[Galactic Council]

Yes,

His go was to build an orbital (my mistaken move from last time). This gives marginally better outcomes on the simulation, but as IH correctly pointed out, there is no way for Morgoth to make the necessary upgrades and still remain solvent this round. Since he has already made a necessary upgrade to his cruiser, probably best to build one of those.

The alternative is to build the orbital and populate it with a money cube. This would give 2 upgrade actions, which is enough by my estimation to put him in the optimal configuration with the best possible odds of winning (which still is shit odds by the way).

Either way it won't bankrupt him. One choice leaves behind an orbital for D'rek to use should she prevail while the other option does not.

I'm leaning toward doing the orbital because chances are Morgoth is screwed either way. It gives marginally (about 5%) better chance of success, leaves his economy in a slightly better position if victorious and it was his first choice for building anyway, though I have to put a money cube on it instead of the planned science cube.

What do others think?

[twelve]

Do what gives him the best chance of surviving the round so it sounds like building an orbital and populating it with money but I haven't looked at the senarios against D'rek so I'm trusting your mad senario running skills.

[Tattersail_]

I agree, I am sure he would use the best chance of surviving.

[Galactic Council]

Well, I based my scenarios on D'rek having 2 cruisers and 1 dread in their optimal configuration (which happens to be exactly as-is with an imp. hull instead of shields) and Morgoth having either Dread,cruiser,orbital or Dread+2x cruiser. Then tried many combos of layouts for both ships and came up with an optimal configuration for the Dread,cruiser,orbital that seemed to maximize his chances. Possibly there are some better configurations, but I tried a bunch and really couldn't come up with much better.


I dunno, I'm pretty satisfied that I've done my due dilligence and come up with the best possible scenario...so


Morgoth:


Build orbital in Beta Centauri, populate with money cube.

[Gnaw]

Ganoes Paran, on 17 July 2013 - 02:08 PM, said:

Colonise Altair with money cube. Upgrade dread with Imp Hull over both Hull

I'm not trying to be an ass, but you know that was your last unused colony ship right? Your turn 2 shows you flipping two ships back up. Magellans are only allowed by the rules to flip one ship during the course of an influence action.

[Tattersail_]

Yeah, I know I have only one. I just copy pasted so it's all good.

[Tattersail_]

Edited out the last flip. So yeah, no more colony ships yet.

[D'rek]

I agree that Morgoth has a leg up against my Cruiser and Dread, so sparing for an orbital makes sense...

except that I will now

BUIld a cruiser in Eta Geminorum

[Galactic Council]

Fixed colony ships.

@D'rek, dread built.

[D'rek]

Galactic Council, on 17 July 2013 - 04:17 PM, said:

Fixed colony ships.

@D'rek, dread built.

I wish I could build a dread...

[Galactic Council]

Flipping off posts quickly between meetings and other shit going on. I made a cruiser...just mis-typed.

[Galactic Council]

and don't worry, you probably have the fight v.s. morgoth in the bag. My sims are running with him in the high 20s for chance of winning.

[D'rek]

Galactic Council, on 17 July 2013 - 05:46 PM, said:

and don't worry, you probably have the fight v.s. morgoth in the bag. My sims are running with him in the high 20s for chance of winning.

Yeah, but of course he will upgrade to something with winning odds, and then I will counter-upgrade, and so on... again...

I *think* I can pull this off, though (narrowly), now that he doesn't have a huge amount of money in the bank like last round.

[twelve]

I got to thinking. If I were Morgoth I think I might have done something different in his situation. I could have built two interceptors and then moved my Dread and cruiser back into my homeworld while leaving D'rek's two ships pinned. Even non-upgraded those two ships should be able to take out one of D'reks Cruisers. Sure you would be sacrificing a couple of ships to D'rek but at least you keep a couple of big hitters available to live to fight another day. But then again all he is doing is substituting 2 interceptors for another orbial that and it denies D'rek of an orbital when she conquors the hex. So Morgoth then swaps his homeworld for Beta Centauri still have a dread, cruiser and orbital with enough resources to probably build another Dread.

I know it's too late to change his action but I'm curious as to what other think of that idea?

[D'rek]

twelve, on 17 July 2013 - 06:14 PM, said:

I got to thinking. If I were Morgoth I think I might have done something different in his situation. I could have built two interceptors and then moved my Dread and cruiser back into my homeworld while leaving D'rek's two ships pinned. Even non-upgraded those two ships should be able to take out one of D'reks Cruisers. Sure you would be sacrificing a couple of ships to D'rek but at least you keep a couple of big hitters available to live to fight another day. But then again all he is doing is substituting 2 interceptors for another orbial that and it denies D'rek of an orbital when she conquors the hex. So Morgoth then swaps his homeworld for Beta Centauri still have a dread, cruiser and orbital with enough resources to probably build another Dread.

I know it's too late to change his action but I'm curious as to what other think of that idea?

Since I only needed to fight 2 interceptors in Beta Centauri, I wouldn't have needed to build the second cruiser, and I would then still get income from Eta Geminorum and from Beta Centauri at the end of the round. So next round I'd have more than enough materials to build a second dreadnaught as well. So he'd be giving up 6 materials and Beta Centauri while delaying and escalating the battle to the next round, but not necessarily putting him in a better situation ships-wise.

I'd say it would only have really paid off for him if he'd managed to kill the population in Eta Geminorum, giving him more income, and also if it helped him to snag a new technology at the start of round 6 that improves his ships.

OR, in round 6, he could then move his ships again to attack somewhere else and continue avoiding a confrontation, but I'm not sure that would really work out all that well long-term.

[Galactic Council]

Yeah, his instructions were to build an orbital or cruiser. Orbital was slightly better so I went for that.

[Tattersail_]

Is solid up?

[D'rek]

Ganoes Paran, on 17 July 2013 - 10:03 PM, said:

Is solid up?

Yup

[Tattersail_]

I have run a few simulations and I think I could have 75% win against Twelve and 2 Starbases.

 Battle versus Twelve.jpg (79.27K)
Number of downloads: 0


I do not have the money to initiate it this round.

[Tattersail_]

I would need to either use two interceptors to pin his dreads, or make them move another way. I doubt he would use all 4 star bases in any hex other than the GC. I want to take the fight in a hex like the one his dreads are in now.

Or even better in one of my hexes

This post has been edited by Ganoes Paran: 18 July 2013 - 08:44 AM