[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Cause, on 02 April 2025 - 06:18 PM, said:

Smartest thing happening is the Senate is apparently going to vote to block Tariffs. It either blocks Tariffs or more likely every republican must endorse them on record. We shall see waht the markets says later.

Quote

Economist: Trump tariffs could send the S&P 500 to 4,450

[...] Berezin gained attention this year for being the lone [US stocks] bear on Wall Street coming into 2025. Further, he correctly called that in 2022 there would be no US recession — despite most on the Street bracing for one.

Berezin doubled down on his recent call that there is a 75% chance of a US recession this year. [...] as consumers pull back amid a more inflationary environment, thanks to a global trade war.

Assuming his economic call holds true, Berezin thinks the S&P 500 (^GSPC) is destined for 4,450 — down about 21% from current levels.

[...] The best places for investors to hide out this year may continue to be gold and consumer staples and soon, bonds.

[...] "I don't think the effect of tariffs is fully priced into markets," Berezin said. "If you look at what's happened to stocks this year, they have gone down, but they've gone down primarily because of the Magnificent 7 stocks. If you look at the other 493 companies, they're basically flat for the year. That's not what you would expect from a market that has priced in a recession."

https://finance.yaho...-140326769.html

Bought a little more gold (IAUM), CAOS, and VRTX (Vertex Pharmaceuticals, one of the only publicly traded pharmaceutical companies that does most of their manufacturing in the US), among other things... after today's grocery delivery I'll be mostly set for a long time, except for almonds, pistachios, and soybeans, which are likely to actually go down in price as a result of retaliatory tariffs (because the US is a net exporter)---although general inflation and mass deportations could overwhelm the tariff-induced demand reduction (which held during the much milder tariffs of Trump's first term---as I mentioned before, Chinese retaliation caused the price of soybeans to go down in the US---would be funny if MAGA were forced to start eating soy instead of meat (or eggs)) there.

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 02 April 2025 - 07:09 PM

[Mentalist]

Cause, on 02 April 2025 - 06:18 PM, said:

After Trumps DOJ asked a judge to dismiss the federal corruption charges against NYC mayor Eric Adams he has decided to do so with Prejudice. This means that if Trump feels Adams isnt being co-operative he cant threaten to reinstate the charges. Okay. This just means Adams is a bigger winner than ever. Crazy abuse

_________________________________________________________________

I really feel like I am watching American democracy die slowly. Not an exaggeration. Not a joke. The people with power to stop this are treating it like one though and that only makes the feeling worse. Deporting innocent people to foreign prisons. Treating the inner members of Trumps orbit as untouchables who cant make mistakes (Signal Gate). Breaking the safety nets for people. We all know this but we all seem to be waiting for brown shirts marching on the capital before we act. no wait that happened already.

He pardoned them and then even floated paying them reperations. He is not joking about a third term he says. The man isnt leaving.
________________________________________________________

Smartest thing happening is the Senate is apparently going to vote to block Tariffs. It either blocks Tariffs or more likely every republican must endorse them on record. We shall see what the markets says later.

Didn't their last Continuation Resolution thing have an amendment where the Congress basically gave up their power to check tariffs?
I'm pretty sure that's what the uproar aimed at Schumer was for.

EDIT: weeeeelp

RIP, Globalization.
You had a good run, I guess.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 02 April 2025 - 09:21 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Stock market plunging after tariff announcement. Much worse than expected.

It appears the tariffs will stack with previously announced tariffs as well. So that's an almost 50% tariff on Japanese cars.

And the 25% auto tariff will apply to all computers as well---and not just computers somehow connected with automobiles. Laptops, desktops, etc.

UK not exempt from the baseline 10% tariff on all foreign goods.

Economists were predicting that a 20% tariff on all foreign goods would lead to recession, but the average tariff rate is now roughly estimated to be closer to 30%.

Quote

"Needless to say, [a 20% tariff ...] would result in a significant recession," Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's, [told] Axios in an email.

[...] The Yale Budget Lab has estimated that a 20% tariff, with retaliation, could reduce the average household's purchasing power by up to $4,200.

[...] Even the manufacturing sector these tariffs were designed to help is hurting. [...]

[...] it would be the first time a president's policies directly caused [a recession].

Michael Strain, a conservative, writes in Project Syndicate: "Previously, it would have been unfathomable for a president — including Trump during his first term — to inflict so much harm on the economy deliberately."

https://www.axios.co...-liberation-day

Vietnam slashed their tariffs on the US to try to avoid getting hit with tariffs, but Trump still announced a 46% tariff on all goods from Vietnam. More tariffs still to come---on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, lumber, etc.

Vietnam slashes duties on range of imports to head off US tariffs

Vietnam probably made the mistake of not realizing that Trump wants them to slash their tariffs after he announces massive Big Boy tariffs on them.

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 02 April 2025 - 10:02 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Apparently at least some of the tariffs won't stack after all:

Quote

White House says Trump tariffs won’t add onto existing taxes on imports of steel, aluminum and autos.

https://finance.yaho...-212659000.html

Assuming they meant "existing tariffs"...

[Mentalist]

It doesn't sound like anyone in White House is 100% sure what their boss really means.

I've spent all day thinking back to Nero and Kaligula.
What kind of animal will this guy bring into the Senate?

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

So now the White House is saying that USMCA compliant goods from Canada and Mexico will not be subject to tariffs.

But they've also been claiming that some things which are clearly USMCA compliant are not USMCA compliant:

Quote

The White House has indicated that 50% of Mexican imports and 30% of incoming products from Canada are covered by the USMCA. It reportedly cited Mexican avocados as one of the products that is not under that umbrella.

But Mexican President Claudia Scheinbaum [...] contended that the USMCA covers virtually every Mexican product that's imported into the States.

https://www.ifmaworl...ack-off-for-now

Quote

The USMCA allows for materials produced in Mexico, Canada or the United States to be "originating" and therefore qualify for duty-free treatment across North America. Importers or manufacturers must prepare a Certificate of Origin attesting to the product's USMCA status. There are four different tests available for goods to qualify under the USMCA:

Materials from North America, such as American lumber, Mexican avocados, or Canadian mineral ores.
Products wholly manufactured from originating materials in North America.

Products manufactured from non-originating materials that undergo "substantial transformation" in North America.

Products assembled in North America without substantial transformation but meeting a product-specific regional content/costs requirement.

https://www.honigman.com/alert-2897

... but the Trump administration may hate avocados. Because they associate avocado toast with liberals. So who knows what they'll do. (Oh wait I think I know... corruption!)

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 02 April 2025 - 10:45 PM

[Whisperzzzzzzz]

Azath Vitr (D, on 02 April 2025 - 09:29 PM, said:

Stock market plunging after tariff announcement. Much worse than expected.

It appears the tariffs will stack with previously announced tariffs as well. So that's an almost 50% tariff on Japanese cars.

And the 25% auto tariff will apply to all computers as well---and not just computers somehow connected with automobiles. Laptops, desktops, etc.

UK not exempt from the baseline 10% tariff on all foreign goods.

Economists were predicting that a 20% tariff on all foreign goods would lead to recession, but the average tariff rate is now roughly estimated to be closer to 30%.

Quote

"Needless to say, [a 20% tariff ...] would result in a significant recession," Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's, [told] Axios in an email.

[...] The Yale Budget Lab has estimated that a 20% tariff, with retaliation, could reduce the average household's purchasing power by up to $4,200.

[...] Even the manufacturing sector these tariffs were designed to help is hurting. [...]

[...] it would be the first time a president's policies directly caused [a recession].

Michael Strain, a conservative, writes in Project Syndicate: "Previously, it would have been unfathomable for a president — including Trump during his first term — to inflict so much harm on the economy deliberately."

https://www.axios.co...-liberation-day

Vietnam slashed their tariffs on the US to try to avoid getting hit with tariffs, but Trump still announced a 46% tariff on all goods from Vietnam. More tariffs still to come---on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, lumber, etc.

Vietnam slashes duties on range of imports to head off US tariffs

Vietnam probably made the mistake of not realizing that Trump wants them to slash their tariffs after he announces massive Big Boy tariffs on them.

I sold the volatile half of my portfolio last week (BTC/ETH and individual stocks, not index funds). Going to put it in a CD Ladder, as I am hoping to buy a house in the next few years (lol yeah right). Rebalanced my index funds slightly more toward bonds. Not a moment too soon.

I should have sold more tbh but I was too risk averse.

[Tsundoku]

So they put tariffs on the Australian territories of Norfolk Island, Heard Island and McDonald Island.

https://www.news.com...c1cfa0a4a86a696

There's 2000 people on Norfolk Island, and they don't export anything to the USA afaik.
The other islands are uninhabited by people, but are predator-free and used as breeding grounds for Antarctic creatures of all sorts.

Did someone hack their database or are they really that stupid?

This post has been edited by Tsundoku: 03 April 2025 - 07:49 AM

[Tiste Simeon]

They really are that stupid. Stupid and evil and insanely powerful. So it doesn't matter. Nothing matters.

[Garak]

So how is the unemployment levels looking since Trump came to power?

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Tsundoku, on 03 April 2025 - 07:44 AM, said:

So they put tariffs on the Australian territories of Norfolk Island, Heard Island and McDonald Island.

https://www.news.com...c1cfa0a4a86a696

There's 2000 people on Norfolk Island, and they don't export anything to the USA afaik.
The other islands are uninhabited by people, but are predator-free and used as breeding grounds for Antarctic creatures of all sorts.

Did someone hack their database or are they really that stupid?

The 10% base-line tariff applies to all imported goods, with the exception of USMCA compliant goods from Canada and Mexico. Even if a place is uninhabited they don't want production being shifted there to avoid tariffs. So the tariffs should also apply to the moon and Mars (unless Musk and Bezos object...).

Norfolk Island doesn't put any tariffs on US goods so the Trump administration is getting their "58% tariff" number from "currency manipulation and trade barriers" (or an error on the part of incompetent personnel).

https://www.sbs.com....riffs/scme0dzxt

Apparently despite what the Trump administration said before they actually have been recognizing Mexican avocados (grown in Mexico, that is) as USMCA compliant and therefore not subject to tariffs.

Some Mexican goods, like pumpkin seeds imported from China and then salted and roasted in Mexico, are apparently not covered by USMCA, and were already subject to a 25% tariff. (China and India grow far more pumpkin seeds than Mexico.)

https://rulings.cbp.gov/ruling/n332007

So the big winners from the tariffs now seem to be... Mexico and Canada.

Congratulations, Canadians. It seems you've won the trade war. For the moment.

But remember... Trump doesn't like losing, and he's driven by revenge...

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 03 April 2025 - 09:58 AM

[amphibian]

Tsundoku, on 03 April 2025 - 07:44 AM, said:

So they put tariffs on the Australian territories of Norfolk Island, Heard Island and McDonald Island.

https://www.news.com...c1cfa0a4a86a696

There's 2000 people on Norfolk Island, and they don't export anything to the USA afaik.
The other islands are uninhabited by people, but are predator-free and used as breeding grounds for Antarctic creatures of all sorts.

Did someone hack their database or are they really that stupid?

The people making the list used AI, which promptly did some stupid stuff and because the people are also stupid, they just went with it. I am not joking when I say the numbers and country pulls are functionally made up garbage.

https://www.nytimes....alculation.html

AI is garbage and so are the people using it here.

[Abyss]

Azath Vitr (D, on 03 April 2025 - 09:57 AM, said:

...

So the big winners from the tariffs now seem to be... Mexico and Canada.

Congratulations, Canadians. It seems you've won the trade war. For the moment.

WE WIN!!!!!!!!

Quote

But remember... Trump doesn't like losing, and he's driven by revenge...

Fuck.

[Tiste Simeon]

amphibian, on 03 April 2025 - 12:53 PM, said:

Tsundoku, on 03 April 2025 - 07:44 AM, said:

So they put tariffs on the Australian territories of Norfolk Island, Heard Island and McDonald Island.

https://www.news.com...c1cfa0a4a86a696

There's 2000 people on Norfolk Island, and they don't export anything to the USA afaik.
The other islands are uninhabited by people, but are predator-free and used as breeding grounds for Antarctic creatures of all sorts.

Did someone hack their database or are they really that stupid?

The people making the list used AI, which promptly did some stupid stuff and because the people are also stupid, they just went with it. I am not joking when I say the numbers and country pulls are functionally made up garbage.

https://www.nytimes....alculation.html

AI is garbage and so are the people using it here.

Careful, you've mentioned AI which means Azath is about to appear and post a massive unhinged and convoluted rant about how great AI is...

[QuickTidal]

 this-time-will-be-different-right-v0-773dx5mb6kse1.jpeg copy.jpg (96.61K)
Number of downloads: 0

[worry]

How will this affect the Switch 2?

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

worry, on 03 April 2025 - 02:42 PM, said:

How will this affect the Switch 2?

Actually saw an article on that today in my newsfeed:

What will the Switch 2 cost after the Trump tariffs? Nintendo's new console is manufactured in countries under heavy tariffs from Trump.

It's not that AI is garbage, but there are many applications it's not yet ready to handle without expert human supervision... without making lots of errors (and even more than unassisted humans would). At the very least it needs to be checked carefully. (There are some applications where AI can already exceed human experts when it comes to checking for errors, particularly given its massive speed advantage.)

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 03 April 2025 - 03:01 PM

[worry]

Azath Vitr (D, on 03 April 2025 - 03:01 PM, said:

worry, on 03 April 2025 - 02:42 PM, said:

How will this affect the Switch 2?

Actually saw an article on that today in my newsfeed:

What will the Switch 2 cost after the Trump tariffs? Nintendo's new console is manufactured in countries under heavy tariffs from Trump.

Aw hell nah! I am officially against this president.

[QuickTidal]

worry, on 03 April 2025 - 03:05 PM, said:

Azath Vitr (D, on 03 April 2025 - 03:01 PM, said:

worry, on 03 April 2025 - 02:42 PM, said:

How will this affect the Switch 2?

Actually saw an article on that today in my newsfeed:

What will the Switch 2 cost after the Trump tariffs? Nintendo's new console is manufactured in countries under heavy tariffs from Trump.

Aw hell nah! I am officially against this president.

The launch price in Canada is $700...that's no bueno for me man. I could not afford that in my wildest dreams...not with two kids and a mortgage. LOL


And the games are going to be digital $80? Feck off Nintendo.


That said, most of my anticipated games for the foreseeable future (WITCHBROOK, and HAUNTED CHOCOLATIER) will be available on Switch 1....so I should be fine. I expect the game that would cause me to want one will be whatever the next full ANIMAL CROSSING game is....but I feel like that's a few years off yet.

This post has been edited by QuickTidal: 03 April 2025 - 03:08 PM

[worry]

Yeah I'm never actually an early console adopter anyway. I've just been saving some Xmas gift cards for this in particular, as a treat. Oh well, it can wait.