[QuickTidal]

Azath Vitr (D, on 11 March 2025 - 03:48 PM, said:

Quote

The United States buys more steel from Canada than from any other country, and those imports will become much more expensive under tariffs President Trump intends to impose this week.

That's good news to Stephen Capone, president of Capone Iron Corporation of Rowley, Mass., which makes steel stairs, handrails, gratings and other products and has around 100 employees. For too long, he said, Canadian competitors have been flooding the New England market with cheap steel products, preventing his and other local companies from winning business.

"No matter how low we bid, they can underbid us on any job," Mr. Capone said. "They're decimating our market."

https://www.nytimes....supporters.html

What's brutal about this is that if they had been competitive, this would not be a problem and the people in the States would have bought from them....that they are outbid every time just shows their margins are too tight and moreso because Canada has much more steel to buy.

Do they think that just because steel gets tariffed that somehow the production of it will triple in the states? They can't just magically make factories appear to do it...that would take years and even if they did eventually appear, those factories would shut the minute a democratic president was back in power and got rid of the tariffs....it's fucking nonsense all the way down, and idiotic Americans are slurping it up. This guy will only make more money until a sensible administration removes the tariffs and then he's back to where he is now.


Someone needs to explain to these people "If The US companies could buy from US manufacturers with regards to resources and it made monetary sense THEY FUCKING WOULD...".....forcing them to buy from US manufacturers with higher costs is braindead stupid and sooner or later those massive industries are going to come knocking at Congresses door (and lets face facts Congress coult stop this madness ANYTIME they like) to make it stop...

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

QuickTidal, on 11 March 2025 - 04:10 PM, said:

Do they think that just because steel gets tariffed that somehow the production of it will triple in the states? They can't just magically make factories appear to do it...that would take years and even if they did eventually appear, those factories would shut the minute a democratic president was back in power and got rid of the tariffs....it's fucking nonsense all the way down, and idiotic Americans are slurping it up. This guy will only make more money until a sensible administration removes the tariffs and then he's back to where he is now.

From the New York Times (one month ago):

Quote

U.S. companies import only about 26 percent of the steel they use, according to the International Trade Administration, and that number has been falling.

At the same time, end users seeking alternatives to foreign suppliers may have options. U.S. iron and steel producers are operating at only about 70 percent capacity. The first Trump administration aimed to get to 80 percent, and did so briefly. But underpriced Chinese exports have taken a toll on domestic producers in recent years, forcing older, less efficient mills to close and leaving others with fewer orders than they can handle.

[...] While much of the steel that auto manufacturers use is produced in the United States, those companies and their suppliers also depend on specialized alloys that are available only from overseas producers. Virtually all automakers would be affected, including Tesla, which in 2023 petitioned for an exemption to tariffs.

The company told officials it needed steel available only from abroad, reportedly for the Cybertruck, which has a stainless steel body.

Is It Made of Metal? It Could Get More Expensive Under Trump's Latest Tariffs. Duties of 25 percent on steel and aluminum will flow through to car buyers, beer drinkers, home builders, oil drillers and other users of metal goods.

Specifically, Tesla relies on specialty steel from a Finnish producer... but I'd bet on Trump granting Musk an exemption (at least eventually---so long as he stays sufficiently within the bounds of Trump's good graces).

So some quick math: US steel manufacturing currently operating at 70% capacity, about 10% of that is exported, and about 25% of steel used in the US is imported. So 90% of US steel production is used domestically, and it satisfies 75% of US steel usage. Let s represent US steel production capacity and q represent the amount of steel the US uses.

0.7*0.9*s = 0.75*q

s/q = 0.75/(0.7*0.9) ≈ 1.19

If that estimate of what % of operating capacity US steel manufacturers are at is too low, what % would it have to be for s/q to be less than 1? Another simple calculation:

1 > 0.75/(x*0.9)

x > 0.75/0.9 = 83.33...%

So if these figures are accurate and I haven't somehow made an error in the math, the US already has the capacity to produce 119% of its current steel usage, with the notable exception of specialty steel that apparently still has to be imported (IDK how quickly US manufacturers could replicate those specialty steels at scale). However, if steel starts being used at a higher rate---for our robot armies, for example---or if those specialty steels make up a large enough percentage, the math could change substantially. And IDK what % of that specialty steel that can't yet be produced domestically comes from Canada.

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 11 March 2025 - 05:15 PM

[QuickTidal]

I don't think any of that has to do with it though...American companies producing steel KNOWING they are the only game in town have zero reason to compete, and thus prices can be whatever they set them to be. Canada being in the ballgame means they have to try to complete and that keeps prices lower...letting American fend for itself on steel will mean higher prices once the market is cornered in your country.

[QuickTidal]

A French nuclear attack submarine has surfaced at Halifax, Nova Scotia, after Trump threatens to annex Canada.

Macron is subtle. Oh nothing to see here Donny, just the EU throwing up an early defence to Canadian waters/borders.

Love it.

I mean let's be real, I don't WANT a war with the USA, but I'm very happy to see our EU allies are telling Trump subtly "You will absolutely the fuck not"


I also expect the Aussies to be on our shores in a heartbeat if he ever tries even a small land grab.


HOW IS THIS THE TIMELINE? I never thought in a million years that the USA and Canada would be at odds like this. Goes to show you how far cult leader can push shit if he has no checks or balances on this power.

This post has been edited by QuickTidal: 11 March 2025 - 05:35 PM

[Abyss]

QuickTidal, on 11 March 2025 - 05:25 PM, said:

I don't think any of that has to do with it though...American companies producing steel KNOWING they are the only game in town have zero reason to compete, and thus prices can be whatever they set them to be. Canada being in the ballgame means they have to try to complete and that keeps prices lower...letting American fend for itself on steel will mean higher prices once the market is cornered in your country.

Yep... Canadian steel w a nice hefty trumpy tariff, or US steel w a nice hefty WOOHOO PROFIT WHEEEE SCREW YOU CUSTOMERS!!!.
Have fun making all those cars you're not going to sell.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

QuickTidal, on 11 March 2025 - 05:25 PM, said:

I don't think any of that has to do with it though...American companies producing steel KNOWING they are the only game in town have zero reason to compete, and thus prices can be whatever they set them to be. Canada being in the ballgame means they have to try to complete and that keeps prices lower...letting American fend for itself on steel will mean higher prices once the market is cornered in your country.

They almost certainly will, which is why I included not only the headline but the subhead for that article from last month---"Is It Made of Metal? It Could Get More Expensive Under Trump's Latest Tariffs. Duties of 25 percent on steel and aluminum will flow through to car buyers, beer drinkers, home builders, oil drillers and other users of metal goods."

I'm not keen on playing idiot tyrant's advocate, but one argument in favor of steel tariffs is that the Canadian government's steel subsidies are providing an unfair advantage---pretty much the same argument I gather the Canadian government is using for tariffs on Chinese steel in turn. Chinese and Canadian citizens were paying for US consumers to get cheaper stuff. But now US consumers are going to have to pay---if they consume. It's almost as regressive as a value-added tax.

In cases where production is virtuous---and steel and aluminum are probably two such cases---I think we'll agree (well, at least two of us, that is) that China is in the right, and the US and Canada are in the wrong: subsidies are preferable to tariffs and "free market" forces.

Given Carney's background, I expected him to be a hypocritical "free market" ideologue; but apparently not (from back in 2021):

Quote

In his new 608-page book, Carney laments the economic consensus that "value is subjective". This pillar of economics says that the value of goods, such as cars, are determined not by their gadgets or the labour producing them but by individuals' judgments of the car's importance in meeting our own needs. [...]

According to Carney, however, our "marketised society", governed by this principle, corrupts society's "values", because it blurs the distinction between market prices and "social value". Price is conflated with value, such that everything unpriced is seen as non-valuable.

We therefore need to move away from "unfettered capitalism", he says, to an economic model where, rather than pursuing our own subjective interests, society forges "consensus" on its objectives based on our "shared values". Markets can then be "marshalled to help discover and drive solutions in a form of mission-oriented capitalism". So we might call "sustainability" our value and make mitigating climate change an objective. Capitalism should be harnessed to deliver that goal.

https://www.cato.org...e-muddled-farce

Capitalism, or something more efficient....

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 11 March 2025 - 06:26 PM

[QuickTidal]

Azath Vitr (D, on 11 March 2025 - 06:24 PM, said:

I'm not keen on playing idiot tyrant's advocate,

Cool, then don't. Seriously, don't.

No one here needs you to thump your American chest about who's getting a worse deal.

[HoosierDaddy]

 QuickTidal, on 11 March 2025 - 06:45 PM, said:

 Azath Vitr (D, on 11 March 2025 - 06:24 PM, said:

I'm not keen on playing idiot tyrant's advocate,

Cool, then don't. Seriously, don't.

No one here needs you to thump your American chest about who's getting a worse deal.

That’s a little… restrictive? It is a discussion board. There are people who think whatever they are told and at least here the truth will out as opposed to the wider world where there lies drown everything.

[Macros]

Yeah, I find it hard to follow at times but do appreciate the devils advocate here

[QuickTidal]

My country is being threatened with annexation, so I'm not exactly in the best spirits about all this.

[worry]

[QuickTidal]

I did read a notion that makes invasion less likely....aside from all the NATO, commonwealth, the rest of the world reasons they would not let the US invade us...the US would need a wartime economy to support was war like that, and invading us would cease ALL trade with the States and cripple their economy (or at least hobble it)...and he also is stripping bare govt agencies like the CIA which you'd need in wartime.


That makes me feel a little less concerned overall about a boots on the ground invasion...but it's still insane that a bare two months in I have to ACTUALLY scenario this out...I never thought in my life that I would have to view the US as an enemy state...never.

[HoosierDaddy]

 QuickTidal, on 12 March 2025 - 11:52 AM, said:

My country is being threatened with annexation, so I'm not exactly in the best spirits about all this.

It’s my inclination is to say it’s ludicrous to think it is even remotely possible that attempt is made. But I get how most of this seemed prima facie ludicrous just 6 months ago, and that muddies the water.

However, I do think that real movement towards that (troops on the border, threats to conquer if not peaceably given, etc.) would be a step too far for nearly every American.

[QuickTidal]

HoosierDaddy, on 12 March 2025 - 01:17 PM, said:

QuickTidal, on 12 March 2025 - 11:52 AM, said:

My country is being threatened with annexation, so I'm not exactly in the best spirits about all this.

It’s my inclination is to say it’s ludicrous to think it is even remotely possible that attempt is made. But I get how most of this seemed prima facie ludicrous just 6 months ago, and that muddies the water.

However, I do think that real movement towards that (troops on the border, threats to conquer if not peaceably given, etc.) would be a step too far for nearly every American.

I mean I would hope so....but then I also thought that you guys would never let this guy anywhere near the Whitehouse again, and THEN I thought that he could not do a bunch of things becuase of your checks and balances...but that proves fruitless, and he's openly doing criminal things now and your SCOTUS absolves him of the crimes, and no one is actually enforcing the enforceable laws and your democrats are rolling over...so my faith in him NOT doing this shit or at least attempting it is INCREDIBLY low.

I wish it were otherwise. I'm. Fucking. angry. I want my kids to have a decent life, and this ONE fucker that your country voted into office is trying to tear down the world cause he's petulant and vengeful...and because we are your next door neighbours I now have to worry what my kids are going to have to suffer economically and possibly militarily....because of ONE GUY.

That's not right, and it shows that the US is not a stable nation or a safe one to be allied with. even when you have a democrat in office, we now no longer have ANY guarantees that this shit won't just return four years on with some other lunatic because your fabled checks and balances are a non-existent fucking MYTH.

This post has been edited by QuickTidal: Yesterday, 01:24 PM

[amphibian]

 HoosierDaddy, on 12 March 2025 - 01:17 PM, said:

 QuickTidal, on 12 March 2025 - 11:52 AM, said:

My country is being threatened with annexation, so I'm not exactly in the best spirits about all this.

It’s my inclination is to say it’s ludicrous to think it is even remotely possible that attempt is made. But I get how most of this seemed prima facie ludicrous just 6 months ago, and that muddies the water.

However, I do think that real movement towards that (troops on the border, threats to conquer if not peaceably given, etc.) would be a step too far for nearly every American.

We're at the stage where people are being disappeared visibly. Do you remember the protestors who got abducted by paramilitary contractors and ICE during the last Trump term? We're somehow past that.

I can't demonstrate much due to the nature of my job (govt work), but we are seeing some seriously horrible stuff happen boldly without much pushback from the people who don't want those to be happening and an embrace of the horrible from those who have purposely signed up for the night makes right/death cult aspect of things.

I think validating fears is more useful now than saying "this is unlikely and a nameless they will stop the horrible stuff from happening". Our nameless they haven't been doing great jobs of stopping what's happening now.

This post has been edited by amphibian: Yesterday, 01:54 PM

[HoosierDaddy]

amphibian, on 12 March 2025 - 01:53 PM, said:

HoosierDaddy, on 12 March 2025 - 01:17 PM, said:

QuickTidal, on 12 March 2025 - 11:52 AM, said:

My country is being threatened with annexation, so I'm not exactly in the best spirits about all this.

It's my inclination is to say it's ludicrous to think it is even remotely possible that attempt is made. But I get how most of this seemed prima facie ludicrous just 6 months ago, and that muddies the water.

However, I do think that real movement towards that (troops on the border, threats to conquer if not peaceably given, etc.) would be a step too far for nearly every American.

We're at the stage where people are being disappeared visibly. Do you remember the protestors who got abducted by paramilitary contractors and ICE during the last Trump term? We're somehow past that.

I can't demonstrate much due to the nature of my job (govt work), but we are seeing some seriously horrible stuff happen boldly without much pushback from the people who don't want those to be happening and an embrace of the horrible from those who have purposely signed up for the night makes right/death cult aspect of things.

I think validating fears is more useful now than saying "this is unlikely and a nameless they will stop the horrible stuff from happening". Our nameless they haven't been doing great jobs of stopping what's happening now.

First, I'm not invalidating fears. I can see why the fear exists while disagreeing with the level of fear being espoused.

Secondly and unfortunately I think there is a magnitude of difference between individuals who are a part of politically divisive movements and actual preparation for war with a neighboring country. So I think the pushback levels are subsequently levels of different magnitudes as well. From an outside perspective, the WRONG people aren't being harmed... yet. Just being honest. Right or wrong, the "silent majority" honestly does not care about an individual who was advocating for Gazans in New York City on a college campus the same way they care about warfare on the northern border.

[HoosierDaddy]

QuickTidal, on 12 March 2025 - 01:17 PM, said:

I did read a notion that makes invasion less likely....aside from all the NATO, commonwealth, the rest of the world reasons they would not let the US invade us...the US would need a wartime economy to support was war like that, and invading us would cease ALL trade with the States and cripple their economy (or at least hobble it)...and he also is stripping bare govt agencies like the CIA which you'd need in wartime.


That makes me feel a little less concerned overall about a boots on the ground invasion...but it's still insane that a bare two months in I have to ACTUALLY scenario this out...I never thought in my life that I would have to view the US as an enemy state...never.

An attempted invasion of Canada would result in an internal civil war. That's why it won't happen.

[QuickTidal]

HoosierDaddy, on 12 March 2025 - 02:10 PM, said:

QuickTidal, on 12 March 2025 - 01:17 PM, said:

I did read a notion that makes invasion less likely....aside from all the NATO, commonwealth, the rest of the world reasons they would not let the US invade us...the US would need a wartime economy to support was war like that, and invading us would cease ALL trade with the States and cripple their economy (or at least hobble it)...and he also is stripping bare govt agencies like the CIA which you'd need in wartime.


That makes me feel a little less concerned overall about a boots on the ground invasion...but it's still insane that a bare two months in I have to ACTUALLY scenario this out...I never thought in my life that I would have to view the US as an enemy state...never.

An attempted invasion of Canada would result in an internal civil war. That's why it won't happen.

Again, I want you to be right HD. I truly do. But in the last 8 yers I've been told a whole SLEW of things could and would not happen...that ended up happening.

[Mentalist]

I've definitely heard "there's no way they'd be dumb enough to invade" rhetoric somewhere else in the past 4 years.

There's sort of bad precedent for this, and the American public frog is being boiled pretty intensively RN with how much they are letting their new regime get away with.

The "51st state" rhetoric IS getting normalized, b/c no one is calling it out, because the people who should be think "why make a fuss over something so obviously ludicrous? EVERYONE knows it's ludicrous, so why bother?"

Except that's not how this shit works. Ukrainians felt the same way about orc TV decrying "Nazi coup" in Ukraine. Up until the point the bombs started falling, and those calling their relatives in Muscovy heard "well, it's for your own good, we're just liberating you from the horrible people that are oppressing you"

So, yes, Canada needs to be over-reacting, and squashing this at every opportunity. This isn't a time to be subtle, it's a time to set boundaries. Frankly, every time American media lets that shit slide, Canadian embassy should be issuing a statement.

[QuickTidal]

Mentalist, on 12 March 2025 - 04:24 PM, said:

I've definitely heard "there's no way they'd be dumb enough to invade" rhetoric somewhere else in the past 4 years.

There's sort of bad precedent for this, and the American public frog is being boiled pretty intensively RN with how much they are letting their new regime get away with.

The "51st state" rhetoric IS getting normalized, b/c no one is calling it out, because the people who should be think "why make a fuss over something so obviously ludicrous? EVERYONE knows it's ludicrous, so why bother?"

Except that's not how this shit works. Ukrainians felt the same way about orc TV decrying "Nazi coup" in Ukraine. Up until the point the bombs started falling, and those calling their relatives in Muscovy heard "well, it's for your own good, we're just liberating you from the horrible people that are oppressing you"

So, yes, Canada needs to be over-reacting, and squashing this at every opportunity. This isn't a time to be subtle, it's a time to set boundaries. Frankly, every time American media lets that shit slide, Canadian embassy should be issuing a statement.

What blows my mind is that Trump is lucky that people react like that, because if ANY other political leader on the planet casually talked about annexing other sovereign nations it would be considered a prelude to obvious war and the sabres would get rattled.

We live in a timeline where the President of an ally nation is just like "Yeah, we want Canada to be absorbed"...probably at the behest of Putin.

And the Russian bot misinvfrimaiton production is on overdrive right now online....SO many "Canadian here, we WANT to be part of America!" on any post about this....mixed with a slew of "Carney is unelected! How can you all be okay with that?!"....and then you have to waste your time explaining to them how our parliamentary system works...to no avail cause they are all Bots on mission to discredit Canada and its elections (which are pretty damned safe and secure).