[Tholen]

Shadow, on 11 June 2013 - 07:26 PM, said:

Anyhow, out for a bit.

Don't lynch me, morons.

You haven't even thrown a vote today. I can't believe you are sitting around waiting to hammer yourself.

[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 5. 9 hours and 40 minutes remaining

7 Players still alive: Atrahal, Cast, Hanas, Karatallid, Korlat, Shadow, Tholen

4 votes to lynch, 4 votes to go to night.

2 Votes for Shadow ( Cast, Karatallid )
2 Votes for Hanas ( Tholen, Hanas )

Players not voted: Atrahal, Korlat, Shadow

[Tholen]

Well, I have to go to some meetings and then have some other RL shit to do. I will be back before time out but only by like an hour. I might be able to occasionally check my phone. I'll do what I can. At the least I will be back 30 minutes before lynch as it's right around bed time for me, so there should be no worries there. I like my Hanas vote. But will evaluate a switch when I come back if it's needed.

[Atrahal]

In an hour I will vote, I have read responses and I am wondering were cast is, if town she's being useless, if scum keeping her head down.

I want to see what korlat comes up with.

[Korlat]

Atrahal, on 11 June 2013 - 08:08 PM, said:

In an hour I will vote, I have read responses and I am wondering were cast is, if town she's being useless, if scum keeping her head down.

I want to see what korlat comes up with.

Just putting the posts together now.

[Korlat]

Ok, so below are some posts of Kara's which I thought worthy of mention. Some of them have already been dug up by others. People are going to be in shock over this (especially Kara himself, who mentioned it) but this time I cannot see this player being a symp. So either killer or town for me is Kara.

This first post has already attracted some attention for Karatallid, especially from Shadow. I mentioned at the time that I personally didn't feel it was pointless, but nonetheless the post has been the subject of debate. I see this as a typical day 1 post of the sort that most people make as their 'serious post' before there is actually anything to comment on.

Karatallid, on 03 June 2013 - 01:25 PM, said:

Path-Shaper, on 03 June 2013 - 10:03 AM, said:

*scene*

The set-up consist of 2 independent killers and a symp. The killers don't know each other.
Town has a guard and a healer.
Day is 36 hours. Night is instant, so make sure to provide provisionals.

Hmmm, so with 2 independent killers, can we expect 2 deaths per night? If so...

15 players

WCS is 1 town lynch per day, 2 town deaths per night

Day 2 = 3 scum, 9 town
Day 3 = 3 scum, 6 town
Day 4 = 3 scum, 3 town

WCS, Day 3 is D-Day. Now, given that the killers don't know each other, maybe Day 4 is more D-Day than Day 3, but either way, let's not fuck it up, eh?

Haha, sorry, this post below just made me laugh, now that I too have been punished by the Shadow content-blocker

Karatallid, on 04 June 2013 - 06:54 PM, said:

Hood, on 04 June 2013 - 06:50 PM, said:

Tholen, on 04 June 2013 - 06:38 PM, said:

Also of note, This game is going to be a bit challenging in that the 2 killers will have no ties to each other. Usually, if we get one, there is a good chance we can get the other based on interactions. We don't have that luxury here. (Sorry shadow if this post was obvious to you. It doesn't really help us find scum, but maybe it will help people think of way/things to post that will helps us eventually. If this doesn't meet your standards for a content filled post that isn't just filler...I apologize.)

so how will we ever catch scum?

By looking for the symp, duh!

(sorry Shadow if this post was obvious to you. It doesn't really help us find scum, but makybe it will help people think of way/things to post that will helps us eventually. If this doesn't meet your standards for a content filled post that isn't just filler...I apologize.)

That's going to be my standard disclaimer for the rest of the game, I think. Thanks Tholen!

This post below almost has the feel of scum taunting the about-to-be lynched inno.

Karatallid, on 04 June 2013 - 08:17 PM, said:

Silchas Ruin, on 04 June 2013 - 08:10 PM, said:

Alright, whatever, you guys are settled into your stupidity and I can't change that now. You'll all regret this when Kara turns up scum. He'll twirl his fucking pencil mustache and chortle at you in that singularly annoying French fashion. Kara, I'm pretty sure I know who you are, and you're on my list.

remove vote
vote Silchas Ruin

Well, I hope you'll remove me when you get to SH and realize that I'm not scum.

Anyway, Day's not over yet, you could still survive! Doesn't seem to be many people on thread at the moment.

Now, Kara also came under some heat for his vote on Silchas Ruin above. Specifically, why he was switching to Silchas when he suspected Shadow. Kara does point out that he had made a connection between the two before voting, so it wasn't out of the blue (the link came about two hours earlier, unless I missed an earlier one). I think he defends himself with a pretty good argument, although the extent to which he continues to defend seems somewhat over the top. Every time anyone mentions it, he's there to reiterate his argument about why it's not scummy. I think the rebuttal which can be made to this is that not responding at all might be construed as scummy too, but then on top of this you see that Kara also later makes cases on Atrahal and Shadow, two of his biggest detractors and bug bears - which in itself is another sign of defensiveness.

I'd also point out point number 4 below - the two he names as wanting to lynch out of low posters were our healer and our guard. Not something scum would have known, but...funny.

Also, point number 5 there has also caused controversy. It is, perhaps, another sign of defensiveness, pre-emptive in this case.

Karatallid, on 05 June 2013 - 03:10 PM, said:

Egads, you people are dense.

1 - @Cast - I made it very clear during Day 1 that I thought if Silchas was scum, he'd be a symp, so would come back town. Today's comments were basically an I told you so, but let's not just assume he was a symp.

2 - A no-lynch yesterday would just have created a metric shit ton of WIFOM today, that's true, but in a game like this, where D-Day has potential to be really soon, it's probably for the best that town don't rush into lynches, specially with impending mod-kills. If I had been around when Desra suggested we not lynch because of the mod-kill, I would have agreed and removed my vote.

3 - The people who are jumping on the smallest things are doing town no favours. If you make the thread an unfavourable environment for posting, people aren't going to post. If you jump down someone's throat the moment they make a small inconsequential comment about nothing that just rubs you the wrong way, they're not going to go out of their way to make any sort of case. Instead of focusing in on one person, how about we take some time to look at the thread as a whole.

4 - I am on board with voting out a low-poster today. Skintick or Tiamatha would be my choices. Neither was done anything useful in their measly number of posts that I can see.

5 - Scum love lists, so I must be scum. Let's watch how many people use this as a be all end all reason to vote me out. I put it at 50/50 odds this post gets me voted out.

This post below came acorss as strange because I can't tell if Kara's trying to be ironic or not. Is he aping something Shadow threw at him, or does he really mean his response to Tiamatha? And, if he really does mean it, then what about...

Karatallid, on 05 June 2013 - 06:15 PM, said:

Tiamatha, on 05 June 2013 - 05:51 PM, said:

Another point, before I begin my reread:

In this game, I think the crucial topics for town are as follows:

1 ) Why were there no NK's last night? Are we witnessing failed or absent kill attempts?

2 ) Who is the symp? If we can identify someone signalling 2 people (or signalling one and protecting another from a lynch), we may have a route to linking up our scum team. I know this is what we've been attempting, but it bears repeating given some of the bunny trails we are wont to wander off on.

3 ) What playstyles are the killers using? Are we dealing with lowposters, good townies, or some combination of the two. While this is mere speculation, I think that the best and worst of us need heavy scrutiny. I was burned by the lowposting scum in 101, and thus, my focus this game is on taking down those useless players first. Moreover, I haven't seen any extremely helpful, smooth and pure townies this game to make me suspicious of scum lurking in the higher post counts.

Any discussion around point 1 is WIFOM and completely useless. No one knows, throwing random theories out is not helpful in the least to town.

...this post below? Where Kara essentially asks the same question which he berated Tiam for asking? Also, I may be wrong on this one, but Kara seems to ask these sorts of questions about the no NKs longer than others. Really curious about what others think about it? For what reason? Yeah, you know what I'm implying

Karatallid, on 06 June 2013 - 01:40 PM, said:

Wish I hadn't been in bed when Day timed out, or that KL had revealed earlier than she did. I'm mighty confused about what's happening with the NKs. I mean, do we have a guard that's just that good, or do the killers really suck that bad?

[Korlat]

Karatallid's vote on Galayn. Nothing much to say here, except perhaps when put together with a much later post...

Karatallid, on 06 June 2013 - 03:59 PM, said:

Oooh, reveals are always fun! It would certainly be cool if GL ended up being a killer, and lucky for Tiam for having chosen him to guard!

vote Galayn Lord

...which is this one below. The bolded part is exactly what Karatallid did do.

Karatallid, on 11 June 2013 - 04:26 PM, said:

Atrahal, on 11 June 2013 - 04:25 PM, said:

KARA if you read anything read this post.

Shadow, on 06 June 2013 - 03:33 PM, said:

Wow, guard reveal. And since we now know that roled players CF with their role, we know the guard must be in the game.

It makes much more sense to lynch GL since you guarded him, than Hanas for being connected. At this stage, testing the reveal is the most important thing, which means voting GL really.

I agree that Hanas voting night is scummy.

Now he could advocate going after Hanas here, if Shadow does that and convinces us Hanas is the better choice out of the two then Galayn walks free another day. If Shadow is symp he would know GL is the killer.

Yet that doesn't matter if Shadow is the killer, he wouldn't know who GL is. Shit, Hanas was symping Shadow earlier on, if Shadow caught onto this he'd think Hanas is his symp and that is why he thinks GL is the better option.

If I were a killer in a game of this setup, I'd agree to test the reveal right away too. Deflecting from the reveal would only bring the attention down on his head. So this only reinforces my belief.

Ok, I'm going to do a Shadow here and I hate myself for it. Pointless post is pointless. Seriously, why even write this?

Karatallid, on 07 June 2013 - 01:22 PM, said:

Hmmm, been a fairly quiet day so far. So who we looking at today?

Sensible advice from Kara below. But he doesn't do it himself. Instead, he pursues his own case which only vaguely ties into Galayn.

Karatallid, on 07 June 2013 - 01:36 PM, said:

Atrahal, on 07 June 2013 - 01:26 PM, said:

Karatallid, on 07 June 2013 - 01:22 PM, said:

Hmmm, been a fairly quiet day so far. So who we looking at today?

A few seem to think Cast is supicious and possibly GL's symp. I am thinking Shadow's play is very defensive and could lead to scum. Have a read, we got a scum CF, form your own opinion.

Although the scum CF is great, that doesn't help us pick out the second scum. We're basically shooting blindly again. Gonna have to look for anyone symping GL to try to tie that person to a 2nd potential scum, methinks.

Ok, so I am not going to quote Karatallid's case on Atrahal as symp and Shadow as killer. It is posts 783-785, 787-788 for those who want to have another look. I actually thought that his dissection of Atrahal's play and arguments for why that was symp-like were pretty sound at the time, although the posts cited, as I think Shadow pointed out, do tend to come from kerfuffles Kara himself had with Atrahal. But I think the link with Shadow is tenuous at best. I've stated elsewhere that I'm also far from convinced that Shadow is scum.


Below is the quick start of day vote on Shadow. At the time I thought Cast's was more dodgy, but even so, what's the rush? Why not analyse the lynch train, for instance, and see if there's anything there that could potentially change your mind. Even so, I would have to admit it's pretty risky for a sole killer to start a train so soon, unless they were certain they could get the quick lynch.

Karatallid, on 10 June 2013 - 05:44 PM, said:

Welp, my opinion has not changed based on those CFs, so...

vote Shadow


Also, had no idea that HP was HO. Well done on not doing the fly-by posting shit you usually do HO!

The two posts below both argue against a Hanas lynch. I have to disagree with the thinking of the second post, I could not leave Hanas for a D-day lynch, knowing that of ALL the players here, he is the LEAST likely to be the killer. Kara is treating it like Hanas being a symp is a certainty, when it is not, especially considering all the people being currently accused of being sympish. Hanas might be at the front, but he is hardly alone. And moreover, what happened to Atrahal being the symp? The certainty around that appears to have evaporated for Karatallid.

Karatallid, on 10 June 2013 - 06:33 PM, said:

I think it makes more sense to go after someone we suspect as being a killer today, and, if they turn up inno, then go after Hanas tomorrow in hopes that it'll give us a bit more time.

Karatallid, on 10 June 2013 - 07:20 PM, said:

Hanas, on 10 June 2013 - 06:56 PM, said:

Tholen, on 10 June 2013 - 06:43 PM, said:

Karatallid, on 10 June 2013 - 06:33 PM, said:

I think it makes more sense to go after someone we suspect as being a killer today, and, if they turn up inno, then go after Hanas tomorrow in hopes that it'll give us a bit more time.

It's so hard for me to see myself voting someone who is going to come up RI on a WCS D-day. What if we are wrong and Hanas isn't the symp (unlikely, but possible)... then it's game over.

It is much better to lynch me today if you think I'm the symp.
Kara's quick vote on Shadow and now telling the town to wait until d-day to lynch the symp? That raises some flags, or ought to.

This doesn't make any sense to me. I'd rather try for the killer until we absolutely have to lynch the symp. There is no need to lynch the symp to win, so if we are 95% certain who the symp is, then there's no point in voting them out until we absolutely have to for a WCS situation. Better to try for the killer and whittle down the pool of possible candidates for killer.

I was gonna ask you why you are trying so hard to deflect from Shadow, but I guess since you're the symp, it makes sense for you to do so!

Yep, Atrahal's been displaced by Hanas. Would this not also damage the case on Shadow, seeing as much of the case was based upon Atrahal's post. Yet, still covinced of Shadow being a killer.

Karatallid, on 11 June 2013 - 03:52 PM, said:

I'm really happy to see all the analyses going around today! It's really helpful to be able to sift through all these interactions. The problem I am seeing is that everyone suspects almost everyone of being a symp, but almost no one of being scum.

As it stands, I am still convinced that Shadow is scum, so my vote stays there. The only two other places I am willing to move my vote are to Hanas, and, to a slightly lesser degree, Atrahal. The thing that's got me is that if there are two scum left, then why don't they just hammer Shadow? Either Cast or Shadow must be one of the scum, if you ask me.

When I first started writing this up, I didn't think I would begin to feel as suspicious about Karatallid as I eventually have ended up. It's the several things which add up together - the defensive attitude towards the majority of remarks sent his way, coupled with the suspicions of Atrahal and Shadow which almost seem to stem from that same defensiveness, not to mention that the evidence presented against Shadow is not great (in my opinion). Then there's the views on Hanas, which seem to be both suggesting things which I would deem not good thinking for town, and at the same time erodes his Atrahal convictions. On top of that comes stuff like voting for Galayn exactly in the manner he envisages the second killer would vote, making pre-emptive defenses (though Shadow has done that too recently ), and continuing to ask opinions on the non-NKs whilst berating others for doing so.

I believe my vote might lean this way. There is just one problem for me. Earlier I felt Kara was town, because of my belief in Cast as a symp. Cast attacks Kara quite a bit from what I recall, which didn't strike me as particularly symp-like towards Kara, so I wrote Kara off as a killer for that reason. Am I wrong about Cast? Or about Karatallid? Or can the former still be symping the latter?

[Korlat]

Sorry that took so long, I got distracted by RL.

[Atrahal]

Pretty sound.now I'm on my phone I cannot go back and forth as I'd like to. It comes down to us needing for votes for the lynch. I'm thinking of doing a coin toss for my vote.

Nothing Cast has done today has benefited town. Nor has Kara assuaged my doubts. Going into D day who would I prefer not to have on the table as possible scum? Is say Cast, however coin toss said Kara. Earlier today I made some points and posts and various people came up scummy for various reasons.

How about this korlat, we vote off Shadow and see where each of the last two vote tomorrow?

[Atrahal]

For me I was about to vote cast due to "my boss is in town" quote. Then thought that doesn't make him killer.

[Atrahal]

Atrahal, on 11 June 2013 - 09:47 AM, said:

Karatallid, on 04 June 2013 - 04:18 PM, said:

Are people taking Shadow seriously? Given the game setup, D-Day is a lot sooner than most M&P games I have participated in and/or modded, so I wanted it to be clear that we needed to be on our toes. Mafia is a game of math and numbers first, so saying that there is no point in discussing the math and numbers is a load of crap. I think Shadow might be so intent on pushing us away from looking at that, so that scum can get a win quickly.

This, combined with the possible signalling between Shadow and Shelly, makes me want to

vote Shadow


Maybe it's a little OMGUS, but seriously, the load of shit that you're trying to shovel in front of us and call good Mafia theory is ridiculous.

So this is Kara's response. OMGUS, he votes for Shadow today as well.


Okay I'd be willing to vote for Shadow and then Kara or Kara then Shadow. I don't think anyone else stands out as a killer so far. I don't think Shadow is a killer but other people do and I'd vote along with them to clear up Shadow and strengthen the case against Kara.

What throws a spanner in the works is Hanas.

Atrahal, on 11 June 2013 - 09:49 AM, said:

Cast, on 04 June 2013 - 04:22 PM, said:

Shadow, on 04 June 2013 - 04:08 PM, said:

Remove vote

Vote Coast Cast

For providing no meaningful contribution.

If you disagree with a case, you could expand on that more than "I don't see anything there". At least try. Do you think the person is genuinely trying to be helpful, do you think the discussion is useful to have, what?

Do you have any of your own suspicions?

You pointed out two posts by Hood and asked my opinion.
I

See this is why Shadow goes after Hood later, There is a blatant question starting the post, WHAT DO YOU THINK OF KARATALLID? He then posts three accusations towards Kara.

Atrahal, on 11 June 2013 - 09:53 AM, said:

Shadow, on 04 June 2013 - 05:17 PM, said:

Karatallid, on 04 June 2013 - 04:18 PM, said:

Given the game setup, D-Day is a lot sooner than most M&P games I have participated in and/or modded, so I wanted it to be clear that we needed to be on our toes. Mafia is a game of math and numbers first, so saying that there is no point in discussing the math and numbers is a load of crap. I think Shadow might be so intent on pushing us away from looking at that, so that scum can get a win quickly.

My point is that it was completely unnecessary for town to do. Is the D-Day number currently relevant? What's pointing it out going to do? Make us more on our toes? What, cause if we didn't know D-Day wasn't as far away as it is in some games, we'd just not try and find scum or something?

I dislike people bringing up information that looks useful but is currently useless. It is that simple.

The D-Day number is not currently relevant. Moreover, it's not something town should even need pointed out.

Atrahal, on 11 June 2013 - 10:02 AM, said:

Hanas, on 04 June 2013 - 05:43 PM, said:

I'm not interested in talkers on day 1. We need them.

I could go for a Tholen except that there were a couple of people who said they'd be low posting the first part of the week.

I should be around the rest of the day.

Gamelon and Atrahal discussing the sound of music twitched a bit. But if you look for a signal, you'll find one whether it exists or not.

Hanas possibly symping Shadow who is the most vocal of players. He also casts suspicion my way (even though he wasn't interested in talkers)

Atrahal, on 11 June 2013 - 10:11 AM, said:

Karatallid, on 04 June 2013 - 06:53 PM, said:

Given that it seems many people are keen on going the low-poster route this game, and given that it ties into my case on Shadow anyway, I will

remove vote
vote Silchas Ruin

I understand the merit of leaving the chatty players around, as they will give us more information to work with later. Day 1 is a perfect day for a low poster lynch. Historically, we rarely hit scum on Day 1 anyway, so if the low poster ends up not being scum, then we can move on. Plus, as I said, I think that it's possible that Silchas was symping Shadow. It's a given that if this is the case, Silchas will obviously show as town, so we won't get much more information, but I'd certainly like to see a lynch today, and if the Shadow lynch won't take off, then Silchas seems a good second choice to me.

So Shadow has 3 votes and Kara switches.

Now Kara uses me in his case controlling the day one lynch, like I single handedly lynched Silchas when I never, I hadn't posted for quite a while when he posts his switch. Now look at the count before he votes...

Path-Shaper, on 04 June 2013 - 05:20 PM, said:

It is Day 1. 5 hours and 51 minutes remaining

15 Players still alive: Atrahal, Cast, Desra, Galayn Lord, Gamelon, Hanas, Hood's Path, Karatallid, Korlat, Shadow, Silchas Ruin, Skintick, Tholen, Tiamatha, Venesara

8 votes to lynch, 8 votes to go to night.

1 Vote for Skintick ( Tiamatha )
1 Vote for Cast ( Shadow )
3 Votes for Shadow ( Desra, Korlat, Karatallid )
1 Vote for Silchas Ruin ( Atrahal )
1 Vote for Karatallid ( Silchas Ruin )
1 Vote for Atrahal ( Cast )

Players not voted: Galayn Lord, Gamelon, Hanas, Hood's Path, Skintick, Tholen, Venesara

Why not go for Skintick or Cast who have one vote each or bring another player up like Hanas? Why choose to follow my vote unless he is thinking of later in the game.

[Atrahal]

Okay going back and reading my earlier posts, I think we should have lynched Kara not hoods path. There was a quote mix up and it made us think hp was scummy.

I'm going to bed, maybe you all lynch shadow or cast

vote karatallid

[Atrahal]

This vote is torn. If you decide on a better lynch for more concrete reasons then I cannot complain. If I survive the night then I hate scum. I want to die.

[Korlat]

Atrahal, on 11 June 2013 - 09:52 PM, said:

Pretty sound.now I'm on my phone I cannot go back and forth as I'd like to. It comes down to us needing for votes for the lynch. I'm thinking of doing a coin toss for my vote.

Nothing Cast has done today has benefited town. Nor has Kara assuaged my doubts. Going into D day who would I prefer not to have on the table as possible scum? Is say Cast, however coin toss said Kara. Earlier today I made some points and posts and various people came up scummy for various reasons.

How about this korlat, we vote off Shadow and see where each of the last two vote tomorrow?

I don't understand. Why would I vote Shadow?

[Atrahal]

By the way, its half an hour post my bedtime. I'm Fucking titted. That's why my posts are jumbled and I'm posting from my phone.. I can see all the dead people.calling me a huge symp when I'm trying to call it how I see out. Shadow could be scum but I don't believe it. Korlat isn't convinced either and he's a better player than me. If korlat and shadow are paired then that is unfortunate for town. Because they are the only fricking talking people. It'd have been good for cast to come on and call me a thick Dick wad who doesn't understand anything. Look how reasonable hanas sounded before. Tholen says some good things. Tholen could be hanas partner. Cast and hanas. Kara Hamas. Shadow hanas. Kara and cast. Shit heads.

[Atrahal]

You know what I'm tempted to vote shadow to remove him from the game. Then tomorrow I can use his posts to properly dissect this thread. Think on it korlat, remove him today to help us tomorrow.

[Atrahal]

What happens if we don't lynch?

[Korlat]

Atrahal, on 11 June 2013 - 10:12 PM, said:

You know what I'm tempted to vote shadow to remove him from the game. Then tomorrow I can use his posts to properly dissect this thread. Think on it korlat, remove him today to help us tomorrow.

I still don't understand. The only reason for voting Shadow is if you think he's the killer. Him being dead or alive won't make any difference to your ability to dissect his posts. And if you think there will be a tomorrow after Shadow is lynched, then clearly you don't think that he is the killer.

[Atrahal]

I'm going to sleep.m. Please make sure we lynch

[Korlat]

Atrahal, on 11 June 2013 - 10:16 PM, said:

What happens if we don't lynch?

Then we're in the same position tomorrow, minus one person. Presumably someone who's been less on the radar, like me, Tholen, or even you.


Edit: So, essentially the exact same position with the same people discussed, is my meaning.

This post has been edited by Korlat: 11 June 2013 - 10:22 PM