[Tattersail_]

That is a good analysis. Why did you include Morgoth and CF in it? Are they another option?

[Tapper]

 Ganoes Paran, on 28 November 2013 - 09:26 AM, said:

That is a good analysis. Why did you include Morgoth and CF in it? Are they another option?

Without them passing, I would hardly be free to act, right - they are my neighbours after all, and Morghy has two cruisers sitting on our shared border?

[Tattersail_]

 Tapper, on 28 November 2013 - 09:39 AM, said:

 Ganoes Paran, on 28 November 2013 - 09:26 AM, said:

That is a good analysis. Why did you include Morgoth and CF in it? Are they another option?

Without them passing, I would hardly be free to act, right - they are my neighbours after all, and Morghy has two cruisers sitting on our shared border?

I know taking the center or attacking Gnaw are two options, I was pointing out that you did consider the other alliance, the one that will probably max out their science and build monuments as you have heard. They plan on getting great tech "next round" ie the Gluon computers for example. This round they cannot do many upgrades/moves/reactions. Isn't this the prime time for you to knock them back a peg? IH is tied up and will be with Twelve. I am engaged with Khell. D'rek and Gnaw are going to be in a little battle or two. That leaves you. You are the only person that can push their march to victory back at this stage. With the tech they are going to have they will be pretty indestructible. If you want to win then they should be a concern for your alliance as well as ours.

Looking at the board, I think it may already be too late. The choke point is pretty well defended and you would need to upgrade your dread further to attack Morgoth. I am just pointing out there isn't just two options. What is to stop Morgoth from attacking you once you move your ships elsewhere?

[Tattersail_]

IH are you around? What hexes do you think Gnaw should move to for maximum damage against Khell and D'rek? I have a great plan I want to discuss with you on my go. Involving Twelve and Khell. It all depends on the next few moves.

[Imperial Historian]

I've been trying to think of ways to hit cf/morgoth, but am struggling. Gnaw has quite a few options, really depends what everyone does next move. They have so many discs!

[Tapper]

 Ganoes Paran, on 28 November 2013 - 09:51 AM, said:

 Tapper, on 28 November 2013 - 09:39 AM, said:

 Ganoes Paran, on 28 November 2013 - 09:26 AM, said:

That is a good analysis. Why did you include Morgoth and CF in it? Are they another option?

Without them passing, I would hardly be free to act, right - they are my neighbours after all, and Morghy has two cruisers sitting on our shared border?

I know taking the center or attacking Gnaw are two options, I was pointing out that you did consider the other alliance, the one that will probably max out their science and build monuments as you have heard. They plan on getting great tech "next round" ie the Gluon computers for example. This round they cannot do many upgrades/moves/reactions. Isn't this the prime time for you to knock them back a peg? IH is tied up and will be with Twelve. I am engaged with Khell. D'rek and Gnaw are going to be in a little battle or two. That leaves you. You are the only person that can push their march to victory back at this stage. With the tech they are going to have they will be pretty indestructible. If you want to win then they should be a concern for your alliance as well as ours.

Looking at the board, I think it may already be too late. The choke point is pretty well defended and you would need to upgrade your dread further to attack Morgoth. I am just pointing out there isn't just two options. What is to stop Morgoth from attacking you once you move your ships elsewhere?

For me to attack Morgoth or Morgoth to attack me, there is no victory or meaningful results. There is just overextension and very minor gains compared to the effort sunk into it. Note how I also do not have neutron bombs and how Gnaw would gleefully bomb my worlds in my wake.
Right now, Morgoth ties up some ships of mine and I tie up some of his, as well as having CF build starbases on the border.
I think he might come calling if I take the centre - but it looks status quo until then.

[Tattersail_]

 Tapper, on 28 November 2013 - 10:30 AM, said:

 Ganoes Paran, on 28 November 2013 - 09:51 AM, said:

 Tapper, on 28 November 2013 - 09:39 AM, said:

 Ganoes Paran, on 28 November 2013 - 09:26 AM, said:

That is a good analysis. Why did you include Morgoth and CF in it? Are they another option?

Without them passing, I would hardly be free to act, right - they are my neighbours after all, and Morghy has two cruisers sitting on our shared border?

I know taking the center or attacking Gnaw are two options, I was pointing out that you did consider the other alliance, the one that will probably max out their science and build monuments as you have heard. They plan on getting great tech "next round" ie the Gluon computers for example. This round they cannot do many upgrades/moves/reactions. Isn't this the prime time for you to knock them back a peg? IH is tied up and will be with Twelve. I am engaged with Khell. D'rek and Gnaw are going to be in a little battle or two. That leaves you. You are the only person that can push their march to victory back at this stage. With the tech they are going to have they will be pretty indestructible. If you want to win then they should be a concern for your alliance as well as ours.

Looking at the board, I think it may already be too late. The choke point is pretty well defended and you would need to upgrade your dread further to attack Morgoth. I am just pointing out there isn't just two options. What is to stop Morgoth from attacking you once you move your ships elsewhere?

For me to attack Morgoth or Morgoth to attack me, there is no victory or meaningful results. There is just overextension and very minor gains compared to the effort sunk into it. Note how I also do not have neutron bombs and how Gnaw would gleefully bomb my worlds in my wake.
Right now, Morgoth ties up some ships of mine and I tie up some of his, as well as having CF build starbases on the border.
I think he might come calling if I take the centre - but it looks status quo until then.

You move to the center and gnaw can wipe out your ships and retreat. You go for Gnaw and you need to build quite a few ships otherwise he slips past you.

[Tapper]

In each case, the correct move is to:

Build 2 interceptors in 102.

[Tapper]

 Ganoes Paran, on 28 November 2013 - 10:37 AM, said:

 Tapper, on 28 November 2013 - 10:30 AM, said:

 Ganoes Paran, on 28 November 2013 - 09:51 AM, said:

 Tapper, on 28 November 2013 - 09:39 AM, said:

 Ganoes Paran, on 28 November 2013 - 09:26 AM, said:

That is a good analysis. Why did you include Morgoth and CF in it? Are they another option?

Without them passing, I would hardly be free to act, right - they are my neighbours after all, and Morghy has two cruisers sitting on our shared border?

I know taking the center or attacking Gnaw are two options, I was pointing out that you did consider the other alliance, the one that will probably max out their science and build monuments as you have heard. They plan on getting great tech "next round" ie the Gluon computers for example. This round they cannot do many upgrades/moves/reactions. Isn't this the prime time for you to knock them back a peg? IH is tied up and will be with Twelve. I am engaged with Khell. D'rek and Gnaw are going to be in a little battle or two. That leaves you. You are the only person that can push their march to victory back at this stage. With the tech they are going to have they will be pretty indestructible. If you want to win then they should be a concern for your alliance as well as ours.

Looking at the board, I think it may already be too late. The choke point is pretty well defended and you would need to upgrade your dread further to attack Morgoth. I am just pointing out there isn't just two options. What is to stop Morgoth from attacking you once you move your ships elsewhere?

For me to attack Morgoth or Morgoth to attack me, there is no victory or meaningful results. There is just overextension and very minor gains compared to the effort sunk into it. Note how I also do not have neutron bombs and how Gnaw would gleefully bomb my worlds in my wake.
Right now, Morgoth ties up some ships of mine and I tie up some of his, as well as having CF build starbases on the border.
I think he might come calling if I take the centre - but it looks status quo until then.

You move to the center and gnaw can wipe out your ships and retreat. You go for Gnaw and you need to build quite a few ships otherwise he slips past you.

The thing is, Gnaw has 2 discs to remove before he's bankrupt. I can burn more, and that's not even mentioning D'rek.

[cerveza_fiesta]

whew....probably will be able to do my planned orbital move now. No worries about Tapper invading if he's not putting material right on my doorstep.

Not that I seriously doubted your intentions Tapper...It's just with all this "I can't see anyone winning except Morgoth and CF" talk flying around, you can see why I might be hedging my bets

[D'rek]

 Tapper, on 28 November 2013 - 09:01 AM, said:

OK.

The way I see it.


Strengths: contained territory with few access. Spread Point Totals. Connected territories. Lots of discs to burn.
Weaknesses: fleets. Our ship sturdiness combined with a very low material production means we're bad in wars of attrition. Very few ships on the board and a big loss of fleets in turn 2.

Dangers: Gnaw bombing one or more of our worlds in order to bankrupt us (starting with either your shrine system, or Khell's homeworld). problem: cloaking device.

This turn, you and I have our hands free. Khell is engaged abroad.
Morgoth & CF have passed. Gnaw will be done in one or two actions.

Turn order nest round will likely ((99% certain) be Morghy, CF, Tapper, Khell, D'rek.

Expectations:
1) Next turn, IH will probably play for the centre.
2) Gnaw can either help him with ships, or he will build interceptors to neutron bomb worlds/ use cloaking device to pin our ships.

My suggestions are either.
1) we try to take the centre this round. With 4 inties, I have roughly a 90% chance of killing the Ancient - holding it after that will be a different story.

Or:

2) we try to take out Gnaw now and defend Khell's homeworld.

Looking at the latest board, Gnaw needs to at least do a move of his interceptors, and if he has to fight he really needs to do an upgrade, too. That will put him at -2 money. He'd probably remove Delta Eridani to pay for it. But he can't put down any discs, and if he's planning to get tricksy with more moves that costs him even more. Even if Khell takes his homeworld, that's still only one disc he gets back.

So maybe Gnaw can do some crafty sneak moves but if he does I think it'll end up costing him a ton anyways. Let's not worry too much about totally stopping him.

I've got a lot of possible moves left, so I will build some interceptors, too. If Gnaw goes for mine or Khell's homeworld, I will intercept him. Just make sure you don't leave him a path to move the Aldebaran interceptor to your homeworld, since he can do that in one move. If he only goes for Khell's eastern hexes, it's probably too far for me to bother with but also not much gain for him, so I can grab a hex from Tatts or attack one of Gnaw's hexes.

That means the GC is all yours! I think your odds of holding it next round are pretty fair. If Morgoth and CF both go for Gluons, then you can grab starbases and plop a bunch of them down.

[Tapper]

 cerveza_fiesta, on 28 November 2013 - 01:06 PM, said:

whew....probably will be able to do my planned orbital move now. No worries about Tapper invading if he's not putting material right on my doorstep.

Not that I seriously doubted your intentions Tapper...It's just with all this "I can't see anyone winning except Morgoth and CF" talk flying around, you can see why I might be hedging my bets

No problemo. I'd wish Morghy would remove those cruisers, but... it's not a perfect world.

You guys are in a very good position, but I don't believe in the whole "CF + Morghy are bound to win, you MUST attack them, Tapper!" thing.

I believe the whole "CF + Morghy are bound to win, you MUST attack them, Tapper!" thing is mostly used to keep the centre for the Mechanema at minimum cost and tie Gnaw to D'rek, with options to enlist you guys in attacking my alliance. The fact that you look like you might win is mostly down to not having an enemy.

[Tapper]

 D, on 28 November 2013 - 01:57 PM, said:

 Tapper, on 28 November 2013 - 09:01 AM, said:

OK.

The way I see it.


Strengths: contained territory with few access. Spread Point Totals. Connected territories. Lots of discs to burn.
Weaknesses: fleets. Our ship sturdiness combined with a very low material production means we're bad in wars of attrition. Very few ships on the board and a big loss of fleets in turn 2.

Dangers: Gnaw bombing one or more of our worlds in order to bankrupt us (starting with either your shrine system, or Khell's homeworld). problem: cloaking device.

This turn, you and I have our hands free. Khell is engaged abroad.
Morgoth & CF have passed. Gnaw will be done in one or two actions.

Turn order nest round will likely ((99% certain) be Morghy, CF, Tapper, Khell, D'rek.

Expectations:
1) Next turn, IH will probably play for the centre.
2) Gnaw can either help him with ships, or he will build interceptors to neutron bomb worlds/ use cloaking device to pin our ships.

My suggestions are either.
1) we try to take the centre this round. With 4 inties, I have roughly a 90% chance of killing the Ancient - holding it after that will be a different story.

Or:

2) we try to take out Gnaw now and defend Khell's homeworld.

Looking at the latest board, Gnaw needs to at least do a move of his interceptors, and if he has to fight he really needs to do an upgrade, too. That will put him at -2 money. He'd probably remove Delta Eridani to pay for it. But he can't put down any discs, and if he's planning to get tricksy with more moves that costs him even more. Even if Khell takes his homeworld, that's still only one disc he gets back.

So maybe Gnaw can do some crafty sneak moves but if he does I think it'll end up costing him a ton anyways. Let's not worry too much about totally stopping him.

I've got a lot of possible moves left, so I will build some interceptors, too. If Gnaw goes for mine or Khell's homeworld, I will intercept him. Just make sure you don't leave him a path to move the Aldebaran interceptor to your homeworld, since he can do that in one move. If he only goes for Khell's eastern hexes, it's probably too far for me to bother with but also not much gain for him, so I can grab a hex from Tatts or attack one of Gnaw's hexes.

That means the GC is all yours! I think your odds of holding it next round are pretty fair. If Morgoth and CF both go for Gluons, then you can grab starbases and plop a bunch of them down.

I'll aim for the centre, then.
Well, at worst Gnaw will fly his inties into the GC as well, as a suicide move to sink my chances, or into 102 itself to pin enough of my ships to make the attack impractical. I am not planning to strip my homeworld bare, either - at worst I'll be forced into a pass before I attack the centre because it becomes impractical to do so, but that should give me a good concentration of force for next turn, anyway.

[D'rek]

 Tapper, on 28 November 2013 - 02:05 PM, said:

 D, on 28 November 2013 - 01:57 PM, said:

 Tapper, on 28 November 2013 - 09:01 AM, said:

OK.

The way I see it.


Strengths: contained territory with few access. Spread Point Totals. Connected territories. Lots of discs to burn.
Weaknesses: fleets. Our ship sturdiness combined with a very low material production means we're bad in wars of attrition. Very few ships on the board and a big loss of fleets in turn 2.

Dangers: Gnaw bombing one or more of our worlds in order to bankrupt us (starting with either your shrine system, or Khell's homeworld). problem: cloaking device.

This turn, you and I have our hands free. Khell is engaged abroad.
Morgoth & CF have passed. Gnaw will be done in one or two actions.

Turn order nest round will likely ((99% certain) be Morghy, CF, Tapper, Khell, D'rek.

Expectations:
1) Next turn, IH will probably play for the centre.
2) Gnaw can either help him with ships, or he will build interceptors to neutron bomb worlds/ use cloaking device to pin our ships.

My suggestions are either.
1) we try to take the centre this round. With 4 inties, I have roughly a 90% chance of killing the Ancient - holding it after that will be a different story.

Or:

2) we try to take out Gnaw now and defend Khell's homeworld.

Looking at the latest board, Gnaw needs to at least do a move of his interceptors, and if he has to fight he really needs to do an upgrade, too. That will put him at -2 money. He'd probably remove Delta Eridani to pay for it. But he can't put down any discs, and if he's planning to get tricksy with more moves that costs him even more. Even if Khell takes his homeworld, that's still only one disc he gets back.

So maybe Gnaw can do some crafty sneak moves but if he does I think it'll end up costing him a ton anyways. Let's not worry too much about totally stopping him.

I've got a lot of possible moves left, so I will build some interceptors, too. If Gnaw goes for mine or Khell's homeworld, I will intercept him. Just make sure you don't leave him a path to move the Aldebaran interceptor to your homeworld, since he can do that in one move. If he only goes for Khell's eastern hexes, it's probably too far for me to bother with but also not much gain for him, so I can grab a hex from Tatts or attack one of Gnaw's hexes.

That means the GC is all yours! I think your odds of holding it next round are pretty fair. If Morgoth and CF both go for Gluons, then you can grab starbases and plop a bunch of them down.

I'll aim for the centre, then.
Well, at worst Gnaw will fly his inties into the GC as well, as a suicide move to sink my chances, or into 102 itself to pin enough of my ships to make the attack impractical. I am not planning to strip my homeworld bare, either - at worst I'll be forced into a pass before I attack the centre because it becomes impractical to do so, but that should give me a good concentration of force for next turn, anyway.

Depends on how accurate his missiles end up being. If he upgrades the electron computer onto his ints, could be troublesome, and you don't have improved hull.

On the other hand, if he does that it means he's not doing anything elsewhere which is also good for us.

[D'rek]

Build 2 interceptors in Beta Lyrae and 1 in Geminga

[Tattersail_]

I cannot move until Khell takes his turn.

[Tattersail_]

Tapper i don't see why you have placed computers on your interceptors. You have to roll 6's regardless whether it is there or not. The shield would be a better option. That way the GCDS would also need to roll 6's.

[Tapper]

 Ganoes Paran, on 28 November 2013 - 02:46 PM, said:

Tapper i don't see why you have placed computers on your interceptors. You have to roll 6's regardless whether it is there or not. The shield would be a better option. That way the GCDS would also need to roll 6's.

"Caporal, the Galaxy questions the design of the Macaque fighter design, specifically with regard to its ability to truly project power unto the behemoth that guards the Galactic Centre. What is your answer?"
"We have plans. The current layout of the Macaque is to swiftly deal with any of Chmee Gnaw's missile boats before they withdraw. As experts in the withdrawal, we know that the best way to see strategic withdrawal undone, is if the enemy has guided fire. If Chmee Gnaw is determined to use hit and run on the masters of that tactic, we will show him what we learned."

[Tattersail_]

 Tapper, on 28 November 2013 - 03:45 PM, said:

 Ganoes Paran, on 28 November 2013 - 02:46 PM, said:

Tapper i don't see why you have placed computers on your interceptors. You have to roll 6's regardless whether it is there or not. The shield would be a better option. That way the GCDS would also need to roll 6's.

"Caporal, the Galaxy questions the design of the Macaque fighter design, specifically with regard to its ability to truly project power unto the behemoth that guards the Galactic Centre. What is your answer?"
"We have plans. The current layout of the Macaque is to swiftly deal with any of Chmee Gnaw's missile boats before they withdraw. As experts in the withdrawal, we know that the best way to see strategic withdrawal undone, is if the enemy has guided fire. If Chmee Gnaw is determined to use hit and run on the masters of that tactic, we will show him what we learned."

Interesting. You have the capacity to build 3 interceptors. Your one in 239 would require 2 solid moves to make the center. So we count that out. So you build two interceptors, then you'd have to build another one using another disc. -7 upkeep. Unless you are going to try for the center with only 3 interceptors? So let's say 4 interceptors is your goal. That means another 2 discs to move all of them into the GC. - 13 upkeep. So at this stage you are expecting to win against the GC and colonise for money the grey planets. That would put you at 12 with -13 upkeep. You'd want to bankrupt a hex. You have already used your Pulsar this turn/round to upgrade. Can you do a move as well or not? You do have two hexes in which you can bankrupt. To suit this.

You have no guarantees that you'd take the center, you would need two hits to take out the GC. That is 2 6's out of 4 shots. Your computers have no affect against the GC. Then the GC gets to respond and can roll a 5 or a 6 to hit. The GC fires first because it has = initiative and is the defender. 5 or a 6 hits. It has two attempts. If it hits which is 33% chance on each roll then one interceptor destroyed. Your reply would be needing 2 6's out of 3 rolls. That is 1/18 odds isn't it? If not the odds are low. You say 90% chance?? How?

[Morgoth]

How, Tapper? How!

This post has been edited by Morgoth: 28 November 2013 - 04:35 PM