Sorrit, on 10 January 2012 - 11:48 AM, said:
Sheltatha Lore, on 10 January 2012 - 11:46 AM, said:
Karatallid, on 10 January 2012 - 11:39 AM, said:
Sheltatha Lore, on 10 January 2012 - 10:36 AM, said:
Karatallid, on 09 January 2012 - 11:27 PM, said:
First, how likely is the silenced one to be evil?
If Okaros was UB or BB, he would be in a precarious position considering all the attention he will garner, especially if he posts the wrong pictures and calls even more attention to himself. In general, I think probabilistically speaking, scum are more liable to play it moderately safe on day 1 and hide in the crowd rather than making a ballsy move. That doesn't discount the more likely possibility that UB or BB will be silenced later in the game...
but initially, since the silence probably was submitted to JA before the beginning of the game, I think a silenced person is more likely to be one of us selected at random.
Second, both scum know each other despite not being able to communicate. I think this can play out in several ways, but I think I will hold speculation till later in the day so as not to let the scum try to act in a way opposite to the speculations.
Third and finally, I think there are subtle, maybe unintentional, efforts of people to style themselves in a certain way through their texts. For instance, Osseric with several uses of the phrase "ignorant masses" which I would associate with someone implying they are a townie or even RI role.
Doing a dkt, but this stands out. It is not cool to PI people day one after a few hours into the game and it is even less cool to out inno roles like you just did.
It doesn't really make sense that I would finger Osseric as RI and then vote for him. A more careful read shows that I am considering subtle comments by people that are used to make them seem one way or another (kind of like the ever so popular "he talks about healers and therefore he must be a healer" or alternatively "we townies think" when the person is actually scum).
What I'm actually trying to say is I think Osseric is stressing words that associate him with town ("masses") and rolelessness ("ignorant"). I don't actually think he is RI. I think he is scum trying to blend in. I still remember that game, maybe 10 or so games back?, where scum slipped up and talked about town as if he was not a part of it. A quick lynch of his ass turned up the fact that he was indeed scum (a very surprising mistake for one of the Malazan mafia people, but there it was).
Sheltatha Lore, on 10 January 2012 - 11:05 AM, said:
So was there something else that made me vote worthy or was that the only thing your case on me was based upon?
And I've been wanting to simplify that post that you so kindly quoted. On day 1 in a Benses game, I think we have these three case categories:
- The Silenced - scum or town?
- Interactions Between Players - do we expect a certain behavior for scum (distancing or interaction) and can we call out people because of this expectation?
- Word/phrase Choices - does the way a player speak or the words and phrases they use indicate their orientation in the game? are they signaling? are they implying something?
Initially, at least the last two points are what most mafia games are built on day 1. Later on we will have the lynch CF and a line of voters to analyze, but day 1 is about getting at subtleties and trying to pick a needle out of a haystack (which is why lynches on day 1 are notoriously unsuccessful). Also, day 1 is considered successful with large amounts of thoughtful text, so we can get reads on players, which is why, as i believe would be the case with lynching Okaros, day 1 lynches often are about cleaning out deadwood (non-contributors, low posters, and easy kills).
1. is wifom,
2. is only to be established by visible interaction, the best of which is building a train on someone and see who vehemently defends;
3. is what you use on osseric and I use on you. The issue is this: both our cases are based on lingo. You say Osseric fails to blend in, I say you are signalling him as a potential town (roled) player, which is bad conduct for a townie. If you manage to get the lynch on him, that's the test of your theory. If not, then you singled him out. Scum then has two options: let him live and see what town does (aka sowing doubt) or kill him. Which is obviously a loss for town (which he is then proven to be), and doubly so if he is roled.
Your nr. 3 there could be applied in opposition of pretty much any case made on anything other than a direct find.
Yes. Except that in most cases, there is no mention of 'he might be roled', just 'he acts scummy because of so-and-so' which could be considered serious signalling.