[Merrid]

Shadow, on 25 January 2012 - 12:54 PM, said:

Liosan, on 25 January 2012 - 11:39 AM, said:

Wait. The ashikaga and uesugi both lost someone, and their alliance ended, but the other two are at full strength and the alliance is intact

My guess would be that lynches don't affect alliances, while NA's do. Either the U-A faction attacked eachother on accident, thus ending alliance, or one of the leaders broke the alliance (assuming they're the ones with that power).

Culture hunt anyone?

1. Silanah
2. Liosan
3. Tulas Shorn

Those are the people that are likely to be Uesugi.

Culture hunt is fine by me We never did one in the last 'proper' equal-distribution merc game -> the Locka Lamora game, and that was ages ago anyways. It's about time!

[Fener]

If Tulas Shorn was in fact attempting to stave off Eloth's lynch with a seeming appeal to the glories of RP, then I commend it as an imaginative effort to derail a lynch

I agree that the three Shadow outlined are the likeliest candidates for Uesugi.

[Fener]

I wonder if Liosan's early vote on Galayn Lord might be an attempt to get a different train going before any proper pressure comes down on him?

On the other hand, I do think that Galayn Lord merits further scrutiny. Oviously, as I was the one to point it out in the first place

[Merrid]

Fener, on 25 January 2012 - 03:15 PM, said:

If Tulas Shorn was in fact attempting to stave off Eloth's lynch with a seeming appeal to the glories of RP, then I commend it as an imaginative effort to derail a lynch

I agree that the three Shadow outlined are the likeliest candidates for Uesugi.

Fener, on 25 January 2012 - 03:19 PM, said:

I wonder if Liosan's early vote on Galayn Lord might be an attempt to get a different train going before any proper pressure comes down on him?

On the other hand, I do think that Galayn Lord merits further scrutiny. Oviously, as I was the one to point it out in the first place

Fener is speaking clearly, using proper logic and generally being reasonable and amicable... LYNCH HIM!

[Atrahal]

Caught up on phone. Tons of classes today, so little time.

Culture hunting is good, but TS seemes too loud to be important. And silanah was supposedly recognised by another player.

vote Silanah

[Shadow]

You say TS is too loud to be important...

we just lynched GH for being flamboyant. He was a leader.

[Merrid]

Atrahal, on 25 January 2012 - 03:26 PM, said:

Caught up on phone. Tons of classes today, so little time.

Culture hunting is good, but TS seemes too loud to be important. And silanah was supposedly recognised by another player.

vote Silanah

Do you mean recognised in the Liosan-might-have-signaled-her way, or in the alted way?

If the latter, I think half the game has recognized Silanah now...

[Atrahal]

Merrid, on 25 January 2012 - 03:33 PM, said:

Atrahal, on 25 January 2012 - 03:26 PM, said:

Caught up on phone. Tons of classes today, so little time.

Culture hunting is good, but TS seemes too loud to be important. And silanah was supposedly recognised by another player.

vote Silanah

Do you mean recognised in the Liosan-might-have-signaled-her way, or in the alted way?

If the latter, I think half the game has recognized Silanah now...

signal

[Galayn Lord]

Fener, on 25 January 2012 - 12:15 PM, said:

Silanah's reaction to the death stands out most to me so far, as if they were trying to convince that Eloth's death/role was unimportant. Even if Eloth's actions were "clearly" role-playing only, as Sil argued, so what? We're not looking for scum. This wasn't an inno who was lynched.

And does anyone else get the impression that Galayn Lord knows a heck of a lot and is disguising it as 'guesses'? I just got that feeling while reading over his latest posts.

Ehm, no. If I knew something, I'd keep it quiet for sure. Not only is there the age old adagium knowledge is power, this is mafia and a faction game to boot. By spreading knowledge all you do is alerting others who have the same knowledge that you share theirs, which in essence is narrowing down whose side you can be on, and generally, they'll translate it as "not on my side" anyway. It also makes people who don't have that knowledge, nervous.

Now, look back over the Open alliance thingie: my sole source for speculation is the fact that it is called Open Alliance other than "Alliance." I'd say that's innocent speculation and perhaps even fucking far-fetched and overly complicating things. However, I'm a bit of a geek when it comes to set-up analysis and I love to work things out, and the best way to go at a theory at some point when you've done all you can in thinking about it, is by throwing it out there and see what reactions are.

Liosan, on 25 January 2012 - 12:36 PM, said:

Especially because he subtly suggested their were secret alliances

This, combined with your non-reason for a vote (after all, if I am playing so well, wouldn't you just LOVE it if I am on your side?) makes me think I struck a chord in Liosan.

Liosan, on 25 January 2012 - 12:43 PM, said:

Them right after he posts he says he wont be back for a while which makes it impossible for anyone to ask for clarofication. Hes playing too well.
Vote galayn lord

Oh really..... dumbest reason for a vote yet. He went away after saying something!!! There's plenty of time in the day, I announced when I would return (and I'm back sooner than I said), and you know, it wasn't like sooooo much has happened since then. You didn't even ask a question, or added your own speculation, or denied or confirmed, so what's your point? What should I have stuck around for?
My guess is, I got closer to what you know of the set-up than you're comfortable with, and... That's quite a bit of fun, actually.

[Galayn Lord]

Vote Liosan

I think he's important. There is of course a small chance he's on my team, but I'm willing to risk it, especially considering how others think he may very well be Uesugi, which isn't my team. Which makes him a very good target, actually.

[Korvalain]

catching up.

[Omtose]

Interesting speculation about alliances, I assumed open meant liable to change as opposed to in the open but I suppose we can't know for sure. I wonder if it was the lynch, the night action or both that ended it though. A new leader could have made a decision to free themselves from alliance but at this moment it would seem like a strange choice when there is danger of a culture hunt and it just created more enemies to deal with. Could have been the Ashikaga leader to cut the ties for that reason though.

Shadows list makes the most sense for possible Uesugi members, not as confident on Tulas Shorn since I think his angle was manly from the RPing thing and less to do with Eloth's strange behaviour but he did argue his point after this was pointed out.

Out of the other two both are registering as suspicious to me, Liosan seems awfully eager to jump start a lynch by voting GL, maybe for no other reason than he was one of the more abundant posters for a second there or GL could have been musing on a mechanic that Liosan didn't want to be mused on.

Silanah struck me as allied in some way with Eloth as soon as she posted yesterday, though it is a really strange post to make considering. Not being able to get on thread as much, being busy and in different time zones is hard and not idea but the way she reacted to the lynch after claiming to have read through all the previous pages seemed awfully reactionary.

[Korvalain]

Ok, all caught up.

In regards to "the List" people keep refering too.

Silanah- My initial impression was that she was pissed that someone on her team got lynched. But as someone else pointed out, you would want to keep that quiet. On the other hand, there are a lot of new players this game, so little slips like that are probably a bit more common. Of the 3 I think Silanah is most likely Uesagi.

Liosan- Folks keep pointing out the "red five" "red Leader" thing. But I find it very hard to believe Lio was Uesagi. He was 2nd on the Eloth train and never removed his vote. There is such thing as distancing, (and I think we saw it with some of the Merrid voters who switched over), but the is no way you help to START a train on your leader and leave your vote there for the duration. I think its very unlikely that Lio is Uesagi.

Tulas Shorn- The initial post by Shelatha I somewhat agree with. And was almost convinced. But then there have been no fewer than 2 people who have come on and defended Tulas, saying that he wasn't defending Eloth, but was criticizing RPing. Brave of the people to defend him, but I think TS is known to some. He may be a higher-up for a non Uesagi team. Thats the vibe I got.

I am gonna go back and look at who was voting around the 3 v 3 mark on Eloth/Merrid voting. there are probably some telling votes of those that were secretly defending Eloth.

[Korvalain]

regarding alliances, I agree with Omtose. I didn't garner anything special from the phrase "open" I just thought that it meant that it was able to be changed/able to accept new members. ie "Open Marrige" where you can bring in new partners... *hubba hubba*

[Korvalain]

I went over the train and voting. There are really only 2-3 people that stand out. Here is where it started relatively even.

Path-Shaper, on 24 January 2012 - 01:20 PM, said:

It is Day 1. 7 Hours and 46 minutes Left.

20 Players still alive: Atrahal, Eloth, Fener, Galayn Lord, Karatallid, Kessobahn, Korlat, Korvalain, Liosan, Merrid, Okaros, Olar Ethil, Omtose, Osseric, Sheltatha Lore, Shadow, Silanah, Sorrit, Tiamatha, Tulas Shorn

11 Votes to Lynch. 10 to go to night.

1 Vote Osseric: Karatallid
1 Vote Atrahal: Tulas Shorn
1 Vote Tulas Shorn: Atrahal
2 Votes Merrid: Eloth, Sorrit
3 Votes Eloth: Shetatha Lore, Liosan, Okaros

Players not voting: Fener, Galayn Lord, Kessobahn, Korlat, Korvalain, Merrid, Olar Ethil, Omtose, Osseric, Shadow, Silanah, Tiamatha

Olar's vote seems innocent, pretty early in the trains, but he never removes his vote. Never switches to Eloth. (granted, I am not sure if he checked back in by lynch) But this is slightly suspicious of trying to derail an Eloth Lynch.

Olar Ethil, on 24 January 2012 - 01:34 PM, said:

Fener, on 24 January 2012 - 12:53 PM, said:

The main point is that Eloth has really done nothing to alleviate suspicion. If anything, this actually makes me nervous about Merrid's potential role - is Eloth perhaps now trying to keep attention on him and away from Merrid, who was the other name to come up?

im inclined to agree with Fener. Merrid disappeared as soon as there was any interest in him. Eloth is being waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too obvious. and defensive. and just plain weird. may be more understandable if he had given up on defending himself from being lynched, but there is no reason why these few votes could not be changed before a train develops.

for now, since im about to head off to bed and may not be back up before the end of the day

vote Merrid.

Which puts us here:

Path-Shaper, on 24 January 2012 - 01:44 PM, said:

It is Day 1. 7 Hours and 21 minutes Left.

20 Players still alive: Atrahal, Eloth, Fener, Galayn Lord, Karatallid, Kessobahn, Korlat, Korvalain, Liosan, Merrid, Okaros, Olar Ethil, Omtose, Osseric, Sheltatha Lore, Shadow, Silanah, Sorrit, Tiamatha, Tulas Shorn

11 Votes to Lynch. 10 to go to night.

1 Vote Osseric: Karatallid
1 Vote Atrahal: Tulas Shorn
1 Vote Tulas Shorn: Atrahal
3 Votes Merrid: Eloth, Sorrit, Olar Ethil
4 Votes Eloth: Shetatha Lore, Liosan, Okaros, Galayn Lord

Players not voting: Fener, Kessobahn, Korlat, Korvalain, Merrid, Omtose, Osseric, Shadow, Silanah, Tiamatha

I found this vote suspicious. We are getting close to lynch, it's not last minute by any means, but we are under 7 hours. He makes it a point of saying he could lynch either. He does back that up later by switching to Eloth. Distancing... or just wants a lynch.. I am not sure.

Shadow, on 24 January 2012 - 02:48 PM, said:

I'm typing as I catch up, so hopefully everyone can make sense of what I'm saying without having to respond to individual quotes. There will probably be some stuff that's just my opinion on things that have been discussed throughout the thread.

Lynching low posters is definitely not the way to go in a merc game, unless a connection has been made with a higher poster that can then be explored. I'd prefer to lynch someone who is connected to people. 2 of the same factions lynched at the same time offers the opportunity of a nice culture hunt.

I'd be perfectly willing to vote Merrid or Eloth today, based on my above criteria.

4 factions makes sense, so that scene probably reveals all the factions in play unless there is a 5th. I highly doubt there would be a Korean 5th faction in play, that just seems dumb. But if there were, the Korean letters would be an excellent way for that team to announce it, seeing as no one else would know that they exist.

I've noticed an increase in players insulting each other lately, as first pointed out by GL. Opposite of GL, though, I don't see the problem in it. It's a game, insults and shouting are a tactic. No one truly means it, and I doubt there are ever hard feelings.

I had to delete the fener stuff from that to read it. Took a while. Then I scrolled down and saw that Fener already did it.

Okay, I finished catching up.

Eloth is acting strangely. However, I don't buy into most of the stuff that everyone brings up. His posting style is most likely him having some fun, as people tend to do in a -game-.

However, the fact that the only two posts in Korean are his and Merrid's is actually something interesting. I'm very willing to explore this. So I'm making this vote

Vote Merrid

based upon my opinion that the sneaky use of Korean could have been a sneaky attempt at signaling. I didn't catch it until someone brought it up. I think that I would rather vote Merrid in this case. It doesn't seem as if Eloth is trying to get pressure off himself. Could be he got caught, and is now trying to get lynched and hope that we don't go after Merrid tomorrow.

I'll be around for timeout (most likely - no guarantees).

Which brings us here:

Path-Shaper, on 24 January 2012 - 02:50 PM, said:

It is Day 1. 6 Hours and 16 minutes Left.

20 Players still alive: Atrahal, Eloth, Fener, Galayn Lord, Karatallid, Kessobahn, Korlat, Korvalain, Liosan, Merrid, Okaros, Olar Ethil, Omtose, Osseric, Sheltatha Lore, Shadow, Silanah, Sorrit, Tiamatha, Tulas Shorn

11 Votes to Lynch. 10 to go to night.

1 Vote Atrahal: Tulas Shorn
1 Vote Tulas Shorn: Atrahal
4 Votes Merrid: Eloth, Sorrit, Olar Ethil, Shadow
5 Votes Eloth: Shetatha Lore, Liosan, Okaros, Galayn Lord, Karatallid

Players not voting: Fener, Kessobahn, Korlat, Korvalain, Merrid, Omtose, Osseric, Silanah, Tiamatha

A little strangeness here... shadow makes another statement that he is willing to go either. Is he trying to convince us?

Shadow, on 24 January 2012 - 03:43 PM, said:

* snip huge quote*
I'm willing to switch to Eloth if that's what is required. I'd prefer Merrid as the lynch at the moment, though.

The other vote that jumps out and makes it 5-6 is Atrahal. Like Shadow he removes at deadline and switches to Eloth. I get less of a distancing vibe from Atrahal though as he was very concerned his vote didn't get counted by PS.

Atrahal, on 24 January 2012 - 06:17 PM, said:

well, Merrid is really being put on the spot by Eloth... could be fake-symping, since no one else followed up on the Korean bit.
I'd say it's better to go for the suspected leader. Eloth is certainly not playing the way i'd expect someone important to act.



vote Merrid



as for Silanah, the fact that they are "Redwings" may have something to do with the longevity of that joke.



Or it could be signalling.

Here is where shadow switches. Not much info here

Shadow, on 24 January 2012 - 08:27 PM, said:

Remove Vote

Vote Eloth

stupid phone

Given his justification here, I just don't feel Atrahal is a distancing Uesagi

Atrahal, on 24 January 2012 - 08:30 PM, said:

it's not bold, it's


anyhow, seems even merrid is voting Eloth
[b] remove vote

vote Eloth

sayonara, eloth-kun

Also pulled this quote.

Sheltatha Lore, on 25 January 2012 - 07:13 AM, said:

Well, not sure where to go now.

If we want a Culture hunt, we could go for Tulas Shorn. Merrid I'm not so certain anymore, since in the pair Eloth was the signal-er, and if he was a leader that makes no sense.

Tulas, on the other hand, came and tried to convince us that we were just bad boys picking on the guy for RPing, so that we would hang our heads in shame and not lynch him. And he finished the day without voting him, so I conclude he knew very well who Eloth was.

Just so it's clear, Tulas Shorn WAS around within a few hours of the Lynch and dropped a vote on neither Eloth or Merrid. that does lend some credibility to the fact that he might be Uesagi.

EDIT: spelling and Grammer

This post has been edited by Korvalain: 25 January 2012 - 06:26 PM

[Korvalain]

what does all of the above mean? I am leaning towards Silanah, Olar, TS and Shadow as my most likely Uesagi suspects (In that order..first being most likely). Since it's been determined that there are 5 factions... well, they all can't be. But if I had to draw from a list, and we were culture hunting, thats the list I would draw from.

In which case

vote Silanah

EDIT: more grammer >.<

This post has been edited by Korvalain: 25 January 2012 - 06:29 PM

[Korvalain]

Though the more I think about it, the less likely Shadow is Uesagi.. It would be pointless to check in from your phone just to vote your leader and distance. We were struggling for numbers right up till the end. (remember, we didn't know about the 9 vote mechanic)

[Shadow]

Hmm, so we agree on Sil and TS, but not Liosan. Fair enough. The three I listed were not a definite list, just what I felt with a few quotes to back it up.

I'm a bit confused. You suspect me as Uesagi, along with 2/3 of my list. Wouldn't me being Uesagi negate me pointing fingers at my own team? If I were in your position with that belief, I would be voting Olar, seeing as he is the one you suspect that I didn't vote.

Just rambling really. I voted Merrid because it was relatively early in the day, and I felt I would go after who I believed Eloth was signaling to. I assumed he was an underling who knew his leader, and was trying to let his leader know who he was. I believe I posted that around the time of my vote, or after when explaining. I was most likely wrong, seeing as Eloth turned out to be a leader. I don't have any idea why he would be signaling toward Merrid. So the connection is mostly gone, in my mind.

My switch to Eloth was based upon my desire to lynch one of the pair (Eloth and Merrid). It was coming down to the time limit, so I made the decision to switch.

I have to run, I want to throw down a vote but I don't have time to count and make sure I'm not putting anyone too close to a lynch. I'll be back in a bit.

[Shadow]

Epic crosspost! Anyway, see ya.

[Sheltatha Lore]

I'm OK with voting Silanah instead of Tulas, but then from what I see it's all about her reaction to the lynch. (BTW I don't see why Korvalain does all that lynch train analysis to then vote someone who didn't vote )

If she reacted like this because we just lynched her boss, that's not such a good play. Then again, not impossible, some people still need to learn that posting angry is the equivalent of drunk-calling your ex.


edit: Errr, Tulas, not Eloth

This post has been edited by Sheltatha Lore: 25 January 2012 - 06:44 PM