[Werthead]

the broken, on 11 February 2024 - 05:33 PM, said:

That ship sailed in, what, the 70s?

I think there's a massive difference between the 1970s US level of involvement in the Middle East, which was filtered mostly through newspapers and news bulletins and framed as an outgunned and outnumbered Israel facing existential threat in conflicts largely fought military-on-military (particularly in the Yom Kippur War) and eliciting public sympathy (through the Munich crisis), with other issues kept firmly out of the public eye (what Israel was starting to do in the occupied territories), and what people are seeing right now 24/7 via social media.

I think Americans are broadly sympathetic to Israel and see October 7th as a catastrophic terror attack on Israel (and numerous other countries whose citizens just happened to be in certain areas), but much moreso than in the past, there's also real concern over the scale and level of civilian destruction unleashed in response, which eclipses anything else we've seen for well over half a century. Biden's tainted with that. A lot of people don't care, or will reason that a Republican/Trump White House would have even been far more full-throttled in response and support for Israel, but the demographics that do care are the ones that Biden can least afford to lose.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 11 February 2024 - 06:08 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Biden's senility wouldn't be so bad if he just let his advisors do everything, with Biden acting as 'King Relatable and Mildly Entertaining Idiot'. I don't think the US really 'needs' a 'Commander in Chief' in order to decide when to act decisively; his advisors could vote on it. Or if more immediate action is required in a specific domain they could appoint one among them to make the call.

But Biden's Israel policy is one example in which Biden has deviated from his advisors. It would take me some time to find the articles (from a few months ago) but iirc multiple sources reported that the public stance of 'unwavering support for Israel' was coming directly from Biden in defiance of his advisors. Thankfully Biden has backed down a bit since then, though I'm not optimistic about him having learned much of a lesson (not that it's necessarily all so hard to teach an old dog new tricks, but when that dog's brain is clearly rotting away, and the dog is moving like a confused and feeble geriatric zombie... not that Biden should jump through a flaming hoop every morning to prove his virility---not even with the secret service holding fire extinguishers at the ready, and ample padding on every side of the hoop...).

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 11 February 2024 - 07:05 PM

[the broken]

Werthead, on 11 February 2024 - 06:07 PM, said:

the broken, on 11 February 2024 - 05:33 PM, said:

That ship sailed in, what, the 70s?

I think Americans are broadly sympathetic to Israel and see October 7th as a catastrophic terror attack on Israel (and numerous other countries whose citizens just happened to be in certain areas), but much moreso than in the past, there's also real concern over the scale and level of civilian destruction unleashed in response, which eclipses anything else we've seen for well over half a century.

Iraq? Afghanistan?

[Werthead]

the broken, on 11 February 2024 - 07:04 PM, said:

Iraq? Afghanistan?

I meant with regards to Israel, but fair enough, I did say the Middle East.

Americans overwhelmingly supported Afghanistan operations as a retaliation for 9/11, and broadly supported Iraq at the start (back in those days people having at least vague levels of trust in the government even when they were talking fairly blatant BS) and only turned definitively against it once it started dragging on and on and the cost/benefit ratio become obviously negative. There's usually a different calculus involved when it's other people doing the fighting (no American boots on the ground in Gaza), but the sheer scale of the destruction seems to have broken through even to people who normally accept a degree of collateral damage in such events.

[Maark Abbott]

I assume it's a similar response to here. A lot of folk are taking the view that by continuing to support Israel, there is blood on our collective hands as a nation. Given the 'remember WW2' mentality drilled into British kids at school from day dot, it's really disappointing to see only as many people get vocal about our government supporting a genocide in the same vein as one our country was involved in stopping, but if you try pointing that out to folk they tend to get lairy about it.

[HoosierDaddy]

The more I think about it... we should just put a damned age limit on all our elected positions. I think that is something that could actually (maybe, by the teensiest bit) be popular enough among NON-politicians that it would have the popular support for a Constitutional Amendment (getting the other part would be trickier, but hey, its a start). The Constitution takes into consideration that you need to be a certain (different age) for each of the elected positions, so it should likewise protect both the government and the people the opposite way as well.

But that would make too much sense and would need to be grassroots led and VERY well funded to overcome inertia and politicians urge to retain their vise-grip on power.

[Gorefest]

Can't do that, that would be age discrimination. Plus with an ever increasingly (healthily) aging population you would create a rod for your own back.

[HoosierDaddy]

There is already age discrimination in the requirements for the position. This is simply refining the age restrictions to include both a ceiling and a floor, where before now there's been only a floor.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Gorefest, on 12 February 2024 - 04:59 PM, said:

Can't do that, that would be age discrimination. Plus with an ever increasingly (healthily) aging population you would create a rod for your own back.

Would requiring extensive medical evaluations of a candidate's relevant neurological faculties necessarily be disability discrimination? (It's just like Gattaca, oh no! And there's no conceivable way to 'fix' it or discriminate intelligently! OTOH FDR might never have become president if discrimination against the physically disabled (but cognitively capable) had gotten in his way---but obviously it didn't, not even back then:

Quote

despite misimpressions to the contrary, Americans of Roosevelt's day were well-aware of his disability. [...] Roosevelt's struggle to overcome his affliction was an important part of the personal narrative that fueled his political career.

Roosevelt's Polio Wasn't A Secret: He Used It To His 'Advantage' | (wbur.org)

If anything, US voters have tended to discriminate in favor of relatively unintelligent people: George W. Bush, Trump, Biden. Perhaps it makes them more 'relatable'. But senility is a bridge too far. (Biden ran in 2020 on the promise that he would act as a 'bridge'---and not run for a second term. Because he was old. But perhaps he keeps forgetting....)

[Mentalist]

So, if hypothetically speaking, Biden is rendered unable to run sometime in the spring-summer, what would be the Dems' Plan B?

[Cause]

Mentalist, on 13 February 2024 - 11:45 PM, said:

So, if hypothetically speaking, Biden is rendered unable to run sometime in the spring-summer, what would be the Dems' Plan B?

Kamala Harris, which is a ship that’s already sunk. She is seen as a useless vice president and is also too black while also being a women:

The dems problem is they don’t have a backbench. The republicans bench is massive, everyone of them are idiotic pieces of garbage that are one level of disaster or another but Marjorie Taylor Greene, Ron dramatist, gaetz are household names from their stupidity.

The dems could try throw in Gavin news I’m at the last minute (too californian), Pete buttigieg (too gay), Nancy pelosi (too pelosi). Honestly if the DRC isn’t already making potential back up plans this election, they should still be panicking for the next one.

The quality of Americas politicians matches the quality of their voters.

Edit- https://www.washingt...ts-2024-ranked/

This article is a year old but ask yourself who are these people

This post has been edited by Cause: 14 February 2024 - 01:09 AM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Mentalist, on 13 February 2024 - 11:45 PM, said:

So, if hypothetically speaking, Biden is rendered unable to run sometime in the spring-summer, what would be the Dems' Plan B?

The nominating convention is in August. Some pundits have been calling for Biden to drop out at the convention and let the DNC choose somebody new. (Don't we just love defending Democracy?... Oh wait, looks like I was thinking of an op-ed in the New York Times I didn't bother reading because it's by Never Trump former (but not reformed) Republican Ross Douthat:

Quote

should accept the necessity of drama and bloodletting but also condense it all into the format that was originally designed for handling intraparty competition: the Democratic National Convention. [...]

[... Biden should wait] the convention, when he would shock the world by announcing his withdrawal from the race, decline to issue any endorsement, and invite the convention delegates to choose his replacement. [...]

[...] any agony would be much briefer than in a long primary battle between Harris and Gavin Newsom or Gretchen Whitmer. The proximity of the general election would create stronger incentives for Harris or any other disappointed losers to accept a behind-the-scenes proffer and fall in line if the convention battle doesn't go their way. And the format would encourage the party as institution, not the party as mass electorate, to do a party's traditional job and choose the ticket with the most national appeal.


Would Trump and Republicans have a field day attacking Democratic insiders for pulling a fast one on the public? Sure, but if the chosen ticket was more popular and competent seeming, less shadowed by obvious old age, the number of relieved voters would surely outstrip the number of resentful ones.

Opinion | The Question Is Not If Biden Should Step Aside. It's How. - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

lol, that guy still hates Democrats I'll bet. The more agony the merrier! Bloodletting for sweet baby Jesus!

Quote

What happens if Biden withdraws after the convention?

To fill a vacancy on the national ticket, the DNC chair can call a "special meeting" of the full Democratic National Committee, which includes about 500 members. [...]

If a vacancy were to occur close to the November election, however, it could raise constitutional, legal and practical concerns. Among other issues, ballots have to be printed well in advance of the election and may not be able to be changed in time.

[...] If [Biden dropped out / dropped dead] after the convention, [Kamala Harris] would still need to win a majority of votes at the special meeting of the DNC [to be the presidential nominee].

Could Democrats replace Biden as their nominee? (nbcnews.com)

The Big Pothead Gretch seems like the most promising option. Trump will mock her for being 'Big' and it will inspire women to vote. But I'm not sure if she's enough of a household name yet.

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 14 February 2024 - 02:17 AM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

Most Americans (86%) think President Joe Biden is too old to serve another term as president[...]

That figure includes 59% of Americans who think both he and [...] Trump[...] are too old and 27% who think only Biden is too old.

[...] 73% of Democrats think Biden is too old to serve but only 35% of Republicans think Trump is too old to serve. Ninety-one percent of independents think Biden is too old to serve, and 71% say the same about Trump.

Overwhelming majority of Americans think Biden is too old for another term: POLL - ABC News (go.com)

Those numbers aren't going to be good for turnout... wait there's more:

Quote

Officials Keep Admitting Biden's Anger at Israel Isn't Real


[...] US officials have been quietly admitting in the press that Joe Biden fully supports Israel's war — and that talk about the president's supposed anger at massive civilian casualties in Gaza is purely PR to keep the war going.


[...] "Yet, even as Biden has escalated his rhetoric, he is not yet prepared to make significant policy changes, officials said. He and his aides continue to believe his approach of unequivocally supporting Israel is the right one."


[...] explicitly stated [...] that Biden is and has been consciously and deliberately helping Israel carry out what the International Court of Justice has now ruled is plausibly a genocide.


Officials Keep Admitting Biden's Anger at Israel Isn't Real (jacobin.com)

Of course, Trump would almost certainly be even worse (at least provided supporters of Israeli genocide are willing to pay him more than the opposition...). But voters aren't very rational, especially when it comes to turn out. (Voter turnout as a trolley problem....)

Quote

grocery store prices — particularly salient for consumers — rose by 0.4% last month after a lengthy stretch of more muted price gains.

January CPI report shows bumps in the road to lower inflation (axios.com)

Quote

respondents were asked what factors they consider when deciding how the national economy is doing. The price of groceries led the list, and 60 percent of respondents placed it among their top three—more, even, than the share that chose "inflation." [...]

[...] from 1988 to 2016, the "sentiment" of economic-news coverage in mainstream newspapers tracked closely with measures such as inflation, employment, and the stock market. Then, during Donald Trump's presidency, coverage became more negative than the economic fundamentals would have predicted. After Joe Biden took office, the gap widened. [US] Journalists have long focused more on surfacing problems than on highlighting successes[...] but the more recent shift could be explained by the same economic pessimism afflicting many young liberals

Why Americans Trust Feelings About the Economy More Than Facts - The Atlantic

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 14 February 2024 - 10:05 PM

[amphibian]

The too old thing is something that should be dropped because even if a person doesn't think people that old should be running for president, we've got two of them and those are our options. It's a non story.

Biden has somehow been the best president since Johnson and FDR. It's shocking, yet the huge racism + "we want to keep the rich getting richer system in place" are the major reasons why this isn't a shoo in.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

amphibian, on 14 February 2024 - 11:11 PM, said:

The too old thing is something that should be dropped because even if a person doesn't think people that old should be running for president, we've got two of them and those are our options. It's a non story.

Maybe if we had mandatory voting it wouldn't be much of an issue in a Biden v Trump matchup. But the numbers I cited indicate that a large majority of Democrats think Biden is too old to be president, whereas a large majority of Republicans think Trump is not too old. Enthusiasm for the candidate is a major driver of turnout in US elections. It's bad for Biden.

And there's still time for him to drop out (or dead...).

[Tsundoku]

amphibian, on 14 February 2024 - 11:11 PM, said:

Biden has somehow been the best president since Johnson and FDR.

That's a ... big call.

[amphibian]

Tsundoku, on 15 February 2024 - 09:39 AM, said:

amphibian, on 14 February 2024 - 11:11 PM, said:

Biden has somehow been the best president since Johnson and FDR.

That's a ... big call.

It's right though. Economy is roaring along, the train workers got their sick days, huge chunks of student loans face been cancelled, disability stuff is progressing like it hasn't since the ADA came along, good climate change stuff passed, the infrastructure bill is enormous, and more. All coming after the actual worst president in US history in Trump.

There's still shitty stuff like the lack of pressure on Israel, but Biden has outdone Clinton and Obama. Which means he's the best president since Johnson and FDR.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

amphibian, on 15 February 2024 - 12:52 PM, said:

There's still shitty stuff like the lack of pressure on Israel, but Biden has outdone Clinton and Obama. Which means he's the best president since Johnson and FDR.

Quote

[Biden] has a lower approval rating than Donald Trump, George H.W. Bush, Jimmy Carter and Gerald Ford at the same point in their presidencies.

Joe Biden Less Popular Than Last 4 Presidents Who Failed to Win Second Term (newsweek.com)

Quote

Biden faces uphill battle as new poll reveals less support than all recent Presidential incumbents [...] Only 38% of voters believe Biden deserves a second term

Joe Biden has less support than all recent Presidential incumbents: Poll - Hindustan Times

Skip ahead to 7:10:

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 15 February 2024 - 01:17 PM

[Mentalist]

Azath Vitr (D, on 14 February 2024 - 10:05 PM, said:

Quote

Most Americans (86%) think President Joe Biden is too old to serve another term as president[...]

That figure includes 59% of Americans who think both he and [...] Trump[...] are too old and 27% who think only Biden is too old.

[...] 73% of Democrats think Biden is too old to serve but only 35% of Republicans think Trump is too old to serve. Ninety-one percent of independents think Biden is too old to serve, and 71% say the same about Trump.

Overwhelming majority of Americans think Biden is too old for another term: POLL - ABC News (go.com)

Those numbers aren't going to be good for turnout... wait there's more:

Quote

Officials Keep Admitting Biden's Anger at Israel Isn't Real


[...] US officials have been quietly admitting in the press that Joe Biden fully supports Israel's war — and that talk about the president's supposed anger at massive civilian casualties in Gaza is purely PR to keep the war going.


[...] "Yet, even as Biden has escalated his rhetoric, he is not yet prepared to make significant policy changes, officials said. He and his aides continue to believe his approach of unequivocally supporting Israel is the right one."


[...] explicitly stated [...] that Biden is and has been consciously and deliberately helping Israel carry out what the International Court of Justice has now ruled is plausibly a genocide.


Officials Keep Admitting Biden's Anger at Israel Isn't Real (jacobin.com)

Of course, Trump would almost certainly be even worse (at least provided supporters of Israeli genocide are willing to pay him more than the opposition...). But voters aren't very rational, especially when it comes to turn out. (Voter turnout as a trolley problem....)

Quote

grocery store prices — particularly salient for consumers — rose by 0.4% last month after a lengthy stretch of more muted price gains.

January CPI report shows bumps in the road to lower inflation (axios.com)

Quote

respondents were asked what factors they consider when deciding how the national economy is doing. The price of groceries led the list, and 60 percent of respondents placed it among their top three—more, even, than the share that chose "inflation." [...]

[...] from 1988 to 2016, the "sentiment" of economic-news coverage in mainstream newspapers tracked closely with measures such as inflation, employment, and the stock market. Then, during Donald Trump's presidency, coverage became more negative than the economic fundamentals would have predicted. After Joe Biden took office, the gap widened. [US] Journalists have long focused more on surfacing problems than on highlighting successes[...] but the more recent shift could be explained by the same economic pessimism afflicting many young liberals

Why Americans Trust Feelings About the Economy More Than Facts - The Atlantic

People gauge the economy by their own purchasing power, and groceries is something you buy all the time, so obviously it's the most prevalent.

I don't have the stats, but I somehow doubt majority of Americans are investing into stocks enough to care about the stock market as an indicator of the economy's health. If anything, the internet feeds the narrative that the stock market is something for the rich elites that don't really affect the common people.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
It's been a hell of a year for Horseshoe Theory.

Armand Domalewski
@ArmandDoma

Tucker Carlson bragging that Russia is better than America because groceries are cheaper in the poorer country

twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1758307477282509225?cxt=HBwW0say1bXV4eYwAAAA&cn=ZmxleGlibGVfcmVjcw%3D%3D&refsrc=email

#Progress!

& moreshoe theory spirals:

Quote

Fani Willis’ Strange, Furious Testimony May Have Blown Up Her Case Against Trump

[...] In an eleventh-hour twist, Willis herself took the stand to deny allegations that her relationship is improper or unethical. During her combative testimony, the district attorney came across as outraged to the point of disgust, embarking on lengthy tangents to contest each detail of the allegations against her. Willis’ incandescent performance was gripping to witness—captivating in much the same strange way Trump’s appearances often are.

[...] Anyone bringing criminal charges against Trump is bound to face withering scrutiny of their professional and private lives; they must conduct themselves unimpeachably to avoid even a hint of bias or corruption. By failing to disclose her relationship to the court in the first instance, Willis did not live up to that standard. The consequences—for her case, for accountability, for American democracy—are already devastating.

[...] Should McAfee disqualify her, it will be up to Republican Pete Skandalakis[...] to select another prosecutor [...] there are already indications that Skandalakis may allow politics to interfere with his legal duties[...] he could sit on it until it effectively dies.

Fani Willis’ testimony may blow up her prosecution of Trump. (slate.com)