[Ghennan]

Hokay, on to Trake.

Straight off the bat, Trake has been pushy, aggressive, throwing lots of votes around. Not traditional scum behaviour, but it has been seen before.

Trake, on 22 October 2013 - 01:36 PM, said:

Maybe the reason people are accidentally posting in the wrong threads is because there's no fucking way to differentiate between them based on game speed.

Vote Lock

For complaining about the lack of votes but being too much a coward to make a vote himself. Trying to get others to take the forefront is typical scum play.

His voting has also been a bit all over the place. There is a tendency to change fairly quickly, especially on day one:

Trake, on 22 October 2013 - 01:57 PM, said:

Ultama, on 22 October 2013 - 01:53 PM, said:

Vote Togg

Togg has not posted yet.

Remove vote

Vote Togg

Flimsy excuse for someone who hasn't posted yet?

Seems like a signal.

He does respond fairly helpfully to questions, and tends to share his views and thought processes:

Trake, on 22 October 2013 - 03:55 PM, said:

Jalan, on 22 October 2013 - 03:48 PM, said:

Ultama, on 22 October 2013 - 03:27 PM, said:

Jalan, I was enjoying watch Trake become more and more erratic. He votes someone, he votes someone else, then wants to vote that someone. Is it a case of anyone but him I wonder? This isn't the long game where a joke vote may be forgotten by the end of the day. No, this is the short game where posting is needed and votes required. I was never going to follow Trake's initial vote, so I made my own based on something very little.

My post was aimed at Trake, not you. Your bit is already done, whatever it was. But I want clarification of Trake's rational beause I don't understand what he is seeing.




edit: xpost with Trake himself!

Ultama votes Togg on a flimsy rational. It's been a slow start with almost no proper interaction at that point, so it's a pretty typical place to drop a signal. He possibly doesn't want to be the first vote.

I'm just not sure why he'd drop a vote that looks like a signal as town, for "very little". He makes it sound above like he was trying to kickstart the game? Why then choose the least active player? Sure, trying to prompt activity is good, but since almost no one had properly contributed at that stage, he had much better options in that sense, that don't leave him looking like he could be signalling, which is something innos wouldn't want to do.

Not afraid to make cases. The one below is for Monok, but he also makes cases on the connection between Hanas and Fanderay, and against Lock.

Trake, on 22 October 2013 - 11:44 PM, said:

OK, so Monok Ochem. First we have this post:

Monok Ochem, on 22 October 2013 - 04:32 PM, said:

So what do people think we have killer & symp is a good bet someone who has read the books can answer if William and Adso are potential killer and symp? Bernard arriving I'm at a loss to speculate as to what this may involve anyone had thoughts worth putting on thread? Mentioned as protagonist in the books but can't see them being a killer 3 days with no kills is excessive but 3 days to wrap up the game is to

Trake/Ultama are having fun tempted to put a vote on one of them because no one better in site so far

Day 1 signalling does happen but people try to be you know subtle about it what that really wasnt

Off for a bit now but will be back before night

At the time I pointed out how middle of the road it was, but since no one decided to take me up on actually discussing it, let's go into a bit more detail.

How does he start? Well, some game speculation. Or rather, inviting other people to speculate about the game. The only vague attempt at speculation he himself offers he immediately dismisses. Not only that, where other people were speculating about GUI, he goes further, onto other characters. It seems like vague bait to get people discussing roles etc. Also worth noting is the basic comprehension failure - bernard is mentioned as an antagonist, not a protagonist.

He gives no opinion whatsoever on me and Ultama, except we're "fun", and apparently he'd be happy to vote either. Could he be more middle of the road (read it in Chandler's voice). And what reason would he have for voting, if he had?

Then, onto discussing the issue of signalling. And again, he falls right in the middle. Agrees that it happens (obvious), but isn't convinced that this is a case of signalling, people try to be subtle and that wasn't...While I disagree with this point (that we should disregard obvious signals for being too obvious), the point is more how utterly uncommitted his view is in either direction.

And then he leaves, but, helpfully, will be back before night, which is really ideal for scum since it means they can hop onto a train "for a lynch" - someone else pointed out how useless this is I think.

And then he pops back up:

Monok Ochem, on 22 October 2013 - 10:53 PM, said:

So what merit do Ultama and Trake see in lynching someone who will be modkilled shortly if theyre not modkilled they have some explaining to do tomorrow

I dont see a killer leaving their first post this late that strikes of raising too many questions

Low posting or hiding in a high posting style yes not no posting

Ultama looks like our only other choice at the moment

Vote Ultama

In time to tell us that Ultama is our only choice so he's voting there.

Again, comprehension seems slightly lacking - it's a short thread dude, I've already pointed out the thing about modkill several times so why are you asking what benefit I see in lynching there. But then, the next line is basically a rehash of part of my discussion with Ultama.

He then votes Ultama, for being the only option. His train only has 2 votes more than anyone else, and I'm not sure this convinces me...I never like people being presented as the "only" option. Within 25 minutes he's from 2 votes to 4, in a piece of convenient timing from Ghennan, but at least Ghennan justifies his vote based on Ultama's behaviour.

So below, Trake indicates that he is uncomfortable with people blindly following his vote. I find this interesting, because I feel there would be less concern over this if Trake were scum. Particularly because if he were scum then the people following his vote could potentially be connected to him, so he would be less likely to draw attention to those people.

Trake, on 24 October 2013 - 12:02 PM, said:

In essence, I am don't like the manner in which people are following my vote and the justifications they are giving for doing so. I would like to hear back from Fanderay.

I will also be around to vote.

It is not wishy washy not to want to let people get away with hopping on a train with the excuse of simple momentum, or not to want to create an illusion that we only have one choice when that is not that case. It is common sense.

This accusation of erraticism is getting tiring (and is utterly hypocritical, may I add). I have been playing like this all game. Being wishy washy and simply not being tunnel visioned are different things. Making several different assertions and putting pressure in several different places is one thing. Being middle of the road, non committal and vague on every assertion you make is another.

Trake, on 24 October 2013 - 12:50 PM, said:

[snip]

Shit, we're not meant to comment on people's votes now?

Of the two people following my vote, one follows it despite having not mentioned Fanderay as particularly suspicious and just parrots me, the other doesn't seem to have seen much in my initial reasoning having piled on a bunch of weak justification that seems like they're straining to get anything to stick.

You can't see how that might make someone hesitant?

You even say the fact that Grasp, who you don't trust, is voting Cast puts you off it, but I'm not allowed the same feeling when two people pile on? You complain about me building myself up but seem to expect me implicitly to trust you?

In regards to Hanas, I was actually satisfied with his reaction, it's a reasonable explanation, and he didn't over react or anything...

His responses to cases and questions seem pretty well-thought-out. He obviously puts time into thinking about his responses, and again, has no problem with sharing his thought processes.

Trake, on 29 October 2013 - 12:07 AM, said:

Ghennan, on 28 October 2013 - 10:45 PM, said:

So apparently I'm scummy because on day one I said I would return and I didn't, and then on day two I voted for him?

My first thought on this was that Fanderay also said he'd return on day one and then didn't, which I didn't like. But that doesn't mean he doesn't have a point, and I didn't like you doing it either.

I also feeling you're simplifying the point he does have, particularly by saying that day two is just OMGUS. Drive by voting and leaving restricts train options, and gets a vote down without looking like being really dead set on the lynch and having to commit to arguing for it. It's pretty noticeable when it happens twice in a row.

I also think that connecting Fanderay to Ultama as a symp is somewhat unnecessary. I'm not saying it's impossible, or even particularly unlikely. But at the same time, it hardly has to be the case for Fanderay to hop on Grasp. It makes sense just as a self-preservation vote. While it could be more, looking for scum in actions that do make sense is a bit of a labyrinth.

[Ghennan]

One issue I do have is his thoughts about Fanderay. So day three, Fanderay has been suggested as a potential lynch target, and Trake is happy with this because there seemed to be resistance to Fanderay's lynch, and also Hanas is still hanging around maybe fake symping him.

Trake, on 29 October 2013 - 05:45 PM, said:

At the moment I'm torn between Lock and Fanderay as my main two. Fanderay because he was de-railed off with a very small amount of time left, onto a much worse lynch (info wise), and that's always suspicious.

Lock for ludicrous coasting all game. It's hard to have a read on several people, Cast hasn't posted much (he's also been middle of the road when about), Hanas hasn't been under much pressure. But I think Lock is the worst for coasting, based on his own play.

Trake, on 29 October 2013 - 06:19 PM, said:

Hanas, on 29 October 2013 - 03:50 PM, said:

So your case for last day's main lynch target (which came from a shitty association case) is that he didn't show an appetite for dying but voted for someone else, combined with an all fresh and new association case?
If Ultama is the suspected symp, why would he be killed? Imho, the reason Tatts was killed was because he was PIed by association already by the meta-using part of the thread, thus giving us no new info.

I think this is incredibly lazy work and it comes off as scum revitalising an earlier case with some new arguments. The fact that Cast is very cautiously offering support without a vote is making me suspicious as well.


Vote Ghennan.

Sounds like you're setting someone up.

Got to say I don't like this vote either. Most of the reasoning is simply arguments for why Ghennan's case on Fanderay is bad, not why Ghennan seems scummy. He also makes sure to put down the initial reasons for voting Fanderay.

He then backs this up with some fun WIFOM kill speculation, and ties in Cast for good measure.

I don't think Ghennan's reasoning is wonderful, but it seems a bit of a stretch to say that this makes him scummy, and it's pretty interesting that it happens to be in regards to a case on Fanderay. Is this the only case this game to be a bit of a stretch? Do town only make good cases now?

Edit for clarification (making it clear who I meant when saying "his").

Hanas is seeming shiftier and shifter, and always in relation to Fanderay. Symp cases are always tricky though, and fake symping is possible...

So he indicates interest above, but then appears to start talking himself out of it.

Then he votes Lock, even while admitting that not much information will come from his lynch.

Trake, on 29 October 2013 - 08:35 PM, said:

Lock, on 29 October 2013 - 08:33 PM, said:

alright what are we going to do then?

Personally I was hoping we could lynch you.

If you're not scum, at least it'll discourage such unhelpful town behaviour...

Trake, on 29 October 2013 - 08:45 PM, said:

Jalan, on 29 October 2013 - 08:36 PM, said:

What are you really expecting from a Lock lynch, though, Trake?

A scum CF?

Realistically I find it hard to present Lock as being someone's partner in particular, because he's been very uninvolved. It is very much a lynch based on his own play.

People are talking a lot about people coasting and trying to look like they're posting content without doing so. To me, Lock is the worst in regards to this, even though scum could easily be the 2nd or 3rd coastiest (is that a word?)...That's the problem with coasting behaviour, it let's people hide...

I would still be happy to lynch Fanderay. It clears up a source of distraction, late de-rails are suspicious, and there are more definite candidates for him as a member of a team. He definitely would've been a better lynch than Grasp...

Throughout the end of the last day, Trake insisted that he was happy to vote Fanderay, and frequently mentioned that he should have been lynched the day before, because his presence was confusing the thread. He often mentions resistance to Fanderay's lynch. But he never once votes for Fanderay.

Trake, on 29 October 2013 - 09:56 PM, said:

Ghennan, on 29 October 2013 - 09:54 PM, said:

So, Lock's not going to change his vote, Fanderay's not going to vote for himself. Jalan has left for the day, and Cast has gone AWOL. Hanas doesn't seem to be around, and anyway has pretty much said he won't vote Fanderay. Doesn't look promising.

In a contest between myself and Lock I'd rather it be Lock. But I'll self-hammer if I have to, just so we don't have this shit all over again tomorrow.

It seems that again lynching Fanderay is troublesome.

Which is interesting considering scum could be a significant bloc at this stage.

I dunno if there's anyone else that you could say there'd be the same difficulty over...

Summary: Trake is close to ever-present. Engages in a bunch of fights - Ultama, Grasp, Lock. Makes cases against people, throws a lot of votes out, shares ideas about who is scummy, and finds pretty much everyone scummy at one point or another. Posts are mostly full of content. Makes a lot of comments about the cases on thread at the time. Is around at time out to get lynches.

The one sticking point is Fanderay (freaking everything comes back to Fanderay, but I guess that's what happens when you avoid getting lynched two days in a row).

Also, has received surprisingly little heat for how present and aggressive he's been.

[Fanderay]

Morning. I see Ghennan's been busy, analyzing everyone. I've skimmed quickly, will think in more details at lunch time.

Yes, everything comes back to me, apparently. Now, for the sake of the argument, get over your fixation, and imagine that I CF inno. What will that CF tell you (other than game's probably over, if we're sticking with "today is D-Day again" scenario)?

[Jalan]

I'm working on more or less a full re-read.

The more I think about it, the more I think those two modkills really hurt us. We can't know the game setup for sure, but two killers is the most likely. If we had the modkill CFs, we'd either have a killer CF to draw connections from (ok, I guess Togg wouldn't have much connections) or if we had no killer CFs we could be looking for a pairing.

So re-reading, I can look at Ghennan voting Fanderay day 2 and think ok those two are almost certainly not paired, but since we don't know if we're facing a pair or single killer that's really not very helpful anymore.

Very very frustrating! I just needed to vent that out a bit!

[Jalan]

While I'm at it, anyone have any thoughts about why Cast was picked to die last night? I know... scum WIFOM etc etc. But usually scum have at least some reasoning to their kills by day 3.

Usually scum seem to want to pick someone who they haven't completely ignored on-thread and who they haven't completely focused on on-thread, IMO. I can't really remember any cases made on Cast, good or bad, but there might have been a couple one post cases on him on day 2. Will look.

I know, I know, WIFOM WIFOM

I've got an alternate, crazy theory involving meta that I can't talk about, though.

[Jalan]

Mostly done my re-read.

The first thing I wanted to do was look over all of Fanderay. I feel like the Hanas deflection issue became the only thing leveled at Fanderay and wanted to see if there was any behaviour or other issues being masked by it.

Upon review though, there's nothing that pings my radar for Fanderay. Which is not to say that he's squeaky clean - there's some back and forth between him and Trake on day 2 that seems like partners trying to not stay entirely distanced on-thread, and he even goes so far as to defend against an accusation from Ultama that was part of an Ultama-Trake discussion and asked of Trake, rather than at Fanderay directly, which really jumped out at me.

However, these things are cancelled out by other things - ie I don't believe Trake would have made such an effective case on Fanderay if they were really working in tandem. Overall, I don't see any slip-ups or enough untown behaviour on Fanderay to believe he's more likely scum than everyone else, so I can't/won't try and make a case for it.




More things to come.

[Jalan]

Answering my own question, I see Trake did a Cast review (not really a full case) in day 2:

Trake, on 24 October 2013 - 12:05 AM, said:

Ok, onto Cast next. Or Coast rather.

Almost no content yesterday. One post approaches it, and I tend to agree with the people who say it's pretending to be more than it is. The post has three parts.

1. D-day calculation and balance speculation (not really content in that it gives no read).

2. He doesn't like the idea of signalling because we don't know the exact setup, and there may be no symp. And even if there is he doesn't like signalling cases. This is slightly more involved in the game.

3. He doesn't like me. Jumps on the "erratic" bandwagon essentially, says I'm reacting under pressure. This part doesn't really make sense, since I wasn't reacting (I was acting), and I was under next to no pressure. I think I did point this out but he didn't come back to it.

So very little engagement with the game.

Then today we have this:

Cast, on 23 October 2013 - 01:51 PM, said:

Hey everyone! Sorry for not getting a vote in last night. Things happened, I didn't get to a computer before timeout. I know, no excuses, and I know it makes me look bad, but what else can I say, shit happens.

Though I obviously disagree with his accusations of me, I like the analysis that Ultama's making. I'm going to hopefully have the time to look deeper into some of the things he's said today and try to pick it apart a little. Work's kind of busy and whatnot, but I should have some more time to dedicate to Mafia today than I did yesterday!

Which struck me as being very non confrontational.

He likes Ultama's analysis. Which seems weird, I mean, if he disagrees with the conclusions, and has read it at all, you'd think he would find a problem straight off with the way Ultama analysed it...

Again, not really much content here.

Haven't seen any other big ones on Cast yet, though Hanas has a slight mention of suspicions on him at one point:

Hanas, on 28 October 2013 - 03:35 PM, said:

Haven't caught up since the forum died on me last week, so no firm grasp on content here and now... but a switch from Fanderay to Grasp for the lynch? Meh. Even if I calculate in that I may have seem sympy, the case stunk. As for Grasp, yes, he was wishywashy, but there were better targets. Also, wonder what Trake has to say about Ultama mentioning Jalan as a potential lynch target.
When I did that, the tiger was all happy to call it "the derailment towards an easy target he expected from me".

Finally: Tatts: show some god-damned patience next time, play to your strengths, don't think you know it all, don't start making weird claims that you can't back up and MOST OF FUCKING ALL, don't melt down like Emmenthaler on a leaky nuclear reactor. I didn't want to go out with the meta-stuff (Fanderay's STFU, ASSHOLE at this point is pre-emptively noted) but it was so god-damned clear it was you and that you were inno that not mentioning it would have been hypocritical. Even though you deserved a lynch for the actual play.

I think with Trake, there's a huge skeleton in the closet that we need to discuss as he seems involved in everything.
Jalan seems present a lot but hasn't got much fire and the time I tried, Trake jumped on it. Wonder if that had to do with me as a suspected symp, or with Jalan.
I am also not sure about Lock, who seems to subsistence post, and I don't like Cast for some reason or other - mainly because I have the unsubstantiated impression that he is there when there are vote swings.

[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 4. 19 hours and 26 minutes remaining.


5 players alive: Fanderay, Ghennan, Hanas, Jalan, Trake

3 votes to lynch, 3 votes to go to night.


Players not votes: Fanderay, Ghennan, Hanas, Jalan, Trake

[Trake]

Fanderay, on 30 October 2013 - 01:25 PM, said:

Morning. I see Ghennan's been busy, analyzing everyone. I've skimmed quickly, will think in more details at lunch time.

Yes, everything comes back to me, apparently. Now, for the sake of the argument, get over your fixation, and imagine that I CF inno. What will that CF tell you (other than game's probably over, if we're sticking with "today is D-Day again" scenario)?

I agree that today should be treated as D-day, given we have no scum CFs.

If you CF inno my guess would be for Jalan or Hanas as partner, Ghennan seems less likely.

You did start shying away from Hanas, but scum distancing or ditching a symp is hardly rare, particularly after they've been pulled up for connections.

If there are two scum, what pairs are actually believable, and is there a common factor? To me, this seems a pretty important consideration for today.

In regards to Jalan asking why Cast was killed, the two most obvious reasons would be that he has few connections (much like Pallid, interestingly unlike Ultama), and that he's not a likely lynch for today after we've just had a coaster lynch and it could be D-day, so other people are more useful to keep around.

[Jalan]

Trake, on 30 October 2013 - 04:09 PM, said:

Fanderay, on 30 October 2013 - 01:25 PM, said:

Morning. I see Ghennan's been busy, analyzing everyone. I've skimmed quickly, will think in more details at lunch time.

Yes, everything comes back to me, apparently. Now, for the sake of the argument, get over your fixation, and imagine that I CF inno. What will that CF tell you (other than game's probably over, if we're sticking with "today is D-Day again" scenario)?

I agree that today should be treated as D-day, given we have no scum CFs.

If you CF inno my guess would be for Jalan or Hanas as partner, Ghennan seems less likely.

You did start shying away from Hanas, but scum distancing or ditching a symp is hardly rare, particularly after they've been pulled up for connections.

If there are two scum, what pairs are actually believable, and is there a common factor? To me, this seems a pretty important consideration for today.

In regards to Jalan asking why Cast was killed, the two most obvious reasons would be that he has few connections (much like Pallid, interestingly unlike Ultama), and that he's not a likely lynch for today after we've just had a coaster lynch and it could be D-day, so other people are more useful to keep around.

Possible partnerships so far, IMO:

Trake-Ghennan
Trake-Hanas
Jalan-Fanderay
Jalan-Ghennan
Hanas-Fanderay


Yes I'm including myself, why not. The Jalan-Ghennan option isn't going to be valid for much longer though - I'm putting together a Ghennan case in another tab

[Trake]

Jalan, on 30 October 2013 - 04:23 PM, said:

Trake, on 30 October 2013 - 04:09 PM, said:

Fanderay, on 30 October 2013 - 01:25 PM, said:

Morning. I see Ghennan's been busy, analyzing everyone. I've skimmed quickly, will think in more details at lunch time.

Yes, everything comes back to me, apparently. Now, for the sake of the argument, get over your fixation, and imagine that I CF inno. What will that CF tell you (other than game's probably over, if we're sticking with "today is D-Day again" scenario)?

I agree that today should be treated as D-day, given we have no scum CFs.

If you CF inno my guess would be for Jalan or Hanas as partner, Ghennan seems less likely.

You did start shying away from Hanas, but scum distancing or ditching a symp is hardly rare, particularly after they've been pulled up for connections.

If there are two scum, what pairs are actually believable, and is there a common factor? To me, this seems a pretty important consideration for today.

In regards to Jalan asking why Cast was killed, the two most obvious reasons would be that he has few connections (much like Pallid, interestingly unlike Ultama), and that he's not a likely lynch for today after we've just had a coaster lynch and it could be D-day, so other people are more useful to keep around.

Possible partnerships so far, IMO:

Trake-Ghennan
Trake-Hanas
Jalan-Fanderay
Jalan-Ghennan
Hanas-Fanderay


Yes I'm including myself, why not. The Jalan-Ghennan option isn't going to be valid for much longer though - I'm putting together a Ghennan case in another tab

Hmm, any particular reason you include Jalan-Fanderay but not Jalan-Hanas?

[Jalan]

Trake, on 30 October 2013 - 04:31 PM, said:

Jalan, on 30 October 2013 - 04:23 PM, said:

Trake, on 30 October 2013 - 04:09 PM, said:

Fanderay, on 30 October 2013 - 01:25 PM, said:

Morning. I see Ghennan's been busy, analyzing everyone. I've skimmed quickly, will think in more details at lunch time.

Yes, everything comes back to me, apparently. Now, for the sake of the argument, get over your fixation, and imagine that I CF inno. What will that CF tell you (other than game's probably over, if we're sticking with "today is D-Day again" scenario)?

I agree that today should be treated as D-day, given we have no scum CFs.

If you CF inno my guess would be for Jalan or Hanas as partner, Ghennan seems less likely.

You did start shying away from Hanas, but scum distancing or ditching a symp is hardly rare, particularly after they've been pulled up for connections.

If there are two scum, what pairs are actually believable, and is there a common factor? To me, this seems a pretty important consideration for today.

In regards to Jalan asking why Cast was killed, the two most obvious reasons would be that he has few connections (much like Pallid, interestingly unlike Ultama), and that he's not a likely lynch for today after we've just had a coaster lynch and it could be D-day, so other people are more useful to keep around.

Possible partnerships so far, IMO:

Trake-Ghennan
Trake-Hanas
Jalan-Fanderay
Jalan-Ghennan
Hanas-Fanderay


Yes I'm including myself, why not. The Jalan-Ghennan option isn't going to be valid for much longer though - I'm putting together a Ghennan case in another tab

Hmm, any particular reason you include Jalan-Fanderay but not Jalan-Hanas?

He tried to lynch me...?

[Trake]

Oh yeah, that'd do it

Been working too hard I'm afraid...

[Jalan]

So Ghennan.

I'll admit I haven't really been paying much attention to Ghennan most of the game. His posts were usually pretty far apart even when he was posting regularly so I couldn't follow along as easily.

Re-reading the whole thing, Ghennan looks to me like someone who in the first couple days was almost coasting - few posts, spaced widely apart, mostly without major substance. I say almost because Ghennan made sure that he voted on day 1 and on day 2, as well as making a few posts of asking questions or probing into things.

His day 1 vote is pretty much just the same reasons as the previous votes and comments:

Ghennan, on 22 October 2013 - 11:18 PM, said:

Wow, that post is ringing so many bells for me. The self-pity, the 'acceptance' if we lynch him, the 'lynch me if you have to' schtick. It's making me want to vote for him more.

I'll be around on and off for the next few hours, but I'll vote now to see if we can get something going.

vote ultama

Here's his day 2 vote. This was the second vote on Fanderay, after Trake who soon removed.

Ghennan, on 24 October 2013 - 10:06 AM, said:

So, after a catch-up, I'm not really sure why Jalan stuck in my mind, but on a re-read I don't find him particularly scummy. And Cast has posted basically nothing. Monok's modkill has kind of taken the wind out of my sails, I was fairly sure we were on to something with Monok and Ultama, and suddenly it's all up in the air again.

Grasp is ringing some bells for me, and that drive-by vote was pretty scummy, but I need more time to articulate what it is that bothers me, and right now I need to go to bed.

I'm leaving my vote on Fanderay, because I think the link is interesting, and I need more time to decide how I feel about Ultama.

Vote Fanderay.

Night all!

It's much earlier this time, but he has almost no comments on any of the cases or goings-ons before this post. This was a contention yesterday, where Trake said it was a drive-by vote and Ghennan argued that he was online and posting before this vote. He was, but the 7 posts of the previous page (page 7) are almost entirely substanceless and none lead into the reasonings given here at all. He also drops suspicions of five other players in this same post, hedging his bets for later in the day, before disappearing for a while.

Ghennan won't show up again until the end of day, and when he does he feels the need to further defend his own vote, though he can still reiterate no better reasoning for his vote except that he finds the situation "interesting":

Ghennan, on 25 October 2013 - 11:15 AM, said:

So, I can see how my last vote could be considered scummy, but there were a few reasons I had for where I voted. The post I had made before that had been simply throwing a few names out to see what kind of consensus we could get about votes. When I had time to read back it seemed that my suspicions were unfounded, so I didn't vote that way. The whole day I had been focussed on Ultama and MO, and when MO was modkilled it took the wind out of my sails. I didn't have any strong feelings about anyone, but I wanted to leave a vote before I went to bed, so I felt it best to follow a vote that had already been made, as I didn't have time to build my own case.

Right now, it's past midnight on a Friday night, so I'm not going to make a case now. I'll definitely have time tomorrow before time out to return, so I'll see then what progress has been made, and share my suspicions about Grasp.

I do think it's interesting that Fanderay and Hanas have been linked, and since then they have both arrived and tried to start separate trains, so I'm happy with my vote where it is at the moment.

A half-dozen or so hours after that, it is near the end of day 2 and Grasp has now become the other possible train. Ghennan basically builds an entire case on Grasp, even though that's been already done and he's already at 4 votes. I won't overload this post with nested quotes by copying the whole thing but it is post 454 and then post 457, and then finally the actual vote in post 462:

Ghennan, on 25 October 2013 - 08:03 PM, said:

Well, Grasp has done nothing to convince me, or even defend himself at all, so I'm fine with this.

Vote Grasp.

(and then again in post 472 when he remembers to remove first)


^^that's day 2.


Day 3 is a whole different affair. Ghennan starts day 3 with a big push right out of the gates in the form of a case and vote on Fanderay:

Ghennan, on 28 October 2013 - 10:45 PM, said:

So, here's what's been bothering me about the previous day's voting. Fanderay starts getting some heat for being connected to Hanas. Hanas arrives, flails a bit, and then starts a totally new train on a "coaster".

Hanas, on 24 October 2013 - 01:23 PM, said:

You know what... let's just vote a coaster. This situation is damned unpleasant, and the mod-kills invite trouble by following too quickly with no info from them. In the current environment I'd rather lynch someone on whom I have absolutely no read whatsoever and who seems to like to keep it that way, despite a decent post count, than lynching someone on who some shades of grey are gathered and who at the least is being discussed.

Vote Jalan.

Now, without going in to my personal vendetta about low-poster witchhunts (seriously, voting low posters gives us no information!), Hanas accuses Jalan because Hanas has no read on him. But if we review Jalan's posting up to this point, he has asked a lot of questions and shared a few ideas about Ultama's crazy posting, suggested he is a symp and voted MO, which doesn't really look like coasting to me.


Next, Fanderay arrives, and to be fair he can't really defend himself against the case and votes, because it's almost entirely based on Hanas' behaviour. But his next action is to start yet another train, and I'm not entirely sure what his justification is.

Fanderay, on 24 October 2013 - 02:26 PM, said:

Everyone's being such busy worker bees.

just for the hell of it, here's the most cumulatively scummy player in my books. (after Ultama, but the problem with his case is that it is at least partially grounded in MO, and MO is now a perma-question-mark)

Ghennan, on 22 October 2013 - 11:18 PM, said:

Wow, that post is ringing so many bells for me. The self-pity, the 'acceptance' if we lynch him, the 'lynch me if you have to' schtick. It's making me want to vote for him more.

I'll be around on and off for the next few hours, but I'll vote now to see if we can get something going.

vote ultama

he never came back after that.

Ghennan, on 24 October 2013 - 10:06 AM, said:

So, after a catch-up, I'm not really sure why Jalan stuck in my mind, but on a re-read I don't find him particularly scummy. And Cast has posted basically nothing. Monok's modkill has kind of taken the wind out of my sails, I was fairly sure we were on to something with Monok and Ultama, and suddenly it's all up in the air again.

Grasp is ringing some bells for me, and that drive-by vote was pretty scummy, but I need more time to articulate what it is that bothers me, and right now I need to go to bed.

I'm leaving my vote on Fanderay, because I think the link is interesting, and I need more time to decide how I feel about Ultama.

Vote Fanderay.

Night all!

well, he's yet to come back. we shall see

remove vote

vote Ghennan

So apparently I'm scummy because on day one I said I would return and I didn't, and then on day two I voted for him?

This then leaves the vote count looking like this:

Path-Shaper, on 24 October 2013 - 03:03 PM, said:

It is Day 2. 2 hours and 37 minutes remaining.


9 players alive: Cast, Fanderay, Ghennan, Grasp, Hanas, Jalan, Lock, Trake, Ultama

5 votes to lynch, 5 votes to go to night.

2 votes Fanderay: Ghennan, Grasp
1 vote Jalan: Hanas
1 vote Ghennan: Fanderay
1 vote Ultama: Jalan

Players not voted: Cast, Lock, Trake, Ultama

That is a pretty big voting split, where previously there had only been one target suddenly there are four. Then later Ultama arrives, makes a case against Grasp and votes for him, and Fanderay immediately jumps on that train, and suddenly it takes off.

So this leaves me wondering if maybe Ultama was the symp after all. Up unitl that point, Ultama had said basically nothing about Grasp. But he returns to see that Fanderay is getting a bit of heat, and provides a new target that a few other people have already indicated suspicion about. Fanderay can't jump on Hanas' vote because they have already been linked, but Ultama's vote is a safe bet because they haven't been linked, and that way they can get an alternate train running.


This is seriously scummy.

Vote Fanderay

Trake, Fanderay and Hanas all criticize it a lot. Lock shows up and makes a big diversion, everyone ends up shifting to Lock. Ghennan's even got two posts much later once the Lock momentum is really building that to me read a bit like a low-key defence of Lock:

Ghennan, on 29 October 2013 - 08:53 PM, said:

I'll vote Lock if we get some consensus on him, because his play is annoying and unhelpful. He's actively resisting making any effort whatsoever, or even just posting a vote.

The thing is, though, his lynch doesn't really serve any purpose unless we actually think he is scum. If it's just because he's annoying, then it's just a waste on what is potentially D-day. He doesn't have any connections to anyone, so we wouldn't get anything useful out of his lynch even if it wasn't D-day.

Ghennan, on 29 October 2013 - 08:59 PM, said:

Also, I didn't see Lock's posting as being particularly defensive, just winding people up for shits and giggles. I'm not sure if it makes him more or less scummy.

So that's my lengthy and probably convoluted read up on Ghennan.

The sticking points to me are two things:

1 - Day 1 and 2, Ghennan kept a very low profile while still doing the right things to look active and contentful.

The reasonings for his votes are weak, he hedges out his bets with tons of light suspicions, and he adds defenses of his own actions even when he isn't really under pressure. I feel like the wide spacing of his posts and his efforts to have an early vote in day 2 really helped him to slip through the cracks and seem to have more content and activity than he really did.

2 - On Day 3, Ghennan suddenly flips around and pushes the thread with far more conviction than previously shown.

His Day 3 case was far more direct and large than any of his previous posts or additions. He seems to have made a suden switch from a very passive townie to trying to be a thread leader.

This reads to me like scum trying to avoid getting sucked into the more random lynches of day 1 and day-2-after-no-lynch-day-1, then coming out to steer the thread and be more active to avoid coasting accusations. This would be a concern for Ghennan as on day 2 there was several coasting accusations and votes, and Ghennan's original early vote on Fanderay didn't create a successful train and he had to switch at the last minute.


Lastly, yesterday's deflection of attention from Ghennan to Lock has me suspicious now, even though I didn't really catch it at the time. Lock seemingly came out of nowhere to make a big fuss for little reason, and Ghennan then began to seemingly support Lock a little. The easy answer would be then that Lock was a symp and Ghennan the killer, with Lock making a desperate move to keep attention off Ghennan. Whether Lock was or was not really a symp, Ghennan's reluctance to vote Lock could be Ghennan trying to avoid lynching a potential symp. Otherwise there's not much point in Ghennan as a townie being reluctant - if either you or another person will be lynched, and you know you're innocent so town lynching you is bad, you shouldn't be reluctant to lynch the other guy when there's a certainty of failure if they lynch you and at least some chance of success for the other guy.

Lastly, I find Lock's send-off to Ghennan before he dies interesting:

Lock, on 29 October 2013 - 09:33 PM, said:

Vote Ghennan


you old smoothy pants

That's about it. It's definitely not an ironclad case - no slip ups or comma-gates that I can point out. But Ghennan reads the most like scum to me out of all of you, and these are my reasons why / how I see that possibility played out.

[Trake]

My issues with Ghennan as a lynch:

Who's the partner? You mentioned either me-Ghennan or you-Ghennan, and I know it's not me.

His summary+vote cases may not be particularly strong, but at the same time I don't know they're scummy. Defence of Lock isn't particularly scummy either. I don't think scum defending a possible symp is likely, maybe a bit of defence for a something he knows will turn up inno is more likely, but really he's got another candidate he'd rather lynch, so he's going to have reasons he thinks that a different lynch isn't so good. For me it's only his day 2 vote I'm currently thinking is particularly dubious, though activity picking up could be interesting it didn't strike me at the time so I'll need to look back.

[Jalan]

Trake, on 30 October 2013 - 07:48 PM, said:

Who's the partner? You mentioned either me-Ghennan or you-Ghennan, and I know it's not me.

Togg or MO.

Or there is no partner, Bernard GUI was some sort of special role that balances out a lone killer. Maybe with symp inheritance?

With no modkill CFs there's lots of possibilities so I'm just focusing on scummy behaviour as much as I can, without requiring that I can partner the person with someone.

[Trake]

Jalan, on 30 October 2013 - 08:03 PM, said:

Trake, on 30 October 2013 - 07:48 PM, said:

Who's the partner? You mentioned either me-Ghennan or you-Ghennan, and I know it's not me.

Togg or MO.

Or there is no partner, Bernard GUI was some sort of special role that balances out a lone killer. Maybe with symp inheritance?

With no modkill CFs there's lots of possibilities so I'm just focusing on scummy behaviour as much as I can, without requiring that I can partner the person with someone.

Can't get behind this personally.

Bernard GUI idea doesn't fit with TMDI level imo.

Playing like there is only 1 scum living is against worst case scenario, and a bad idea in this case I think. It's better to play like there are two, because if there is only one, we can go down that road tomorrow, so it's best for today to try and hit someone who could be in a two.

I also don't want to buy into Togg or MO as a possibility for the above reason, and well as due to the uncertainty of it by nature, the fact that statistically it's not that likely, and because I don't think it should be affecting the game.

[Fanderay]

I realize i said I'd catch up and all, but I'm having a really bad day at work, due to incredible headache and renovations going on simultaneously above AND below our office.

If this wasn't D-Day, i'd suggest you lynch me and get all that pent up frustration out of the way. Since we're assuming it is, I'm at a bit of a loss.

Ghennan did a lot of groundwork, last night, but i'm not sure which way to interpret.

frankly, I'm tempted to vote Hanas, because he's the only player that's not tip-toeing around lynches, but given it's been forever since he last posted, i'm worried he's on a modkill clock.

[Jalan]

Trake, on 30 October 2013 - 08:12 PM, said:

Jalan, on 30 October 2013 - 08:03 PM, said:

Trake, on 30 October 2013 - 07:48 PM, said:

Who's the partner? You mentioned either me-Ghennan or you-Ghennan, and I know it's not me.

Togg or MO.

Or there is no partner, Bernard GUI was some sort of special role that balances out a lone killer. Maybe with symp inheritance?

With no modkill CFs there's lots of possibilities so I'm just focusing on scummy behaviour as much as I can, without requiring that I can partner the person with someone.

Can't get behind this personally.

Bernard GUI idea doesn't fit with TMDI level imo.

Playing like there is only 1 scum living is against worst case scenario, and a bad idea in this case I think. It's better to play like there are two, because if there is only one, we can go down that road tomorrow, so it's best for today to try and hit someone who could be in a two.

I also don't want to buy into Togg or MO as a possibility for the above reason, and well as due to the uncertainty of it by nature, the fact that statistically it's not that likely, and because I don't think it should be affecting the game.

I'm not advocating playing as if there is only 1 scum. WCS is that there are 2 and that is how we ought to play. But whether those 2 scum are two killers or a killer and symp is both conceivable.

If you disregard Togg and MO then you have to believe that we either only ever had 2 killers or that at some point we eliminated a symp. That's fine, but in that case who do you think it was?

Personally I don't want to disregard the possibility of only one killer (but still 2 scum) left, because Ghennan seems so much scummier to me than Fanderay, and the only partnership I can really see is Hanas-Fanderay. Maaaaybe Hanas-Trake I could see too, and that's the next thing on my list to go back over with in mind.

[Jalan]

Fanderay, on 30 October 2013 - 08:34 PM, said:

frankly, I'm tempted to vote Hanas, because he's the only player that's not tip-toeing around lynches, but given it's been forever since he last posted, i'm worried he's on a modkill clock.

It's not been that long. Maybe about 18 hours since he last posted? I don't think he's in danger of any modkill.