Bonecaster, on 19 January 2013 - 02:08 AM, said:
OK, lynch me for being annoying if you want, but I'm still trying to understand fundamentals. Numbers were just mentioned, so I'll ask this question that I was thinking of.
So we're starting with 9 Town and 3 Scum. (Where were we told that? Wish I could keep track of this shit!)
If there are lynchings for the first three days, we have a total of 6 dead; 3 lynched and 3 killed. Only 6 left, but no idea how many Town and how many Scum. Any chance there's only 1 Scum left? If so, we're jumping at shadows when we think X is trying to protect Y because they're both Scum.
OTOH, if there are no lynchings for the first three days, there will be nothing but three killings. So there's 9 left after three days. 3 scum , and 6 Town. And we *know* those are the numbers. The killers aren't killing other scum, after all, right? The odds of figuring anything out are better when there are 6 and 3 than they were in the beginning, when there were 9 and 3. Because I) wrong guesses will be more likely to hit Scum; II) the Scum don't have as many to hide among. The information (how many of each) is a sure thing. That has to be the stronger position, doesn't it? Also, we're not wasting three days arguing about people who, it turns out, were clearly not Scum, getting wrong impressions of each other because some genuinely thought those people were Scum.
So why doesn't it make sense to let the Scum kill a few Town? If Town wins, regardless of how many are still alive, then a few sacrifices is a small price to pay for surer victory.
And I guess this is like asking why we shouldn't vote Night, which is another reason to lynch me. Two reasons in one post. Probably not a record, but I'm proud anyway!
I suppose Marilyn vos Savant would tell me my thinking of the odds is wrong, like the doors on The Price is Right.
And I guess no lynchings for a few days would mean a pretty quiet, boring few days.
But boredom and making myself look like Scum for suggesting the idea aside - thinking only in terms of math and odds - what's wrong with this approach to the game?
Oh lord. You really need to stop thinking like this. The odds that you are scum are going through the roof on my Scumdar.
To break it down for you:
Bonecaster, on 19 January 2013 - 02:08 AM, said:
OK, lynch me for being annoying if you want, but I'm still trying to understand fundamentals. Numbers were just mentioned, so I'll ask this question that I was thinking of.
So we're starting with 9 Town and 3 Scum. (Where were we told that? Wish I could keep track of this shit!)
We weren't. It's a guess based on the likely setup (12 players generally equals three scum)
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If there are lynchings for the first three days, we have a total of 6 dead; 3 lynched and 3 killed. Only 6 left, but no idea how many Town and how many Scum. Any chance there's only 1 Scum left? If so, we're jumping at shadows when we think X is trying to protect Y because they're both Scum.
This is a quirk of no CF games. It's going to make the final day or two VERY neurotic. But that's kinda the point. I'm thinking Bubba might give us a scum count at some point - but that's just a guess.
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OTOH, if there are no lynchings for the first three days, there will be nothing but three killings. So there's 9 left after three days. 3 scum , and 6 Town. And we *know* those are the numbers. The killers aren't killing other scum, after all, right? The odds of figuring anything out are better when there are 6 and 3 than they were in the beginning, when there were 9 and 3. Because I) wrong guesses will be more likely to hit Scum; II) the Scum don't have as many to hide among. The information (how many of each) is a sure thing. That has to be the stronger position, doesn't it? Also, we're not wasting three days arguing about people who, it turns out, were clearly not Scum, getting wrong impressions of each other because some genuinely thought those people were Scum.
No. This is where your thinking is going wrong. Generally there are not three KILLERS, there would be two Killers and one "Symp". Now, the Symp will know the Killers, but they will not know him. I.e. they might accidentally NK him and thus reduce their own numbers. Plus what you're talking about is putting us voluntarily closer to D-Day without any thread interaction or viable leads. It would be like starting a game with 9 players and three scum - that's insane!
It's a fundamental of mafia that those "wrong impressions" are what help us work out the right impressions. Watching how everyone interacts tells you things - even if those are
wrong things.
And again, we're only ASSUMING the number of scum.
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So why doesn't it make sense to let the Scum kill a few Town? If Town wins, regardless of how many are still alive, then a few sacrifices is a small price to pay for surer victory.
And I guess this is like asking why we shouldn't vote Night, which is another reason to lynch me. Two reasons in one post. Probably not a record, but I'm proud anyway!
I suppose Marilyn vos Savant would tell me my thinking of the odds is wrong, like the doors on The Price is Right.
And I guess no lynchings for a few days would mean a pretty quiet, boring few days.
But boredom and making myself look like Scum for suggesting the idea aside - thinking only in terms of math and odds - what's wrong with this approach to the game?
So yeah, it's a bit like your impression of the odds are off - it's a little bit different to how you expect. And besides, you're essentially saying that we might as well make it so that three people don't get to actually play the game. Which is jut sad.
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