[Terez]

MN called for Bernie.

Most interesting contest still undecided is VT on the GOP side. Kasich might win his first contest!

[Terez]

Good luck with that. I have come around to worry's way of thinking on that.

[Abyss]

Is a Clinton/Sanders Dem ticket even a possibility?

[Terez]

Abyss, on 02 March 2016 - 04:56 AM, said:

Is a Clinton/Sanders Dem ticket even a possibility?

Probably not. Hillary will be looking for a racial diversity hire to shore up her minority support. Julián Castro seems to be the favorite (I have been saying it would be one of the Castro brothers for a long time). She's too stupid to realize she needs help holding onto white voters who were torn between Bernie and Trump (because populism).

[worry]

Terez, on 02 March 2016 - 04:58 AM, said:

Abyss, on 02 March 2016 - 04:56 AM, said:

Is a Clinton/Sanders Dem ticket even a possibility?

Probably not. Hillary will be looking for a racial diversity hire to shore up her minority support. Julián Castro seems to be the favorite (I have been saying it would be one of the Castro brothers for a long time). She's too stupid to realize she needs help holding onto white voters who were torn between Bernie and Trump (because populism).

Coming at this more obliquely, a ticket w/ Sanders or Warren on it would be smart, but those outside the US might be shocked at just how much Clinton (and the Dem Party machine) have not learned since '08. The GOP gets lots of deserved blame for obstructing Obama, and Obama's cabinet choices haven't always been great, but you can bet that the Dem Establishment (as Terez defined it a few posts ago) shared in slowing progress. Just today it comes out Debbie Wasserman Schultz -- DNC chairwoman and very much in the Clinton mold -- is supporting legislation that favors payday loan companies by defanging the federal consumer protection agency Liz Warren helped create a few years back. These are some of the most bottom-feeding predatory businesses around, essentially legal loan sharks, and they've been an upstart industry in terms of buying influence at the federal level. While I can't pretend to understand a lot of the Terez-Studlock back and forth on economics, I suspect these genuine differences between Sanders and the Establishment are what make these purist academic critiques largely cut-nose-to-spite-face diversions.

[Terez]

Zoolanderis Derake, on 02 March 2016 - 05:54 AM, said:

Just today it comes out Debbie Wasserman Schultz -- DNC chairwoman and very much in the Clinton mold -- is supporting legislation that favors payday loan companies by defanging the federal consumer protection agency Liz Warren helped create a few years back.

DWS is headed for an Eric Cantor–style primary challenge from Tim Canova, an anti-corruption progressive.

Zoolanderis Derake, on 02 March 2016 - 05:54 AM, said:

While I can't pretend to understand a lot of the Terez-Studlock back and forth on economics, I suspect these genuine differences between Sanders and the Establishment are what make these purist academic critiques largely cut-nose-to-spite-face diversions.

The battle over the Friedman analysis really is just a diversion. It has nothing to do with whether or not Bernie's policies are feasible or even affordable. It's a debate about whether his policies in the aggregate would produce sustained significant GDP growth, which is really beside the point. Friedman's analysis is independent and not even commissioned in any way by the campaign.

This post has been edited by Terez: 02 March 2016 - 06:02 AM

[worry]

Speaking of Eric Cantor -- and sure to delight BK -- apparently CNN's Dana Bash is reporting that GOP operatives are urging Ben Carson to drop out of the pres race to run against Marco Rubio in the Senate. Absolutely incredible (if true).

Source, another journo on Twitter: https://twitter.com/...905314995462146

[Terez]

Zoolanderis Derake, on 02 March 2016 - 06:19 AM, said:

Speaking of Eric Cantor -- and sure to delight BK -- apparently CNN's Dana Bash is reporting that GOP operatives are urging Ben Carson to drop out of the pres race to run against Marco Rubio in the Senate. Absolutely incredible (if true).

Source, another journo on Twitter: https://twitter.com/...905314995462146

Not as incredible as it seems, since Rubio is not running for reelection in the Senate. It's president or bust for him.

[worry]

Ah, I suppose that's less crazy. Still crazy, but less eating-your-own crazy.

[Terez]

Probably one of the most interesting observations that can be made about this Democratic primary process is that Hillary is losing what she won against Obama and winning what she lost against Obama. Primarily, that means she's winning black voters and high income voters and losing white working class voters. A notable exception is young voters, the one demographic where Bernie consistently does well. Obama also did well with young voters. Of course, his appeal across demographics is what ultimately carried him to the nomination.

It's easy to see that racism and racial identity politics within the Democratic Party has a lot to do with this flip-flop. Black voters were initially loyal to Hillary in 2008, but they eventually came over to Obama for pretty obvious reasons, and they turned out for him in greater numbers than ever before in the general election. This time, Hillary has the black vote, but there's an enthusiasm gap that would probably lead to a major turnout gap in the general. Bernie meanwhile gets the white working class voters who were reluctant to vote for Obama in 2008.

The liberal pundits are pretending like they don't understand this mostly out of self-preservation; they don't want to suggest that Democratic voters are racist. But many do have racial prejudices and these account for the bulk of the voters Hillary is in danger of losing to Trump. This is significant because, if Bernie were to win the nomination, he probably wouldn't lose many black voters that Hillary hasn't already lost to the enthusiasm gap (people who can't be bothered to vote in the primary) because black voters understand the real threat to be the GOP. Democratic turnout is way down from 2008; Republican turnout is way up.

This is an oversimplification, though. For example, I was an early supporter of Obama in 2008, long before the voting started. I supported him enthusiastically in 2008 and 2012. And I've been a Bernie supporter since long before the voting started, despite an initial reservation about his viability. My roommate (also white, middle class) was a Hillary supporter in 2008, and she is a Hillary supporter now. There are probably a lot of white Obama supporters who switched to Hillary; one can see this easily among the political operative types (people who worked for Obama's campaign for example).

[amphibian]

The higher Obama campaign people have stayed out of this nominee battle. Biden would have gotten then if he'd declared though.

I'm not sure they'd join Hillary's campaign if she won - or that she'd take them. She's been super loyal to her people (most of the crew from 2008, and a few from Bill's runs).

Bernie would snap them up fast.

[Terez]

amphibian, on 02 March 2016 - 07:39 AM, said:

The higher Obama campaign people have stayed out of this nominee battle.

Plouffe and Cutter are officially on Team Hillary, and even Axelrod has not "stayed out". Whenever he's on MSNBC, he favors Hillary over Bernie. Rahm was always Team Hillary. Who else could you be thinking of?

[Illuyankas]

The reason you don't want Sanders or Warren as VP is you'd be taking them out of a valuable senate seat and into a largely ceremonial position where they can do a lot less good. Also Diamond Joe Biden VP for life

Also a lot of the problems the Dems have had organisationally can be largely laid at DWS's feet.

[Terez]

I lied: there is one race still up for grabs. Cruz is now leading in Alaska by 239 votes, with 75% reporting. Apparently those 239 votes equal 1.6% at present.

Edit: that lead has widened to 537 votes, or 3%, with 85% reporting.

This post has been edited by Terez: 02 March 2016 - 08:29 AM

[amphibian]

Terez, on 02 March 2016 - 07:44 AM, said:

amphibian, on 02 March 2016 - 07:39 AM, said:

The higher Obama campaign people have stayed out of this nominee battle.

Plouffe and Cutter are officially on Team Hillary, and even Axelrod has not "stayed out". Whenever he's on MSNBC, he favors Hillary over Bernie. Rahm was always Team Hillary. Who else could you be thinking of?

I forgot Plouffe endorsed her and I was thinking of Messina and Beneson (not sure of spelling). Both are on Team Hillary too.

Wow, Obama's higher ups in both campaigns are working mostly for Clinton and the Sanders team is still out hustling them. Something must have changed in politics/people in a significant set to let the Sanders team compete so well against the people who ran probably the two most effective campaigns ever.

[Terez]

Cruz's lead in Alaska down to 444 votes (2.8%) with 90% reporting.

Widened again to 617 votes (2.9%) with 97% reporting.

This post has been edited by Terez: 02 March 2016 - 08:45 AM

[worry]

Illuyankas, on 02 March 2016 - 08:12 AM, said:

The reason you don't want Sanders or Warren as VP is you'd be taking them out of a valuable senate seat and into a largely ceremonial position where they can do a lot less good. Also Diamond Joe Biden VP for life

I don't disagree with their value in those roles, but as a matter of efficacy they are smart populists, which (if I know my political science) have an acid-to-base relationship with dumb populists.

[Terez]

AP finally called Alaska for Cruz. Summary of the evening:

[Terez]

Carson is out!

[Nevyn]

Terez, on 02 March 2016 - 07:25 PM, said:

Carson is out!

Carson is out in a weird pseudo-way I don't really get. Says he has no political path forward, will skip debates, did not suspend campaign. This from a guy who should have dropped weeks ago. wtf.


Really enjoying the Chris Christie facial expression memes today, especially the ones referencing Gob from Arrested Development. You can almost hear 'The Sound of Silence" playing in Christie's head in that picture.