[Rashan]

Galain, on 29 November 2011 - 10:31 PM, said:

Rashan, on 29 November 2011 - 06:03 PM, said:

I find a killer making a day 1 case odd to begin with. Presenting a case day 1 will lead to attention and to the chance of your case backfiring. I do think there will be a killer on the train, but not for the opening stages apart perhaps from the early joke vote. In that case, the symp might have made a case on the target of said vote in order to signal his masters that he's on their side.

You've laid down some theory in the abstract, but I don't see you applying this practically, you've just left it hanging. Why haven't you translated this thought experiment into some actual names?

It is not hard to see who I might mean: Kesso as the joke voter, Atrahal (or perhaps you, or both, now wouldn't that be a screamer, two symps outing themselves like that?) as the symp. Of you and Atrahal, you have certainly tried to establish thread control, which is a traditional symp style for a symp with the time on hand to post a lot and the confidence to try and run the thread.

But, and this is why I added no names: this is an excersize in theory and I'm not going to try and string someone up on a what if scenario.


EDITED: sentence clarified.

This post has been edited by Rashan: 30 November 2011 - 08:28 AM

[Anomandaris]

Rashan, on 29 November 2011 - 06:03 PM, said:

Omtose, on 29 November 2011 - 05:55 PM, said:

Tennes, on 29 November 2011 - 05:31 PM, said:

No i am far from convinced of the Thyr case as it is.
Its all stems from a weirdly worded post that could (or could just as easily not) be a slip up.
And even it it was a slip up he could have just as easily been a roled inno as scum.

While i agree that his play is somewhat erratic.
And maybe a bit strange....i still dont see that as a sign of guilt in of itself.

however.
What could be the case is that perhaps the people pushing for the kessoh lynch...did so in order to misdirect us from a thyr lynch.
That i can agree with.
So my thinking "yesterday" that HP's symping was too good to be true was most certainly correct.
But what if we take that a bit further?

What if HP was correct in his suspicions of Galain and Atrahal...at least half correct.
Not that they where the killers.
But that they are symps.
Or maybe one killer and a symp following his lead.

Thyr makes a mistake, and these guys finger another player with a fairly decent case on someone else.
And viola they derailed thyrs lynch with the help of unwitting folks such as myself who bought into their decent case.

It stands to reason that a symp is not going to put forth a crap case in order to redirect attention.
He needs a relatively good one.

I agree with this. There is zero chance that paired killers that have off thread comm are going to come on thread and make a case on the same person. Also, I find it more likely that the killer made the first weaker case and the symp, following his lead, went with the more elaborate drawn out case. I think this is a legit point by Tennes.

I find a killer making a day 1 case odd to begin with. Presenting a case day 1 will lead to attention and to the chance of your case backfiring. I do think there will be a killer on the train, but not for the opening stages apart perhaps from the early joke vote. In that case, the symp might have made a case on the target of said vote in order to signal his masters that he's on their side.

Well galain did start the game with a joke vote and out of the timing (votes) and the two players he is possibly following onto the train it might go either way. thyr and atrahal together and starting a train doesnt seem very much like killer behaviour if they had off thread comms its a fairly risky tactic to take. To have galain as symp and following them onto the train just borders on ridiculious.

I would guess if galain is symp it would be to only one of those two. I would be it 60/40 to atrahal rather than thyr though at the moment though, not sure why. There just seems to be more cohesion between the way atrahal and galain are playing.

[Rashan]

Anomandaris, on 30 November 2011 - 08:42 AM, said:

Rashan, on 29 November 2011 - 06:03 PM, said:

Omtose, on 29 November 2011 - 05:55 PM, said:

Tennes, on 29 November 2011 - 05:31 PM, said:

No i am far from convinced of the Thyr case as it is.
Its all stems from a weirdly worded post that could (or could just as easily not) be a slip up.
And even it it was a slip up he could have just as easily been a roled inno as scum.

While i agree that his play is somewhat erratic.
And maybe a bit strange....i still dont see that as a sign of guilt in of itself.

however.
What could be the case is that perhaps the people pushing for the kessoh lynch...did so in order to misdirect us from a thyr lynch.
That i can agree with.
So my thinking "yesterday" that HP's symping was too good to be true was most certainly correct.
But what if we take that a bit further?

What if HP was correct in his suspicions of Galain and Atrahal...at least half correct.
Not that they where the killers.
But that they are symps.
Or maybe one killer and a symp following his lead.

Thyr makes a mistake, and these guys finger another player with a fairly decent case on someone else.
And viola they derailed thyrs lynch with the help of unwitting folks such as myself who bought into their decent case.

It stands to reason that a symp is not going to put forth a crap case in order to redirect attention.
He needs a relatively good one.

I agree with this. There is zero chance that paired killers that have off thread comm are going to come on thread and make a case on the same person. Also, I find it more likely that the killer made the first weaker case and the symp, following his lead, went with the more elaborate drawn out case. I think this is a legit point by Tennes.

I find a killer making a day 1 case odd to begin with. Presenting a case day 1 will lead to attention and to the chance of your case backfiring. I do think there will be a killer on the train, but not for the opening stages apart perhaps from the early joke vote. In that case, the symp might have made a case on the target of said vote in order to signal his masters that he's on their side.

Well galain did start the game with a joke vote and out of the timing (votes) and the two players he is possibly following onto the train it might go either way. thyr and atrahal together and starting a train doesnt seem very much like killer behaviour if they had off thread comms its a fairly risky tactic to take. To have galain as symp and following them onto the train just borders on ridiculious.

I would guess if galain is symp it would be to only one of those two. I would be it 60/40 to atrahal rather than thyr though at the moment though, not sure why. There just seems to be more cohesion between the way atrahal and galain are playing.

Reading failure and/or improper debunking of my theory. Compare your underlined italicized text with my underlined bit.
Upon retrospection and careful examination you'll find that you talk about a very different scenario than I do, as my suggestion was expressedly about a symp following a killer joke vote (partly to serve the killers' cause and partly to signal their alignment), not about two killers in cahoots making cases. I have never in my long and prodigous career come across a symp role that can communicate off thread with killers.


I find it odd that you're posting a debunking of something that hasn't been posted to begin with. It sounds very much like damage control by a symp who hasn't had his morning coffee yet but spots their master being named as potential scum in a scenario. Since you steer away from Thyr, that's where I'll vote.

Vote Thyrllan.

[Tennes]

Osseric, on 30 November 2011 - 08:23 AM, said:

Mockra, on 30 November 2011 - 06:09 AM, said:

Is it me or are there a bunch of long quote blocks with no commentary after them on this page? It's such a tease.

Hood, on 30 November 2011 - 02:03 AM, said:

as you can see there was a almost a hour between there cases more then enough time for them to conlude and then mess up as to why the would go after the same person well that would have to be a mess up wouldn't it no right minded scum would both go after the same target unless they messed up
tennes the fact that people thought that I was kesso's symp speaks not to my symp hood but to their own lack of ability
mockra the only reason that scum would make the same case on a person is that they messed up it has happened before there for it is possible.
galain what else could you possibly say that you were in fact scum and that atrahal was your partner and that you had thought that you were suppose to make the case while atrahal thought that he was suppose to make the case you two still look scummy and much to chummy for my tastes
still getting caught up

I don't see how that lines up with your original story on this whole thing:

Hood, on 29 November 2011 - 03:02 AM, said:

So after going over the thread. Abit not with a fine tooth comb. But still I did read most everything. To my eyes this two posts are the most suspicious all game. When I see something like two people who just happen to make cases on the same person and post them a little while after each other. It seems to me that it smacks of people who can talk off thread agreeing that they need to go after ________ then both of them going after that same person at the same time. Of course they will say that Kesso was scummy enough to trip both of their radar at the same time. But none the less posting cases like this trips my radar.

Emphasis mine. So you're saying that from this first post you actually meant that they were two killers who got confused about who was supposed to make the case on Kesso? I guess you could interpret it that way but it reads to me like you suggested they were coordinating their attacks on purpose, not by mistake. And yeah, that is a ridiculous position because scum would probably not do that, but it just sounds to me like you made a shitty case and are trying to salvage it by changing the angle.

I'm looking hard, but I can't see the devastating contradiction that you can here, Mockra. Can you enlighten me? What I see is HP first saying that he feels that when two people make cases on the same person in quick succession, they're colluding off-thread and agreed to both attack that person....and then he says that they made a mistake by both making cases at the same time so their collusion was easier to spot by the likes of HP.

So where's the horrible contradiction? Both posts say that Atrahal and Galain agreed to attack Kessobahn - the later post just says they made a mistake in both attacking, with cases, at nearabouts the same time, when they should have come at Kesso from different angles. Have I missed something, because at the moment it seems to me that you're working quite hard to make something out of not much?

I just dont get how he oculd jump to those conclusions?
Simply because two people voted the same person, an hour apart?
How does he get to that point?


First he claims that they must be talking off thread and they had concluded to both go after the same person.
Then when this didnt fit after questioning from us, he changed it so that they now had to have made a mistake and both whent after the same guy when only one of them was meant to....hmmm
If the latter is the case...then why not mention this pivotal part of the theory in his original case?
smacks to me of someone just shoehorning stuff into his idea to make it fit after the fact.

If you look at it another way,
The first post/case was that killers where communicating....which implies that you can see that they have colluded and are working as a team otherwise how else come to the off thread comms?
The second post/case says that they fucked up?....wich implies that they wherent actually communicating that well...if thats the case...then how did you spot the original "behind the scenes" collusion?
Timing of cases alone?....bit of a stretch if you ask me.

anyways....here i am doing my own pet fucking hate and defending someone else by rubbishing yet another 3rd persons case...pfffft.
HP could still be right about those two. Just didnt like the way he went about his logic and it seemed forced.

This doesnt mean he is wrong.
But just because he has pulled this scenario out of thin air doesnt make it right either.
They could simply have both not liked how kessoh was playing at the time.
It does happen that more than one person finds a particular person scummy at any given time. happens often.

They could technically (and more likely) actually be a symp and a killer, with the symp adding to the killers vote with an even bigger case.
This is actually a more likely scenario, as what are the odds that two killers would actually mess things up on thread after discussing what they should do behind the scenes?
Both of HP's scenarios presented are much less likely than the two scenarios i put forward.

So what I find strange is why he decided to go with "2 killers" and the whole off thread comms instead of much more plausible ideas?
My original thinking was that he was symping someone....and kessoh sprang to mind yesterday.
In fact he could have been symping thyr too...but i am not entirely convinced of that.
I think he most likely thought his idea very grand and clever and put it forward regardless of their actually being more plausible ideas out there.
And in doing so roused suspicion from the likes of myself....i think

[Anomandaris]

Rashan, on 30 November 2011 - 08:51 AM, said:

Anomandaris, on 30 November 2011 - 08:42 AM, said:

Rashan, on 29 November 2011 - 06:03 PM, said:

Omtose, on 29 November 2011 - 05:55 PM, said:

Tennes, on 29 November 2011 - 05:31 PM, said:

No i am far from convinced of the Thyr case as it is.
Its all stems from a weirdly worded post that could (or could just as easily not) be a slip up.
And even it it was a slip up he could have just as easily been a roled inno as scum.

While i agree that his play is somewhat erratic.
And maybe a bit strange....i still dont see that as a sign of guilt in of itself.

however.
What could be the case is that perhaps the people pushing for the kessoh lynch...did so in order to misdirect us from a thyr lynch.
That i can agree with.
So my thinking "yesterday" that HP's symping was too good to be true was most certainly correct.
But what if we take that a bit further?

What if HP was correct in his suspicions of Galain and Atrahal...at least half correct.
Not that they where the killers.
But that they are symps.
Or maybe one killer and a symp following his lead.

Thyr makes a mistake, and these guys finger another player with a fairly decent case on someone else.
And viola they derailed thyrs lynch with the help of unwitting folks such as myself who bought into their decent case.

It stands to reason that a symp is not going to put forth a crap case in order to redirect attention.
He needs a relatively good one.

I agree with this. There is zero chance that paired killers that have off thread comm are going to come on thread and make a case on the same person. Also, I find it more likely that the killer made the first weaker case and the symp, following his lead, went with the more elaborate drawn out case. I think this is a legit point by Tennes.

I find a killer making a day 1 case odd to begin with. Presenting a case day 1 will lead to attention and to the chance of your case backfiring. I do think there will be a killer on the train, but not for the opening stages apart perhaps from the early joke vote. In that case, the symp might have made a case on the target of said vote in order to signal his masters that he's on their side.

Well galain did start the game with a joke vote and out of the timing (votes) and the two players he is possibly following onto the train it might go either way. thyr and atrahal together and starting a train doesnt seem very much like killer behaviour if they had off thread comms its a fairly risky tactic to take. To have galain as symp and following them onto the train just borders on ridiculious.

I would guess if galain is symp it would be to only one of those two. I would be it 60/40 to atrahal rather than thyr though at the moment though, not sure why. There just seems to be more cohesion between the way atrahal and galain are playing.

Reading failure and/or improper debunking of my theory. Compare your underlined italicized text with my underlined bit.
Upon retrospection and careful examination you'll find that you talk about a very different scenario than I do, as my suggestion was expressedly about a symp following a killer joke vote (partly to serve the killers' cause and partly to signal their alignment), not about two killers in cahoots making cases. I have never in my long and prodigous career come across a symp role that can communicate off thread with killers.


I find it odd that you're posting a debunking of something that hasn't been posted to begin with. It sounds very much like damage control by a symp who hasn't had his morning coffee yet but spots their master being named as potential scum in a scenario. Since you steer away from Thyr, that's where I'll vote.

Vote Thyrllan.

Reading failure? I think you are misreading my point or its not clear what i meant. I said that thyr and atrahal are unlikely to both be killers with off thread comms, not a killer and a symp with off thread comms. This is due to them both voting for kesso at the start of the train. I was agreeing with your reasoning that galain followed them as a symp, but am pointing out it could be either thyr or atrahal but not both.

[Tennes]

Anomandaris, on 30 November 2011 - 10:00 AM, said:

Reading failure? I think you are misreading my point or its not clear what i meant. I said that thyr and atrahal are unlikely to both be killers with off thread comms, not a killer and a symp with off thread comms. This is due to them both voting for kesso at the start of the train. I was agreeing with your reasoning that galain followed them as a symp, but am pointing out it could be either thyr or atrahal but not both.

not to add further confusion...but are you not actually refering to Galain and Atrahal , instead of thyr and atrahal?

I believe it was galain and atrahal who started the train with their two cases.

[Tennes]

aah wait...nevermind.


Thyr was the very 1st to vote for kessoh..now i see.

[Atrahal]

Wow... I chose not to respond to HP due to the patent ridiculousness of his claim. However, it doesn't seem like HP can let go of his pet theory and now is getting attention for his obstinacy. So allow me to chime in...

As Rashan pointed out, a symp/killer offline communication is unheard of. I could potentially see such a scenario in a more involved, higher level game (such as a faction game), but in a town vs scum, the standard is killer communicating with killer, if off thread communications are even happening in the first place. Even granting the possibility of symp/killer communications, how stupid would I and Galain have to be to make such a blatant linkage between ourselves in such a close succession of posts. I'm insulted.

More likely, HP is either attention seeking, pushing a pet theory to justify a hard-on for Galain and/or I, or he has a more malicious intent in trying to direct attention elsewhere (which would make sense if he was continuing to cover for Thyr, seeing that Thyr made it through day 1).

As for Ano's most recent addition, why would the whole scum team pile onto a day 1 vote! I mean really, why? I know that last game scum led town around by the nose, but even in that game, generally on day 1, scum don't step out of the soup of crapy jokes and spam to take the lead and begin calling the shots. Furthermore, if iirc, Thyr's vote on Kesso was in response to being called a multi-voter like Spite. He wasn't even making a case beyond the typical jokey OMGUS.

So yeah, not seeing it HP. But I would like to know why you are so sure there are killer/killer off thread communications. Do you have the inside scoop there?

[Atrahal]

Thyrllan, on 29 November 2011 - 03:30 PM, said:

Bollocks, Tiam was my main gut instinct for scum... I am bad at this

Also, this is interesting. Looking at it quickly, not much, just a comment of despair at a town death. But, considering he's commenting on this death first as opposed to Kesso (I don't think Thyr actually comments on Kesso's death despite his joke vote being at the beginning of the train...), could such a comment be construed as an attempt to cover for his choice for a NK? It would be a beautifully transparent attempt to distance himself from the kill, but in the context of everything else piling up against him, makes me more suspicious.

[Atrahal]

Damn crappy work, going to be late again. Ok, well, I think I will be back before the day's end, and since my first day choice didn't pan out, I want to hear more thoughts before I vote, so I will wait till I get back to vote this time. Good luck all.

[Osseric]

I think the reason why HP's ideas are being discussed is because Kessobahn turned out to be inno, which made the cases on him - as PS 'borrowed' from me - so much fart on the wind However, I do find it unlikely that killers would go to so much effort on day 1 to get someone lynched - especially when neither Galain nor Atrahal had received any pressure whatsoever. Now symps maybe.......

Anyway. For my money, if anyone on Kesso's train is scum, it's either Anomandaris or Ruse, and I favour Anomandaris (read my earlier post for a little more reasoning behind this).

The thing that I'm worried about with Thyrllan is that he is a roled inno. Despite his protestations that he was making a joke about his 'character', what worries me is that he didn't say 'character', he said 'role'. Of course, he could equally be scum. So in the end I'd be happy to vote for Thyrllan in order to clear that up and not let it gnaw on us

[Osseric]

And don't think I've forgotten about you, Mockra! You with the helpful day 1 summary! I would love it if my initial, immediate instincts in Mafia were one day proved to be right

[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 2, 14 hours and 46 minutes are left.

15 players alive: Anomandaris, Atrahal, Emurlahn, Galain, Gamelon, Hood's Path, Meanas, Mockra, Omtose, Osseric, Rashan, Ruse, Spite, Tennes, Thryllan

8 votes to lynch

3 vote Thyrllan: Spite, Meanas, Rashan
2 votes Meanas: Galain, Emurlahn



Players not voting: Anomandaris, Atrahal, Gamelon, Hood's Path, Mockra, Omtose, Osseric, Ruse, Tennes, Thryllan

[Osseric]

Erm, is it the weekend?!!!

[Path-Shaper]

Apparently.

[Thyrllan]

Osseric, on 30 November 2011 - 11:10 AM, said:

I think the reason why HP's ideas are being discussed is because Kessobahn turned out to be inno, which made the cases on him - as PS 'borrowed' from me - so much fart on the wind However, I do find it unlikely that killers would go to so much effort on day 1 to get someone lynched - especially when neither Galain nor Atrahal had received any pressure whatsoever. Now symps maybe.......

Anyway. For my money, if anyone on Kesso's train is scum, it's either Anomandaris or Ruse, and I favour Anomandaris (read my earlier post for a little more reasoning behind this).

The thing that I'm worried about with Thyrllan is that he is a roled inno. Despite his protestations that he was making a joke about his 'character', what worries me is that he didn't say 'character', he said 'role'. Of course, he could equally be scum. So in the end I'd be happy to vote for Thyrllan in order to clear that up and not let it gnaw on us

Wha... What's the diff? 'my character is bob dole' vs 'my role is bob dole' ? Everyone has a named role in this game, even if said role has no abilities. Am I wrong about that (and therefore some special case of an RI with a name)?

[Thyrllan]

Osseric, on 30 November 2011 - 02:01 PM, said:

Erm, is it the weekend?!!!

yay party!

[Osseric]

Thyrllan, on 30 November 2011 - 02:31 PM, said:

Osseric, on 30 November 2011 - 11:10 AM, said:

I think the reason why HP's ideas are being discussed is because Kessobahn turned out to be inno, which made the cases on him - as PS 'borrowed' from me - so much fart on the wind However, I do find it unlikely that killers would go to so much effort on day 1 to get someone lynched - especially when neither Galain nor Atrahal had received any pressure whatsoever. Now symps maybe.......

Anyway. For my money, if anyone on Kesso's train is scum, it's either Anomandaris or Ruse, and I favour Anomandaris (read my earlier post for a little more reasoning behind this).

The thing that I'm worried about with Thyrllan is that he is a roled inno. Despite his protestations that he was making a joke about his 'character', what worries me is that he didn't say 'character', he said 'role'. Of course, he could equally be scum. So in the end I'd be happy to vote for Thyrllan in order to clear that up and not let it gnaw on us

Wha... What's the diff? 'my character is bob dole' vs 'my role is bob dole' ? Everyone has a named role in this game, even if said role has no abilities. Am I wrong about that (and therefore some special case of an RI with a name)?

It's a small distinction I know, but it still worries me. Thyrllan, perhaps you could give some indication of where your suspicions lie, and why?

[Galain]

Sorry, I'm swamped at work today and don't really have much time to post. Will try to spend some time looking at things and posting something constructive later.

[Thyrllan]

Osseric, on 30 November 2011 - 02:38 PM, said:

Thyrllan, on 30 November 2011 - 02:31 PM, said:

Osseric, on 30 November 2011 - 11:10 AM, said:

I think the reason why HP's ideas are being discussed is because Kessobahn turned out to be inno, which made the cases on him - as PS 'borrowed' from me - so much fart on the wind However, I do find it unlikely that killers would go to so much effort on day 1 to get someone lynched - especially when neither Galain nor Atrahal had received any pressure whatsoever. Now symps maybe.......

Anyway. For my money, if anyone on Kesso's train is scum, it's either Anomandaris or Ruse, and I favour Anomandaris (read my earlier post for a little more reasoning behind this).

The thing that I'm worried about with Thyrllan is that he is a roled inno. Despite his protestations that he was making a joke about his 'character', what worries me is that he didn't say 'character', he said 'role'. Of course, he could equally be scum. So in the end I'd be happy to vote for Thyrllan in order to clear that up and not let it gnaw on us

Wha... What's the diff? 'my character is bob dole' vs 'my role is bob dole' ? Everyone has a named role in this game, even if said role has no abilities. Am I wrong about that (and therefore some special case of an RI with a name)?

It's a small distinction I know, but it still worries me. Thyrllan, perhaps you could give some indication of where your suspicions lie, and why?

Maybe it's just the oddly dark avatar but my gut says Tennes. He's very present, enough that no one will look at him and think "he's been hiding!". But simultaneously, he hasn't really committed to anything and most of his talk is pointing out flaws in other cases rather than making or supporting them himself. The exception is his vote where he gives off a big bit of content because he doesn't want to get any accusations of piling on. Plus he's middle of the train....