[Shadow]

Tiamatha, on 06 June 2013 - 03:02 PM, said:

Does anyone with more mafia experience (whether through veteran status or actually modding) wish to comment about game balance in relation to 2 kills per night versus an alternating kill? Having never really modded, I am unsure upon the reasoning behind such game creation.

2 kills per night favours the scum, but alternating kills would favour town more. If one of the killers died early, it would take the other a very long time to win that way.

Games like this are quite volatile balance wise, because there are a lot of factors that can completely throw the game either way early on.

[Tiamatha]

Ok, I'm walking a fine line here, but I think I can do it without breaking the game.

My current theory is Hanas is one of the killers. Here is why:

I am the guard. I have guarded Galayan Lord 2 nights in a row. I am assuming that one of those two nights I have blocked him from killing (if we are assuming a killer balance of alternating NKs). Thus, I am pretty sure that GL is one of the 2 killers.

So logically, if there was no kill last night and the killer was moderately competent, either they made a mistake (like putting a hit on Skintick before the lynch train ever gained steam) or were blocked by the guard, namely myself.

Everyone on thread has access to when people have posted. In the period of time it took to build a train on Skintick, I saw no post from Hanas (his last recorded post was after the first vote was placed on Skintick by Atrahal, hardly an indication of a burgeoning lynch train, especially given the distraction of Shadow and my spat). This does not mean he wasn't lurking, but it strengthens the theory that he failed to foresee Skintick's lynch and thus failed to put in a provisional, resulting in a failed kill.

Hanas has also been suspicious in being a low content poster with singular focus on trying to push the thread toward a Gamelon/Atrahal killer/symp link. Moreover, Hanas just voted night, which is incredibly damning from my point of view.

I will guard whichever of the two are not lynched today, and given that, I think the best chance of proving my role lies in lynching GL. I can watch over Hanas in the upcoming night.

I implore my fellow townies to listen to me and take down GL. I am not revealing because I am almost lynched. I am not revealing at a point where a lot of focus has fallen on one specific player. I have revealed at a time where it makes common sense (at least to me).

Remove Vote

Vote GL

[Shadow]

Atrahal, on 06 June 2013 - 02:53 PM, said:

Well um, this is easiest way for a killer to let another killer know who they are. They will presumably have the same PM so by discussing possibilities they can throw the right one on thread to signal the other. Reading fail by me much? I'd be happy to vote him for mentioning it first or you for just going along with it.

Maybe if I'd been insistent on one particular set of circumstances, but mentioning it in with every other possibility would hardly work as a signal...

[Shadow]

Wow, guard reveal. And since we now know that roled players CF with their role, we know the guard must be in the game.

It makes much more sense to lynch GL since you guarded him, than Hanas for being connected. At this stage, testing the reveal is the most important thing, which means voting GL really.

I agree that Hanas voting night is scummy.

[Tiamatha]

Shadow, on 06 June 2013 - 03:33 PM, said:

Wow, guard reveal. And since we now know that roled players CF with their role, we know the guard must be in the game.

It makes much more sense to lynch GL since you guarded him, than Hanas for being connected. At this stage, testing the reveal is the most important thing, which means voting GL really.

I agree that Hanas voting night is scummy.

I figured I couldn't count on being lucky a 3rd night in a row, and needed to get the information on thread. I hope I am right about Hanas, but I'm much more confident that GL is one of the killers.

[Shadow]

Out of interest, why did you choose GL in the first place?

[Tiamatha]

He was a low poster and I remember getting badly burned in 101, especially when I was pushing for the lynch of the best townie players. This time, I got lucky.

[Shadow]

Tiamatha, on 06 June 2013 - 03:35 PM, said:

Shadow, on 06 June 2013 - 03:33 PM, said:

Wow, guard reveal. And since we now know that roled players CF with their role, we know the guard must be in the game.

It makes much more sense to lynch GL since you guarded him, than Hanas for being connected. At this stage, testing the reveal is the most important thing, which means voting GL really.

I agree that Hanas voting night is scummy.

I figured I couldn't count on being lucky a 3rd night in a row, and needed to get the information on thread. I hope I am right about Hanas, but I'm much more confident that GL is one of the killers.

Really unfortunate we lost the healer tbh, it would've been really useful in this situation. A good chance of hitting scum is great though, particularly when it's someone like GL who wasn't getting much heat.

[Atrahal]

Remove Vote



Vote Gay Lord



Test the reveal. Only, say the killers did abstain from killing for just this reason. I thought of it way back when, start of day one. If I was a killer i'd not kill until I had identified my partner. I also thought that if the guard revealed then the healer could just keep on healing him. Also if he revealed and someone counter revealed then we would have the symp or killer lynched as well as the guard. 1 scum for one roled town. I don't know, I believe you but you could be the symp sowing confusion, IF THIS IS THE CASE I SAY DO NOT COUNTER REVEAL GUARD.


What a mess.



It's too early to tell so I just pray Galayn Lord comes up scum.

[Atrahal]

You have to believe in the alternate kill theory as well. That was brought up by Shadow, now if Shadow is a killer and was trying to signal his killer mate then he could be partnered with GL. Possibilities are huge. I'm going away from the thread.

[Tiamatha]

Atrahal, on 06 June 2013 - 03:43 PM, said:

Remove Vote



Vote Gay Lord



Test the reveal. Only, say the killers did abstain from killing for just this reason. I thought of it way back when, start of day one. If I was a killer i'd not kill until I had identified my partner. I also thought that if the guard revealed then the healer could just keep on healing him. Also if he revealed and someone counter revealed then we would have the symp or killer lynched as well as the guard. 1 scum for one roled town. I don't know, I believe you but you could be the symp sowing confusion, IF THIS IS THE CASE I SAY DO NOT COUNTER REVEAL GUARD.


What a mess.



It's too early to tell so I just pray Galayn Lord comes up scum.

That is a good point, however, I would point out that the killers do not know who the other one is, and if the symp has been unsuccessful in communicating with them, the killers would be taking a massive unreasonable risk in withholding their kills in hopes to get a reveal. Plus, to have both killers think exactly how you described without one of them killing people is highly unlikely in my opinion.

[Atrahal]

5 anon. At least one killer reading imo.

[Atrahal]

Tiamatha, on 06 June 2013 - 03:48 PM, said:

Atrahal, on 06 June 2013 - 03:43 PM, said:

Remove Vote



Vote Gay Lord



Test the reveal. Only, say the killers did abstain from killing for just this reason. I thought of it way back when, start of day one. If I was a killer i'd not kill until I had identified my partner. I also thought that if the guard revealed then the healer could just keep on healing him. Also if he revealed and someone counter revealed then we would have the symp or killer lynched as well as the guard. 1 scum for one roled town. I don't know, I believe you but you could be the symp sowing confusion, IF THIS IS THE CASE I SAY DO NOT COUNTER REVEAL GUARD.


What a mess.



It's too early to tell so I just pray Galayn Lord comes up scum.

That is a good point, however, I would point out that the killers do not know who the other one is, and if the symp has been unsuccessful in communicating with them, the killers would be taking a massive unreasonable risk in withholding their kills in hopes to get a reveal. Plus, to have both killers think exactly how you described without one of them killing people is highly unlikely in my opinion.

That is why I am voting with you. I am hoping you have not done anything prematurely.

[Tiamatha]

Fingers crossed.

[Atrahal]

Atrahal, on 06 June 2013 - 03:52 PM, said:

Tiamatha, on 06 June 2013 - 03:48 PM, said:

Atrahal, on 06 June 2013 - 03:43 PM, said:

Remove Vote



Vote Gay Lord



Test the reveal. Only, say the killers did abstain from killing for just this reason. I thought of it way back when, start of day one. If I was a killer i'd not kill until I had identified my partner. I also thought that if the guard revealed then the healer could just keep on healing him. Also if he revealed and someone counter revealed then we would have the symp or killer lynched as well as the guard. 1 scum for one roled town. I don't know, I believe you but you could be the symp sowing confusion, IF THIS IS THE CASE I SAY DO NOT COUNTER REVEAL GUARD.


What a mess.



It's too early to tell so I just pray Galayn Lord comes up scum.

That is a good point, however, I would point out that the killers do not know who the other one is, and if the symp has been unsuccessful in communicating with them, the killers would be taking a massive unreasonable risk in withholding their kills in hopes to get a reveal. Plus, to have both killers think exactly how you described without one of them killing people is highly unlikely in my opinion.

That is why I am voting with you. I am hoping you have not done anything prematurely.

The odds of you targetting the right person with kill on day one. What about this as an example.



Shadow had the kill day one and put it on Desra for the spat. Skintick heals Desra.



Then say as you say, Hanas puts his kill on Skintick and doesn't swap. Or something like that.



Then you have outed yourself to the killers. We lynch a town, then what? Do we ignore you? Do we lynch you?



Jesus.

[Desra]

Tiamatha, on 06 June 2013 - 03:02 PM, said:

Does anyone with more mafia experience (whether through veteran status or actually modding) wish to comment about game balance in relation to 2 kills per night versus an alternating kill? Having never really modded, I am unsure upon the reasoning behind such game creation.

Alternating kills has been done before. The other times that this particular game was run the killers each had a kill every night. Game balance wise it doesn't matter that much. A mod would just tell one killer that they can kill on odd nights and the other one that they can kill on even nights.

There could be a lot of reasons for no kills the last several nights. It is pure WIFOM. I was expecting 2 kills a night and a nice quick bloody game based on the previous versions that have been run.

Losing the healer is a tough blow.


A guard reveal. Well that is not totally unexpected with no night kills. Test the reveal as we say.

Vote GL

[Karatallid]

Oooh, reveals are always fun! It would certainly be cool if GL ended up being a killer, and lucky for Tiam for having chosen him to guard!

vote Galayn Lord

[Shadow]

Atrahal, on 06 June 2013 - 03:43 PM, said:

Remove Vote



Vote Gay Lord



Test the reveal. Only, say the killers did abstain from killing for just this reason. I thought of it way back when, start of day one. If I was a killer i'd not kill until I had identified my partner. I also thought that if the guard revealed then the healer could just keep on healing him. Also if he revealed and someone counter revealed then we would have the symp or killer lynched as well as the guard. 1 scum for one roled town. I don't know, I believe you but you could be the symp sowing confusion, IF THIS IS THE CASE I SAY DO NOT COUNTER REVEAL GUARD.


What a mess.



It's too early to tell so I just pray Galayn Lord comes up scum.

Not sure I agree about the guard not revealing. It would give us a guaranteed scum at the least, though as you say, most likely at the cost of a guard. I can see where you're coming from, but if Tiam is the symp and the guard doesn't counter, then it puts the symp in a position to do a lot of damage to the town.

Personally, I'm inclined to believe Tiam. If he's the symp, it's not like he's got much to de-rail from at the moment. It could just be to misdirect town, but if he's not the guard, then while his reveal might draw the guard out, it also does give us scum, which is more than we had before.

Ultimately, if Tiam isn't the guard, countering or not is just going to come down to the guards choice, there are pros and cons to it.

Putting things like "IF THIS IS THE CASE I SAY DO NOT COUNTER REVEAL GUARD" on thread, jumps out to me as looking more like a message for scum than for the guard.

[Tiamatha]

I mean, if I am wrong, lynch me.

I will have done nothing to benefit town at that point (my conclusions about GL being wrong if he is does not CF as scum), and I could easily drag things out by saying "OH! but I guarded Hanas last night and there were no kills!!! Kill Hanas first!!!" and so on and so forth.

However, this contingency is only needed if GL comes up inno. I encourage the lynch on GL because I have guarded him and my theory on Hanas is far less sure. But, if I'm right, we get GL tonight, I prevent the remaining killer from killing, and we lynch Hanas FTW.

[Shadow]

On the point of counters as well, it would be nice if we could maybe not speed lynch so that we can actually get a chance to see if there is one