[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 1. 9 hours and 38 minutes left

22 people are still alive : Ampelas, Anomandaris, Anthras, Atrahal, D'riss, Eloth, Emurlahn, Fener, Galain, Karosis, Korbas, Korvalain, Liosan, Meanas, Omtose, Osseric, Rashan, Sheptatha Lore, Spite, Telas, Thyrllan, Tulas Shorn

takes 12 votes to lynch or 11 to go to night.

1 votes for Omtose (Karosis)
1 vote for Fener ( Rashan)
1 vote for Eloth (Galain)
1 vote for Spite (Emurlahn)
1 vote for Rashan (Meanas)
3 votes for Meanas (Spite, Galain, Eloth)

-Liz

[Meanas]

A storm of self-righteousness.

[Atrahal]

FWIW, I don't think Meanas is guilty of anything other than fatalism. I agree with his analysis in that it's gonna be hard for town to win given that all recruit actions are successful (barring exemptions in OP). I don't think he said anywhere though that that meant townies shouldn't play to win while they still can!

Far as I can see, Town's best strategy has to be to alternate between lynching recruiters and BM until there remain only 2 cult leaders (to divide BM's attention). Then get BM, and hope we can do it in time so that we still have plurality. The choice of BM vs. Cult leader will have to be a fluid one depending on the results of night actions.

As of now, I am suspicious of D'riss, but I can't find the quote that triggered that suspicion. Will see if I can scare it up in a mo.

[Meanas]

Ok, so here's the scoop: Apparently I misunderstood game mechanics. As per usual, I thought that town, having no chance of winning in my perspective, was more of a starting block for the rest of the soon to grow factions. I decided that the best strategy for myself and soon to be team was to go after batman, end up recruited (or not sense obviously I was being an idiot), and then play the dynamics of a continually changing faction game where only the recruiters were certainly on one team.

My mistake.


So if I'm around, I'll keep playing by Ment's ruling, but more than likely, I'm the first lynch. I apologize to waste your time townies. If somehow our faction wins, and I stand corrected, profuse apologies will abound. But as I so candidly said, the strategy seems in favor of cults and batman with town as an afterthought.

If I'm not lynched, you can be assured I'll play as if my misunderstanding is water under the bridge, and I'll do a 180. Your choice.

[Atrahal]

D, on 05 June 2012 - 02:24 AM, said:

Huh.

It is not like "playing to be recruited" has not been done in the past.

But, I don't like the attitude. At all. In fact, it is against my interests.

As of now, you are where my vote is going, but I do wonder about bored town syndrome.

Why would playing to be recruited be against D'riss's interests?

* Clearly, it would be against their interests if they were town and wished to win as town
* Also, it would be against their interests if they were Batman, and wished town to maintain a divide and conquer front against the cults!

Thus, for me this is the first real, even-close-to-substantial indication that anyone is Batman, and so:



Vote D'riss

[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 1. 9 hours and 13 minutes left

22 people are still alive : Ampelas, Anomandaris, Anthras, Atrahal, D'riss, Eloth, Emurlahn, Fener, Galain, Karosis, Korbas, Korvalain, Liosan, Meanas, Omtose, Osseric, Rashan, Sheptatha Lore, Spite, Telas, Thyrllan, Tulas Shorn

takes 12 votes to lynch or 11 to go to night.

1 votes for Omtose (Karosis)
1 vote for Fener (Rashan)
1 vote for Eloth (Galain)
1 vote for Spite (Emurlahn)
1 vote for Rashan (Meanas)
3 votes for Meanas (Spite, Galain, Eloth)
1 vote for D'riss (Atrahal

-Liz

[Atrahal]

Atrahal, on 05 June 2012 - 10:37 AM, said:

D, on 05 June 2012 - 02:24 AM, said:

Huh.

It is not like "playing to be recruited" has not been done in the past.

But, I don't like the attitude. At all. In fact, it is against my interests.

As of now, you are where my vote is going, but I do wonder about bored town syndrome.

Why would playing to be recruited be against D'riss's interests?

* Clearly, it would be against their interests if they were town and wished to win as town
* Also, it would be against their interests if they were Batman, and wished town to maintain a divide and conquer front against the cults!

Thus, for me this is the first real, even-close-to-substantial indication that anyone is Batman, and so:



Vote D'riss

I've just realised why this quote made me so suspicious -- D'riss says 'against my interests.' (Underline mine.) Why would a town player use the singular here, rather than 'our' or 'town's' interests? This really points to D'riss being non-town, IMO.

[Telas]

Now, a lot of people have warned against taking the Joker's message regarding Osseric seriously. But I thought I would take a look at those people who've pushed it/become interested in Osseric the most both before and following that message.

This is because I figure that the people who would be most interested in finding out who Osseric is are the cult recruiters and Batman. The Penguin has already come out and essentially said in another message that he suspects Osseric of being the Joker.

So there are three main suspects: Rashan, Emurlahn, and Anomandaris. Rashan first:

Rashan, on 04 June 2012 - 08:03 PM, said:

Path-Shaper, on 04 June 2012 - 07:57 PM, said:

And they all got something to say:

Quote

"My dear dragons, we stand on a great threshold! It's okay to be scared; many of you won't be coming back. Thanks to Batman, the time has come to punish all of the Gods children! Why be biased? Male and female! Hell, all the seckses are equal with their erogenous zones blown sky high! Forward march! The liberation of Arkham has begun!"

Hmmm, so Eloth and Korvalain make references to Dragonsecks, and Sheltatha and Spite both chime in once or twice about it, but I think the above post is more likely trying to throw some suspicion on them rather than tying to them... Osseric and Galain both disparaged Dragonsecks, so I'm thinking one of them is the recruiter, or, again, someone's trying to divert attention.

Rashan puts Osseric's name out there in analysis of another recruiter's message (the Penguin's?).

Rashan, on 04 June 2012 - 08:52 PM, said:

Korbas, on 04 June 2012 - 08:45 PM, said:

Osseric. And I'm betting Atrahal is Joker, he obscured the name because it is against his rules to say it outright?

Would make sense, flavor-wise. The Joker knew who Batman was.

Vote Atrahal

I'm not sure whether voting the supposed batman would be a good idea or not at this stage. Getting recruiters early seems nice, but idk.

This doesn't make sense to me. If he has to obscure his name, why would he be allowed to come on right after the PS post and decipher it for us?

As for the Joker wanting us to look at Osseric, I don't like it. I think he's just screwing with us. Osseric certainly hasn't done anything to yay or nay the suspicion though, though he did deflect Galain away from him and onto Korv... Either way, I'm leaning towards Joker trying to screw with us.

After Joker's message, Rashan does come out and say he doesn't believe it in any way - but he then adds provisos that actually Osseric might not be all that clean anyway. Rashan does not explain whether Osseric's supposed deflection of Galain onto Korv is supposed to strengthen or weaken suspicion against him, and so ends up as just a statement designed to itself throw suspicion onto Osseric.


That's it from Rashan, now for Emurlahn, who is a lot more active in this regard:

Emurlahn, on 04 June 2012 - 09:06 PM, said:

Meanas, on 04 June 2012 - 09:02 PM, said:

Well, town lynch of recruiter on day 1 is silly. I mean, what's the use? We don't have teams, and the longer we wait, the more people will have teams, and the more spread out those people will be. I mean, yeah, we'll be competing, but at least we won't have 3 big-uns as opposed to 4 smaller-uns.

And Batman? He's the ememy of all. If we hit him day one, all the better for us. That simple

I've just hit myself in the head. We won't win the game unless the Batman is dead. So are you going to believe the Joker and go for Osseric? What do we have to lose?

Emur's fishing for other people's reactions, seeing if he has enough support to throw a vote behind it, it looks like. The 'what do we have to lose' line is trying to downplay any negative connotations to lynching Osseric immediately.

Emurlahn, on 04 June 2012 - 09:45 PM, said:

The thing is i'd vote along but I pose a question. If you were the recruiter and there were 22 players playing this game and you'd have to last at least 1 maybe 2 days for a symp to show up or a succesful recruit to go through then how would you play? Personally i'd want to lay low, amongst the lower echelons of our comrades. That way if accused of low posting I could blame RL issues or come up with any kind of excuse. 4 cult leaders. Not all of them would play the same. You could say middle of the road people but we have had enough games to know what works and what doesn't. From Spite up to Fener would be a good guess for at least one if not two or three cult leaders. So that is Spite, Osseric, Sheltatha, Korvalian, Omtose and Fener.

My reasoning would be that this is going to be a long game so I wouldn't want to be alted, or caught on my lack of knowledge of the town role and if I stay low until I recruit then i'll have a symp to steer the thread away from me and my faction.

My vote is on Spite due to his comment just after the Joker broadcast. Osseric is in doubt because of the deciphered message. Someone mentioned Omtose earlier and the other three also look suspect.

Votes for Spite but as we'll see further down the focus actually remains on Osseric. In this particular quote above he names both in his list of suspects fairly early on.

Emurlahn, on 04 June 2012 - 10:12 PM, said:

Shelly has about 8 posts all of which are a vote. I don't know why he's done this as it makes your vote seem less important yet I cannot see a recruiter doing this, unless that was his intention in which case

Osseric

easiest to quote wow looky here...

Quote

• I do not, actually. You guys were eager. What have I missed? Please skip the sex if anyone answers.
• Still recovering from last game. My soul is worn thin at the moment.
• Anyone that dresses in tights should be labeled a criminal. So ESPECIALLY batman.
• You would have been better off not stepping up to take a swing at that pitch.
• talking about korv feeling the need to defend not your remark
• Only a slight possibility so far, and not for the same reasons as you. Probably nothing, though. Right?
• What is sad is that this is actually the type of reasoning we will end up using for our Day 1 anyway.

Bored townie? Or something more? No thoughts on the game, nothing to add or produce discussion just a few one liners.

The case-making on Osseric begins above.

Emurlahn, on 05 June 2012 - 03:18 AM, said:

Anomandaris, on 05 June 2012 - 01:27 AM, said:

Ok, so I finally actually caught up.

Here are my thoughts.

If town needs to have more than any of the cults for a victory at bowel movement's time of death, then taking out one of the leaders wouldn't be a bad idea.

So we have joker pointing at Osseric as bowel movement. I don't see how Joker could have any idea who bowel movement is, so possibly A) Joker really does think that Oss is bowel movement and would like to see him taken down a life. B--) (Sorry for dashes, trying to avoid a smiley appearing instead) The Joker thinks that Oss is one of the other cult leaders and wants to toss some heat on him. C) The joker is actually Oss, and put his own name in there to throw townsfolk off (or just as a joke). And finally D) Oss is just a random-ass name that the joker threw in.

Thoughts anyone? I'm physically exhausted after reading/posting this. Ill check back later.

The thoughts on your post is that Osseric would be the best lynch. Due to him being BM or CL.

I have strong suspicions that Meanas is town.

Here we are then, Osseric is the best lynch. He uses Anomandaris' post, in which 3 of the 4 options point to Osseric being Batman or a cult recruiter. Notice though, that we haven't had any actual interaction with/prodding of Osseric himself from Emurlahn, this has all just been suggestive asides and responses to other people's posts. But wait for it.....

Emurlahn, on 05 June 2012 - 03:20 AM, said:

Osseric, on 05 June 2012 - 01:30 AM, said:

Korbas, on 04 June 2012 - 09:23 PM, said:

Should we make everyone say Osseric is Batman?

Osseric is Batman

I've almost caught up, but I didn't catch the part where what I said or did made me Batman, unless it was something to do with my very brief look at korv's criminal slip(or honest mistake) or Eloth. Back to reading.

I fail to believe you here. Everyone is talking about The Joker's broadcast and your implication in it and the post above yours also mentions it.

Fail to believe what (as Osseric himself says later)? This just comes across as an attack - based on misreading of Osseric's post, yes - but often misreadings come from someone getting too excited about their suspect and trying to use anything to further fan the flames. The question is: Why is Emurlahn so excited/interested in Osseric?

Emurlahn, on 05 June 2012 - 03:40 AM, said:

Bed for me now as well me thinks.Plenty of time left. My top 2 so far for CL or BM are Spite and Osseric. I'll read up more tomorrow

Confirmation of the preference for an Osseric vote (though with the safety net of Spite added). What is interesting is that Emurlahn doesn't really use the Joker's message to get his suspicion of Osseric across - instead he posts a little about Osseric's lack of content, and uses others' interpretations of the Joker's message in order to continue keeping Osseric as the primary focus.

Okay, before final conclusions, here's Anomandaris:

[Telas]

Anomandaris, on 05 June 2012 - 01:16 AM, said:

Path-Shaper, on 05 June 2012 - 12:19 AM, said:

You all stand around staring daggers at each other. or at least wishing you had daggers. or at least shanks.

then the Radio picks up the Bowery PA system again, and you hear Penguin's cockney voice again:

Quote

Touring the riot scene. Gravely assessing the devastation. Upstanding mayor stuff. FFS HAS NO ONE CONSIDERED THAT OSSERIC IS THE JOKER?"

DAMNIT! I was trying to read this but my main thought was that Osseric was the joker and put his own name in his announcement as a...well...joke. Too much stuffs to read through.

First person outside of the Penguin to suggest Osseric might be the Joker.

Anomandaris, on 05 June 2012 - 01:41 AM, said:

Karosis, on 05 June 2012 - 01:33 AM, said:

Anomandaris, on 05 June 2012 - 01:27 AM, said:

Ok, so I finally actually caught up.

Here are my thoughts.

If town needs to have more than any of the cults for a victory at bowel movement's time of death, then taking out one of the leaders wouldn't be a bad idea.

So we have joker pointing at Osseric as bowel movement. I don't see how Joker could have any idea who bowel movement is, so possibly A) Joker really does think that Oss is bowel movement and would like to see him taken down a life. B--) (Sorry for dashes, trying to avoid a smiley appearing instead) The Joker thinks that Oss is one of the other cult leaders and wants to toss some heat on him. C) The joker is actually Oss, and put his own name in there to throw townsfolk off (or just as a joke). And finally D) Oss is just a random-ass name that the joker threw in.

Thoughts anyone? I'm physically exhausted after reading/posting this. Ill check back later.

I don't think I've ever seen a WIFOM statement as blatant as the Joker's "Osseric is the Batman" statement. As you say, there's no way the Joker can have any legitimate knowledge of who the Batman is at this point, so I don't see why there's any reason to treat his pronouncements with more strength than if a random player tossed out the opinion "I think Osseric is the Batman" without any evidence to back it up - eg. none.

So basically your logic (which I think is totally sound) destroys my option B and A. So now I'm down to Osseric is a random name thrown, likely, or Joker is osseric. I may thrown a vote on him if I'm not wholly convinced he isnt joker further into day 1.

Ano backs away from two of his stated options at the first sign of pressure against them, but doesn't back away from a preference for an Osseric vote, continuing to insist that he could well be the Joker (by the way, I really don't think any of the cult recruiters would throw their own name in that way, just invites too much attention).


So as we saw from the Penguin's message, at least one of the cult recruiters is very interested to know who Osseric is. The Joker, too, presumably would like us to keep all of our attention on Osseric, which is what the likes of Emurlahn have been doing. I am willing to bet that in the likely circumstance that Osseric is not Batman, then that Batman too would very much like to see if Osseric is actually one of the cult recruiters.

So for now

Vote Emurlahn

[Telas]

Now for an addendum to everything I just said

I found this post by D'riss below strange:

D, on 05 June 2012 - 01:39 AM, said:

Karosis, on 05 June 2012 - 01:33 AM, said:

Anomandaris, on 05 June 2012 - 01:27 AM, said:

Ok, so I finally actually caught up.

Here are my thoughts.

If town needs to have more than any of the cults for a victory at bowel movement's time of death, then taking out one of the leaders wouldn't be a bad idea.

So we have joker pointing at Osseric as bowel movement. I don't see how Joker could have any idea who bowel movement is, so possibly A) Joker really does think that Oss is bowel movement and would like to see him taken down a life. B--) (Sorry for dashes, trying to avoid a smiley appearing instead) The Joker thinks that Oss is one of the other cult leaders and wants to toss some heat on him. C) The joker is actually Oss, and put his own name in there to throw townsfolk off (or just as a joke). And finally D) Oss is just a random-ass name that the joker threw in.

Thoughts anyone? I'm physically exhausted after reading/posting this. Ill check back later.

I don't think I've ever seen a WIFOM statement as blatant as the Joker's "Osseric is the Batman" statement. As you say, there's no way the Joker can have any legitimate knowledge of who the Batman is at this point, so I don't see why there's any reason to treat his pronouncements with more strength than if a random player tossed out the opinion "I think Osseric is the Batman" without any evidence to back it up - eg. none.

Which is why I didn't play along, by the way.

Why does D'riss feel the need to point out that he didn't get involved with the Osseric thing? He's just popped up to respond to something in order to distance himself from it - when no one even mentioned his name with regards to it?

[Telas]

Atrahal, on 05 June 2012 - 10:37 AM, said:

D, on 05 June 2012 - 02:24 AM, said:

Huh.

It is not like "playing to be recruited" has not been done in the past.

But, I don't like the attitude. At all. In fact, it is against my interests.

As of now, you are where my vote is going, but I do wonder about bored town syndrome.

Why would playing to be recruited be against D'riss's interests?

* Clearly, it would be against their interests if they were town and wished to win as town
* Also, it would be against their interests if they were Batman, and wished town to maintain a divide and conquer front against the cults!

Thus, for me this is the first real, even-close-to-substantial indication that anyone is Batman, and so:



Vote D'riss

Actually, this post of D'riss' raised my eyebrow too. It sounded like someone trying a bit too hard to be identified as townie without actually saying that's what they were.

[D'riss]

Oh, please. Someone mentioned it and it was my way of agreeing.

Also, Occam's razor. Either I'm stupid enough to say "my interests" whilst being Batman or "my interests" could likely change at some point in time. Read earlier where I said, "as of right now, finding Batman is my priority" because at some point, that might change (i.e., I might get recruited, I might be named a successor, etc.).

[D'riss]

As of town strategy, which continues to be talked about, frankly all these idea scenarios are great and all, but we generally can't catch shit, let alone do so in a manner approaching ideal. So odds are, first baddie to be caught will dictate strategy from that point on.

That being said, I'm off for work. Won't be back before time-out.

I said it is where I was leaning last night, and it's where I'll go because I see nothing better to me as of right now.

Vote Meanas

[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 1. 8 hours and 17 minutes left

22 people are still alive : Ampelas, Anomandaris, Anthras, Atrahal, D'riss, Eloth, Emurlahn, Fener, Galain, Karosis, Korbas, Korvalain, Liosan, Meanas, Omtose, Osseric, Rashan, Sheptatha Lore, Spite, Telas, Thyrllan, Tulas Shorn

takes 12 votes to lynch or 11 to go to night.

1 votes for Omtose (Karosis)
1 vote for Fener (Rashan)
1 vote for Eloth (Galain)
1 vote for Spite (Emurlahn)
1 vote for Rashan (Meanas)
4 votes for Meanas (Spite, Galain, Eloth,D'riss)
1 vote for D'riss (Atrahal)
1 vote for Emurlahn (Telas)

-Liz

[Atrahal]

D, on 05 June 2012 - 11:24 AM, said:

Oh, please. Someone mentioned it and it was my way of agreeing.

Also, Occam's razor. Either I'm stupid enough to say "my interests" whilst being Batman or "my interests" could likely change at some point in time. Read earlier where I said, "as of right now, finding Batman is my priority" because at some point, that might change (i.e., I might get recruited, I might be named a successor, etc.).

The point remains, however, that until such a change occurs, there should be nothing to distinguish any true townie from any other, and hence playing for the town would mean that all townies have the same interests. So your use of the singular pronoun remains suspicious, IMO.

[Omtose]

Just did a quick reread. So we are all reasonably confident that Meanas is town behaving badly right? So then why is he still getting votes?
I think that there would have been no discussion if he hadn't been openly playing to be recruited. While Ment and Liz did not come out and say their final ruling, based on Meanas's comments it sounded like he got his wrist slapped and was told to play for his team.

I need to do some more reading while I take a look at the newer cases.

[Emurlahn]

Sheltatha Lore, on 05 June 2012 - 04:12 AM, said:

Now that about half the thread has said "time for bed", I'm caught up.

Remove vote

Early shennanigans aside.

The only thing that stands out to me as possibly solid information is that Atrahal is not Poison Ivy, since he ridiculed the count in the message right away. Other than that, I haven't a clue. I'm reluctant to trust any sort of meta regarding when messages come out and who was on at the time - too many variables and possibilities for gross error.


As for Batman/BM/Bowel movement, I think he's priority one. Think about it, we get him ONCE, unless he's a goddam faceless man* we would now know who he is and we can keep killing the bastard at our whim.

I can see some interesting scenarios where we find batman that will really heat the faction game up - you could have members of cults who have lost members (thus believing they can't reach plurality) refusing to vote for him etc.,


*fearmonger!!!

edited to add the footnote

I read it that once the BM chooses a successor another person takes over that role and he himself goes into SH. So if you were BM and you picked me to be your successor you would die and I take over your role.

[Atrahal]

Hmm, I read it that BM nominates a successor, who's only informed of their change in role if BM kicks the bucket.

[Emurlahn]

Telas, on 05 June 2012 - 11:07 AM, said:

Now, a lot of people have warned against taking the Joker's message regarding Osseric seriously. snip

It is day one. What better way to validate the broadcasts than test one this early? I only showed interest in Osseric for two reasons. One he was mentioned in the broadcast and two at the time he was in amongst the six people that had six to eight posts between them. Below them were two posts and above them was nineteen posts. It was a select bunch of people

This is because I figure that the people who would be most interested in finding out who Osseric is are the cult recruiters and Batman. snip

I disagree. If Osseric is BM or a CL then that is in towns best interest to get rid of him. If other recruiters think he is BM and BM thinks he is a recruiter then it is total WIN for town if we lynch him. IF he is town then that is WCS for us but no skin off anyone else.

So there are three main suspects: Rashan, Emurlahn, and Anomandaris. Rashan first:

Quote

Snip

[Anomandaris]

Atrahal, on 05 June 2012 - 12:37 PM, said:

Hmm, I read it that BM nominates a successor, who's only informed of their change in role if BM kicks the bucket.

I'd like some clarification on the successor bit, if possible PS.

Just finished my morning catch-up and am chewing on a couple of the new cases.

Telas building a case on anyone who was gunning for Osseric when Joker put him out there is interesting. Personally I was just going off of what little information we had at that time and trying to make a bit of sense from it. I understand that if the Joker was Osseric, he probably wouldn't want to put his name out there like that, drawing attention. I would WIFOM on that all day, but instead I'll just assume that's what happened. Seeing as the CL would have no clue who BM is, and no clue who each other are, Osseric is most likely just a random name with a 4/21 chance of being either a CL or BM. This is the same chance that any name would have assuming a CL threw out a name that was not theres. So, there is not really much evidence that Oss is anything other than a random name.

The menas fiasco I'm pretty sure is just him playing to be recruited and not for the towns best interest. He promises to do a 180 under a bridge (or something like that), so we will see how that turns out. I feel like he is town, and therefore I'm not going to throw a vote on him, its counter-intuitive.

The only other new bit of info is that Driss states that he has personal intentions instead of group intentions. This is something, i guess, but it's highly possible that he just wasn't considering the words thoroughly as he was typing.

I'm really at a loss for who my vote is going to go to, we just need more info. Info that will, more than likely, come from a lynch train on someone who is (hopefully) not a townie. The chances of this happening on day 1 at complete random is 5/22. Not the best chances, but hell...people go to vegas and bet their hard earned cash on worse.

I feel like its possible that both batman and a CL or two or three are hanging back and playing the low-poster-game while we townies nag at each other until one of us swings from the gallows.