[amphibian]

No. He has no electability whatsoever. Perot ran at a golden time for insurgent/independent candidates and got an all time high. Trump is a loon with zero grasp of higher political issues and negotiating tactics. He has a minor gift for publicity, but it's nowhere enough to make a sizable organization that can make a dent in Iowa, New Hampshiretor any of the other important primaries.

Now, if Warren Buffet ran for president, we might really have an interesting situation. I think he'd not be a good president, but enough of the country supports his financial acumen to probably vote for him to the degree of 30% of the vote. I think his possible voters would skew Republican, so it'd likely be a very, very close Democratic win in that hypothetical election with someone as middle of the road as Jimmy Carter was.

This post has been edited by amphibian: 17 June 2015 - 04:19 AM

[Gorefest]

 amphibian, on 17 June 2015 - 04:17 AM, said:

Trump is a loon with zero grasp of higher political issues and negotiating tactics.

That never stopped Bush Jr.

[amphibian]

 Gorefest, on 17 June 2015 - 06:22 AM, said:

 amphibian, on 17 June 2015 - 04:17 AM, said:

Trump is a loon with zero grasp of higher political issues and negotiating tactics.

That never stopped Bush Jr.

What GWB had going for him was a very, very good ability to plug himself into high $ donor networks. He really had/has a special ability to come out of the room with them believing he'd really go do work for them. That got him elected 1x (by giving him enough $ to run a near dead heat, then their behind the stage pressure convinced Scalia, Kennedy, Thomas, O'Connor and Rehnquist to give him the election by Supreme Court decision) and then 9/11 got him elected the other time.

Bill Clinton has the ability to walk into any room - any room on this planet - and come out with 80% of the people in it loving him. I've heard stories from people who've had interactions with him (making it second hand) and every single one of them said it's an actual superpower and that they'd have done anything for him for a short while after meeting him. Gobs and gobs of "I'm your best friend and isn't this cool" charisma just being flung everywhere by a guy on complete autopilot most of the time.

Obama has a legit and elite talent for building strong organizations to propel him very quickly to where he wants to go.

Trump has... none of that.

[Gorefest]

He's got a reality TV show though, that should get him a significant percentage of the Fox viewer vote right there. He probably also has a lot of economic credibility to the average layman. And he's got personal funds. Big money seems to get you a long way in US elections.

[Illuyankas]

Trump is a laughing stock. Ron Paul is more likely to get the nomination, and yes I know which Paul I just wrote down.

[Nicodimas]

 Illuyankas, on 17 June 2015 - 12:25 PM, said:

Trump is a laughing stock. Ron Paul is more likely to get the nomination, and yes I know which Paul I just wrote down.

I don't think Trump will appeal to regular folk very much, it would be very easy to paint him in the corner of the Banksters and Elite.

[amphibian]

 Gorefest, on 17 June 2015 - 12:09 PM, said:

He's got a reality TV show though, that should get him a significant percentage of the Fox viewer vote right there. He probably also has a lot of economic credibility to the average layman. And he's got personal funds. Big money seems to get you a long way in US elections.

As a declared presidential candidate, Trump has 30 days to release his personal financial disclosure reports. If he does that (I am 50/50 on whether he will), then we will know how much he is actually worth.

However, you either underestimate how much it takes to run a truly effective presidential campaign in modern times or you overestimate how much money Trump would put into running that campaign. Obama raised $1.072 billion and spent $985.7 million, Romney raised $992.5 million and spent $992 million. Those are far more electable candidates and they basically HAD to spend that much money. Trump would likely have to eclipse that fundraising by a large margin, supplying a huge chunk of it personally, spend it effectively with an organization he doesn't have party connections to slide readily into creating and then actually convince people of his electability.

That's a huge, huge order of things to do, even adding in a lunatic Fox News push. It could happen, but it'd be the biggest transformation in world politics. Something straight out of the movies.

[Gorefest]

And nobody in the US thinks there is something fundamentally broken in a democratic election if those kinds of ludicrous funds are thrown about? You can sort out the national debts of a small nation with that kind of money. That is just silly. Shocking, really, i had no clue it was that outrageous.

[Nevyn]

 amphibian, on 17 June 2015 - 07:28 PM, said:

 Gorefest, on 17 June 2015 - 12:09 PM, said:

He's got a reality TV show though, that should get him a significant percentage of the Fox viewer vote right there. He probably also has a lot of economic credibility to the average layman. And he's got personal funds. Big money seems to get you a long way in US elections.

As a declared presidential candidate, Trump has 30 days to release his personal financial disclosure reports. If he does that (I am 50/50 on whether he will), then we will know how much he is actually worth.

However, you either underestimate how much it takes to run a truly effective presidential campaign in modern times or you overestimate how much money Trump would put into running that campaign. Obama raised $1.072 billion and spent $985.7 million, Romney raised $992.5 million and spent $992 million. Those are far more electable candidates and they basically HAD to spend that much money. Trump would likely have to eclipse that fundraising by a large margin, supplying a huge chunk of it personally, spend it effectively with an organization he doesn't have party connections to slide readily into creating and then actually convince people of his electability.

That's a huge, huge order of things to do, even adding in a lunatic Fox News push. It could happen, but it'd be the biggest transformation in world politics. Something straight out of the movies.

I agree with your conclusion (that Trump has no viable shot, but you make it sound like all the money has to be in your coffers on day 1.

It takes considerably less money to campaign earlier, and if you show viability early that helps you raise money later. He doesn't need 1 billion of his own money. What he needs is to somehow impress enough in early states and early debates that when the republican field narrows he is considered one of 3 or 4 viable options. That will get him enough money for the next stage, and if he starts winning primaries that will get the rest of it for him. His personal wealth would simply be a backstop if his support swooned.

But he is not going anywhere as a candidate because he won't pass that initial viability test. He simply won't get popular enough early enough to ever jump start the campaign.

To be honest, I'm not totally sure he wants to. Feels more like he just wants the publicity and attention that goes with it. He may even be doing it as a stalking horse to help the establishment candidates by making it tougher for lesser known names to gain attention and build a brand.

[worry]

Nobody likes Donald Trump. People hate-watch him because he's an entertainingly pompous blowhard and narcissist, and they like competition and money, but nobody likes him. Regular Apprentice doesn't even exist anymore, just the Celebrity edition. He's got nobody to vote for him except the Patrick Bateman bloc regardless of how much money he can spend.

[amphibian]

Nevyn has a great point about the initial impression being enough to jump start some campaigns.

However, look at the fundraising patterns for the 2008 presidential campaign (the last time the nominees were really uncertain). The good candidates got into the double digit millions fairly quickly (within 1 or 2 quarters of 2007).

https://en.wikipedia...ential_election

There is one quasi-parallel to a Trump-like figure in American state/national politics: Nelson Rockefeller.

The Imperial Nelson was one of the grandsons of John D. Rockefeller - one of the richest industrialists ever on the planet - and he actually had a decent set of skills for learning complex things fairly well and quickly - banking, Spanish language/culture/art, politics etc. Today, he'd probably be a Democrat, but back then he was a liberal Republican and plugged very well into that scene.

He became New York's governor in 1959 and stayed there until 1973 as a very, very powerful governor with huge, far-reaching remakings of political, social, urban and legal landscapes. In 1974, he became a Vice President for Gerald Ford.

However, in the time after 1959, Rockefeller really wanted to be President. He lost the 1960 primary handily to Nixon, who then lost to Kennedy. He was doing extremely well in the 1964 primary run-up, but his divorce, remarriage to a divorcee with 4 kids and subsequent birth of one more kid ruined him in the eyes of conservative Republican voters. He lost the primary bitterly to Goldwater, who ran a terrible campaign vs. Lyndon Johnson. In 1968, he waffled too long and Nixon beat him and Reagan (who would eventually be president) handily.

https://en.wikipedia...tional_politics

These are fascinating stories behind why Nelson never became the #1 Republican despite huge generational wealth, very high popularity (besides the divorce thing) and perhaps the best understanding of large scale politics in the Republican leadership at the time. He was also a dickhead Vice President in the sense that he pushed Ford to do things Ford didn't want to do bc Nelson felt they were better things to do than what Ford was doing. Ford, btw, has a post-presidency rep of being a whistle-clean idiot, but still an average-performing President.

Trump has none of what Rockefeller had or even what Kennedy, the filthy rich grandson of a bootlegger, had. None of the governing experience and none of the policy understandings.

This post has been edited by amphibian: 18 June 2015 - 04:42 AM

[Maark Abbott]

 Briar King, on 18 June 2015 - 01:29 AM, said:

 Gorefest, on 17 June 2015 - 08:13 PM, said:

And nobody in the US thinks there is something fundamentally broken in a democratic election if those kinds of ludicrous funds are thrown about? You can sort out the national debts of a small nation with that kind of money. That is just silly. Shocking, really, i had no clue it was that outrageous.

Just wait it ll get a lot crazier as we get closer. Damn I hate all the poll calls that come to house. Rings constantly.

UK election, my mum had their local Tory councillor Oliver Letwin show up on her doorstep in Stratton one morning. She's NHS. You can imagine what her response to him was.

[worry]

"Wossat? Bloody arse intrupptin my tea on this perfeckly cloudy day, innit! Bangers and mash!" -- direct quote.

[Maark Abbott]

 worry, on 18 June 2015 - 08:44 PM, said:

"Wossat? Bloody arse intrupptin my tea on this perfeckly cloudy day, innit! Bangers and mash!" -- direct quote.

Repirations for the Tea Party. You have 48 hours or it's invasion time, ne'er-do-well.

[Gorefest]

 worry, on 18 June 2015 - 08:44 PM, said:

"Wossat? Bloody arse intrupptin my tea on this perfeckly cloudy day, innit! Bangers and mash!" -- direct quote.

You forgot to add 'ee bah gum".

[Maark Abbott]

 Gorefest, on 19 June 2015 - 11:16 AM, said:

 worry, on 18 June 2015 - 08:44 PM, said:

"Wossat? Bloody arse intrupptin my tea on this perfeckly cloudy day, innit! Bangers and mash!" -- direct quote.

You forgot to add 'ee bah gum".

...My mum is from Hampshire and lives in Dorset.

[Gorefest]

In that case: "Wasson me cock?"

[Gnaw]

 Maark, on 18 June 2015 - 08:48 PM, said:

 worry, on 18 June 2015 - 08:44 PM, said:

"Wossat? Bloody arse intrupptin my tea on this perfeckly cloudy day, innit! Bangers and mash!" -- direct quote.

Repirations for the Tea Party. You have 48 hours or it's invasion time, ne'er-do-well.

It was called Lend-Lease you ungrateful bastards.

[amphibian]

 Briar King, on 24 June 2015 - 05:27 PM, said:

My Governor Bobby Jindal has declared. There was a lot of rumors on Obama's 1st term that he was wanted as VP.

Obama wanted Jindal for VP? No. Not ever.

Maybe you mean McCain was seriously considering him for the 2008 run or that Romney was considering him for 2012.

Jindal is perhaps the worst governor in Louisiana's modern history.

[amphibian]

 Briar King, on 24 June 2015 - 08:06 PM, said:

Yea McCain

He's mostly well liked here

http://fivethirtyeig...-2012-not-2016/

Jindal's approval rating among Louisiana Republicans has fallen 25 points to 54% since 2012. He's slumped badly since then and it's because people are finding out how bad a governor he actually is.