[ansible]

Grief, on 19 July 2011 - 12:14 AM, said:

Vote Twelve

While I've nothing against a shin vote, the case on him essentially amounts to him being under the radar, and he does seem to have been. I also don't like self votes much, and don't like that since he got pressure he hasn't really contributed much, which gives the impression of trying to let attention go elsewhere.

However, twelve is advocating play that to me, actively seems to sabotage our chances. He hasn't maintained much consistency from the start(other than that we should vote night-the reasoning for why doesn't seem very constant) and doesn't do much to back up his points.

Agree pretty strongly here. I've been on twelve's ass for awhile now, but I think it's time to be rid of his influence. This lynch should have gone through the first time anyway. The casual voting, bogus explanations, and deliberate ignorance -

Vote twelve

I also agree that things are going to change up pretty quickly as soon as MH dies. Eventually, whether we are sidetracked by the night-voters for God knows how long or not, we will have to choose lynch targets and won't have the fallback of the FKs. All of this business about people being cleared as innocent is going to go away and we can all be suspicious of each other again.

[Shinrei]

Path-Shaper, on 12 July 2011 - 05:22 PM, said:

Setup:

Day is 28 hours.
Night is 0 hours.
Mod-kill timer is 36 hours.
A full CF is in effect.

The town faction consists of two Yan Dynasty generals and all the southern regional leaders who have not rebelled. To win, the town must eliminate Meng Huo six times.

The scum faction consists of Meng Huo and the southern regional leaders who he has incited to rebel. To win, the scum must make it such that the town cannot possibly eliminate Meng Huo six times.

Meng Huo will randomly incite one player to rebel at the beginning of the game (this player remains their current role and also is Meng Huo). That player will designate a successor. When the Meng Huo player is eliminated, the successor will become the new rebel and Meng Huo and will designate their own successor. And so on, until one faction wins.

The Yan Dynasty generals are finder-killers. At night they can find out whether someone is or isn't Meng Huo. If they find Meng Huo they automatically kill him, up to a maximum of 3 times, after which they become RI. They cannot be designated as a successor by Meng Huo until after they have become RI.

Series Effects:

If Meng Huo wins, he will continue to rebel and harass the Yan Dynasty in Rot3K Chapter 6.


Game Map:

Spoiler

Map - Nanman Rebellion.jpg

Ok, here's what we know - There are two scum, and two hunter killers. There appears to be no killer ability for Meng Huo, so it becomes a game of numbers when deciding when to lynch and when to let the hunter-killers do their job.

Here is my speculation:

Quote

Meng Huo will randomly incite one player to rebel at the beginning of the game (this player remains their current role and also is Meng Huo). That player will designate a successor. When the Meng Huo player is eliminated, the successor will become the new rebel and Meng Huo and will designate their own successor. And so on, until one faction wins.

This is very carefully worded, something I think D'rek is good at (healing catapults notwithstanding).

I think the hunter killers CANNOT FIND AND KILL the successor. Because successor-MH remains in their current role, and the wording indicates that only the successor designates the next Meng Huo. Meaning, if the hunter killers can only find the original Meng Huo, that put their odds of selecting the right person as even slimmer. This is why I can suspect Ment, because a Hunter-Killer won't identify him as the 'original' MH, and it makes town's job harder because the pool of suspects will always be everyone minus one, not minus two.

I think if we lynch the "symp" MH, their designated successor becomes the next "symp" MH.

Quote

The Yan Dynasty generals are finder-killers. At night they can find out whether someone is or isn't Meng Huo. If they find Meng Huo they automatically kill him, up to a maximum of 3 times, after which they become RI. They cannot be designated as a successor by Meng Huo until after they have become RI.

I think the finder-killers (hunter-killers, whatever), are paired and they have a maximum of 3 night kills. D'rek keeps using "they", and I think it is a collective "they." Meaning we, the town, HAVE to lynch the other three. That's why it would be fucking stupid for the other finder to out themselves, and anyone who has kept asking for it should be lynched. Interpreting this as two FK's(HK's) is wrong IMO.

This line of thinking makes me believe we must lynch, and doing night is going to screw us.

Go ahead and tell me why I'm wrong, but I think this setup makes a modicum of sense.

[Shinrei]

remove vote

[Shinrei]

The one thing that is purely speculation and is probably wrong is that the HK's cannot find the successor - but it is not an impossible wrinkle to the setup.

[Mentalist]

we are assuming that the successor are told who they are. why?

[Grief]

Shinrei, on 19 July 2011 - 03:30 AM, said:

The one thing that is purely speculation and is probably wrong is that the HK's cannot find the successor - but it is not an impossible wrinkle to the setup.

I do disagree on this point.

"also is Meng Huo"

Suggests to me that the finder-killers would work on the rebel or any successor that becomes a rebel, because they are treated as MH.

I'm not sure it matters that much though, since our optimal strategy is to lynch MH 3 times, then let the FKs work through till they get their 3 kills. It doesn't matter how long it takes them, as MH doesn't grow in power over time like a cult would, or reduce our numbers like a killer. The only way for him to achieve win condition is for us to lynch wrongly often enough that we cannot kill him the required number of times.

[Shinrei]

But you see why I'm suspicious of anyone calling for the other finder to out themselves, no? that's actually a real reason to vote for Gust Hubb rather than OMGUS (in my case )

[Grief]

I read your post as meaning couldn't find them after they'd rebelled.

Not sure whether the successor would be told. I'd just assumed they wouldn't be, but that's probably just because MH struck me as an different kind of FM mechanic. The OP doesn't seem to make it clear one way or another.

[ansible]

Shinrei, on 19 July 2011 - 03:47 AM, said:

But you see why I'm suspicious of anyone calling for the other finder to out themselves, no? that's actually a real reason to vote for Gust Hubb rather than OMGUS (in my case )

Patience...

[Grief]

Shinrei, on 19 July 2011 - 03:28 AM, said:

I think the finder-killers (hunter-killers, whatever), are paired and they have a maximum of 3 night kills. D'rek keeps using "they", and I think it is a collective "they." Meaning we, the town, HAVE to lynch the other three. That's why it would be fucking stupid for the other finder to out themselves, and anyone who has kept asking for it should be lynched. Interpreting this as two FK's(HK's) is wrong IMO.

This line of thinking makes me believe we must lynch, and doing night is going to screw us.

Go ahead and tell me why I'm wrong, but I think this setup makes a modicum of sense.

Maximum of three NKs between them is something there was a fair bit of discussion over a bit ago. Basically it reached the same conclusion that the three kills must be shared. If it was three each I'm pretty sure it'd be impossible for MH to win. Whether they are a pair (as in, lovers) or individual(with a total number of kills between them) is up for debate. Most seem to have settled on individual. I'm not sure if Tattersail has claimed one way or the other, but I believe individual is implied (since iirc he has expressed uncertainty about the other finders find).

So, I'm certainly agreed with must lynch at some point. The debate is when. Going night doesn't screw us like it usually does, since MH doesn't have traditional scum night powers. However, the finders killing before we lynch is bad for us. We get the maximum number of lynch attempts before D-day by us lynching MH three times then having them kill him off.

Shinrei, on 19 July 2011 - 03:47 AM, said:

But you see why I'm suspicious of anyone calling for the other finder to out themselves, no? that's actually a real reason to vote for Gust Hubb rather than OMGUS (in my case )

My initial reaction here was pretty similar. GH has called for a finder reveal more than anyone else(though others are guilty) and traditionally that's not an inno thing to do. I'm not really sure in this case though. If the finders are individual, we'd get a decent amount of info from a reveal here. It'd also most likely verify tattersail(since we potentially atm have a fake reveal and two other individual finders sitting thinking he's legit). They're also currently immune to becoming MH. The only real downside I can see to a finder reveal us that having a hidden finder could save us later if we screw up and MH gets majority. However, the situation where this would matter is very unlikely. First, scum would need to get a majority(unlikely enough as it's more likely to become evident when it's even teams, due to lynch blocking) but with it still being possible for inno to win. Since MH seems likely to have a reasonably small team (for balance reasons), at the point where he gets a majority, there aren't going to be many people left to jump to, so there being enough for innos to still kill him more than maybe once or twice isn't that likely. Moreover, if he gets a majority, we'd still probably have two finders, because he can't kill. So a hidden one isn't that beneficial since he's only going to be able to lynch one and one is already revealed. I doubt the situation would last more than a day (working from my assumption of a small team).

My instinct is that a finder reveal is bad, and I've discouraged it so far. But I find I struggle to justify why it's bad logically, and while my instinct is that it is, my extinct has been honed on a lot of games where the finder revealing would be terrible for innos, and so asking at all would be really damn scummy.

I'm not really sure how bad it would be for the other finder to reveal, but I don't think it'd be that bad. Otoh, I'm not going to call for a reveal. I'm happy just to leave it to their judgement. I think if they had any info they thought would be really helpful, they would have revealed by now, and so calling on a reveal because we can't operate without the info is just silly.

[Shinrei]

I actually really like that post, very well reasoned.

I would say that Tattersail has been circumspect, as he should be and I agree with you that instinct is to give scum as little info as possible, which is why my gut says "don't reveal". I'm not sure where it has been implied that they are individuals though.

[Grief]

Tattersail, on 16 July 2011 - 09:59 AM, said:

You are Ma Zhong, General who Tames the South, of the Yan Dynasty.

You are currently of the Town.

I'm not going to word how I received the information because if a second finder reveals then i will ask them what PS said once a person has been investigated. That way it will hold more weight and I could belive them without finding them

If the finders were lovers there would be no need for anything like this.

[Tattersail_]

HO is clear. I'm going to read through thread now.

[Tattersail_]

Grief, on 18 July 2011 - 08:35 PM, said:

Tattersail, on 18 July 2011 - 08:00 PM, said:

FFS. FF bloody S. Whatever the result I reckon we start tomorrow with a quick lynch of Shin. If everyone was prepared to do it tonight then why not tomorrow, lets gets a good bit of information going so we can actually make this game a bit exciting. I don't mind lynching an innocent as long as we get there in the end. I would prefer to try and lynch MH before we find him. Otherwise every bloody day is going to be long and frustrating. With a small pool of players it will be easier for me and finder number 2 to find MH and therefore bring it home for town.

Voting night wastes the chance to lynch. It also risks having the finders waste a kill. That doesn't mean we have to rush tomorrow, wasting time to get information from debate.

I think we should lynch. But there is no need to start planning a speed lynch on someone before they have a chance to defend themselves.

I see your point, but now we have a pool of players that we know are not MH, so even a random lynch now won't be as random as a couple of days ago. Shin is a good a case as any. If you look back at the weekend, Shin did not post for a while. The minute he gets two votes he appeared almost straightaway to calmly state he'll vote for himself if it would help town, his response was defeatest which threw a few people including me at the time off his scent. I was ready to explode at the timing of his post, but looking back it was a scummy move at the time.

[Tattersail_]

twelve, on 18 July 2011 - 09:04 PM, said:

ansible, on 18 July 2011 - 08:56 PM, said:

twelve, on 18 July 2011 - 08:51 PM, said:

Having the finders clear players who we think are innocent is the only way to know for sure they are in fact innocent. I don't want to focus lynching players when we are so far off that the real scum is hiding in the presumed innocent pool. I'm back to the you only get 5 strikes and you are out aspect of the game. But whatever.

I switched my vote from night because I thought that we were still 2 votes short of actually getting a night vote

remove vote

vote night

On the off chance that we actually didn't get a night vote and PS is sitting back laughing at us for not getting the correct number of votes needed for an action.

I'm just curious - do you understand that someone can only be "innocent" until MH dies?

That is the whole basis for my suggestion of voting night. Trying to play like "normal" is why we are in this clusterfuck of a mess to begin with. Looking at peoples past posts after we find MH is pointless. We are back to day 1 spam all over again. That way if we install a strategy that can bypass some of it why wouldn't we?

and what if we hit MH through a finder? That is not good. Not when we have already got the pool of people who he could be down. That just makes all my and the other FK's finds pointless because we are back to day one all over again. I think we should lynch now until we hit MH. There is no point me finding again until this happens.

[Shinrei]

I just went back and looked up how things progressed, and I guess it does look sorta scummy in terms of timing, but if you look at the time stamp on my post and figure out the timezones, you'll see I posted that at something like 11pm on Sunday night, which is when I got home from Tokyo. And you'll notice, I immediatly disappeared again after that single post for hours, which is indicative of me going to bed.

[Tattersail_]

Gust Hubb, on 18 July 2011 - 10:47 PM, said:

Well, I said I would wait for Tattersail to give us the scoop, but since we still don't have a MH hit, I think I'm just going to lay down the:

VOTE SHINREI

And carry on from there. After the clusterfuck that was this weekend (could have gone faster if (a) people had just voted night FFS and (b ) the other finder revealed so we could at least have another person of the potentials for lynching list) I just want to see some movement.

And if that means lynching, let's get it done. I got my way, so now let's carry on with the strategy and begin hunting down MH.

And my sympathies P-S. No worries.

Edit: correcting stupid sunglasses emoticon usurping my (b ) and deleted stupid double post from when my fucking internet crashed, again.

Because MH does not have a kill, and because the other finder at this stage discounting 4? people who are innocent at this stage then now I am wondering why he doesn't reveal. What would be the reason for him not to reveal? A guard against recruitment? Is that it? We can double up on our innocent finds and therefore reduce the lynch pool, come on finder number two help us out witht his lynch today.

[Khellendros]

Shin complains about being singled out for not posting when there was nothing to post about, and then manages to post a couple of thoughtful comments letting us know where he stands, now he's been prodded into it. If we hadn't started voting for him, would we have got anything like that anytime soon?

Anyway, I am more than happy to switch to twelve if that's the direction the lynch vote is going.

Re the second finder reveal: My gut instinct is for the finder to remain hidden, but I do wonder if my gut (as it so often is) is wrong this time. I'm not going to start calling for the finder to reveal, and if they want to continue to stay anonymous, that's cool, but I certainly won't be jumping on their backs if they do reveal either.

[Tattersail_]

Shinrei, on 19 July 2011 - 03:28 AM, said:

Path-Shaper, on 12 July 2011 - 05:22 PM, said:

Setup:

Day is 28 hours.
Night is 0 hours.
Mod-kill timer is 36 hours.
A full CF is in effect.

The town faction consists of two Yan Dynasty generals and all the southern regional leaders who have not rebelled. To win, the town must eliminate Meng Huo six times.

The scum faction consists of Meng Huo and the southern regional leaders who he has incited to rebel. To win, the scum must make it such that the town cannot possibly eliminate Meng Huo six times.

Meng Huo will randomly incite one player to rebel at the beginning of the game (this player remains their current role and also is Meng Huo). That player will designate a successor. When the Meng Huo player is eliminated, the successor will become the new rebel and Meng Huo and will designate their own successor. And so on, until one faction wins.

The Yan Dynasty generals are finder-killers. At night they can find out whether someone is or isn't Meng Huo. If they find Meng Huo they automatically kill him, up to a maximum of 3 times, after which they become RI. They cannot be designated as a successor by Meng Huo until after they have become RI.

Series Effects:

If Meng Huo wins, he will continue to rebel and harass the Yan Dynasty in Rot3K Chapter 6.


Game Map:

Spoiler

Map - Nanman Rebellion.jpg

Ok, here's what we know - There are two scum, and two hunter killers. There appears to be no killer ability for Meng Huo, so it becomes a game of numbers when deciding when to lynch and when to let the hunter-killers do their job.

Here is my speculation:

Quote

Meng Huo will randomly incite one player to rebel at the beginning of the game (this player remains their current role and also is Meng Huo). That player will designate a successor. When the Meng Huo player is eliminated, the successor will become the new rebel and Meng Huo and will designate their own successor. And so on, until one faction wins.

This is very carefully worded, something I think D'rek is good at (healing catapults notwithstanding).

I think the hunter killers CANNOT FIND AND KILL the successor. Because successor-MH remains in their current role, and the wording indicates that only the successor designates the next Meng Huo. Meaning, if the hunter killers can only find the original Meng Huo, that put their odds of selecting the right person as even slimmer. This is why I can suspect Ment, because a Hunter-Killer won't identify him as the 'original' MH, and it makes town's job harder because the pool of suspects will always be everyone minus one, not minus two.

I think if we lynch the "symp" MH, their designated successor becomes the next "symp" MH.

Quote

The Yan Dynasty generals are finder-killers. At night they can find out whether someone is or isn't Meng Huo. If they find Meng Huo they automatically kill him, up to a maximum of 3 times, after which they become RI. They cannot be designated as a successor by Meng Huo until after they have become RI.

I think the finder-killers (hunter-killers, whatever), are paired and they have a maximum of 3 night kills. D'rek keeps using "they", and I think it is a collective "they." Meaning we, the town, HAVE to lynch the other three. That's why it would be fucking stupid for the other finder to out themselves, and anyone who has kept asking for it should be lynched. Interpreting this as two FK's(HK's) is wrong IMO.

This line of thinking makes me believe we must lynch, and doing night is going to screw us.

Go ahead and tell me why I'm wrong, but I think this setup makes a modicum of sense.

I think the finders can identify who is with MH though. We kill MH if we find him but if we find the other I think we'll know as well.

[Tattersail_]

the other finder should reveal now why there is no pressure to minimise the clusterfuck that will happen later when someone tries to fake reveal. I see no danger to the finder at the moment, can someone point me towards that danger?