[Tellan]

Ultama, on 27 June 2013 - 04:17 PM, said:

Tellan, on 27 June 2013 - 03:21 PM, said:

NOT to distract from questioning Tiam, as I think it's a good point they could be bullshitting the "I'm Alera" thingy, but I also wanted to look at yesterday's events:

Since I didn't feel the Fener lynch-attempt was reasonable after he started tossing us info (as well as the most likely idea that Vord were on the train), I looked over the lynch train and noticed Trake wasn't listed first? Though he did start the pressure:

You didn't think the lynch was valid but you voted a "hammer" at the wire.


Going with the theory that at least one of the votes on Fener wasn't valid:

Remove Vote


Vote Tellan

I was very open about me hammering regardless, for the sake of a CF. I, like others, had no way of knowing whether the multiple alt thing would affect the lynch or not, and because Fener looked busy typing up explanations instead of getting ready to self-hammer as stated, I didn't want to risk a guarantee of a no-lynch and at least try. A CF would've been something at least.

But I see where you're coming from. I just think it's going to be hard to really point at any one person and confidently state, "ah this is the 2nd alt!" or whatever.

Is this in reaction to me asking Trake similar things?

[Okaros]

Trake, on 27 June 2013 - 05:37 PM, said:

Okaros, on 27 June 2013 - 05:33 PM, said:

Trake, on 27 June 2013 - 05:29 PM, said:

I'm going to go on record and say I think Tiam is legit.
I'm also going to Vote Barghast
just because he's too quiet and I don't like that alt.

Derailing much?

Just like Gait yesterday, you dont give a reason for why you are defending someone, but unlike Gait, you go further and drop a vote on an alt that is completely unmentioned so far, with no explanation. In case Tiam is Alera, id rather lynch trake first to test if hes defending her because shes alera, or because shes vord.

Vote Trake

Barghast has two posts. The same as someone who was modkilled for inactivity. He's being too quiet. He's been mentioned earlier as being far too quiet, as well.
Also, didn't you call me out on voting for Gait when I should have stuck with Fener because he was the one being defended?

I did. But I was much more convinced Fener was vord(at the time) than i am that Tiam is. Id rather not kill a potential fury buffer until im sure theyre not one. I wasnt on when fener revealed, so i didnt feel any real hesitation at the time i voted, which was before Fener revealed he had a fire fury.

[Tellan]

Trake, on 27 June 2013 - 05:37 PM, said:

Okaros, on 27 June 2013 - 05:33 PM, said:

Trake, on 27 June 2013 - 05:29 PM, said:

I'm going to go on record and say I think Tiam is legit.
I'm also going to Vote Barghast
just because he's too quiet and I don't like that alt.

Derailing much?

Just like Gait yesterday, you dont give a reason for why you are defending someone, but unlike Gait, you go further and drop a vote on an alt that is completely unmentioned so far, with no explanation. In case Tiam is Alera, id rather lynch trake first to test if hes defending her because shes alera, or because shes vord.

Vote Trake

Barghast has two posts. The same as someone who was modkilled for inactivity. He's being too quiet. He's been mentioned earlier as being far too quiet, as well.
Also, didn't you call me out on voting for Gait when I should have stuck with Fener because he was the one being defended?

Even though I'm not really big on trusting Trake rn, he does have a point - we all seem to agree that Vord's possible 2nd alts will be low-posters, etc. etc. Not sure if it's convicing enough for a vote yet, but maybe getting Barghast to talk more will tell us something?

[Emurlahn]

Just trying to take some conservative guesses here... but the best guess as to who moved to Shuar had to be whoever was in Elinarch. If my theory is correct that bonuses show cumulative per faction as individual "plusses," and the blue line is very restrictive, then it seems reasonable that it wasn't Calderon (5 spaces). It could be Alera Imperia, but I feel like they have to have moved to Ceres.

Antillus moving to Elinarch seems very reasonable. It was +2 before on Antillus, and it's now gone. It's now +2 + 2 on Elinarch. Not sure where that other +2 came from. Calderon? That's 4 spaces away.

Ceres gained 2, from two different factions by my theory. One is probably Alera Imperia (one space away). The other would most likely be from Calderon (3 spaces away) or some other power that has recently come active. Didn't someone say Calderon was probably the seat of power for the Rebels? I don't know the books.

Calderon lost 5. The really interesting thing about Calderon is that all of its Infestation strength seems to come from Fortifications. Notice that it's 0/21 today and all 21 come from fortifications (20 + 1). Yesterday was 26 (25 + 1). What happens if everyone with fortifications leaves Calderon? Is it automatically infested for having 0/0? Why does it not have any base strength? It seems very likely that there is some kind of multiplicative effect from Calderon's fortifiers. Each one gets + 5 while they are together, for example. That would mean 5 yesterday, 4 today. Plus one other person from a different faction with a +1.

Net results?

Elinarch > Shuar
Antillus > Elinarch (either 2 people, or one person with a +2)
Alera Imperia > Ceres
Calderon > Ceres (maybe the +5 turns into a +1 when they are separate)

Math wise, that works out pretty well. Yesterday we had +2, +1, +1, +25 (assuming +5 x 5), +1. Today we have +1, +2, +2, +1, +1, + 20 (assuming +5 x 4), +1. If you take the +2 from Antillus as a single unit (either one person or two people acting in concert), you can add up to 9 total people/units with fortification abilities yesterday. Today we have 10 with the additional +2 in Elinarch. Could be two people went to Elinarch and that activated each other's fortifications, for example, which caused them to go from +0 to +1 each.

[Emurlahn]

Trake, on 27 June 2013 - 05:33 PM, said:

Emurlahn, on 27 June 2013 - 05:30 PM, said:

The strangest part to me is why some fortifications are listed as + 1 + 1 and others are listed as +2. The best answer I have is that multiple factions have members that can add fortification and the numbers are shown in aggregate-by-faction.

Thus, on day 1, Antillus had 2 in the same faction, Elinarch had 1, Alera Imperia had 1, and Calderon had... I have no idea. 25 + 1 yesterday, 20 + 1 today? Maybe a multiplicative effect? Like, when the faction members are together, it's 5 each or something? That would mean 5 from one faction and 1 from a different faction yesterday, but only 4 from the first faction today.

I think by looking at where the fortifications are, we can discern where people have moved.
Shuar: It appears that whoever in the Vord is responsible for creation of infestation counters (the queen?) is sitting on Shuar and firmly entrenched there. They added 3 yesterday. Someone has also moved onto Shuar, which almost certainly means they came across the blue line from Elinarch. It could be whoever was previously in Elinarch giving it +1, or it could be someone from Antillus who could move 2.

Antilus: Whoever was on here is gone now. It could have been one person who gave 2 Fortification, or two people who gave 1 each (and by my theory, were on the same faction). Where did they go?

Elinarch: Lost a -1 and gained +2 + 2. Could be whoever was here stayed here and gained someone else to boost to +2... but the other +2 is a mystery. The only other bonuses were previously on Antillus, Alera Imperia, and Calderon... which makes me think that the Antillus bonus moved to Elinarch. Calderon is 4 spaces away. Loyalists have big movement abilities, so maybe they were involved?

Ceres: Gained + 1 + 1. One guess is Elinarch and Alera Imperia fortifiers moved here... but if Antillus moved to Elinarch, then who moved to Shuar? Calderon? That is 5 spaces. That's a ton. That would be insane if someone could move across basically the whole map in one turn.

Alera Imperia: Someone left here.

Calderon: At least one person left here.

Fortifications are likely NAs. Some characters might have passive abilities that add to their fortification NAs; so, from +1 to +2 under certain circumstances.

There we go, Earth furies add fortifications! That has to be the cause of the +2 on Elinarch. The +2 from Antillus must be a NA (or two NAs) that added fortifications. That means we still have 9 people who give fortifications is my guess.

[Monok Ochem]

Emurlahn, on 27 June 2013 - 05:30 PM, said:

The strangest part to me is why some fortifications are listed as + 1 + 1 and others are listed as +2. The best answer I have is that multiple factions have members that can add fortification and the numbers are shown in aggregate-by-faction.

Thus, on day 1, Antillus had 2 in the same faction, Elinarch had 1, Alera Imperia had 1, and Calderon had... I have no idea. 25 + 1 yesterday, 20 + 1 today? Maybe a multiplicative effect? Like, when the faction members are together, it's 5 each or something? That would mean 5 from one faction and 1 from a different faction yesterday, but only 4 from the first faction today.

I think by looking at where the fortifications are, we can discern where people have moved.
Shuar: It appears that whoever in the Vord is responsible for creation of infestation counters (the queen?) is sitting on Shuar and firmly entrenched there. They added 3 yesterday. Someone has also moved onto Shuar, which almost certainly means they came across the blue line from Elinarch. It could be whoever was previously in Elinarch giving it +1, or it could be someone from Antillus who could move 2.

Antilus: Whoever was on here is gone now. It could have been one person who gave 2 Fortification, or two people who gave 1 each (and by my theory, were on the same faction). Where did they go?

Elinarch: Lost a -1 and gained +2 + 2. Could be whoever was here stayed here and gained someone else to boost to +2... but the other +2 is a mystery. The only other bonuses were previously on Antillus, Alera Imperia, and Calderon... which makes me think that the Antillus bonus moved to Elinarch. Calderon is 4 spaces away. Loyalists have big movement abilities, so maybe they were involved?

Ceres: Gained + 1 + 1. One guess is Elinarch and Alera Imperia fortifiers moved here... but if Antillus moved to Elinarch, then who moved to Shuar? Calderon? That is 5 spaces. That's a ton. That would be insane if someone could move across basically the whole map in one turn.

Alera Imperia: Someone left here.

Calderon: At least one person left here.

The change in Antilus and Elinarch fortifications were due to Mod Error. They posted this. I believe it was wrongly labeled 1 to both, when it was suppose to be 2 to Elinarch. I also think there was a change to Ceres in the correction.

[Emurlahn]

To summarize notable movements by my theories:

Elinarch (passive +1) > Shuar (passive +1)
Antillus (passive +2) > Elinarch (passive +2) + NA (active +2)
Alera Imperia (passive +1) > Ceres (passive +1)
Calderon (passive +1 mulitiplicative) > Ceres (passive +1 w/ no multiplier)
Calderon (passive +1 multiplicative on 4 people) > no movement
Calderon (passive +1) > no movement

[Monok Ochem]

Korbas, on 25 June 2013 - 02:57 PM, said:

Signing in. />

Now to go look in my fine wine storage for something special, glass of red anyone?

Odd that Fener and Tiam were talking about wine to code their colors, and Korbas uses it in his very first post?

[Emurlahn]

Notable quotes about Calderon... if Gait is correct here, then "Count Bernarnd" would probably be the +1 assuming he's in the FA (Tavi's) faction.

Gait, on 26 June 2013 - 04:19 PM, said:

Korbas, on 26 June 2013 - 04:13 PM, said:

If Vord start far left of the map do we think the two competing factions start around the middle and the First Aleran's far right? Just thinking this may be important at some point.

I think people start at the points they were in the books.( end of book 4, since a little of Canim lands remain uninfested)
For example Tavi's uncle ( Count Bernarnd ? ) in Calderon or Gaius Sextus in Alera imperia.

Also very possible. Maybe the First Aleran have all of the multiplicative powers if they are designed to fight Vord. But if that's the case, Calderon is helpless when they leave, so they couldn't easily leave the faction.

Liosan, on 26 June 2013 - 04:34 PM, said:

Korbas, on 26 June 2013 - 04:13 PM, said:

If Vord start far left of the map do we think the two competing factions start around the middle and the First Aleran's far right? Just thinking this may be important at some point.

First Aleran prolly starts in Calderon. Loyalists start in the capital. Rebels prolly start in whichever's the third tile with a resist modifier active.

Gait's book knowledge is helpful here. Don't know what it means... maybe the +20 actually doesn't correlate to anybody? Maybe it's a base fortification that degrades over time? Doesn't seem useful so far from the Vord at the start of the game, though. It will decay before the Vord get there.

Gait, on 26 June 2013 - 05:28 PM, said:

Liosan, on 26 June 2013 - 04:34 PM, said:

Korbas, on 26 June 2013 - 04:13 PM, said:

If Vord start far left of the map do we think the two competing factions start around the middle and the First Aleran's far right? Just thinking this may be important at some point.

First Aleran prolly starts in Calderon. Loyalists start in the capital. Rebels prolly start in whichever's the third tile with a resist modifier active.

First Aleran legion was NEVER in Calderon. The fortifications in Calderon are probably the work of count Bernard a loyalist. who fortified the valley for 3 books by himself.

Nothing clear about where the Rebels may start just looking for Calderon... didn't someone speculate as to their start?

[Trake]

Okaros, on 27 June 2013 - 05:41 PM, said:

Trake, on 27 June 2013 - 05:37 PM, said:

Okaros, on 27 June 2013 - 05:33 PM, said:

Trake, on 27 June 2013 - 05:29 PM, said:

I'm going to go on record and say I think Tiam is legit.
I'm also going to Vote Barghast
just because he's too quiet and I don't like that alt.

Derailing much?

Just like Gait yesterday, you dont give a reason for why you are defending someone, but unlike Gait, you go further and drop a vote on an alt that is completely unmentioned so far, with no explanation. In case Tiam is Alera, id rather lynch trake first to test if hes defending her because shes alera, or because shes vord.

Vote Trake

Barghast has two posts. The same as someone who was modkilled for inactivity. He's being too quiet. He's been mentioned earlier as being far too quiet, as well.
Also, didn't you call me out on voting for Gait when I should have stuck with Fener because he was the one being defended?

I did. But I was much more convinced Fener was vord(at the time) than i am that Tiam is. Id rather not kill a potential fury buffer until im sure theyre not one. I wasnt on when fener revealed, so i didnt feel any real hesitation at the time i voted, which was before Fener revealed he had a fire fury.

Fener wasn't really that likely to be a Vord at any stage. I voted for him when it came down to the wire because, like I said, he wasn't my leader and people were potentially protecting him. It didn't surprise me hugely when Fener revealed he had an anti-Vord Fire Fury, either. Nor should that have been taken too seriously at the time; fake reveals and all that. Especially given he said it'd take him two days to prove it. He was basically the most likely target that night and I wasn't going to waste a chance to get a CF. I just didn't like Gait for symping, hence my quick vote shift.
Today is a different situation entirely. Alera can actually prove her ability exists tonight. Her buffers could be extremely useful, especially for fortifying squares against the Vord infection, or for healing or guarding. Additionally, instead of repeating Day One and going for a witch-hunt on the most visible player (Tiam), we can put some pressure on the people who are sitting back and not commenting, just observing and being quiet. Maybe, maybe, we can lynch an alt.

[Okaros]

Trake, on 27 June 2013 - 05:55 PM, said:

Okaros, on 27 June 2013 - 05:41 PM, said:

Trake, on 27 June 2013 - 05:37 PM, said:

Okaros, on 27 June 2013 - 05:33 PM, said:

Trake, on 27 June 2013 - 05:29 PM, said:

I'm going to go on record and say I think Tiam is legit.
I'm also going to Vote Barghast
just because he's too quiet and I don't like that alt.

Derailing much?

Just like Gait yesterday, you dont give a reason for why you are defending someone, but unlike Gait, you go further and drop a vote on an alt that is completely unmentioned so far, with no explanation. In case Tiam is Alera, id rather lynch trake first to test if hes defending her because shes alera, or because shes vord.

Vote Trake

Barghast has two posts. The same as someone who was modkilled for inactivity. He's being too quiet. He's been mentioned earlier as being far too quiet, as well.
Also, didn't you call me out on voting for Gait when I should have stuck with Fener because he was the one being defended?

I did. But I was much more convinced Fener was vord(at the time) than i am that Tiam is. Id rather not kill a potential fury buffer until im sure theyre not one. I wasnt on when fener revealed, so i didnt feel any real hesitation at the time i voted, which was before Fener revealed he had a fire fury.

Fener wasn't really that likely to be a Vord at any stage. I voted for him when it came down to the wire because, like I said, he wasn't my leader and people were potentially protecting him. It didn't surprise me hugely when Fener revealed he had an anti-Vord Fire Fury, either. Nor should that have been taken too seriously at the time; fake reveals and all that. Especially given he said it'd take him two days to prove it. He was basically the most likely target that night and I wasn't going to waste a chance to get a CF. I just didn't like Gait for symping, hence my quick vote shift.
Today is a different situation entirely. Alera can actually prove her ability exists tonight. Her buffers could be extremely useful, especially for fortifying squares against the Vord infection, or for healing or guarding. Additionally, instead of repeating Day One and going for a witch-hunt on the most visible player (Tiam), we can put some pressure on the people who are sitting back and not commenting, just observing and being quiet. Maybe, maybe, we can lynch an alt.

Fair enough. I wouldnt think an alt would be that quiet though. In zombies, the alts were medium low posters and made an effort to contribute and were not the lowest posters. Too low would have gotten suspicion, and too high would have made some alts be super low posters. So though I wouldnt toss out the barghast idea, I think people with a few more post are more suspicious.

Remove vote

[Emurlahn]

Interesting thing about Day 1 is how much movement there seem to have been toward the infested parts of the map. Maybe that's to be expected from people who can give passive fortifications. However, I doubt there are 9 First Aleran in the game, so several of them must be Loyalists and/or Rebels.

[Nimander Golit]

Emurlahn, on 27 June 2013 - 05:52 PM, said:

Notable quotes about Calderon... if Gait is correct here, then "Count Bernarnd" would probably be the +1 assuming he's in the FA (Tavi's) faction.

Gait, on 26 June 2013 - 04:19 PM, said:

Korbas, on 26 June 2013 - 04:13 PM, said:

If Vord start far left of the map do we think the two competing factions start around the middle and the First Aleran's far right? Just thinking this may be important at some point.

I think people start at the points they were in the books.( end of book 4, since a little of Canim lands remain uninfested)
For example Tavi's uncle ( Count Bernarnd ? ) in Calderon or Gaius Sextus in Alera imperia.

Also very possible. Maybe the First Aleran have all of the multiplicative powers if they are designed to fight Vord. But if that's the case, Calderon is helpless when they leave, so they couldn't easily leave the faction.

Liosan, on 26 June 2013 - 04:34 PM, said:

Korbas, on 26 June 2013 - 04:13 PM, said:

If Vord start far left of the map do we think the two competing factions start around the middle and the First Aleran's far right? Just thinking this may be important at some point.

First Aleran prolly starts in Calderon. Loyalists start in the capital. Rebels prolly start in whichever's the third tile with a resist modifier active.

Gait's book knowledge is helpful here. Don't know what it means... maybe the +20 actually doesn't correlate to anybody? Maybe it's a base fortification that degrades over time? Doesn't seem useful so far from the Vord at the start of the game, though. It will decay before the Vord get there.

Gait, on 26 June 2013 - 05:28 PM, said:

Liosan, on 26 June 2013 - 04:34 PM, said:

Korbas, on 26 June 2013 - 04:13 PM, said:

If Vord start far left of the map do we think the two competing factions start around the middle and the First Aleran's far right? Just thinking this may be important at some point.

First Aleran prolly starts in Calderon. Loyalists start in the capital. Rebels prolly start in whichever's the third tile with a resist modifier active.

First Aleran legion was NEVER in Calderon. The fortifications in Calderon are probably the work of count Bernard a loyalist. who fortified the valley for 3 books by himself.

Nothing clear about where the Rebels may start just looking for Calderon... didn't someone speculate as to their start?

Kalarus would be for sure one of the major rebels, and he would almost certainly start in Kalare. His son, Kalarus minoris would start either in Alera Imperia or Kalare.

Loyalists and the other rebels can be pretty much anywhere. In the books, Count Calderon stays in Calderon fortifying it, and his wife flies around all over but meets him there.

The First Aleran pretty much entirely would be on the left side of the map - they range through Elinarch and Antillus, especially, as well as make one big trip to Shuar.

The Vord horde is mostly in Narash and Shuar, but during the books the Prime Queen shows up and starts a new hive in Kalare under everyone's noses, and that launches a huge invasion of everywhere else, so I would not get too complacent with the Vord being across the sea for now.

[Nimander Golit]

re the fortifications, I interpreted the OP as that anyone with an earth fury can increase fortifications. I think the basic earth fury ability let's you increase it by 1, but some super-earthcrafters can do +2 increases, so when we see 23 (+1 +2) that is indicating that it went from 20 to 23 overnight due to one person increasing it by +1 and another person increasing it by +2.

[Nimander Golit]

What I cannot fathom is that we've had at least 3 players now say "Oh I think Tiam is trustworthy" with no explanation. I even asked Korbas why and he just ignored it. So Trake, Korbas, others... WHY do you trust Tiam? Why do you find her "legit"?

[Emurlahn]

I don't find Tiamatha trustworthy. But I don't see a great case for lynching her. If she's Alera, then it can't be good for anybody non-Vord. If she's a Vord "spawn," we're going to spend the rest of the game lynching Vord spawn (with no real discussion; nobody is going to want to discuss anything when the lynch is obvious) and and relying on NAs to find the spawner.

[Pran Chole]

Wow, lots of posting to catch up on. I'll be a little while digesting this.

[Nimander Golit]

Emurlahn, on 27 June 2013 - 06:37 PM, said:

I don't find Tiamatha trustworthy. But I don't see a great case for lynching her. If she's Alera, then it can't be good for anybody non-Vord. If she's a Vord "spawn," we're going to spend the rest of the game lynching Vord spawn (with no real discussion; nobody is going to want to discuss anything when the lynch is obvious) and and relying on NAs to find the spawner.

If she's a generic Vord spawn, then we KNOW that all the new alts appearing are vord instead of having wishywashy WIFOM all game. Furthermore, we have this fancy thing called the ATTACK ability which is probably, oh I dont know, intended for being used to attack all the weak generic Vord armies while we try and lynch the more formidable queen(s)!


And if, IF somehow Tiam really is Alera, then her bonuses benefit us and the Vord anyways, in addition to her being her own independent faction that we cannot trust to work with us (ask the scum and town players from mafia 100 how well that worked out for them)

[Trake]

Nimander Golit, on 27 June 2013 - 06:44 PM, said:

Emurlahn, on 27 June 2013 - 06:37 PM, said:

I don't find Tiamatha trustworthy. But I don't see a great case for lynching her. If she's Alera, then it can't be good for anybody non-Vord. If she's a Vord "spawn," we're going to spend the rest of the game lynching Vord spawn (with no real discussion; nobody is going to want to discuss anything when the lynch is obvious) and and relying on NAs to find the spawner.

If she's a generic Vord spawn, then we KNOW that all the new alts appearing are vord instead of having wishywashy WIFOM all game. Furthermore, we have this fancy thing called the ATTACK ability which is probably, oh I dont know, intended for being used to attack all the weak generic Vord armies while we try and lynch the more formidable queen(s)!


And if, IF somehow Tiam really is Alera, then her bonuses benefit us and the Vord anyways, in addition to her being her own independent faction that we cannot trust to work with us (ask the scum and town players from mafia 100 how well that worked out for them)

I don't think the Vord have furies. Additionally, by voting carefully (like for fortifications), the Vord are the only ones who suffer.

[Nimander Golit]

Trake, on 27 June 2013 - 06:55 PM, said:

Nimander Golit, on 27 June 2013 - 06:44 PM, said:

Emurlahn, on 27 June 2013 - 06:37 PM, said:

I don't find Tiamatha trustworthy. But I don't see a great case for lynching her. If she's Alera, then it can't be good for anybody non-Vord. If she's a Vord "spawn," we're going to spend the rest of the game lynching Vord spawn (with no real discussion; nobody is going to want to discuss anything when the lynch is obvious) and and relying on NAs to find the spawner.

If she's a generic Vord spawn, then we KNOW that all the new alts appearing are vord instead of having wishywashy WIFOM all game. Furthermore, we have this fancy thing called the ATTACK ability which is probably, oh I dont know, intended for being used to attack all the weak generic Vord armies while we try and lynch the more formidable queen(s)!


And if, IF somehow Tiam really is Alera, then her bonuses benefit us and the Vord anyways, in addition to her being her own independent faction that we cannot trust to work with us (ask the scum and town players from mafia 100 how well that worked out for them)

I don't think the Vord have furies. Additionally, by voting carefully (like for fortifications), the Vord are the only ones who suffer.

The Takers can take over people who do have furies. And the OP says they can recruit. Seems pretty damn unlikely to me they won't be able to use furies.