[Gamelon]

Oh, did someone remove?

[Atrahal]

No, we just got the vote count wrong.

[Mockra]

Hey all, back and around now. Will go have a check up on whats gone on, about half an hour till lynch?

[Sorrit]

Ok I am here and getting caught up. From what I see so far. It looks like a Karosis lynch. Although most of the people on think that he is town, and his last several post seem very townish to me. It also looks like we have just under 2 hours remaining

[Karosis]

Barghast, on 15 March 2012 - 12:00 AM, said:

Karosis, on 14 March 2012 - 11:48 PM, said:

OK, well I'll lay all my cards on the table.

I'm an RI, and my speciality is Poetry. I have a theory about how the game is set up that I think will be informative for you guys to know about (whether or not you choose to pay any attention is up to you). My idea was that there are only a small number of these specialities, and that the cults can only recruit people from one of those specialities. Whenever someone is running a cult game, a key question is "How do I nerf the cult?" because getting one recruit per night is incredibly overpowered. Standard ways of doing this include reducing the cult to a recruit every other night, or adding players that if recruited kill the recruiter, that sort of thing. But this is actually quite a neat way of doing it. Say you have some poets and some calligraphers, and a cult dedicated to recruiting each (perhaps through classes in that discipline, if we're trying to keep in line with the setting). This set up naturally splits the game into two recruiting pools, and each cult has a ~50% chance of a successful recruit. It seems like a nice way of doing it.

Of course, I might be completely off base, but since I'm probably not going to get another chance I thought I'd throw it out there.




Now, I'll go and take a look and see if anyone hopping on my train looks suspicious. Might be worth pointing them out...

While your suggestion seems to have merit on the first glance, I am inclined to disagree.

Despite everything we have heard about "the cult always wins", it is patently not true.

In fact, from my considerable experience in these games on intrigue, the cult is, as a general rule, exteremely weak and fragile towards early game. The only way the above-mentioned maxim can be said to hold true is when the traitors are given a chance to gather significant numbers (4 or more usually suffices)

However, up until that point, the conspirators are weak and extremely vulnerable. Given there are at least 3 specializations talked of already, giving a recruiter a 66%+2 chance of failure with early recruits strikes me as incredibly under-powered.

Critical mass of a cult is usually about 3 or more. But the point is that once a cult gets that large, it is very difficult to stop because as fast as you kill members the leader can recruit more. And in a game with this many players, it is very plausible that cults will be able to amass sizeable followings. Of course, there being more than two disciplines does throw a little bit of a wrench in the theory, but it can still be salvaged provided that there are an even number of them (50/50 split on which pools can be recruited from?). Your point about the conspirators being weak in the early game kind of emphasizes the need to be proactive as innos and start hunting from the word go...I think we've at least tried to do that today, even if the end result isn't going to be a scum lynch.

[Gamelon]

Oh right. Not sure if I should put him on L-1 before I leave then

[Karosis]

Kalse, on 14 March 2012 - 07:05 PM, said:

Atrahal, on 14 March 2012 - 07:02 PM, said:

Don't confuse that with me saying that I consider some of Karosis' play helpful, however. In fact, I would venture that your post refuting his case on you and turning his own play style back on him is the best post of the game so far. Congrats

He made it easy, and the fact that he is so blatently playing all sides, and being so wrecklessly aggressive is what has me worried, hence the vote.

I really, really don't understand how this logic flies - even talkative scum don't choose reckless as a tactic. Scum may be wanting to kill you, but they are not apt to go beserk on thread.

[Omtose]

I'm back and caught up. I will be here for the next hour. if need be I will shift my vote.

I'm not keen on lynching him though.

Really Korvalain? Really? Huge WTF!!!

[Gamelon]

Right, well in that case I must be off. See you later

[Karosis]

Rashan, on 14 March 2012 - 09:09 PM, said:

Atrahal, on 14 March 2012 - 08:14 PM, said:

Olar Ethil, on 14 March 2012 - 08:06 PM, said:

Atrahal, on 14 March 2012 - 07:17 PM, said:

Kalse, on 14 March 2012 - 07:05 PM, said:

Atrahal, on 14 March 2012 - 07:02 PM, said:

Don't confuse that with me saying that I consider some of Karosis' play helpful, however. In fact, I would venture that your post refuting his case on you and turning his own play style back on him is the best post of the game so far. Congrats

He made it easy, and the fact that he is so blatently playing all sides, and being so wrecklessly aggressive is what has me worried, hence the vote.

It's that same blatancy and aggressiveness which makes me think he's an inno. I just think scum would be more careful not to make waves. That's just my opinion.

I don't think because he shouts a lot and throws around his vote that makes him inno, though many players generally think that is the mark of a town player it has been shown in past games that certain players, even when scum or roled, have a hard time not playing in such a manner. Which is why I would not use that as a reason to discount Karosis.

A agree with a lot of the points your post makes Kalse and have had similar misgivings myself, also thinking there could be a possible link between Atrahal and Karosis, though Atrahal here has more explained his reasoning. If Tellan was fake symping Rashan as well it could make sense in the context of him diverting attention away from Karosis and his control of the thread/erratic behaviour.

As I said, that's just my opinion. And yes, scum can play any way they want, just like townies can and do play any way they want. But it would be silly to deny that there is a general trend in our games for those who get scum roles to restrain themselves somewhat. I'm not equating that with posting less than Karosis, but I mean the actual content of posts tends to be more responding to other people's arguments, cases, etc, rather than being the prime movers - especially early on in the game. I repeat, that's just a general trend, doesn't mean it's always the case, but, yeah.

Wrong. There has been a trend in our games that restrained players get scum roles. Time and time again we see that the majority of players simply play the way they feel comfortable. Certain players tend to be loud and control the thread no matter which game or role they are in. And it's no good to count someone out simply for acting erratically. If we continue to do that as we have in the past few games then scum will begin to act that way on purpose because they know the safety of it.

Not sure if that made sense, sorry if it didn't, just woke up from a nap.

Noone is saying count someone out for acting erratically. Just don't hold it against them necessarily. The two are not equivalent, after all.

It is certainly the case that play styles come and go, but I don't think it's ever been good play to go balls to the wall on Day 1 as scum, and I doubt it ever will be - too much risk, not enough reward. Certainly I would never in a million years consider playing like this if I were scum - I am not by nature especially vocal and I would revert to that mode of playing if I had to because I know that's how you coast to at least day 3 without getting heat.

[Barghast]

Gamelon, on 15 March 2012 - 01:06 AM, said:

Right, well in that case I must be off. See you later

well, NOT lynching Karosis now leaves us open for all kinds of WIFOM games in teh next few days--he primed himself for recruitment with that "reveal" of his

[Karosis]

Anyway, I'm going to go to bed. Enjoy the rest of the game guys (and don't even think about not lynching me - I'd be too much of a recruitment risk to be helpful after something like that). Best of luck in catching the scum.

[Atrahal]

Coolsville.

Remove Vote

Vote Karosis

Gee I hope this gets scum

This post has been edited by Atrahal: 15 March 2012 - 01:14 AM

[Atrahal]

For what it's worth, I think that's the most calm, composed, helpful exit by a townie I've seen in a long time.

[Atrahal]

I've changed my opinion on second suspect after Rashan to Tennes.

Because of his "I'm voting Karosis because Silanah is doing it" reasoning. What was that supposed to show?

[Mockra]

So its an hour and a half I think till lynch going from the previous vote update, and its looking like Karosis or no one at this point so I will be voting for Karosis. Guess will wait for a Path Shaper update I think he's at L-1 now.

@Korvalain - I said reread because on the train in before I hit work I had a quick browse of the thread to see if the game had started or not and got through a page and a half or so before getting to work, from where I logged into my main got my alt password, logged in as my alt etc etc.

[Rashan]

Okay, no harm in hammering now, right?

Figure I should ask before doing so.

[Barghast]

Atrahal, on 15 March 2012 - 01:17 AM, said:

I've changed my opinion on second suspect after Rashan to Tennes.

Because of his "I'm voting Karosis because Silanah is doing it" reasoning. What was that supposed to show?

Frankly I found Emu's "welp, guess i'd better get on teh train as 5th vote to make sure we get a train going" vote to be the most scum-jump-tastic thing on this train.

[Atrahal]

Rashan, on 15 March 2012 - 01:28 AM, said:

Okay, no harm in hammering now, right?

Figure I should ask before doing so.

Nope, go ahead.

[Sorrit]

Karosis. It is a shame that you must be lynched as I expect you would have been very helpful if you had remained out of the spot light.



Vote Karosis


Because it has to happen.