Cause, on 02 April 2025 - 06:18 PM, said:
Quote
[...] Berezin gained attention this year for being the lone [US stocks] bear on Wall Street coming into 2025. Further, he correctly called that in 2022 there would be no US recession — despite most on the Street bracing for one.
Berezin doubled down on his recent call that there is a 75% chance of a US recession this year. [...] as consumers pull back amid a more inflationary environment, thanks to a global trade war.
Assuming his economic call holds true, Berezin thinks the S&P 500 (^GSPC) is destined for 4,450 — down about 21% from current levels.
[...] The best places for investors to hide out this year may continue to be gold and consumer staples and soon, bonds.
[...] "I don't think the effect of tariffs is fully priced into markets," Berezin said. "If you look at what's happened to stocks this year, they have gone down, but they've gone down primarily because of the Magnificent 7 stocks. If you look at the other 493 companies, they're basically flat for the year. That's not what you would expect from a market that has priced in a recession."
https://finance.yaho...-140326769.html
Bought a little more gold (IAUM), CAOS, and VRTX (Vertex Pharmaceuticals, one of the only publicly traded pharmaceutical companies that does most of their manufacturing in the US), among other things... after today's grocery delivery I'll be mostly set for a long time, except for almonds, pistachios, and soybeans, which are likely to actually go down in price as a result of retaliatory tariffs (because the US is a net exporter)---although general inflation and mass deportations could overwhelm the tariff-induced demand reduction (which held during the much milder tariffs of Trump's first term---as I mentioned before, Chinese retaliation caused the price of soybeans to go down in the US---would be funny if MAGA were forced to start eating soy instead of meat (or eggs)) there.
This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 02 April 2025 - 07:09 PM