Ghennan after Ghennan's case on Fanderay, and even votes for Ghennan at the end of it, then disappears again saying no more.

Essentially, the whole thing smells fake to me. He puts a bunch of posts in that look serious and full of substance because they are accusing people, voting, or have mock anger IN ALL CAPITALS against the townie who was just CF'd, and those useful-seeming posts spaced far and wide around his long absences fool you into paying more attention to how irrelevant most of his posts are to what is going on around them. The sheer scarcity of posts and lack of any natural conversation makes it harder to get a read on him or for him to be more memorable. But those posts do have content, so you can't vote him off as a "coaster" either!

Looking at the posts in review though, Hanas basically summarizes as:

day 1 - absent
day 2 - votes Jalan for "coasting" which gets seen as a deflection. Leaves vote on all day without supporting his own case and barely comments on other trains
day 3 - votes Ghennan, who "Sounds like [he's] setting someone up", disappears for the rest of the day
day 4 - absent


Lastly, though I think a Togg or MO killer situation is possible, of the 5 pairings I think are possible now Hanas is 2 of them - Trake-Hanas or Hanas-Fanderay.


I was surprised to feel this way after I felt like Ghennan was scum earlier, but having now finished my re-read Hanas takes the cake. If Ghennan winds up being scum and not Hanas after I switched I'll eat my hat (not literally) but Hanas just plain feels a lot less like town.

Time out is in about 6 hours (probably 5 now that I've been writing this for however long) and I'll be asleep at that time, so

Vote Hanas

I still find it weird that Trake says so much about Fanderay then never votes for him, but I can't get past the idea that Trake was the first to bring attention to Fanderay, and continues to say that there seems to be resistance to Fanderay's lynch.

If Trake and Fanderay are paired scum I'm going to be seriously impressed at their ballsiness. And then really mad that I didn't pick it up sooner.

Apart from that, I agree with your analysis of the Trake Fanderay pairing. I don't see much in that suggestion.

Your summary of Hanas makes me feel like he's scummy, but I still trip up over his comments about Fanderay. If Hanas is a killer, and his partner was Fanderay, I would think he would be much more aware of ho much he mentions Fanderay. If Fanderay wasn't his partner than this kind of fake-symping is just bringing undue attention on himself, although I guess he could be thinking that the natural reaction would be to lynch Fanderay, and then when Fanderay comes up inno Hanas is cleared of suspicion. I guess this is not as risky a situation as I had thought to begin with. The other argument for Hanas being scum is that he is the symp, either actually symping or fake-symping. Those options have already been discussed.

So maybe now I've talked myself into feeling ok about a Hanas lynch. I'd still like to hear from Hanas himself, and as I'll be around until the end of the lynch I'm fine with not voting at this stage.

[Trake]

Vote Fanderay

Around for like 5 mins, can't see why to vote elsewhere. It seems like high time Fanderay was lynched.

Afaics Hanas is past the modkill timer anyhow, don't particularly feel like voting there.

Kind of interesting Jalan didn't vote Ghennan, wasn't expecting Hanas vote and leave there.

[Trake]

Oh, and I think there are like 2 and a half hours...

[Trake]

Some Ghennan posts on Jalan, for the record:

Ghennan, on 24 October 2013 - 12:55 AM, said:

So, we have about 14 hours left. Who is everyone leaning towards? I'm thinking either Jalan or Cast

Ghennan, on 23 October 2013 - 11:17 AM, said:

I might be biased, because Monok's posting style really irritates me, but I feel like him and Jalan are at the top of my list at the moment.

Ghennan, on 23 October 2013 - 10:47 AM, said:

Why is it that you find the interaction between Cast and Jalan suspicious, but not Jalan himself?