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The USA Politics Thread

#2281 User is offline   Vengeance 

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Posted 29 January 2016 - 09:57 PM

View PostTerez, on 29 January 2016 - 06:35 PM, said:

View PostHoosierDaddy, on 29 January 2016 - 06:16 PM, said:

This is what really, really scares me.

I posted my numbers above. I'm a little more pro Bernie than Hillary policy wise. But if you look at the stark difference between percentages of Ds and Rs it's marked. I'm terribly afraid that Sanders voters, if they lose the primary, will not vote. They need to be inundated with these percentages. Look at the differences! Vote for your ideals in the primary but also vote in the fucking federal for sanity!

I think there is a small group of Bernie supporters, mostly angry white men, who will actually sit out the general if Hillary gets the nomination. I can understand the temptation, but ultimately, whoever wins the GOP nomination will probably be motivation enough for me to vote against them, not that my vote matters in the general. I live in a solidly blue state, which is a nice change from living in a solidly red state, but doesn't change the importance of my vote in presidential elections one bit.


Assuming that a vote in the primary is something that actually matters. Which it doesn't as long as we have an electoral college, and don't have a federal holiday for voting. ;)
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#2282 User is offline   Terez 

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Posted 29 January 2016 - 10:07 PM

View PostVengeance, on 29 January 2016 - 09:54 PM, said:

View PostTerez, on 29 January 2016 - 09:11 PM, said:

View PostHoosierDaddy, on 29 January 2016 - 09:06 PM, said:

Additionally, it's a stepping stone to the presidency.
Not since 1988.
Technically Gore won the popular vote in 2000.

Technically that's true, but it's been so long since a VP actually became president that hardly anyone thinks of it as being a true stepping stone to the presidency any more, not that it ever really was one. In our whole history, only 14 VPs have gone on to become president, and 8 of those took over after the death of the president. Only 4 sitting VPs have ever been elected president, including HW. Gore would have made it 5. Nixon was the only one to be elected president later (he first lost to JFK), and of course his resignation accounts for the other one of the 14 (Ford, who took over after his resignation).

This post has been edited by Terez: 29 January 2016 - 10:11 PM

The President (2012) said:

Please proceed, Governor.

Chris Christie (2016) said:

There it is.

Elizabeth Warren (2020) said:

And no, I’m not talking about Donald Trump. I’m talking about Mayor Bloomberg.
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#2283 User is offline   worry 

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Posted 29 January 2016 - 11:16 PM

For the record, I took this same site's quiz about 5 months ago and several of the questions are different, so I think it's a fairly "of the moment" gauge. But I don't think anyone's expecting more than a snapshot from it.

My results today:

Bernie: 99%
Hillary: 98%
O'Malley: 84%
Kasich: 43%
Paul: 34%
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#2284 User is offline   Tsundoku 

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Posted 29 January 2016 - 11:36 PM

http://www.isidewith...tial/1745848446
"Fortune favors the bold, though statistics favor the cautious." - Indomitable Courteous (Icy) Fist, The Palace Job - Patrick Weekes

"Well well well ... if it ain't The Invisible C**t." - Billy Butcher, The Boys

"I have strong views about not tempting providence and, as a wise man once said, the difference between luck and a wheelbarrow is, luck doesn’t work if you push it." - Colonel Orhan, Sixteen Ways to Defend a Walled City - KJ Parker
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#2285 User is offline   worry 

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Posted 29 January 2016 - 11:45 PM

Dang, you really got Jeb'd. My condolences.
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#2286 User is offline   Tsundoku 

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Posted 30 January 2016 - 12:03 AM

*shrug* bound to be some crossover somewhere on my political Venn diagram. Glad it was on those subjects and not others though.

Guess you could say I'm mostly liberal, but probably centrist or even a bit conservative on crime/security type stuff. Ah well, I can live with that.

EDIT: siding with Trump on immigration was a bit startling though. I guess when it came to those answers I should have gone with my own "Other" rather than just trying to find the one I disagreed with least. Probably could say the same on a couple of the other subjects, but like most people on polling day I just wanted to get out of there, so made the lazy choice. ;)

This post has been edited by Tsundoku: 30 January 2016 - 12:07 AM

"Fortune favors the bold, though statistics favor the cautious." - Indomitable Courteous (Icy) Fist, The Palace Job - Patrick Weekes

"Well well well ... if it ain't The Invisible C**t." - Billy Butcher, The Boys

"I have strong views about not tempting providence and, as a wise man once said, the difference between luck and a wheelbarrow is, luck doesn’t work if you push it." - Colonel Orhan, Sixteen Ways to Defend a Walled City - KJ Parker
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#2287 User is offline   Terez 

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Posted 30 January 2016 - 12:13 AM

I finally got around to actually taking the quiz. I clicked for more questions whenever there was an opportunity, and added my own stances on probably a dozen questions where I didn't like the options.

http://www.isidewith...tial/1746139788

Bernie 96%
Hillary 87%
O'Malley 76%
Paul 52%
Webb 43%
Huckabee 41%
Christie 34%
Trump 28%
Bush 23%
Kasich 21%
Cruz 20%
Carson 19%
Fiorina 13%
Rubio 13%
Santorum 12%

Pretty big gap between Bernie and Hillary. But then, I knew that already.

The President (2012) said:

Please proceed, Governor.

Chris Christie (2016) said:

There it is.

Elizabeth Warren (2020) said:

And no, I’m not talking about Donald Trump. I’m talking about Mayor Bloomberg.
0

#2288 User is offline   Tsundoku 

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Posted 30 January 2016 - 12:17 AM

Elizabeth Warren:

"There is nobody in this country who got rich on his own. Nobody. ... You moved your goods to market on the roads the rest of us paid for; you hired workers the rest of us paid to educate; you were safe in your factory because of police forces and fire forces that the rest of us paid for. You didn't have to worry that marauding bands would come and seize everything at your factory, and hire someone to protect against this, because of the work the rest of us did. Now look, you built a factory and it turned into something terrific, or a great idea. God bless. Keep a big hunk of it. But part of the underlying social contract is, you take a hunk of that and pay forward for the next kid who comes along."

;)

EDIT: So if I got "Jeb'd", does that mean Terez got "Rand-y"? :p

EDIT2: thinking a little more on my comment about being lazy on polling day ... do you think the whole experience is deliberately made uncomfortable because when we're uncomfortable and just looking to get out of there, we make more hasty decisions, which is what the major parties want? Being hasty means we're more likely to just recall some slogan and be influenced by it than if we just sat down and thought a bit longer, maybe? Of course the parties want us to vote without thinking too much, it's what has kept them in power so long. :p

Furthermore, would you say that this more recent tendency due to the media and technology of wanting instant gratification, are we more or less likely to make a snap decision and vote like robots because we'd rather check our Fakebook? :p

This post has been edited by Tsundoku: 30 January 2016 - 12:27 AM

"Fortune favors the bold, though statistics favor the cautious." - Indomitable Courteous (Icy) Fist, The Palace Job - Patrick Weekes

"Well well well ... if it ain't The Invisible C**t." - Billy Butcher, The Boys

"I have strong views about not tempting providence and, as a wise man once said, the difference between luck and a wheelbarrow is, luck doesn’t work if you push it." - Colonel Orhan, Sixteen Ways to Defend a Walled City - KJ Parker
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#2289 User is offline   Terez 

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Posted 30 January 2016 - 12:25 AM

That quote is from her very first viral video. Hardly anyone had heard of her at that point; she wasn't even running for senate yet, though she was obviously thinking about it. Obama tried to regenerate that stump speech and it turned into "You didn't build that." Ineloquent in comparison, but this is the video that made Elizabeth Warren famous.


The President (2012) said:

Please proceed, Governor.

Chris Christie (2016) said:

There it is.

Elizabeth Warren (2020) said:

And no, I’m not talking about Donald Trump. I’m talking about Mayor Bloomberg.
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#2290 User is offline   Tsundoku 

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Posted 30 January 2016 - 12:36 AM

I was wondering where the extra questions came from ... then I re-read the bottom of each section of the quiz. :p

See, there's an example right there of the lazy voter. ;)
"Fortune favors the bold, though statistics favor the cautious." - Indomitable Courteous (Icy) Fist, The Palace Job - Patrick Weekes

"Well well well ... if it ain't The Invisible C**t." - Billy Butcher, The Boys

"I have strong views about not tempting providence and, as a wise man once said, the difference between luck and a wheelbarrow is, luck doesn’t work if you push it." - Colonel Orhan, Sixteen Ways to Defend a Walled City - KJ Parker
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#2291 User is offline   Terez 

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Posted 30 January 2016 - 12:54 AM

View PostTsundoku, on 30 January 2016 - 12:17 AM, said:

EDIT: So if I got "Jeb'd", does that mean Terez got "Rand-y"? ;)

I wasn't at all surprised that Rand was highest on my list of Republicans. I'm probably best classified as a libertarian socialist. Obviously we don't agree on the socialism bit, but we do have a lot of common ground in the libertarian area.

That's part of why quizzes like this seem useless to me; they never tell me anything that I didn't already know. I can't imagine any but the most low-information voters actually getting something out of it.

The President (2012) said:

Please proceed, Governor.

Chris Christie (2016) said:

There it is.

Elizabeth Warren (2020) said:

And no, I’m not talking about Donald Trump. I’m talking about Mayor Bloomberg.
0

#2292 User is offline   worry 

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Posted 30 January 2016 - 01:05 AM

Their primary purpose isn't personal utility, it's sharing. Web 2.0.
They came with white hands and left with red hands.
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#2293 User is offline   Terez 

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Posted 30 January 2016 - 01:07 AM

Exactly.

The President (2012) said:

Please proceed, Governor.

Chris Christie (2016) said:

There it is.

Elizabeth Warren (2020) said:

And no, I’m not talking about Donald Trump. I’m talking about Mayor Bloomberg.
0

#2294 User is offline   Tsundoku 

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Posted 30 January 2016 - 01:23 AM

Took it again - all questions this time. Thought about my answers a lot more, and wrote a couple of my own answers. I'm still a Left Wing Authoritarian though. I certainly won't be joining any militia groups.

http://www.isidewith...tial/1746723540

Still can't believe I got 54% agreement with The Donald on crime. I must really be a grumpy old bastard, especially on crime and security. ;)

A slight turnaround on a couple of other points too. I guess it shows that you really can make different decisions when you take your time, do a minimum of research (yes I checked out the info help on topics I had no idea about), and think a bit.

Question: how different would our nations/states political makeup be if more/all people took their time, did some research and thought just a little beyond the minimum required to tick or click? Furthermore, who (eg parties, business etc) would lose out if that were the case?

@Terez
When you think about it, most of us are lower rather than higher-information voters. To keep track of everything unless you're a student or professional news-junkie is just exhausting and frankly depressing. Which is why we tend to outsource our info gathering to other sources, which leads to us making the decisions we do. Flawed, but human. It's when you're relying on Fox news primarily instead of a range of sources that you get into trouble. Can a parallel be drawn between those who vote Republican, rednecks, and Fox news watchers? :p

This post has been edited by Tsundoku: 30 January 2016 - 01:27 AM

"Fortune favors the bold, though statistics favor the cautious." - Indomitable Courteous (Icy) Fist, The Palace Job - Patrick Weekes

"Well well well ... if it ain't The Invisible C**t." - Billy Butcher, The Boys

"I have strong views about not tempting providence and, as a wise man once said, the difference between luck and a wheelbarrow is, luck doesn’t work if you push it." - Colonel Orhan, Sixteen Ways to Defend a Walled City - KJ Parker
0

#2295 User is offline   Gnaw 

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Posted 30 January 2016 - 02:42 AM

Bernie 97%
Hillary 90%
O'Malley 76%
Webb 44%
Huckabee 41%
Carson 37%
Paul 36%
Bush 34%
Kasich 31%
Trump 30%
Cruz 27%
Christie 23%
Rubio 19%
Fiorina 18%
Santorum 12%

The biggest surprise for me was Chucklebee being my top GOPer.
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#2296 User is offline   worry 

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Posted 30 January 2016 - 03:06 AM

I forgot he was still in the race.
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#2297 User is offline   worry 

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Posted 30 January 2016 - 04:09 AM

View PostTsundoku, on 30 January 2016 - 01:23 AM, said:


@Terez
When you think about it, most of us are lower rather than higher-information voters. To keep track of everything unless you're a student or professional news-junkie is just exhausting and frankly depressing. Which is why we tend to outsource our info gathering to other sources, which leads to us making the decisions we do. Flawed, but human. It's when you're relying on Fox news primarily instead of a range of sources that you get into trouble. Can a parallel be drawn between those who vote Republican, rednecks, and Fox news watchers? ;)


Not to step in for Terez, but:
I don't know how you define "rednecks" and I often think it's a population that has unfortunately been rhetorically ceded by Democrats to some degree (and to an even greater degree, they believe they have been, because they don't get the rising-tide-lifts-all-boats nature of policy, and white people who get help from the government so often think of themselves as the exception to the rule anyway). When Terez mentions racism as a pivotal issue, and not just a byproduct or low-on-the-list priority of Republican voters, she is not exaggerating one iota.

https://today.yougov...ideology-class/
Spoiler



So there's definitely a major link between party and "redneck" culture, if consider white racism and anti-intellectualism two defining factors. FOX News is definitely a contributor, and as Terez has mentioned, right-wing radio and Breitbart (and ilk) do plenty to stoke this flame even w/o the need of FOX.

Which isn't to say there aren't plenty of low info Dems as well, but they don't have nearly that kind of infrastructure with the huge, constant feedback loop.

Anyway, I'm sure Terez can supply a lot more detail/nuance if she feels like it, but that's the short answer.
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#2298 User is offline   Primateus 

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Posted 30 January 2016 - 10:50 AM



Stephen Colbert is always good for a laugh.
Screw you all, and have a nice day!

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#2299 User is offline   Terez 

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Posted 30 January 2016 - 10:54 AM

View PostDumbledude, on 30 January 2016 - 04:09 AM, said:

I'm sure Terez can supply a lot more detail/nuance if she feels like it, but that's the short answer.


I feel like I say the same things over and over in cycles as this thread goes on, year after year. I should probably hit one of my regular topics to clarify the issue, though.

Southern Democrats, once officially called Dixiecrats (when Strom Thurmond challenged FDR for the Democratic nomination), are still a thing. Barely. That's part of what makes party politics in the US so confusing.

Lincoln was the first Republican president. Obviously, if he were alive today he'd probably identify as a Democrat. During his lifetime, though, the Democratic Party was dominated by the southern Democrats who opposed the emancipation of slaves and seceded from the Union to avoid it which, as we all know, began the Civil War.

After Lincoln's death, the former Confederate states had to be Reconstructed into the Union. This was theoretically about making it safe for freedmen to live free. In practice it was messy, as most things are, and the methods weren't always the best suited to the goal. (Why mention this? Well, because Hillary did, as we discussed a few pages back, and because it's relevant, though Hillary certainly blundered when she equated Southern bitterness over this fact to Jim Crow.)

Obviously, the South never really gave up on their Civil War ideals; they only surrendered because all of their menfolk were dying. There were some who embraced reality and the change that came with it, but most of them remained bitter and ideologically opposed to emancipation. They believed that people in the north would not have coped much better with the situation, and in fact they did not cope well when the Great Migrations of freedmen to northern cities began, so the South very much resented their status as chastened traitors.

Eventually the former Confederate Democrats were able to reassert their power in the party and in Congress, and Reconstruction came to an end without any real infrastructure in place to maintain its goals. And so southern whites reasserted their power over black people still living in the South (which was most of them) and instituted Jim Crow laws along with a healthy dose of domestic terrorism to keep the former slaves in their place as second-class citizens (a generous descriptor). Wage slavery and outright theft were common. More and more former slaves and descendants of slaves trekked north, but even today, there are more African-Americans residing in the former Confederate states than outside of them. The vast majority of those who live outside the South are concentrated in and around the biggest cities.

This Jim Crow reality went on for decades until the Civil Rights revolution of the 50s and 60s, which many living people still remember. My parents, both of whom were raised in Mississippi, were still in school when schools were integrated. Mississippi has the highest black population of any state in the US, so this was a very big deal. We were always kind of the backwater of the Confederacy (though this term fits Louisiana better). We have the lowest population; we're the poorest of the former Confederate states, and even Alabama is a rung or two higher on the ladder in many ways. (They have bigger cities.)

Civil rights reforms were not passed in Congress on party lines. Southern Democrats and Republicans voted against it. Northern Democrats and Republicans voted for it. But two things in particular contributed to the impression that it was Democrats who made it happen: 1) The president, LBJ, was a Democrat, and he was following his Dem predecessor JFK's lead in pushing for civil rights; and 2) more non-Southern Republicans voted against civil rights reforms than non-Southern Democrats, and one of those—Barry Goldwater, who opposed the CRA on libertarian principles—became the first Republican candidate for president to garner significant support in the Deep South. He ran against LBJ in 1964 and lost.

I believe both Ron and Rand Paul have at some point publicly voiced opposition to civil rights reforms (and the CRA specifically) on the same libertarian principles as Goldwater, though most Republicans have long since stopped arguing along those lines.

Goldwater's nomination represented the first attempt by the Republican party to woo Southern voters. They recognized that the South felt betrayed by its own party, and they capitalized on that feeling of betrayal by nominating Goldwater. It worked, but that was only the beginning. It has taken decades for white Southerners to become ideologically pure Republicans. The state legislatures in Mississippi and Alabama and across the Deep South only became Republican-majority within the last 10 years, as some of the last Dixiecrats were ousted. Many local positions are still held by Dixiecrats.

Nixon is often credited for the implementation of the Southern Strategy whereby white southerners' bitter racism was capitalized upon for political gain. What's significant about Nixon's era is that this is when long-standing Republican principles of classical economic liberalism and/or neoliberalism became appealing to poor southern whites. They could identify with Republicans not only because the Democrats had betrayed them, but because the socialist-leaning policies of the Democratic Party which once benefitted them were now benefitting the poorest of the poor: the descendants of slaves who had been systematically denied access to wealth for their hundred-year history as free men and women.

Jimmy Carter won the presidency after Nixon primarily through a coalition of recently-enfranchised black voters in the south and old Southern Democrats whose feelings of loyalty to the Party were stronger than their racism. (That is an oversimplification, but I think it's generally accurate.) But by the time Reagan came around, most southern whites were fully and permanently on board in terms of presidential elections. They were convinced that all social welfare policies and public economic stimulus were simply enabling lazy black people to live off white people's hard-earned money. Reagan did not hesitate to propagate this myth.

This philosophy became popular not only in the former Confederacy, but all across the country where working-class whites were the dominant culture. I live in a solidly blue state now, but I live in a Republican district. If you look at an electoral map of IL by district or county, you might be forgiven for thinking it was a red state, but the blue districts and counties around Chicago are densely populated. It's not just black people in Chicago who vote Democrat, though they definitely do; white people who live in cities are more likely to identify as liberal, too. And even in corn country, white people are more likely to identify as liberal than they are in the South; even in Republican districts like mine, Democrats get votes, and unlike in the South, where almost all Democrats are black, here in corn country they're more likely to be white because there aren't very many black people outside Chicago.

Bill Clinton was elected governor of Arkansas as a Southern Democrat. That's a big reason why Hillary's position record is sketchy when it comes to issues important to black voters. Hillary's background as a Goldwater Girl and some-time Republican staffer probably made it very easy for her to transition into a Southern Democrat as First Lady of Arkansas, and to help Bill transition into a New Democrat whereby these fears among white voters about criminal and dependent black people were assuaged. President Clinton was tough on crime; President Clinton embraced welfare reform; President Clinton was able to woo Wall Street donors. Otherwise he probably would never have been elected president.

So, what is a redneck? The term tends to primarily be associated with the Deep South, particularly the rural South. It's associated with the southern accent, with big trucks and mud-riding and hunting and fishing and football. It's associated with country music, which features many of those things. But country music is popular in many white-dominated areas in the north, too. There was an Air Force guy from NY who was stationed in Biloxi and who frequented my place of employment for some time; I remember being surprised back then (10-15 years ago) that he had always been a fan of country music. Now that I live in rural IL, I understand a little better. The rural, white North is not much different from the South. Not long after I moved up here I saw a big-wheel truck with Confederate flag paraphernalia on it.

Rednecks are everywhere, and the Confederate culture of the South appeals to them no matter where they live. And they vote Republican no matter where they live, assuming they actually vote. They vote Republican for the same reasons: religion and racism. And the rise of Trump makes it clear, if it was not clear before, that racism is the stronger of those two motivations, in general, and probably always has been. Fox has been race-baiting for its entire existence. And God-baiting. And gender-baiting, which is now biting them in the ass with the Trump vs Megyn Kelly battle.

The President (2012) said:

Please proceed, Governor.

Chris Christie (2016) said:

There it is.

Elizabeth Warren (2020) said:

And no, I’m not talking about Donald Trump. I’m talking about Mayor Bloomberg.
4

#2300 User is offline   Terez 

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Posted 30 January 2016 - 10:53 PM

On those complicated caucuses I mentioned earlier...

What is a caucus?

http://www.msnbc.com...us-609825347746

Juggling the caucus math on the Democratic side:

http://www.buzzfeed....math#.lkVO4w1EB

The President (2012) said:

Please proceed, Governor.

Chris Christie (2016) said:

There it is.

Elizabeth Warren (2020) said:

And no, I’m not talking about Donald Trump. I’m talking about Mayor Bloomberg.
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