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Nate Silver put Doug Jones winning at 30%. And I think any stats pro type people who've been paying attention have acknowledged polling on this race has been exceptionally erratic. It's essentially a tossup, on the one hand because of the very real voter suppression efforts amph mentioned, and on the other hand because we don't know if there will be a dulling effect on R voters or a surge in D voters (especially younger/college age voters), and both are kinda necessary.
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#6142
QuickTidal 
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Posted 12 December 2017 - 07:57 PM
This sounds like it will be bad either way for the GOP....but I still hope that Jones wins as I can't stomach Moore winning.
"When the last tree has fallen, and the rivers are poisoned, you cannot eat money, oh no." ~Aurora
“Someone will always try to sell you despair, just so they don't feel alone.” ~Ursula Vernon
“Someone will always try to sell you despair, just so they don't feel alone.” ~Ursula Vernon
#6143
Gust Hubb
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Posted 12 December 2017 - 08:00 PM
Agreed. Watching this and Trump's blazen support is killing me. How can people swallow all this and still support Trump or Moore? Just blows my mind
"You don't clean u other peoples messes.... You roll in them like a dog on leftover smoked whitefish torn out f the trash by raccoons after Sunday brunch on a hot day."
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#6144
worry
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Posted 12 December 2017 - 08:44 PM
There's tribalism. But also, deep down, a lot of people believe victims deserve their victimization. Maybe not young children, but teenagers, women, minorities, the poor, the vulnerable. Which is why they've chosen this particular tribe, and these particular champions.
This post has been edited by worry: 12 December 2017 - 08:45 PM
They came with white hands and left with red hands.
#6146
QuickTidal
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Posted 13 December 2017 - 03:40 AM
worry, on 13 December 2017 - 03:28 AM, said:
And so did fivethirtyeight
Goddamn. I kind of can't believe it. A deep red state gets a dem senator!
And at more than 0.5 difference, Moore can't call for a recount, right?
"When the last tree has fallen, and the rivers are poisoned, you cannot eat money, oh no." ~Aurora
“Someone will always try to sell you despair, just so they don't feel alone.” ~Ursula Vernon
“Someone will always try to sell you despair, just so they don't feel alone.” ~Ursula Vernon
#6147
worry
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Posted 13 December 2017 - 03:44 AM
0.5% is the threshold for an automatic recount. Outside of that, Moore would have to petition for and pay for the recount (like Jill Stein did in a few states in 2016).
They came with white hands and left with red hands.
#6148
QuickTidal
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Posted 13 December 2017 - 03:51 AM
worry, on 13 December 2017 - 03:44 AM, said:
0.5% is the threshold for an automatic recount. Outside of that, Moore would have to petition for and pay for the recount (like Jill Stein did in a few states in 2016).
Ah noted.
Yeah, Moore camp refuses to call it. I doubt he'll concede as well.
"When the last tree has fallen, and the rivers are poisoned, you cannot eat money, oh no." ~Aurora
“Someone will always try to sell you despair, just so they don't feel alone.” ~Ursula Vernon
“Someone will always try to sell you despair, just so they don't feel alone.” ~Ursula Vernon
#6151
Tiste Simeon
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Posted 13 December 2017 - 04:26 AM
Man I'm chuffed. Honestly didn't think this would happen. Will Moore ask for a recount? Seems like the spiteful type to do so...
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#6152
QuickTidal
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Posted 13 December 2017 - 04:33 AM
Tiste Simeon, on 13 December 2017 - 04:26 AM, said:
Man I'm chuffed. Honestly didn't think this would happen. Will Moore ask for a recount? Seems like the spiteful type to do so...
Worry says it would cost him...not sure how much.
EDIT: Moore just said he's not conceding, and wants a recount.
Who is surprised?
This post has been edited by QuickTidal: 13 December 2017 - 04:36 AM
"When the last tree has fallen, and the rivers are poisoned, you cannot eat money, oh no." ~Aurora
“Someone will always try to sell you despair, just so they don't feel alone.” ~Ursula Vernon
“Someone will always try to sell you despair, just so they don't feel alone.” ~Ursula Vernon
#6153
Tiste Simeon
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Posted 13 December 2017 - 04:38 AM
Yeah I just saw that on Twitter... What a bellend...
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#6155
Gust Hubb
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Posted 13 December 2017 - 05:17 AM
Recount or not, I still feel like this is a victory, however tainted by how many voted for that scumbag.
"You don't clean u other peoples messes.... You roll in them like a dog on leftover smoked whitefish torn out f the trash by raccoons after Sunday brunch on a hot day."
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#6156
Gust Hubb
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Posted 13 December 2017 - 05:17 AM
And if Moore wants to lose twice in a row, let him.
"You don't clean u other peoples messes.... You roll in them like a dog on leftover smoked whitefish torn out f the trash by raccoons after Sunday brunch on a hot day."
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#6158
LinearPhilosopher
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Posted 13 December 2017 - 07:38 AM
amphibian, on 12 December 2017 - 02:34 PM, said:
Macros, on 12 December 2017 - 02:00 PM, said:
Surely Moore will not get elected
Robot polls have him well in the lead. In person polls have Jones ahead.
A background to this story is that Alabama has enacted several policies that mostly prevent black people from voting due to moving polls very far away from them, closing local motor vehicle offices where they would register, and requiring photo ID to vote.
So even though more people lean left, the GOP has purposefully shrunk the voting pool in order to try and maintain their electoral power.
Why is requiring ID to vote such an issue? Over here you need to bring either a piece of ID or your mail in voter card.
#6159
EmperorMagus
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Posted 13 December 2017 - 07:56 AM
LinearPhilosopher, on 13 December 2017 - 07:38 AM, said:
amphibian, on 12 December 2017 - 02:34 PM, said:
Macros, on 12 December 2017 - 02:00 PM, said:
Surely Moore will not get elected
Robot polls have him well in the lead. In person polls have Jones ahead.
A background to this story is that Alabama has enacted several policies that mostly prevent black people from voting due to moving polls very far away from them, closing local motor vehicle offices where they would register, and requiring photo ID to vote.
So even though more people lean left, the GOP has purposefully shrunk the voting pool in order to try and maintain their electoral power.
Why is requiring ID to vote such an issue? Over here you need to bring either a piece of ID or your mail in voter card.
Because most kinds of ID aren't accepted in these situations and the ones that are accepted are expensive, intentionally difficult to get for certain demographics, and often times subject to arbitrary rules regarding their eligibility.
For example a black man may have to go to a neighboring county, stand in a line for a whole day at the DMV, and pay 80$ for a driver's licence to vote, even though he neither has a car to drive, 80 bucks to pay, or a day to waste.
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#6160
Cause
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Posted 13 December 2017 - 07:59 AM
Now that he has lost what will become of the charges that he had sex with underage kids? Does he face a real threat of prosecution? Has anyone been able to authenticate the charges. Its good that he lost but that should not be the end,
