[QuickTidal]

From this Canadian, you call have my hope that Biden wins and you get a Senate majority.

I'll be watching and crossing my fingers for you all for a good outcome over the next few days (or however long it takes).

[Obdigore]

Terez, on 03 November 2020 - 04:24 PM, said:

There's a very good chance it will be clear enough to call tonight and I will be there for it if so. I'm sure there will be ongoing drama either way, though.

If it hinges on PA, and its close in PA (IE the margin is under the amount of mail in ballots), it could be through next week before they count them all. Essentially they don't have the people to run the polls and count mail in ballots, and they can't start counting ballots until the polls officially open. Its the biggest counties in PA, so they lean pretty Dem heavy, but we'll see what happens.

I'm going to play Stardew Valley with my wife all night, probably have a bottle of wine, and try my best not to fucking doomscroll.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

In PA anyone in line to vote at 8 PM will be allowed to vote. So if lines get significantly slower, the results of in-person election day voting might not be in by 8 PM.

Any terrorist attacks on polling places would have probably aimed at the morning. To the extent there's a lingering possibility, they would probably wait for a time when many people are in line. (Or maybe not: fewer people to tackle them?) Rogue poll watchers can be removed for frivolous challenges, though I haven't seen any reports of that. So I'll wait for the lunch break crowd to dissipate and vote between 1:30 and 2 PM. Get ready at 1 PM.

[Cause]

https://edition.cnn....ps#2020-CNN-map

is there a better way to watch the race live?

[Cyphon]

I think Trump is going to win...

[QuickTidal]

Cyphon, on 03 November 2020 - 06:46 PM, said:

I think Trump is going to win...

538 disagrees.

[Cyphon]

I dont mind, and would quite happily be, being wrong. 538 looks very slick, doesn't mean I'm confident in what they say. My echo chamber agrees with 538, which is largely why I think Trump will win. Good luck y'all.

Hope you/we get a landslide Biden win.

[QuickTidal]

Cyphon, on 03 November 2020 - 07:15 PM, said:

I dont mind, and would quite happily be, being wrong. 538 looks very slick, doesn't mean I'm confident in what they say. My echo chamber agrees with 538, which is largely why I think Trump will win. Good luck y'all.

Hope you/we get a landslide Biden win.

From what I understand, they have been right about most of the elections with a small degree of error? Anyways yes, I hope they are right.

I can't imagine what 4 more years of Trump will do.

[Primateus]

QuickTidal, on 03 November 2020 - 06:48 PM, said:

Cyphon, on 03 November 2020 - 06:46 PM, said:

I think Trump is going to win...

538 disagrees.

I also have this gnawing feeling that Trump will somehow win again. But let us hope he does not.

[Macros]

PEople were sure Hilary had it locked up and that was without the GOP in power doing its best to fuck shit up

[Salt-Man Z]

Voted just before lunch. Never had to wait in line to vote before (Minneapolis outer-ring suburb of 50k people) and this year Apple Valley opened even more polling places so it was maybe 5 minutes in and out, and only that long because I always take my time completing my ballot.

My kids will need to pay some attention to the results stuff tonight for school, otherwise I wouldn't bother. It's not like anything is going to actually be decided/conceded until sometime tomorrow anyway.

[Obdigore]

Macros, on 03 November 2020 - 08:10 PM, said:

PEople were sure Hilary had it locked up and that was without the GOP in power doing its best to fuck shit up

So there were a couple things at play in 2016, but even if the same polling error percentages occur as in 2016, Biden still wins MI and WI, and PA is a toss up, but MI and WI should give him the win unless something crazy happens.

This is balanced against the fact that Hillary was a terrible candidate to follow Obama, and they made the weirdest decision ever to ignore MI and WI, and a number of other things. That hasn't happened this year. People are also very fired up, not necessarily for Biden, but against Trump, which they weren't in 2016 because 'lol reality show host how bad can it get?'-itis.

But of course, I'm worried that Mango Mussolini will lose both the EC and Popular Vote and find some way to seize power, as that's the most likely attempted scenario to me.

@538 - they gave trump a 1/4 chance in 2016 and a 1/6 in 2020, both those chances are low, but they can happen. I feel like many people who sat out 2016 understand that is equal to voting for someone they despise, and stories of super high youth turnout is good news as well.

But it's more doomscrolling and wait and see.

PS - remember that on election night, tiny counties with 100 people report first, so it LOOKS like the GOP is running away with it until the places with all the actual people start reporting results. Hopefully this PS can save someone's liver.

[Abyss]

This is like watching a neighbor maybe bail on a really bad relationship, maybe not.


Like watching a relatively healthy person trying to order at Taco Bell.

Like one of those nature documentaries where the baby seal debates trying to swim past the great white sharks.

Like... like... like... oh whatever, America, please don't fuck this up i miss vacationing there.

[Terez]

Obdigore, on 03 November 2020 - 08:21 PM, said:

@538 - they gave trump a 1/4 chance in 2016 and a 1/6 in 2020

30% in 2016, 10% in 2020.

[Mezla PigDog]

Guys I feel ill and I don't even live there!

[Obdigore]

Terez, on 03 November 2020 - 08:44 PM, said:

Obdigore, on 03 November 2020 - 08:21 PM, said:

@538 - they gave trump a 1/4 chance in 2016 and a 1/6 in 2020

30% in 2016, 10% in 2020.

Hmm must have updated in the past week or so, I though all polls were relatively stable.

I'll just leave that there for continuity, but you are correct on the 2020 stats.

[Terez]

Mezla PigDog, on 03 November 2020 - 08:46 PM, said:

Guys I feel ill and I don't even live there!

There's a Canadian guy in my Discord server who had to order emergency cannabis the other day for his election anxiety.

This post has been edited by Terez: 03 November 2020 - 08:48 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

At my polling place, there was what looked like a loosely formed line of teenagers standing outside---no masks, no social distancing. Thankfully they weren't actually in line.

They were supposed to replace the usual elderly poll workers with young people, but they didn't.

Didn't have to wait in line at all. Possibly a bad sign, since my area is almost certainly heavily anti-Trump.

I'd read they would give each voter a disposable kitchen glove to use the voting machines (hand sanitizer and touchscreens apparently don't mix), but they didn't seem to be doing that. (Or perhaps it's just that I was already wearing gloves. Glad I had two layers on, I had been tempted to just wear one layer on the assumption I'd get another disposable glove to put on for the machine. Having to walk back with either bare hands or possible COVID-19 on my fingertips would not have been appealing.)

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Briar King, on 03 November 2020 - 05:50 PM, said:

Gotta take my neighbor to go vote. Wasn't expecting that. Fuck I hope I'm not out all fucking day. I was in chill mode but he gave me a roof in the bad times recently so I definitely owe the fucker lol.

In Pennsylvania if a poll watcher challenges your vote (either your identity or your residence in the area) and the election judge agrees that their evidence is non-trivial you have to find someone else in the voting district to sign an affidavit affirming you live there and are who you say you are. Race, ethnicity, 'appearance', and national origin are not valid grounds for a challenge, but there was no indication of would be valid evidence. (If they overhear you saying, 'I don't live here, ha ha ha, voter fraud is awesome!'...). The first documents I read didn't mention being given any chance to prove your identity / residence to the election judge before needing to find someone to vouch for you---obviously showing your ID with the relevant address on it should hopefully be enough---but eventually I did read that the election judge will try to determine your residence/identity before requiring the affidavit.

[Slow Ben]

This is the longest.....day......ever.