I'll respond to Fener's case in piecemeal fashion as he has a lot of points to make (always good to see someone putting some effort into a case, even if it's one on me

):
Fener, on 12 June 2012 - 08:56 AM, said:
Karosis, on 11 June 2012 - 09:36 PM, said:
Actually, I just disagree with what you've said. Just because you put smiley faces in your posts doesn't mean I should be overly polite to you, you know. There's an obvious reason why I'm bringing this up now - because the game is rapidly passing the point where town can win unless we do something drastic. As has been brought up several times over the course of the game, town don't really have a way to hold off the Cults if the game goes on too long. Ideally in my view, people who've picked up guns would be looking to target people they think have a good chance of being either a member of the Penguin or Poison Ivy cults (according to my notes we've killed off one member of each cult, so WCS they've been recruiting successfully every other time and are the same size) or the Batman. When you have two threats to not being able to win the game, it makes sense to try to prevent both equally.
EDIT: X-post with the PI message.
More attempts to find the CLs. Not a good plan at this stage.
My point was to target recruits, not the CLs themselves. I explicitly state later on that I do not want to go after CLs and it was the intent of my statement here, although reading back I see it's not obvious that that is the case.
Fener, on 12 June 2012 - 08:56 AM, said:
I have a crazy theory that only actual Town members can be designated as Bat successors, which is why it takes so long to find one sometimes (last night 12 hours). CLs obviously can't become Batman, but I think that recruits can't become Batman either; otherwise, we could get into a scenario like this one we are in now, say someone's been recruited twice, two CLs left, and they become Batman. Each CL thinks the person is on their side when really all he needs is two nights. That doesn't seem fair to the factions imo. Crazy theory I know...but...maybe...
OK, it's a reasonable theory. And actually, there is a way of gathering some evidence to test its validity - if the CLs tell us whether or not Spite was a recruit of theirs prior to becoming the batman, then that might make it seem more or less likely (we can't rule out that Spite wasn't a recruit of the Joker/Two-Face who didn't revert to town upon death, of course).
Fener, on 12 June 2012 - 08:56 AM, said:
Karosis, on 11 June 2012 - 10:31 PM, said:
Path-Shaper, on 11 June 2012 - 09:25 PM, said:
A good morning message from Poison Ivy.
Quote
Good morning meatbags, life's been pretty boring in my little copse of trees, so I sent Bane out to kill Galain and Emurlahn last night. They have both survived, so take that as you will!

-Liz
I'm loathe to play into the hands of a CL at this point, given that I think the game is getting to the stage where our interests diverge. I mean, what kind of mechanic is "sending out Bane", anyway? She said before that Rashan was Bane, IIRC. So how does PI get Rashan to kill who she wants to kill? Unless there's some mechanic going on here that I'm not privy to, this seems unlikely and I'm inclined to distrust it. But then again, I didn't believe Eloth when he said that CLs had a lynch BP either...
On the other hand, I do like the idea behind going after a known recruit. Seems like exactly where a Batman would want to be. Assuming he could get away with it, it might allow him to use that extra knowledge to scalp a CL. Plus, it fits nicely into the tactical paradigm I was suggesting earlier in which we look for people who are either Cult players or the Batman. My initial reaction was that Telas was a more likely pick than Rashan (just because of the visibility standpoint), but I suspect that's just because we've been squabbling. Will try to get in a read through in tomorrow to make my decision a bit more informed.
If I'm right, he just became Batman and is laying out some misinformation to keep the lynch pool wider. At the same time he says he "loathes to play into the hands of a CL". While this already contradicts what he's saying about lynching a recruit, it's also a statement Batman would make.
That's not what "loathe to play into the hands of a CL" means. I don't want to end up doing a CLs bidding. How is trying to lynch a recruit doing a CL's bidding? There is no contradiction here.
Fener, on 12 June 2012 - 08:56 AM, said:
If Karosis is telling the the truth, which ever CLs targeted him know ALL the other CLs. From the OP:
Recruiter may recruit one person per night if two+ recruiters targe the same person, the recruit actions fail, and each recruiter is told who all of the others are.
So if Karosis was telling the truth, there was a lot more information off-thread than we realized. It also means that he might NOT be recruit target for at least awhile, assuming that no one would want to make that mistake twice. But it also means someone could have scooped him up later for that reason (WIFOMMMMMMMM) and that means he can't be Batman, according to my town-Batman theory.
I don't quite know what Fener is trying to say here. I'm probably a recruit and therefore not the Batman? Wouldn't that invalidate his case if true?
Fener, on 12 June 2012 - 08:56 AM, said:
Karosis, on 11 June 2012 - 06:48 PM, said:
Something else we're going to have to start thinking about - by my count the WCS is that town will no longer have plurality after night ends today (in fact, it's possible if we got unlucky with the alignments of Spite and whoever Batman is now that we're already at that point). At some point we're going to have to start addressing that issue. Thought I'd put this out there before night ends because it means we need to keep an eye out for possibly recruited players (also, if a player gets recruited tonight then they can't be Batman, which might be useful).
What does everyone else think about this? I'd like to get some reactions please - that way we can gauge them against people's philosophies on the subject after night ends.
How does he have this information? Do we know that recruitment comes before Bat Succession? Actually, seeing as the thread is locked when Batman is lynched, and night does not begin until his successor is chosen, this seems deliberately contrary to what is actually true but seems like he revealed that he has too much knowledge now.
I get this information from basic logic. The Batman can't be recruited. Night started after the new Batman was chosen. So anyone who was recruited during the night cannot be Batman. Very straightforward.
Fener, on 12 June 2012 - 08:56 AM, said:
Much earlier in the game he says:
Karosis, on 08 June 2012 - 12:44 AM, said:
Much as I hate the melodramatics, I happen to think Eloth is very much correct in her sentiments. We've got plurality, we should be hunting the bat for all it's worth. I've made my feelings on this clear in my last few posts, the benefits from lynching Eloth for town are slim in comparison to the benefits for Batman, especially since we've already done half his job for him!
EDIT: points->posts
So this matches up with what he said much earlier. He wants to lynch Batman, supposedly. But the problem is that I think if my town-to-Bat theory is true, this is a good play for Batman, and why it the game mechanics prevent utter chaos - the new Batmen can never have had confirmed knowledge of a CL, and so they are totally town-driven until they become Batman, at which point they alternate between subtly suggesting CLs reveal and saying HE wants to vote for BM.
Key phrase in that quote: "We've got plurality". At the time we did, but now we might not, so our behaviour has to change accordingly. I am not at all advocating CL reveals, I think that would be a bad move. But chopping down the size of the cults is going to be necessary, and after crunching the numbers I determined that we're probably going to have to start now to stand a chance of being successful.