Hmm, OK, so from this I think we can glean that Osseric is not the Batman. Let's take a look at some other people, shall we?
Behaviour I would have expected from the Batman thus far:
- Trying to direct the thread to lynch cult (might be willing to be subtle about it though).
- Would not have blocked the lynch train of Eloth on the first day.
- Probably in favour of trying to lynch Eloth yesterday (since he would have been looking to continue on with Osseric the following day).
Here are the lynch trains from the first two days:
Day 1: (Karosis, Emurlahn, Anomandaris, Galain, Rashan, Liosan, Omtose, Korbas, Ampelas, Fener, Telas)
Day 2: (Omtose, Tulas Shorn, Osseric, Karosis, Emurlahn, Anomandaris, Ampelas, Fener, Korbas, Anthras, Rashan)
One player who I remember fitting those characteristics is Fener. He apologetically limped onto the train on Day 1:
Fener, on 05 June 2012 - 07:42 PM, said:
20 minutes left. I don't see this swinging around to anyone else, and honestly, not sure if that would be wise anyway. Even if the case on Ano or Amp is decent, and I myself prefer lynching Meanas over Eloth, we've fucked ourselves with time constraints.
Remove Vote
Vote Eloth
I'm sure Batman would prefer the lynch here if he could help it. And since the accepted course of action in these situations is to try and get the lynch, it is unlikely that Batman would hold out like Atrahal did, IMO. But both Fener and Telas limped on in the last minutes, which felt more suspicious to me.
He had a bit of a flip out when Eloth suggested they focus solely on Batman, which reads as pretty put on to me. There was little point in getting angry at Eloth at that stage, but he did it anyway.
Fener, on 06 June 2012 - 05:44 PM, said:
Eloth, on 06 June 2012 - 05:29 PM, said:
Batman is going to kill me anyway, you guys can't kill me unless aided by Batman or by the other CL. I already told you that. The fact is you don't believe me, but it is for me about 87% true and the 13% hesitation is only because I don't know what town roles Ment put in.
I don't want you fuckers to win. If I can't win, then I hope another Super Villain wins. I threw The Joker out for vengeance, but with him and me gone, we will make a nice speedbump as well as making the game very exciting to watch from SH. For PI or The Penguin to win, the Batman needs to die 4 times, and I think the best way to take him out, is lynching. Which means that I don't want lynches wasted on myself or Ampelas. Leave us to the Batman. Make him work for his victory while you work towards yours.
He can off two of the super villains who are outed now. That should give town more days to work with. Your own contribution to killing us is neglible and you're on a tight clock schedule to lynch BM 4 times while you have plurality.
As a result, it is for all involved best if you lynch Batman and focus on that. He will kill us. Don't worry about that.
No, it is not "best for all involved" to lynch Batman only. If town sits around with dicks in hand talking and speculating about who Batman is and then can't agree and DAY TIMES OUT WITHOUT A LYNCH AGAIN (GOD HELP ME), town will lose. It will only benefit the CLs, who can recruit from a clueless, meandering pool of townies. Do both town and CLs need to kill Batman? Yes. Does it make a difference WHEN he dies? It certainly does. I want Batman to die when town has plurality, not when you and the other CLs have divided down amongst yourselves.
So don't tell me what to worry about. Condescension doesn't become you, Two-Face.
Fener, on 06 June 2012 - 05:46 PM, said:
Korbas, on 06 June 2012 - 05:41 PM, said:
Tulas Shorn, on 06 June 2012 - 05:32 PM, said:
Fener, on 06 June 2012 - 05:04 PM, said:
Oh yes, my last comment - as town, our only power is the lynch. Let's fucking use it. We cannot rely on BATMAN, who is NOT A TOWN MEMBER, to help us.
this is a good point
No it isn't.
Care to clarify? Regardless of whether town and Batman have similar interests at some point, Batman is never looking to help town as a faction. You don't agree with this?
I tend to disagree with this sentiment. I feel like Batman is likely to follow his interests until the point where his actions might cause a different faction to win instead of him. And if they coincide with town, then Yay! The reason I was concerned about leaving Eloth around yesterday is that when everyone knows who the target of an NK is going to be, it has a habit of being defended against, particularly in a high TMDI game with a lot of roles. I think the Batman certainly would have tried to take out a cult leader last night if he could have done.
Why have I included it? The way the statement if phrased piqued my interest a bit - "Batman is never looking to help" sounds like someone forcing themselves to use the third person rather than talking about themselves. And of course, I'm not sure that it's healthy to think that the Batman won't be trying to fulfill his VCs (though I say this with the benefit of hindsight, which makes it clear that going after the CLs ourselves will be a fruitless task).
Here's his vote on Day 2:
Fener, on 06 June 2012 - 05:01 PM, said:
Rashan, on 06 June 2012 - 04:51 PM, said:
Korbas, on 06 June 2012 - 04:47 PM, said:
Rashan, on 06 June 2012 - 04:40 PM, said:
Korbas, on 06 June 2012 - 04:39 PM, said:
My point was that Meanas is EITHER a recruit or a liar, which makes him a bad guy (and I guessed the bat).
Why can't he be telling the truth?
Then he's a recruit, who is roled. So it was a win/win lynch. To me atleast, it doesn't seem people share this.
I definitely agree that Eloth doesn't have much protection. But why would we lynch someone who batman is going to take out anyway? Waste of a lynch, imo.
We don't know what happens to a Cult once the CL is dead though. If Meanas is a townie that was recruited, there is a chance that he may end up going back to town if we manage to lynch/kill off his CL, so wouldn't it make sense to leave a townie alone?
I agree with this because we don't know exactly what happens to recruits when their leader dies. We have a find on Eloth, we have him owning the find, and we have him expanding his powers and abilities considerably as time goes on (good post whoever made that case). There is no way that the cult leaders have LPs. That would break the game and make it very difficult for town to do anything, as we currently have a 1/21 chance of lynching Batman and a 4/21 chance of lynching a CL. Those are not good odds for town if CLs can't be lynched. I think Eloth is lying to save his own skin and dammit, we should have lynched him last night for sure. Meanas says that he is roled but we don't know what kind of role he has, and depending on what we learn from Eloth's lynch, we can always lynch Meanas the next day if we really want to.
But I do not think it serves our purposes today to lynch a recruit who revealed when we have CLs out in the open that are going to cut town to shreds during recruitment tonight. There is WAY more information out there now than there was on Day 1. Many targets have been eliminated and so the CLs are going to be more tightly focused on who they choose. I say eliminating one of them is the best possible thing town can do right now.
As for the "Let the Batman do his work" argument, who's to say Batman will go after Eloth at all? Or if Eloth is even half telling the truth about how hard he is to kill, why should we assume that Batman will succeed in killing him? As town we should focus on not only maintaining plurality by not being recruited, but by killing Batman while we have plurality. We don't have a good consensus or enough info on the Bat to lynch him, so we lynch Eloth. Lynching a recruit makes no sense at all.
Vote Eloth
I don't really have much to say about this - I feel like his arguments are decent with the exception of the stuff about the Batman not looking to pursue Eloth. They run similar to what I was thinking at the time, anyway. But this is the sort of position I would expect that Batman to take.
The main thrust of this is that I didn't really like his limping on on Day 1. I've tried to find a few bits and pieces that I think indicate further cause for suspicion. Unfortunately I don't have time to elaborate further at the minute. But I will garnish this case with a vote.
Vote Fener
If you disagree with this case in particular, it would be good to know your thoughts about my musings about Batman's behaviour. I'm sure there are several other players that fit the same criteria, perhaps you could look into them as well? There were good reasons to be suspicious of Telas after Day 1 that have fallen by the wayside a bit, for example. As I mentioned above, he was in a similar position to Fener at the end of that first day. Might be worth an examination...
Must dash, will be back later with more.
Help
How much of it is truth - well, we won't know until something happens to confirm it, but at least it's things to keep in mind with everything else. I don't think Osseric would be anti finding Batman though, so in that sense he has a reason to work with town, cult, and all the rest of the ne'er do wells.
).
