[Galain]

Liosan, on 05 January 2012 - 10:37 AM, said:

Ok, my suspicions are on Emurlahn. Now, before reading this, there is nothing earth shattering here, but given the overall skill of mafia players on this site, there seldom is. Here is what I found.

Emurlahn adds this in the middle of faction speculation by others, no really addressing what is going on.

Emurlahn, on 03 January 2012 - 01:21 PM, said:

Well, we know that whatever has appeared in the market has to have been in someone's storage at the start, because no one's had time to make anything.
That helps figure some active roles.

Then he writes this in the middle of lynch/no lynch conversation. Again, it doesn't really address what's going on.

Emurlahn, on 03 January 2012 - 07:27 PM, said:

What are the CFs going to be like? Someone may have already asked this, but a quick scan didn't turn up the answer.

Here he comes on to lob an easy answer to Eloth's question about the snazzy armor comment.

Emurlahn, on 04 January 2012 - 12:07 AM, said:

The armor is probably for a) a buff to a military unit -or- a required item to use an ability or make a certain thing, like in the workshop etc. Either way it suggests whoever posted the contract is military aspected.

As far as connecting that to Serc, it's a probable as calling Olar Ethil a Thief for stealing Korv's ice cream post.



EDIT: to remove an emoticon that somehow appeared in the middle of my text

Here is some "speculation", but nothing substansive or really opinionated.

Emurlahn, on 04 January 2012 - 12:14 AM, said:

To further this thought, I am surprised no one has purchased any Weapons. This suggests to me that either the person that needs them has already spent their money on the Tax Collector title, or they haven't the funds required yet. I wonder who could have started with 15k denari

I realize that the Bazaar may seem secondary to the actual mafia playing, but it is interesting to me.

More of the same, with an apology for absence.

Emurlahn, on 04 January 2012 - 03:02 PM, said:

Sorry I'm lagging, work is being a pain w/ RL drama overlapping, so if someone could just shoot me...


OK, we had a big night that brought non-Nepeth down by 4.

The Djinn looks like a game-buster, so I'm guessing it's not for this turn, but future use.

The armor contract is withdrawn - so that makes me think it was a tool to help get Serc lynched, seems like it worked.

This one interested me because he comes out of nowhere (hasn't posted for a while) and inserts agreement.

Emurlahn, on 04 January 2012 - 05:09 PM, said:

Yes, that makes sense to me.

Then his next comment is about the bazaar, much later.

Emurlahn, on 04 January 2012 - 06:43 PM, said:

So prices on goods keep coming down and someone has bought weapons. Perhaps the Nepeth won't have such success with their next attack (or maybe they got stronger, who knows)

And here is his most substantial post IMO, which still doesn't really offer much of anything. Re-capping other's thoughts and making one observation in which he still doesn't wish to offer an opinion.

Emurlahn, on 05 January 2012 - 12:10 AM, said:

Path-Shaper, on 04 January 2012 - 10:11 AM, said:

It is Day 1. 46 minutes remaining

14 Players still alive: Anomandaris, D'riss, Eloth, Emurlahn, Galain, Hood's Path, Kaschan, Korvalain, Liosan, Olar Ethil, Omtose, Serc, Sukul Anandhu, Telas

8 votes to lynch, 7 votes to go to night.

7 Votes for Serc ( Kaschan, Galain, Omtose, Korvalain, D'riss, Hood's Path, Sukul Anandhu )

Players not voted: Anomandaris, Eloth, Emurlahn, Liosan, Olar Ethil, Serc, Telas

Ok, here is the train, with the exception of Serc on the end with the self-vote.

Not sure how much we can learn from a Day 1 faction train, but there you go.

Kaschan is dead, believed to have been the victim of a game mechanic for starting the train on Serc. The other victims of Nepeth attacks were not present on the train. I won't guess if that is significant or coincidence, just mentioning it here.

Also, there were no other candidates being voted.

EDIT: last line

Yes, this is a faction game and people are tiptoeing carefully as a result, but we DO have a scum team of sorts that wants to stay hidden. Emur's posting reeks of helpful, non-confrontational play which doesn't offer much in the way of real information. It's middle of the road and serves to establish a presence, but that's basically it.

Has SA mentions below, it certainly seems like he could be coasting.

That could be said of a number of people, though, first jumping to mind is Omtose.

[Sukul Ankhadu]

I went away and come back again. I can't constantly be online to post. I do have other thoughts but wanted a reaction from you first. I thought you'd respond with the no quotes but you only have 11, well 12 now so it wouldn't be hard for people to look at.

Oh *sigh* btw, it makes it an easy response and down plays my theory. Good one. I'll come up with posts and crossposts and refences if you like it won't take long.

crosspost - for Ano.

This post has been edited by Sukul Ankhadu: 05 January 2012 - 12:49 PM

[Anomandaris]

Lol, sure SA. That would be much more preferred .

[Galain]

Well, I can give my overall impressions if anyone is interested, but I don't know how helpful anyone else will find that.

I agreed earlier that Emur could be coasting. But so could Omtose, D'riss, OE, etc. The problem with calling people coasters this early in the game is that people could be hiding non-Nepeth power roles. In a typical game, that happens, but in this game I think the idea of laying low is pointless. We all have some kind of role, so laying low is only harming those of us trying to find Nepeth.

I'll be back in about 45.

[Anomandaris]

Galain, you could look at it as debasing you, or you could look at it as accusing you of deftly starting a train on someone you know isn't Nepeth. Or, should you not be Nepeth, you could see it as an exhortation to start building more solid cases and a warning not to pull the same crap on day 2.

I know I am singling you out, but you are a higher poster, and thus by default your thoughts are under higher scrutiny since we have more context to work with. We have learned that even just a simple lynch is not safe in this game, so I am not inclined to just go killing willy-nilly. I am currently posting more trying to sift through all this information and pick out people who stand out as either hiding or guiding, and you my friend are in category 2.

[Anomandaris]

Galain, on 05 January 2012 - 12:53 PM, said:

Well, I can give my overall impressions if anyone is interested, but I don't know how helpful anyone else will find that.

I agreed earlier that Emur could be coasting. But so could Omtose, D'riss, OE, etc. The problem with calling people coasters this early in the game is that people could be hiding non-Nepeth power roles. In a typical game, that happens, but in this game I think the idea of laying low is pointless. We all have some kind of role, so laying low is only harming those of us trying to find Nepeth.

I'll be back in about 45.

I agree that by laying low, we are harming ourselves. I think actually, with the idea that these roles carry on game to game and with the added complexity of people trying to navigate buying and selling goods so they can upgrade and put themselves in a better position next game, we have people lying low because they don't want to be lynched or killed in battle and would rather have a well stacked character next game as opposed to a dead well stocked character this game.

[Galain]

Fair enough, I was on the beginning of a train that wasn't Nepeth. I was pretty confident he was, as day 1 lynches go. And that wasn't based off my gut. I actually thought his postings made him sound like a Nepeth. And honestly, part of the reason I voted for Serc before I left was because everyone who was around seemed to agree that Serc was a viable lynch, and not as many agreed on Omtose. I wanted a lynch, so I went for the one I was more sure would be achieveable with less than 10 hours left.

If I were to follow my gut, Omtose would be the one I voted for. Both him and SA strike me as odd, for some reason. I'll have to look at their posts when I get back. My brain is telling me so far today that Emur seems a good vote, but that didn't work well for my yesterday so I'm going to investigate my gut feeling in a bit.

Okay, be back in a bit for real this time.

[Sukul Ankhadu]

Anomandaris, on 02 January 2012 - 02:40 PM, said:

*steals plush tiger*

And at least I have a slav...er...snuggle buddy.

You have a slave, you put it there for all to see. Why not try to come off as a thief, you know that stating you want to steal here is basically saying you are ri in a town versus scum game. People call you on it and you say that you were joking. It doesn't matter to me if your a thief because that would nominate you as PI, what bothers me is why would you say it? You are hinting at a role that is in the game which to me seems like your role is different than what you are suggesting which makes me worries your Nepeth going off the whole, "i'm a thief" angle.

Anomandaris, on 04 January 2012 - 12:54 PM, said:

Kind of hard to provide solid ideas without taking time to look back through everything (which takes time) as opposed to the easier quick snipe and deflection.

Eloth, on 02 January 2012 - 08:30 PM, said:

Yep, I agree, I would say not all the factions (or even most of them) are present here.

At a guess, to judge from the OP, I would say Nepeth army faction (rather than the court etc.) has representatives in this game; the Qadi of Loathing, Tarkin the Bitter-Hearted is here also; the White Foal Clan of the Khanates; and some people from the Houses of Agreement.

Of the last, I'm not sure whether to think that they're all from the House of Magic like Delat (who we know is here because of the scene where he bought the Tax Collector title), or representatives from various houses.

This above quote was interesting in light that Eloth was of the Night Faction as an orphan. Already trying to mislead us and remain in the background. I am still sifting through the prior day looking for other such things, just to see if anyone else was starting ideas that may be misinformation to their advantage.

Well when you break factions down you only mention the four as well. I don't think your are Khanate so you where holding back information as well. Your posts are big but there are not many of them which helps you blend in without being noticed.

Galain, on 03 January 2012 - 01:58 AM, said:

The Qadi can probably still vote. Not counting towards voting parity would just mean that if there are 11 people left, 5 nepeth, 1 qadi, the nepeth have parity because qadi doesn't count.

Or maybe he can't vote. But that seems too obvious.

Also something to note that a Qadi's vote counts since Serc hammered himself.

Why is this something of note? The Qadi was only one. No one would have known his role other than JA/Serc. Galain was just speculating.

Eloth, on 03 January 2012 - 10:21 AM, said:

Sukul Ankhadu, on 03 January 2012 - 10:07 AM, said:

Telas, on 03 January 2012 - 09:59 AM, said:

No. Just trying to draw out information. I think Qadi is one player as I've previously stated and the most powerful and mysterious.

Telas, on 03 January 2012 - 10:01 AM, said:

Seriously Sukul? I'm sorry, but you seem to be unnecessarily complicating this very much so.

You are trying to bait me to gain information. You aren't providing much of your own. I'm trying to work out what the set up is. I know the goal is to find and eliminate the Nepeth. That's simple. How many Nepeth? We won't know that until we work out how many factions are in the game and how many players within each faction. Mafia is never simple, so rather than attack why don't you offer a little more in the way of what you think?

And what, you think you can work that out right now? We've already had at least a half dozen attempts to work out possible factions (including myself) and, until the game progresses and people start falling, I don't think we can go further with the speculation than we already have.

It's pretty certain the Nepeth, White Foal, probs 2 of the Houses of Agreement, and a Qadi are involved. Distribution wise it's frankly anyone's guess at this point. I would assume that the first three are fairly even in terms of numbers. But as I said, things need to start happening before we can work out more. This role distribution posting is starting to look like going in circles.

Again, note worth in that Eloth knew there were other factions, and yet seems to be solidifying the concept of a 4 faction game.

So do you though when you specualte on factions.

Kaschan, on 03 January 2012 - 06:33 PM, said:

Serc, on 03 January 2012 - 06:12 PM, said:

Back.

My 2 cents on the settings:

The description that the Napeth with "if they achieve voting parity" sounds basically like the scum in a normal game. Everyone else has the same objective, to eliminate them, sounding like the standard "innos", the different factions being there just for flavor and storytelling.

This originally suggested a "normal game" balance of around 3 "scums" (in this case Napeth) and the rest different factions, the ratio of which is not that important for the victory conditions considering that they have a common objective.

However, this assumes that, like in normal games, the Napeth would be killing at night, and with some exceptions the rest wouldn't. I don't get this feeling based on the faction descriptions (i.e. I don't see why the Napeth would be the main "killers" in the game), so this balance might not hold. In such a case, maybe there could be more of the Napeth around, such as 4 or 5. With all this RPG stuff going around, I also get a feeling that NKs will be limited, because if 2 people die by day/night cycle, the game will be relatively short (5-6 days more or less), and this will limit the amount of "actions" and other cool stuff we can do.

That said, I also don't see the point of lynching today. Well, I could, but I honestly am not sure what to "look" for.

Strange stuff.

Okay I don't have a whole lot to go on and I really need to be doing something other than mafia right about now but I agree that we have to approach this game like a standard scum versus town game where voting for a lynch is a must for "town". As you are advocating that you don't see the point of a lynch then me thinks that you are a Nepath player and therefore need to go the way of the dodo.

vote Serc

Finally, just wanted to point out that Kaschan was the first to vote for the Qadi, and hence was nuked. That explains that death.

Anomandaris, on 04 January 2012 - 01:00 PM, said:

Sukul Ankhadu, on 04 January 2012 - 12:45 PM, said:

Anomandaris, on 02 January 2012 - 06:35 PM, said:

it also seems silly to have 2 thieves in a power struggle between the houses, khanate, and nepeth. I was thinking more of a three way struggle between these factions with another small wild card faction thrown in for kicks (would work well with a 14 person game)

Just throwing this out there Ano because I have just noticed this and realised you were playing.

You seem to know a little here, maybe this post coupled with what happened during Dusk may throw you in a bad light. Also you appear just after lynch and battle scene to make one comment on my reaction when you have said nothing of interest for the majority of the game. Yeah good one. Did you know what was going to happen?

You obviously don't read much without commenting. I have made some salient remarks on the bazaar, and also was with the rest of the people trying to figure out how many factions and people per faction were in play (btw, I now believe all seven factions are present, with 2 people in each factions except for the Qadi with 1 and the Nepeth with 3).

Well you've changed your tune here from thinking 4 factions to now 7 factions involved.

As for the thieving comment, actually I was just foolishly having some day 1 fun (saw the hobbes emoticon and thought "hey there is a Kalvin one two! I can be clever!" sorry for being clever).

"sorry for being clever" well as you were being clever then why not throw in a dupe role at the beginning of the game. "Hey guys i'm a thief I steal things", when you're secretly something different.

And finally, I don't see how commenting right after a battle scene is relevant (unless one is trying to subtly inject meta), especially when I was more interested in your excitement and lack of distress at how we may be now 3 vs 7 as opposed to 3 vs 11 in day 1. We have another day like this, and we are pushing on D-day's boundaries.

You also weren't around for the lynch and you have not voted yet. The nepeth need to stay away from the spotlight and I think sir that you could be playing this brilliantly, however, i'm willing to give you the benefit of the doubt at the moment as the list Galain gave are looking more scummy in my opinion.

edit have to edit colours.

This post has been edited by Sukul Ankhadu: 05 January 2012 - 01:26 PM

[Path-Shaper]

Since this is becoming part of the discussion (and since I have adressed this in a few PMs already, thus perhaps creating a situation where a few knew more than the remainder despite it being a general issue):

There is little guarantee that you'll get the same character in the next game that character appears in.

A lucky few might, especially if they did well and expressed they liked the character. But since this is going to be a series of games, I don't want meta entering it anymore than necessary.

If you automatically got the same character again, meta suddenly not just has a use to identify players and playstyles but it will also gain the additional benefit of identifying potential power players because their characters have returned (and by scrolling through previous SHs, you can easily read up on who had a few upgrades/ titles to their name).

Not to mention that players with new characters might automatically be relegated to playing newer, less advanced/powerful characters.

So yes, you might get your character back. If you like the one you gained, then by all means, play with the care that they might be yours again. I think that's truly awesome.

But no, you can't predict you will get that role again.

[Sukul Ankhadu]

Anomandaris, on 05 January 2012 - 12:59 PM, said:

Galain, on 05 January 2012 - 12:53 PM, said:

Well, I can give my overall impressions if anyone is interested, but I don't know how helpful anyone else will find that.

I agreed earlier that Emur could be coasting. But so could Omtose, D'riss, OE, etc. The problem with calling people coasters this early in the game is that people could be hiding non-Nepeth power roles. In a typical game, that happens, but in this game I think the idea of laying low is pointless. We all have some kind of role, so laying low is only harming those of us trying to find Nepeth.

I'll be back in about 45.

I agree that by laying low, we are harming ourselves. I think actually, with the idea that these roles carry on game to game and with the added complexity of people trying to navigate buying and selling goods so they can upgrade and put themselves in a better position next game, we have people lying low because they don't want to be lynched or killed in battle and would rather have a well stacked character next game as opposed to a dead well stocked character this game.

This ^

I agree with this. Without actually posting comments then they are harming our chances. They could die at night and then what did playing the game achieve? What would happen if the Nepeth win this game? They would probably be very powerful next game.

[Path-Shaper]

Quote

What would happen if the Nepeth win this game? They would probably be very powerful next game.

Victory/ loss does not make a faction stronger (other than it being likely of having survivors), it "merely" affects what the next game/ story will be about.

In this particular case:
* if the Nepeth lose, they will have to try and acquire water in a different way, through trade or politics - 0.66 will be about this effort.
* if the Nepeth win, they have achieved a storyline goal and factions that lost this game lose access to their profits - 0.66 will be about the struggle they face.

In both cases, the Nepeth armies are, for now, not returning


ToD 1.0 will build on the 0.33 and 0.66 outcome, but will be much more diverse than either of the minis and I'll probably take the opportunity to introduce a whole cast of different characters rather than import the survivors of the minis again.

This post has been edited by Path-Shaper: 05 January 2012 - 01:49 PM

[Sukul Ankhadu]

Galain, on 05 January 2012 - 01:05 AM, said:

Knowing my luck, Liosan was nepeth...

Can you explain this. It stands out to me, cause I don't understand it.

[Liosan]

I agree as well. The results of Day 1 showed a pretty steep mortality rate, odds are against taking your character into the next game even if we weren't considering PS's post just now. It's a faction game in terms of gaining something I suppose, and this game design is pretty ingenius, but it's still mafia and the goal of mafia is to win the game we're playing right now. And in this game, Nepeth are the scum team looking to win vote parity. The Winning Conditions are very straightforward.

[Liosan]

Sukul Ankhadu, on 05 January 2012 - 01:50 PM, said:

Galain, on 05 January 2012 - 01:05 AM, said:

Knowing my luck, Liosan was nepeth...

Can you explain this. It stands out to me, cause I don't understand it.

I interpreted it as he was speculating that if I had hammered Serc I might have died as well, which would be an additional loss for town. But the bad luck would be that were I in fact Nepath, that would have been good for town since I would have died by hammering Serc.*

However, how my faction and that lynch train has anything to do with HIS luck in particular makes the statement strange.



*for the record, I am good for town

[Galain]

Sukul Ankhadu, on 05 January 2012 - 01:50 PM, said:

Galain, on 05 January 2012 - 01:05 AM, said:

Knowing my luck, Liosan was nepeth...

Can you explain this. It stands out to me, cause I don't understand it.

If the theory is true, because Serc voted himself, he saved Liosan.

I was asserting that because of my notably poor luck of late, Liosan was probably a Nepeth and his vote on Serc would have killed off someone we actually want dead.

[Galain]

Liosan, on 05 January 2012 - 01:54 PM, said:

Sukul Ankhadu, on 05 January 2012 - 01:50 PM, said:

Galain, on 05 January 2012 - 01:05 AM, said:

Knowing my luck, Liosan was nepeth...

Can you explain this. It stands out to me, cause I don't understand it.

I interpreted it as he was speculating that if I had hammered Serc I might have died as well, which would be an additional loss for town. But the bad luck would be that were I in fact Nepath, that would have been good for town since I would have died by hammering Serc.*

However, how my faction and that lynch train has anything to do with HIS luck in particular makes the statement strange.



*for the record, I am good for town

Oh, well luck doesn't actually exist, I was using it as an abstract concept that my poor luck lately had affected the setup in the game in a weird time-travelling capacity.

[Sukul Ankhadu]

Galain, on 05 January 2012 - 01:58 PM, said:

Sukul Ankhadu, on 05 January 2012 - 01:50 PM, said:

Galain, on 05 January 2012 - 01:05 AM, said:

Knowing my luck, Liosan was nepeth...

Can you explain this. It stands out to me, cause I don't understand it.

If the theory is true, because Serc voted himself, he saved Liosan.

I was asserting that because of my notably poor luck of late, Liosan was probably a Nepeth and his vote on Serc would have killed off someone we actually want dead.

Thank you as I was reading through your posts I didn't understand that one. That's all.

[Galain]

No worries, I actually thought about how that would look strange after I posted, but no one said anything so I didn't bother to clarify.

[Anomandaris]

So, I've got five minutes till go time for my day, but I want to do a quick sum.

We have a Nepeth threat that we know still has all of its players after day 1. There is a possibility both battle deaths not related to the lynch were the result of Nepeth action, and thus we have possibly a maximum of 2 dusk killers among us that will knock off two more of our number this evening unless we get one of them. We have several factions in play that go beyond the four directly mentioned in the OP as proven by the CF for Eloth. We probably have a summoner among us because of the magic put up on the market. Our Tax Collector is still alive and well despite a high ranking person (the Qadi) being lynched. And finally, I assume from the surge of stuff put up on market we have either thieves or raiders successfully stripping others of their money and stuff.

That's the landscape I see currently, and remember this is a 5 min event, so please, take it with a grain of salt if I missed anything. See you all soon hopefully.

[Sukul Ankhadu]

Anomandaris, on 05 January 2012 - 02:02 PM, said:

So, I've got five minutes till go time for my day, but I want to do a quick sum.

We have a Nepeth threat that we know still has all of its players after day 1. There is a possibility both battle deaths not related to the lynch were the result of Nepeth action, and thus we have possibly a maximum of 2 dusk killers among us that will knock off two more of our number this evening unless we get one of them. We have several factions in play that go beyond the four directly mentioned in the OP as proven by the CF for Eloth. We probably have a summoner among us because of the magic put up on the market. Our Tax Collector is still alive and well despite a high ranking person (the Qadi) being lynched. And finally, I assume from the surge of stuff put up on market we have either thieves or raiders successfully stripping others of their money and stuff.

That's the landscape I see currently, and remember this is a 5 min event, so please, take it with a grain of salt if I missed anything. See you all soon hopefully.

Why do you think the tax collector is still alive? Is he crossed out on the Bazaar list or something?