[Barghast]

speaking of interesting interactions:

Olar Ethil, on 21 March 2012 - 01:58 AM, said:

Rashan, on 21 March 2012 - 01:39 AM, said:

You have 20 more posts than me... unacceptable. Must find a way to spam more effectively.

You know, we combined have more posts than the bottom 8 players alive right now. How many people are playing anyway? I'm so out of it right now.

*writes a whiney post about post count not equaling content blah blah*

It does seem to be very quiet today, a lot of people only being able to pop in for a while and the like. Still, I can't say a great deal since I've run into a certain amount of distraction the last day.

Atrahal, on 21 March 2012 - 01:48 AM, said:

Also, I just looked over who's still alive, and there's names there that I just keep forgetting are still around. Olar Ethil! Kalse! Okaros!


What this means is that every time I think I'm narrowing down a list of suspects, names I'd entirely forgotten about pop up

...you keep forgetting about me?

That's okay though, I sympathise, I keep forgetting about me.

It's quite possible that both our targets today may be cuted. though possibly not the same cult.

[Gamelon]

Right, so quick post (I'm making dinner and cleaning as well as reading, let no man say I can't multask, but it does slow everything down) , I rather like Korvalain's analysis. At the beginning of it I was wondering what the hell he was doing puting EVERYONE down as scum, but that's a fairly analytical way to do it even if it's a mission to read. It's interesting and telling that both Korv and Kalse both came up with with similar people to each other from two quite different ways of looking at the thread.

So, aside from what's been said, Olar Ethil is quite different from the other two players. Barghast and Okaros have been significant posters. I feel like Okaros hasn't been around much though, but that's possibly a timezone thing, I think someone said upthread that he's one of the higher posters? Whereas Olar Ethil has been quite the non entity through the game. That's what's really setting OE apart from the other two for me, since it really could be any of the three. So, I think

Vote Olar Ethil

[Gamelon]

Barghast, on 23 March 2012 - 06:31 AM, said:

in fact, There has been a lot of talk about lynching Tellan, with the only solid thing materializing off it was that half-train on Day 3.
And I don't recall just why Korvy crossed him off the suspect lis for Atrahal's masters.. Though he WAS early on the Atrahal train, iirc.

hrrm, interesting.

Still, what if he's the other recruter?

and did we ever come to any speculative consensus just how many recruiters were out there?

Barghast, on 23 March 2012 - 06:32 AM, said:

who are you, my anonymous friend?



come talk to me, lest I be forced to keep reading the drivel that is my assignment!

Tis just me

That's definitely a thought to keep in mind for tomorrow, all the more so if OE comes up as scum.

[Barghast]

Gamelon, on 23 March 2012 - 06:36 AM, said:

Right, so quick post (I'm making dinner and cleaning as well as reading, let no man say I can't multask, but it does slow everything down) , I rather like Korvalain's analysis. At the beginning of it I was wondering what the hell he was doing puting EVERYONE down as scum, but that's a fairly analytical way to do it even if it's a mission to read. It's interesting and telling that both Korv and Kalse both came up with with similar people to each other from two quite different ways of looking at the thread.

So, aside from what's been said, Olar Ethil is quite different from the other two players. Barghast and Okaros have been significant posters. I feel like Okaros hasn't been around much though, but that's possibly a timezone thing, I think someone said upthread that he's one of the higher posters? Whereas Olar Ethil has been quite the non entity through the game. That's what's really setting OE apart from the other two for me, since it really could be any of the three. So, I think

Vote Olar Ethil

no comments on Ruse?
hmmm

[Gamelon]

Still reading, darlin'

I thought that the fact that they both came up with the same three names was a pretty strong overlap there

I don't really understand what's going on with Ruse, tantrums aside

[Barghast]

whoa, that's a lot of guests!

@ Game: well, Ruse is in Kalse's list on the same level as me. And Korvy admitted that he shouldn't have struck out Ruse from his list either.

and, tantruls aside, his reaction to the list was weird. I mean, i've found a few posts on day 3, where Tennes ribbed him about day 1 poems, and he did a mini-tantrum, though still good-natured, and yet....



it just seems to be such a shit-weak reason to freak out so much.

much like Omtose's reaction to Liosan's CF--waaaaay OTT.

[Barghast]

reaction to teh list" should read "reaction to the lynch".... mayhaps I should force myself to finish the last 13 pages and go to bed...

[Gamelon]

Barghast, on 23 March 2012 - 06:55 AM, said:

whoa, that's a lot of guests!

@ Game: well, Ruse is in Kalse's list on the same level as me. And Korvy admitted that he shouldn't have struck out Ruse from his list either.

and, tantruls aside, his reaction to the list was weird. I mean, i've found a few posts on day 3, where Tennes ribbed him about day 1 poems, and he did a mini-tantrum, though still good-natured, and yet....



it just seems to be such a shit-weak reason to freak out so much.

much like Omtose's reaction to Liosan's CF--waaaaay OTT.

Hmm, I must have missed the underlined, I thought Korv was fairly confident in removing Ruse.

Why would Ruse freak out that much if there's not much reason to? It's like Korv on day 1 or 2 or whenever it was. I guess it's easy to put it down to the actualy player, rather than the game itself.

Omtose is a worrying player, he comes up a lot and generally seems to escape notice. And then there's Serc, who doesn't really seem to be around at all... But that's for another time. And I don't know why I just connected those two in my head.

[Barghast]

Gamelon, on 23 March 2012 - 07:07 AM, said:

Barghast, on 23 March 2012 - 06:55 AM, said:

whoa, that's a lot of guests!

@ Game: well, Ruse is in Kalse's list on the same level as me. And Korvy admitted that he shouldn't have struck out Ruse from his list either.

and, tantruls aside, his reaction to the list was weird. I mean, i've found a few posts on day 3, where Tennes ribbed him about day 1 poems, and he did a mini-tantrum, though still good-natured, and yet....



it just seems to be such a shit-weak reason to freak out so much.

much like Omtose's reaction to Liosan's CF--waaaaay OTT.

Hmm, I must have missed the underlined, I thought Korv was fairly confident in removing Ruse.

Why would Ruse freak out that much if there's not much reason to? It's like Korv on day 1 or 2 or whenever it was. I guess it's easy to put it down to the actualy player, rather than the game itself.

Omtose is a worrying player, he comes up a lot and generally seems to escape notice. And then there's Serc, who doesn't really seem to be around at all... But that's for another time. And I don't know why I just connected those two in my head.

probably due to sam post count bracket.

godfuckit, why can't I paste post count other than cells anymore?

[Barghast]

more anons arriving, and OE is at L-3.
i probably won't be up b4 the timeout, but i'll leave my vote on Ruse, should people decide to do another presto lynch reversal.

g'night, y'all.

[Tennes]

I have all my notes here, it is more telling that Olar seems to have many people voting for him whereas Kalse has received nothing. I suppose it is a good defence from Kalse to provide another target for people to follow. I'd be more willing to listen to Kalse if he was lynched and came up town because I don't think he will. I will add my vote to Olar to get the lynch if needed but Kalse' case is based off the lynch train yesterday and not the game as a whole... I feel Kalse prepped Atrahal for a potential recruit day one. Some quotes coming through now..

[Tennes]

Atrahal, on 14 March 2012 - 12:20 AM, said:

For the record, when I said I quite like the Karosis case, I meant I quite like the Karosis case ON Kalse, rather than voting for Karosis. I realise this is confusing

So Atrahal on day one finds Kaslse a recruiter possibility

Atrahal, on 14 March 2012 - 02:28 PM, said:

So my suspects at the moment, as well as Rashan (duh), are Omtose, because of his questioning of one of Korvalain's posts which I found strange (and which Tellan also took umbrage over ). It struck me as someone trying too hard to think as a townie and pointing out something as signalling which would only make sense if the person doing it (Korv in this case) was in fact a townie himself. Yeah, I know this is a mega-stretch at the moment but I plead day 1.

My other suspects, according to a mathematical formula for finding scum which I have devised, are Kalse and D'riss. No case, no post analysis, no gut feeling, just pure and simple maths. Who can argue against the logic of mathematics eh?

He again lists his suspects

Kalse, on 14 March 2012 - 06:50 PM, said:

Rashan was pinging my scumdar early, but as of late has really upped his posting, and, to me, comes across more inno than scum. He has had supporters, which is odd, multiple people, in fact, that have somewhat backed him. This is odd and in a normal town/scum game would be cause for a vote, but in a faction game on day 1. I tend to believe that it's more that people are just voicing their opinions on atrahals original case. ( Which, like I said, seemed reasonable to me at the time and is no cause to think atrahal scummy...imo)

Yet Kalse says there is no cause to think Atrahal scummy, he wasn't day one but if Kalse wanted to recruit Atrahal he'd want us to think Atrahal is town.


more to follow...

[Olar Ethil]

I'm not being 'woe is me' or 'helpful townie' I am being townie who is fucked due to time restrictions and not being able to defend themselves but since when I do come up as town your going to all be shocked I thought you might as well get my feeling beforehand.

Also, Gam, non-entity, low poster? I at least try to make the majority of my posts have a certain amount of content but near every game I get called out on being a non-entity, i'm not going to shout and jump up and down just to amuse you people, it's not my style.

Anyway that is me away for the rest of the day.


Remove vote
Vote Ruse

He was not distracting from me, i'm not a hundered percent on it either to be honest but he was one of the other ones that was early on the Omtose train, after Okaros and no one has really given my thoughts there much time, probably since i'm a non-entity and all. His reaction, was strange as well, when there were so many hours in the day and he had little pressure on him.

[Okaros]

Tennes, on 23 March 2012 - 08:26 AM, said:

I have all my notes here, it is more telling that Olar seems to have many people voting for him whereas Kalse has received nothing. I suppose it is a good defence from Kalse to provide another target for people to follow. I'd be more willing to listen to Kalse if he was lynched and came up town because I don't think he will. I will add my vote to Olar to get the lynch if needed but Kalse' case is based off the lynch train yesterday and not the game as a whole... I feel Kalse prepped Atrahal for a potential recruit day one. Some quotes coming through now..

... do you mean if Kalse was lynched you would be more inclined to listen to him? Because if he was lynched you wouldn't be able to

Also, to some extent it makes sense to look at the most recent stuff, because we don't know how often people can be recruited. Although I do agree we could be looking back further to find how players have changed.

[Tennes]

Olar Ethil, on 15 March 2012 - 04:03 PM, said:

Tennes, on 15 March 2012 - 03:32 PM, said:

In a lot of my notes so far Atrahal has been the aggressor, attacking quite a few people. You see this first with Rashan on post number 68. Number 142 he agrees with Karosis about Korvalian and then has a pissing match with tellan. I haven't went further than this in my notes yet but I think Atrahal is more than likely town, I cannot see scum being that "out there". I asked you about him because something seemed off about him but over a re read i'm not sure at all. I am going to have a look through and see what I can find



edit, spelling

I've had a similar feeling in regards to Atrahal, there was a point, especially after his exchanges and agreements with Karosis that I felt suspicious of him but re-reading his posts he doesn't strike me as very scummy, this is quite a gut feeling though. I honestly don't think scum if they were a certain type of player would always keep quiet and be non-confrontational, so it is not even this angle that gives me that feeling. Of course Karosis showed up as inno and so maybe this is effecting my judgement in Atrahals favour since I see to have the two linked in my mind.

Barghasts list of low posters struck me as scummy though. Yes, low posters can be concerning as the game goes on but it is better to have a post with content, discussion and opinions rather than have a high number of posts in which little is being said.

I am still interested in Tellan and Rashan, Rashan was very opposed to the possible symping tellan seemed to be doing for him and Tellan said this was not the case and after this was picked up by a few people became suspicious of Rashan. Tellan said it was less a defence and more an attack against Atrahal and I though yesterday it could be a case of fake symping but the whole thing leaves me unsure. I can't see Tellan taking that long to pick up Rashan's hints and then turning suspicion on him so fast, it is just so clumsy. That is what makes me think that it could be a case of fake symping, I was wrong about it being fake symping on behalf of Karosis but there were few other players getting heat around the time, Fener had a couple of casual votes but there is little to go off there since he has said little and it was mainly based on the history of the avatar so I can't see it having become such a great threat.

So I find Atrahal's behaviour off, find him suspicious, Olar agrees here, IF Olar recruited Atrahal then you'd think he'd cast suspicion elsewhere. The very next post is Kalse'

Kalse, on 15 March 2012 - 04:27 PM, said:

I'm here.

Another thing to remember. We can't analyze these trains as in a normal game. It is certainly not in scum's best interests, especially early on, to vote off town members. This only decreases their number of recruiting possibilities in the recruiting pool. I would venture that, unless the scum is sure they are hitting an opposing recruiter, that it's NOT a good idea to lynch town off. All that does is decrease the number of people that the cults have to fight over.

With that said, I think it's equally likely that there were scum off, as well as on yesterdays train. Unlike a normal game, unless they are relatively sure that they are hitting an opponent, they really is no incentive to get a townie lynched, just for the sake of getting a lynch. ( this would change later in the game as a recruiter gets more recruits and can see the finish line, thus taking recruits away from his opponent) This makes me less suspect of the people that just did a drive by vote yesterday.

He says we cannot analyse the trains as in a normal game yet that is what he is basing his Olar case on. A lynch train. The very next post he votes Liosan

Kalse, on 15 March 2012 - 04:29 PM, said:

Also,

vote liosan

for now. yeah yeah yeah, i'm being a sour puss, but your RP isn't helping us in any way and is incredibly distracting. This vote is subject to change upon Liosan actually becoming useful.

Why not mention Atrahal in either of these posts. I think he recruited Atrahal night one.



More to come....

[Tennes]

connection problems....



@Okaros, I cannot follow a Kalse case when I believe he is a cult leader. If he CF'd as town i'd be willing to listen to what he said and go from there. Too many people are following his case when I believe it is dogshit. (pardon the language)



edit, changed pun to language

This post has been edited by Tennes: 23 March 2012 - 08:51 AM

[Tennes]

Omtose, on 17 March 2012 - 04:28 AM, said:

Well I think Liosan was saved yesterday by Rashan or Atharal.

I'm going to start the discussion with a vote for Liosan.

Not for his annoying RPing, but for the reason that he may actually be a leader(much to the dismay of his followers)

Vote Liosan

So first Omtose

Atrahal, on 17 March 2012 - 10:27 AM, said:

I actually agree with you (for different reasond, obviously). I didn't really expect the lynch to swing away from Liosan. I think some swapped because they saw Silanah had voted for Emur, but other(s) really didn't want to be on the Lio train. It's fairly unusual for a train to change so dramatically.

Vote Liosan

Then Atrahal follows

Kalse, on 19 March 2012 - 05:55 PM, said:

Back, caught up. Pretty lean. My week mon-wed is crazy. I won't be around for deadline as it's 5am my time, and I wont be posting much today. Hopefully something develops here soon, or i'll have to leave my vote with little to go on.

I can't believe no one is attacking how fast that train switched from Lio to Emur. I realize the case wasn't striong at all... but a vote swing of that speed and magnitude usually means something.

I have to go. I'll check in one more time in a few hours. But thats all I got today. I will be dropping my vote then.

Kalse ignores that both of these two have voted or said anything, I perceive this as ignoring/avoiding Atrahal

Kalse, on 20 March 2012 - 05:01 AM, said:

@Silanah I agree with you that Liosan is not a recruit. A recruiter would be stupid to recruit him last night. BUT he is a definite possibility for a leader. He had a train swing wildly from him, as well as his annoying RP posts that can hide anything. At this point, I tend to agree with Atrahal that the low posters are good breeding grounds for recruits... but I think we are more apt to find recruiters in the middling ranks. for that reason

vote Tellan

there seems to be some resistance to his lynch, and he seems to have vanished.


I am gonna do a quick catch one more time and see if anything jumps out. But I only have about 20 minutes before I am out until well after the lynch.

Although he thinks the lynch switch is THE most fishy thing he has seen so far he votes for Tellan. Maybe he knows Lio will come up town. I don't know i'm unsure, but he does agree with Atrahal's posts.

more to come (i know this is the weakest point i've made in my case and expect it to be defended yet it all adds up to why I think Kalse is Atrahal's recruiter)

[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 5.

There are 1 hours 43 minutes remaining.

15 players are left alive:
Barghast, D'riss, Gamelon, Kalse, Korvalain, Mockra, Okaros, Olar Ethil, Omtose, Rashan, Ruse, Serc, Silanah, Tellan, Tennes


8 votes to lynch, 7 to go to night.

4 votes Ruse: Barghast, Rashan, Serc, Olar Ethil
1 vote Kalse: Tennes
5 votes Olar Ethil: Kalse, Korvalain, D'riss, Omtose, Gamelon
1 vote Barghast: Silanah

Players not voting: Mockra, Okaros, Ruse, Tellan

This post has been edited by Path-Shaper: 23 March 2012 - 09:30 AM

[Tennes]

So bear in mind, Kalse voted for Tellan day 3 when it was almost certain Lio was for the chop. I was thinking why would he do this, well maybe to give his recruit a direction. I think the same applies to the next day, look at Kalse' vote and then Atrahals. Atrahal makes sure there are a lot of posts in between their votes but the connection is there.

Kalse, on 20 March 2012 - 09:25 PM, said:

Mockra has been suspicious to me all game.

vote Mockra

I have 0 time today. I am caught up, but only breifly skimmed. I really don't buy a Rashan case as a leader, no one is so certain about a lynch.. and then wrong. Leaders don't put themselves out there like that. I still stand by the reasoning that a leader is going to be in the mid to low posting range.

Anyway, thats really all I have. There has been little in the way of interactions on the thread, so not much analysis to be done. Pity that the game has really bogged down with only 1 NK in 3 nights...for me, thats usually my main source of info, poking and prodding. When no one dies, it's like a never ending day. hard to move on from issues. (See Liosan)

So Kalse votes for Mockra here, does Atrahal follow? In a roundabout way yes, first he votes for who Kalse suggested the day before. (i'll come to that in a second)

Atrahal, on 20 March 2012 - 10:40 PM, said:

Yeah, as I stated previously, I'm willing to lynch any of the middle-order posters. Probably Mockra and Omtose first and foremost as they're the ones who've pinged my radar on previous days, but, seriously, any of the others (Gamelon, Ruse, Serc, Korvalain, Tennes) could equally be a good bet for a cult leader.

Huh, that's about half the players there. Well, narrowing it down, I've seen some posts I agree with from Korv and Tennes. I can't remember a thing Gamelon or Serc have said. Ruse I've mistrusted since the Emurlahn lynch - I personally felt if anyone looked suspicious after that lynch it was him.


As for whether we know if we've lynched a recruit...I thought PS said that he will make it clear? And in the Liosan lynch, the scene made it clear that they were no recruit.

Start of day 4 Atrahal must be feeling smug, he has had a few bickerings here and there, constantly defending himself but he hasn't really been a lynch candidate, at the time of these two posts below he isn't up for the chop.

Atrahal, on 20 March 2012 - 10:56 PM, said:

I also raised an eyebrow at Korvalain's sudden upage in content posts. It was only yesterday that I said that I'd forgotten there was even a Korvalain in this game.

However, the fact that Korv has raised up a few people means there's no specific agenda that can be linked as yet to his sudden exit from passivity.


On the other hand:

I'm now convinced that D'riss has been recruited.

Something in all that Korv posted recently has really not sat well at all with D'riss. Ergo, (at least) one of Tennes, Gamelon and Ruse is a cult leader.

So he is not mentioning his recruiter here, I mean there is no reason to point suspicion to his recruiter at this stage as there are plenty of people to accuse throw suspicion at, he is trying to direct the thread in who to investigate

Atrahal, on 21 March 2012 - 04:51 PM, said:

If you're talking to me, then I refer you to these previous posts of mine, with regards to what I think of Tellan:

Atrahal, on 20 March 2012 - 12:30 AM, said:

Ahem, to be serious for just one post:

I'm going to be pointing a few fingers here, but the ones I like the look of the least on a purely instinctual level are the 5 or so below Silanah in the posting stakes. That's where I'd bet scum would hide. But going on what happened the last day rather than just gut, I'm voting Liosan. Both Serc and Tellan I see merit in voting for, though, the former more than the latter - at least until Tellan actually comes back from his extended absence.

Same here I think we can clear these as his recruiter.

Atrahal, on 20 March 2012 - 02:00 AM, said:

@ D'riss specifically: Why do you say I don't think Rashan is at all scummy? Clearly, I did on day 1, seeing as I pushed a case on him, which no one really got behind with votes despite making encouraging noises. Since then, his play hasn't brought up anything obvious for me to build on, except for perhaps the Tellan thing. I'm a bit hesitant to get behind the fake symping angle, as I don't see why that would happen in a cult game on day 1. But, if on the other hand others thought that maybe Tellan was symping Rashan FOR REAL, then that's something I can get behind

As you can see from these, I'm not convinced by your fake symping case.

But whatever.



I'll do an Omtose.

Remove Vote

Vote Tellan

Because Silanah suspects him.

Or because Kalse voted him late yesterday

Atrahal, on 21 March 2012 - 05:22 PM, said:

Rashan, on 21 March 2012 - 05:19 PM, said:

Seriously, Atrahal makes me want to punt midgets, but he always agrees with me. EVEN WHEN I'M NONSENSICAL. JEEBUS.

Why exactly have I riled you, Rashan?

You're going to love this, though.

Remove Vote

Vote Mockra


Because I only voted Tellan to emphasise a point, and because I was pissed off from Omtose's idiocy. I'm better now

Then he finally gets around to following Kalse' initial vote. There is a bigger link between Kalse and Atrahal than Olar and Atrahal.



Still more to come...

[Tennes]

It looks as though the day is ending. The last post was going to be the Kalse Gamelon vote and Atrahal liking his posts asking him for "more advice". That is how I see it.

If Olar comes back scum then fair play, if he comes back scum but not in Atrahal's cult then I know who i'll be going after tomorrow.