[Eloth]

Meanas, on 06 June 2012 - 09:32 AM, said:

Eloth, here's what I'm thinking. We may need to get everyone we can behind us. Consider this: If you reveal the other CL that you know of, it incentivizes both them and their 1-2 recruits to join in and help get this mess of a situation nailed down.

If we have enough Osserics in this game, we're going to hell a lot sooner than any of us would like. I'd get it all on the table. No one is permanently on any one team remember, and even if the CLs refrained from stealing recruits and instead converting all of town, we still have BM hopping from one player to the next, disrupting cult teams willy-nilly. This is now a cooperative game for cults and town.

Town can hope to win if the cults are contentious and mess with each other (plus, BM is going to be hacking us down really fast), so it is also in town's best interest to cooperate.

Ivy and the Penguin can decide for themselves, or use their broadcasts to direct their recruit(s) or give a statement of intent. A reveal of recruits and/or CLs is going to aid a bit short term in nailing the first Batman. It isn't going to do much in the long term, whereas Batman profits long term from each outed CL.

[Osseric]

Meanas, on 06 June 2012 - 09:36 AM, said:

Osseric, on 06 June 2012 - 09:30 AM, said:

I really like how you say you do not like me, Meanas, then say it's because you don't think I'm town, then reveal you are a Joker recruit. No wonder. It makes Thyr suspicios as well.

I don't like you cause I think Eloth's right, there is a good chance you are BM from the way you are acting. You could be a CL trying to cap a can of worms, but that seems less likely cause if no one knows you are a CL, now would be a time I'd expect you to melt into the background and stay out of it. But you aren't, you are calling quite a bit of attention on yourself.

Though, if I am wrong and you are town, I do not look forward to fighting you and BM. I worry that people won't be able to think outside the box and will play this game as mafia business as usual, not seeing the ramifications of thinking only in the short term.

Either way, you are doing yourself no favors in my favor.

I've been fishing Eloth for information. And you fault me for this? I guess so seeing as Day 1 you are playing to be recruited, then you're not sure if town wins if Batman kills all 4 CLs, now you're mad at someone stepping up to try and figure out a few things. The only reason for all this is because everyone who has posted in the last two hours is not town. You can think how and what you want.


EDIT: everyone who posted against me^
Just to be clear.

This post has been edited by Osseric: 06 June 2012 - 09:44 AM

[Eloth]

Osseric, on 06 June 2012 - 09:42 AM, said:

Meanas, on 06 June 2012 - 09:36 AM, said:

Osseric, on 06 June 2012 - 09:30 AM, said:

I really like how you say you do not like me, Meanas, then say it's because you don't think I'm town, then reveal you are a Joker recruit. No wonder. It makes Thyr suspicios as well.

I don't like you cause I think Eloth's right, there is a good chance you are BM from the way you are acting. You could be a CL trying to cap a can of worms, but that seems less likely cause if no one knows you are a CL, now would be a time I'd expect you to melt into the background and stay out of it. But you aren't, you are calling quite a bit of attention on yourself.

Though, if I am wrong and you are town, I do not look forward to fighting you and BM. I worry that people won't be able to think outside the box and will play this game as mafia business as usual, not seeing the ramifications of thinking only in the short term.

Either way, you are doing yourself no favors in my favor.

I've been fishing Eloth for information. And you fault me for this? I guess so seeing as Day 1 you are playing to be recruited, then you're not sure if town wins if Batman kills all 4 CLs, now you're mad at someone stepping up to try and figure out a few things. The only reason for all this is because everyone who has posted in the last two hours is not town. You can think how and what you want.

That includes you, apparently.

[Osseric]

Eloth, on 06 June 2012 - 09:44 AM, said:

Osseric, on 06 June 2012 - 09:42 AM, said:

Meanas, on 06 June 2012 - 09:36 AM, said:

Osseric, on 06 June 2012 - 09:30 AM, said:

I really like how you say you do not like me, Meanas, then say it's because you don't think I'm town, then reveal you are a Joker recruit. No wonder. It makes Thyr suspicios as well.

I don't like you cause I think Eloth's right, there is a good chance you are BM from the way you are acting. You could be a CL trying to cap a can of worms, but that seems less likely cause if no one knows you are a CL, now would be a time I'd expect you to melt into the background and stay out of it. But you aren't, you are calling quite a bit of attention on yourself.

Though, if I am wrong and you are town, I do not look forward to fighting you and BM. I worry that people won't be able to think outside the box and will play this game as mafia business as usual, not seeing the ramifications of thinking only in the short term.

Either way, you are doing yourself no favors in my favor.

I've been fishing Eloth for information. And you fault me for this? I guess so seeing as Day 1 you are playing to be recruited, then you're not sure if town wins if Batman kills all 4 CLs, now you're mad at someone stepping up to try and figure out a few things. The only reason for all this is because everyone who has posted in the last two hours is not town. You can think how and what you want.

That includes you, apparently.

EDIT came in before your post, actually. So I guess not.

[Meanas]

Eloth, on 06 June 2012 - 09:41 AM, said:

Meanas, on 06 June 2012 - 09:32 AM, said:

Eloth, here's what I'm thinking. We may need to get everyone we can behind us. Consider this: If you reveal the other CL that you know of, it incentivizes both them and their 1-2 recruits to join in and help get this mess of a situation nailed down.

If we have enough Osserics in this game, we're going to hell a lot sooner than any of us would like. I'd get it all on the table. No one is permanently on any one team remember, and even if the CLs refrained from stealing recruits and instead converting all of town, we still have BM hopping from one player to the next, disrupting cult teams willy-nilly. This is now a cooperative game for cults and town.

Town can hope to win if the cults are contentious and mess with each other (plus, BM is going to be hacking us down really fast), so it is also in town's best interest to cooperate.

Ivy and the Penguin can decide for themselves, or use their broadcasts to direct their recruit(s) or give a statement of intent. A reveal of recruits and/or CLs is going to aid a bit short term in nailing the first Batman. It isn't going to do much in the long term, whereas Batman profits long term from each outed CL.

Fair enough, but you realize though that our best hope of winning may be contingent of all out cooperation?

One of the best things for the opposing teams in mafia is obfuscation and confusion. Means that lynches are less accurate and that some random happenstance eliminates their enemies for them. This is above all true for BM, who has two motivations: survival and VCs.

BM now has a distinct advantage in that he has at least 2 of his 4 VCs all wrapped up nicely for his taking. The rest of us have to iron out all this confusion, figure out what to do with 5 squabbling factions, and then agree to get batman before he can find the other two CLs (which he may not need to do seeing that a lynch would take care of that for him).

Moreover, a CL is going to look somewhat like BM. Play style may not be all that different, which leaves us with the problem of lynching a CL v lynching BM. Time is not on our side, and the longer we take to work out a strategy (over cycles not over then next few hours btw, I recognize we have some time so we don't have to rush this current conversation) the more likely a BM win.

[Thyrllan]

I can't help but feel that this game is looking like a good example of how not to play Mafia

I don't understand why Meanas would reveal. And I'm confused, which exactly which two cult leaders have been discovered? Eloth is two face and Amp is?

Bewilderment is a very cool word.

[Meanas]

Poison Ivy and Penguin, a few thoughts for you:

Right now, you BCS have 1-2 other people on your teams, correct? That is no where near enough for you to win. You may survive for a couple more days while BM picks off the low hanging fruit, but at the same time, without an organized front, you are likely to get NK'd (I remind you that RI's are most likely not RI's any longer) or lynched. I know that you have some protection, but if the hail of bullets isn't directed, there are going to be some random hits.

I understand that revealing takes away a great advantage for one of you (namely being unknown to both BM and the other CLs), but with kills flying everywhere, the CLs recruiting (which means a high likelihood of bumping into each other), and town lynching blindly, do you really think leaving your win to mostly luck is going to serve your purposes?

I know BM jumps, and that after getting him the first time, we will have to review everyone all over again (except for the CLs, the more we know, the less BM suspects we have). But I think that cooperation is going to make finding him easier and more likely, and if you survive till BM only has 1 life left, then you can start up your quibbling ways again and try to maximize your faction before the last BM goes down.

That's my assessment. i have to go to work unfortunately, but I ask you to consider the repercussions of a flailing voting RI population now armed with actions.

[Karosis]

Morning everyone. Seems people have been busy in my absence! Good job guys!

I think we need to be careful about what we choose to believe of Eloth's claims. We have the following things confirmed by both Ampelas and Eloth:

- Eloth is Two-Face.

And pretty much everything else is information supplied by Eloth and Eloth only, eg:

- Ampelas is the Joker.
- Cult have a double recruit on the first night.

I think we can take "Eloth is Two-Face" as true, because it has been confirmed by both parties involved. I don't think we can assume that the rest are true just on Eloth's word. She has good reason to lie - by making Ampelas seem like an attractive lynch target she gives herself a chance of not being lynched straight away (as she pretty much admitted herself). So treat those claims with a very liberal pinch of salt, if you would.

[Karosis]

As for the information from Meanas about being recruited, that seemed to come out of the blue. I guess if he's telling the truth, he could confirm/deny Eloth's claim about Ampelas. But there's no way he'd reveal that sort of information willingly, so I doubt we'd get it from him. The other possibility worth considering is that Meanas is fake revealing here. Two reasons he might do that:

1) He's the Joker. There would be no-one to counter reveal against him, since any recruits he may have would be loyal to him. This could be a ploy to shield him from attacks from the Batman.

2) He's the Batman. He's looking to get the Joker to counter-reveal, and in doing so draw out another one of the Cult Leaders into the open. If the Joker doesn't counter-reveal, then he can safely hide from lynching (since there is zero upside to town lynching a recruit at this point).

Now, I'm not saying either of these are necessarily true (he might just be telling the truth), but they are possibilities we have to consider.

[Eloth]

Karosis, on 06 June 2012 - 10:04 AM, said:

Morning everyone. Seems people have been busy in my absence! Good job guys!

I think we need to be careful about what we choose to believe of Eloth's claims. We have the following things confirmed by both Ampelas and Eloth:

- Eloth is Two-Face.

And pretty much everything else is information supplied by Eloth and Eloth only, eg:

- Ampelas is the Joker.
- Cult have a double recruit on the first night.

I think we can take "Eloth is Two-Face" as true, because it has been confirmed by both parties involved. I don't think we can assume that the rest are true just on Eloth's word. She has good reason to lie - by making Ampelas seem like an attractive lynch target she gives herself a chance of not being lynched straight away (as she pretty much admitted herself). So treat those claims with a very liberal pinch of salt, if you would.

Oh, but I nowhere said everyone can recruit twice. I can (once per game) and used it, but then, I robbed a bank on the 2nd of february at 2.00 in the afternoon once. For me, all good things come in two. Like shoes. No clue about the others, but it is the kind of ability that I'd assume others have as well - otherwise I'd have a very distinct advantage over them.

[Thyrllan]

You have a point.

But then there's that message from the Joker saying that Osseric is BM, unless I'm mistaken? (which is possible keep up with thread is currently a nightmare for me)

[Eloth]

Karosis, on 06 June 2012 - 10:12 AM, said:

As for the information from Meanas about being recruited, that seemed to come out of the blue. I guess if he's telling the truth, he could confirm/deny Eloth's claim about Ampelas. But there's no way he'd reveal that sort of information willingly, so I doubt we'd get it from him. The other possibility worth considering is that Meanas is fake revealing here. Two reasons he might do that:

1) He's the Joker. There would be no-one to counter reveal against him, since any recruits he may have would be loyal to him. This could be a ploy to shield him from attacks from the Batman.

2) He's the Batman. He's looking to get the Joker to counter-reveal, and in doing so draw out another one of the Cult Leaders into the open. If the Joker doesn't counter-reveal, then he can safely hide from lynching (since there is zero upside to town lynching a recruit at this point).

Now, I'm not saying either of these are necessarily true (he might just be telling the truth), but they are possibilities we have to consider.

So you really think recruits learn their master's alt when there's a message system in place, and recruits can move on between recruiters?

[Karosis]

Finally, Osseric has made a couple posts in the last few pages that make me very suspicious. I don't have time to go through and quote them now, but when I have more time later I'll come back and take a look at them. Must get back to my work now.

[Eloth]

Karosis, on 06 June 2012 - 10:19 AM, said:

Finally, Osseric has made a couple posts in the last few pages that make me very suspicious. I don't have time to go through and quote them now, but when I have more time later I'll come back and take a look at them. Must get back to my work now.

That's because he is the goddamned Batman...

[Korvalain]

Reveals abound!

My first question (there will be more coming, once I do some more careful reading) is aimed at Eloth. Why are you so convinced that Osseric is Batman? Do you legitimately know, or are you guessing based on what he has said on thread?

[Osseric]

All I did was badger Eloth for information, then everyone got all pissy because they said we shouldn't out all the CLs, yet. All I did was ask questions. If any information would have been given in answer, that would be on them. Horrible argument. No one has to answer me just because I asked Eloth to turn in the identity of the other CLs.

[Telas]

And to think that I was this close to pouring suspicion on Amp being a finder when he first said it by saying why would a group of thugs have a finder - wouldn't they have some offensive roles instead? But then I thought nah, I guess it is possible we have a finder

This is all very interesting. The two most interesting things:

Liosan: Yes, we would all love to have as much information as possible. But we don't want all of that information to be broadcast on the thread for everyone, including Batman to see. I in no way think it's a good idea for town to have three CLs known on thread at this point. Not unless we have the highest confidence in our Batman finding abilities.

Meanas: You're suggesting cooperation between cults and town. However, such cooperation (in the sense that we don't lynch your leaders), will inevitably lead to the destruction of town. So I hardly see what's in it for town to not lynch Eloth and (depending on if he comes back with anything different to tell us) Ampelas.

[Telas]

Osseric, on 06 June 2012 - 10:58 AM, said:

All I did was badger Eloth for information, then everyone got all pissy because they said we shouldn't out all the CLs, yet. All I did was ask questions. If any information would have been given in answer, that would be on them. Horrible argument. No one has to answer me just because I asked Eloth to turn in the identity of the other CLs.

The very fact that you asked suggests one of two things:

1) You're a silly excited townie not thinking about the repurcussions.

Or

2) You're not town at all.

[Osseric]

Telas, on 06 June 2012 - 11:03 AM, said:

Osseric, on 06 June 2012 - 10:58 AM, said:

All I did was badger Eloth for information, then everyone got all pissy because they said we shouldn't out all the CLs, yet. All I did was ask questions. If any information would have been given in answer, that would be on them. Horrible argument. No one has to answer me just because I asked Eloth to turn in the identity of the other CLs.

The very fact that you asked suggests one of two things:

1) You're a silly excited townie not thinking about the repurcussions.

Or

2) You're not town at all.

About the repurcussions of what? If Eloth decides to answer me? If he even decides to tell us the TRUTH? If we even believe him if he tells us the truth? Hardly.

[Telas]

@ Eloth

A non-reveal others question: Do you have any killing powers available to you? I.e. do you have to manipulate town into lynching the right choice (i.e. Batman) or can you take him out yourself?