[Serc]

It's time for me to go, shall I leave a vote on Karosis or are there going to be enough of you around for the rest of the time?

[Barghast]

Karosis, on 14 March 2012 - 11:48 PM, said:

OK, well I'll lay all my cards on the table.

I'm an RI, and my speciality is Poetry. I have a theory about how the game is set up that I think will be informative for you guys to know about (whether or not you choose to pay any attention is up to you). My idea was that there are only a small number of these specialities, and that the cults can only recruit people from one of those specialities. Whenever someone is running a cult game, a key question is "How do I nerf the cult?" because getting one recruit per night is incredibly overpowered. Standard ways of doing this include reducing the cult to a recruit every other night, or adding players that if recruited kill the recruiter, that sort of thing. But this is actually quite a neat way of doing it. Say you have some poets and some calligraphers, and a cult dedicated to recruiting each (perhaps through classes in that discipline, if we're trying to keep in line with the setting). This set up naturally splits the game into two recruiting pools, and each cult has a ~50% chance of a successful recruit. It seems like a nice way of doing it.

Of course, I might be completely off base, but since I'm probably not going to get another chance I thought I'd throw it out there.




Now, I'll go and take a look and see if anyone hopping on my train looks suspicious. Might be worth pointing them out...

While your suggestion seems to have merit on the first glance, I am inclined to disagree.

Despite everything we have heard about "the cult always wins", it is patently not true.

In fact, from my considerable experience in these games on intrigue, the cult is, as a general rule, exteremely weak and fragile towards early game. The only way the above-mentioned maxim can be said to hold true is when the traitors are given a chance to gather significant numbers (4 or more usually suffices)

However, up until that point, the conspirators are weak and extremely vulnerable. Given there are at least 3 specializations talked of already, giving a recruiter a 66%+2 chance of failure with early recruits strikes me as incredibly under-powered.

[Rashan]

Myself, Atrahal, and Gamelon are all here to vote I believe.

Wait a second... Ruse is playing?

Also, I still think we should lynch Fener

[Barghast]

Tellan, on 14 March 2012 - 11:47 PM, said:

Barghast, on 14 March 2012 - 11:32 PM, said:

Korvalain, on 14 March 2012 - 11:21 PM, said:

Silanah, on 14 March 2012 - 11:13 PM, said:

Rashan, on 14 March 2012 - 11:09 PM, said:

Karosis is the loud outspoken one. Korvalain is the quieter, scummier one. (In my opinion, of course).

I just prefer lynches that are hard to get. Usually means the symps are doing their best to stop it.

^
My opinion as well, which is why I voted Korvalain before Karosis. I'll be voting Korvalain tomorrow unless a better case comes around

Back and caught up.

I can't say that I like the case on Karosis and as I stated all day I think it's in everyone's best interest to go after the quiet ones. But hey? What do I know? Oh that's right I have a history of being right but noone ever listens to me. Case in point. I was only right last game but people still ended up lynching me day 1. If I am only going to get to day 2 of this game why bother. Might as well keep the streak alive and lynch me now.

remove vote

vote korvalain

Suicidal tendencies continue to disgust me...

Also, isn't revealing your identity sort of frowned upon?

Well, if there is a killer, surely he will endevour to keep the tradition alive tonight......

[Barghast]

Rashan, on 15 March 2012 - 12:00 AM, said:

Myself, Atrahal, and Gamelon are all here to vote I believe.

Wait a second... Ruse is playing?

Also, I still think we should lynch Fener

This particular argument has much merit......

[Tellan]

Barghast, on 15 March 2012 - 12:00 AM, said:

Karosis, on 14 March 2012 - 11:48 PM, said:

OK, well I'll lay all my cards on the table.

I'm an RI, and my speciality is Poetry. I have a theory about how the game is set up that I think will be informative for you guys to know about (whether or not you choose to pay any attention is up to you). My idea was that there are only a small number of these specialities, and that the cults can only recruit people from one of those specialities. Whenever someone is running a cult game, a key question is "How do I nerf the cult?" because getting one recruit per night is incredibly overpowered. Standard ways of doing this include reducing the cult to a recruit every other night, or adding players that if recruited kill the recruiter, that sort of thing. But this is actually quite a neat way of doing it. Say you have some poets and some calligraphers, and a cult dedicated to recruiting each (perhaps through classes in that discipline, if we're trying to keep in line with the setting). This set up naturally splits the game into two recruiting pools, and each cult has a ~50% chance of a successful recruit. It seems like a nice way of doing it.

Of course, I might be completely off base, but since I'm probably not going to get another chance I thought I'd throw it out there.




Now, I'll go and take a look and see if anyone hopping on my train looks suspicious. Might be worth pointing them out...

While your suggestion seems to have merit on the first glance, I am inclined to disagree.

Despite everything we have heard about "the cult always wins", it is patently not true.

In fact, from my considerable experience in these games on intrigue, the cult is, as a general rule, exteremely weak and fragile towards early game. The only way the above-mentioned maxim can be said to hold true is when the traitors are given a chance to gather significant numbers (4 or more usually suffices)

However, up until that point, the conspirators are weak and extremely vulnerable. Given there are at least 3 specializations talked of already, giving a recruiter a 66%+2 chance of failure with early recruits strikes me as incredibly under-powered.

I agree with this. Cult tend to lose, if anything, because recruiting has more chance of giving them away than a kill does.

While there is quite often something in the game to slow the cult, it's not a necessity, and such a low chance seems unlikely.

Besides which, PS said it wasn't anything that affected the game.

[Serc]

Karosis, on 14 March 2012 - 11:48 PM, said:

OK, well I'll lay all my cards on the table.

I'm an RI, and my speciality is Poetry. I have a theory about how the game is set up that I think will be informative for you guys to know about (whether or not you choose to pay any attention is up to you). My idea was that there are only a small number of these specialities, and that the cults can only recruit people from one of those specialities. Whenever someone is running a cult game, a key question is "How do I nerf the cult?" because getting one recruit per night is incredibly overpowered. Standard ways of doing this include reducing the cult to a recruit every other night, or adding players that if recruited kill the recruiter, that sort of thing. But this is actually quite a neat way of doing it. Say you have some poets and some calligraphers, and a cult dedicated to recruiting each (perhaps through classes in that discipline, if we're trying to keep in line with the setting). This set up naturally splits the game into two recruiting pools, and each cult has a ~50% chance of a successful recruit. It seems like a nice way of doing it.

Of course, I might be completely off base, but since I'm probably not going to get another chance I thought I'd throw it out there.




Now, I'll go and take a look and see if anyone hopping on my train looks suspicious. Might be worth pointing them out...

What led you to this conclusion/theory?



I'm gone, until tomorrow

[Atrahal]

Haha! Apparently there's a tribute to Malazan in Mass Effect 3!

[Okaros]

The idea that specialities have an effect on the recruiting is interesting, especially if there is more than one cult. Although with PS being so devious and secretive is making me wonder a lot about the set up of this game.

Korvalain's meltdown has me going WTF?

I'm also finding it strange that Karosis has done nothing to argue against his lynch. Although that could just be because he thinks his lynch is inevitable.

At the end of the day, the end of the day/night is going to give us the most information.

[Rashan]

Atrahal, on 15 March 2012 - 12:13 AM, said:

Haha! Apparently there's a tribute to Malazan in Mass Effect 3!

Really!? Linky

[Atrahal]

Rashan, on 15 March 2012 - 12:16 AM, said:

Atrahal, on 15 March 2012 - 12:13 AM, said:

Haha! Apparently there's a tribute to Malazan in Mass Effect 3!

Really!? Linky

Someone posted about it on the Games forum. Apparently you can get a war asset called the 103rd Marine Division - nicknamed the Bridgeburners

[Barghast]

Rashan, on 15 March 2012 - 12:16 AM, said:

Atrahal, on 15 March 2012 - 12:13 AM, said:

Haha! Apparently there's a tribute to Malazan in Mass Effect 3!

Really!? Linky

Seconded, if not spoilerful. I'm yet to play any ME games.

[Karosis]

Kalse, on 14 March 2012 - 06:42 PM, said:

<case snip>


In the first underline, he is once again telling people how to play the game. It seems to him there is only 1 way, his way. In the second underline, he gives us insight to his thought process. How can you be attached to a case that isn't a case. His case was an analyzation of RP. When I defended,he said I got defensive. (even though, he had previously stated that if you don't defend, you have something to hide). AND YET, he has no problem switching his vote to uphold his high standards of mafia play. In the third underline, he seems to take the moral high road as if other people's play style is an affront to him personally. He comes across as pompous, know-it-all, and is trying to tell people how to play the game. He seems to be trying to run the game and, talk out of both sides of his mouth, and says whatever is convenient at the time to make people see things his way. At worst he is a townie that will do us no favors and only look at things from his side, and if recruited, dominate the thread with his views and opinions, at best he is a recruiter, trying to run the show. Either way, he seems like a fine lynch to me.

vote Karosis

More thoughts on other players are forthcoming.

I think there's some reading comprehension fail here. I have never accused someone as being scummy because they haven't defended themselves. I have accused people of being scummy when they have defended themselves more than I thought was appropriate. I will admit to acting like a pompous arse though - it's how I get people to come out of their shells and start talking . But I would advise you to remember that someone being annoying is not the same as someone being scummy.

Serc, on 14 March 2012 - 10:44 PM, said:

Silanah, on 14 March 2012 - 10:33 PM, said:

Only 2.5 hours left in Day 1 and still no lynch? Surprising... Normally we get lynches easily on Day 1...
OK. A Korvalain lynch seems unlikely, a Karosis lynch seems likely with about half the votes needed already on him. I see no other option for a lynch that we can pull together in 2.5 hours so, sorry Karosis...
Vote Karosis

@thread - sorry for my lack of participation, RL requirements are kicking me in the nuts


@Sil - I think maybe everybody is tired of the 1st Day failures and are looking for something substantial to go on. This is the biggest number of different people being voted I can remember in a while on Day 1.

This is the best showing I've seen on Day 1 in a while - people actually posting cases, people actually having things to discuss...makes a nice change from what I remember. Hopefully you guys can carry that over into Day 2 as well.

Anyway, I'm getting distracted. Votes on me were:

D'riss - First vote, happened much earlier than the others. His only reasoning seems to be on the back of vote changing, of which the first two were jokes. Possibly the cause of that fallacy I was talking about earlier.
Okaros - OMGUS vote. No reasoning other than OMGUS (which is bad reasoning, but understandable).
Kalse - OMGUS vote with some dodgy reasoning attached. Seems to have got the idea that you have to build up Day 1 cases past the level they objectively deserve because there's nothing else to go on, but gets annoyed when it is done to him.
Barghast - Claims I will be a distraction. This precipitated the landslide...makes me suspicious.
Emurlahn - Most likely lynch, doesn't have any reasoning. Reprehensible, faintly scummy.
Silanah - Beyond reproach as emperor.
Tennes - Claims I was in his top 3...don't have time to go and check whether he actually listed those three anywhere. Uses Silanah's vote as a reason, which is very flawed.
Olar Ethil - Says maybe Tellan is trying to distract from me, which seems odd since I'm almost certainly trying to draw attention to myself. Feels faintly OMGUS.
Korvalain - Appears very confused, since he was self voting just prior. Doesn't find me to be a good target, but wants a lynch. Reasonable sentiments, he feels cleaner with this than a lot of the other votes (but maybe that's just 'cause he's defending me...would have to do a fuller readthrough to make a good determination about his guilt).

[Karosis]

Okaros, on 15 March 2012 - 12:15 AM, said:

The idea that specialities have an effect on the recruiting is interesting, especially if there is more than one cult. Although with PS being so devious and secretive is making me wonder a lot about the set up of this game.

Korvalain's meltdown has me going WTF?

I'm also finding it strange that Karosis has done nothing to argue against his lynch. Although that could just be because he thinks his lynch is inevitable.

At the end of the day, the end of the day/night is going to give us the most information.

Too many votes on me already, not enough people around to lynch anyone else. Figured my energy would be better spent trying to be useful to the town cause rather than wasting a lot of time trying to argue away every vote (although in that last post I kind of did some of that).


Also, tautology alert! (see underlined)

[Okaros]

Rashan, on 14 March 2012 - 11:03 PM, said:

Train sure is building fast on Karosis. Not sure I like that. Better him than me, though.

I don't like this post. The train is not really building that fast, considering we are getting close to timeout. And the latter part just feels like gloating.

[Rashan]

1. The train built quickly, with 5 hours left to go. Plenty of time. I explained already that the hard lynches seem like a better chance, because of symps.
2. Better him then me? That's gloating? I'd rather play this game, thank you.
3. I already made this exact post.
4. You're challenged, and I no longer like you. Did I like you to begin with? I'm losing track of who I like.

[Karosis]

Okaros, on 15 March 2012 - 12:36 AM, said:

Rashan, on 14 March 2012 - 11:03 PM, said:

Train sure is building fast on Karosis. Not sure I like that. Better him than me, though.

I don't like this post. The train is not really building that fast, considering we are getting close to timeout. And the latter part just feels like gloating.

I much prefer it when you talk like this rather than when you talk about it not being worth doing anything. But it does seem like a peculiar change of tune from what you were saying before it was clear who was going to be lynched. Perhaps the pressure of having to avoid trouble on Day 1 has been lifted and you feel like you can make some waves now without consequence?

[Gamelon]

Is Karosis still at L-1? I'm going to have to go in 15 minutes, I just want to make sure there's someone around to lynch. Karo is looking pretty inno to me

[Rashan]

He's at L-2, right?

[Atrahal]

I'm still here.