[Vengeance]

Khellendros, on 13 July 2011 - 02:14 PM, said:

It's problem either way. Say we vote for night each time until the FKs get MH three times. That leaves 9 of us into which MH could jump. 1 in 9 is pretty bad odds of lynching the correct person.

But then, if we do lynch every day, the danger is that by the time FKs kill MH three times, we may not have lynched him even once, or his symps, and then there's only a few of us left and MH is very close to winning the game by making it impossible for us to lynch him off.

Well I figure that we have 5 lynches that we can do with out finding the MH once.

Here is another thing that I just thought of. The MH doesn't know his symps and he can jump into them. Doing so will increase the towns odds for winning and lower the MH's. Once again names from the map are going to be very important.

[Vengeance]

Khellendros, on 13 July 2011 - 02:16 PM, said:

We wouldn't necessarily have to wait ages. Just get enough of us on thread to continually vote for night over and over again until the FKs have killed MH 3 times?

Hopefully while the finders are also on. Otherwise it is useless. So I guess you want the finders to reveal. There is a chance that Drek made it so that they couldn't.

[Khellendros]

Venge may be right in that it's still less risky to be randomly lynching now than it is toward the end of the game.

On the other hand, if we wait until the FKs are used up, then we don't have to worry about accidentally lynching them. We instead have an 11% chance of lynching MH (instead of 8% as right now), which isn't too much better, BUT it's without any 17% danger of killing an FK.

[Vengeance]

So I guess it depends on how you want to play the game. In a game with people in different time zones it is going to be hard to speed to night and making sure that the FK have there targets in.

[Khellendros]

Vengeance, on 13 July 2011 - 02:19 PM, said:

Khellendros, on 13 July 2011 - 02:16 PM, said:

We wouldn't necessarily have to wait ages. Just get enough of us on thread to continually vote for night over and over again until the FKs have killed MH 3 times?

Hopefully while the finders are also on. Otherwise it is useless. So I guess you want the finders to reveal. There is a chance that Drek made it so that they couldn't.

I did originally think of suggesting the finders just reveal. But thinking about it further I came to the conclusion it could make the game a whole lot messier, with symps and/or MH also pretending they're FKs - then FKs investigating each other instead of the ones pretending to be FKs, and so on. I don't know - what do you think?

[Vengeance]

In the interests of first day lynches I noticed that Kurt hasn't posted yet. Anyone else up for a lynch before he posts.

[Khellendros]

And I forgot entirely that the FKs would have to get their decisions to PS before day ended. It has been a while since I've played

[Grief]

I'm leaning towards early lynches.

If MH gains majority but FKs still have kills, we can still win if they're not known.
If the FKs kill three times at the start, they revert to RI, so lose the finds as well, which are more likely to be useful with a smaller player pool.
Once they have killed three times, the number of people MH can jump to increases.
I can't really see any advantages to them being used early, as we still have to lynch MH anyhow.

[Vengeance]

Khellendros, on 13 July 2011 - 02:25 PM, said:

Vengeance, on 13 July 2011 - 02:19 PM, said:

Khellendros, on 13 July 2011 - 02:16 PM, said:

We wouldn't necessarily have to wait ages. Just get enough of us on thread to continually vote for night over and over again until the FKs have killed MH 3 times?

Hopefully while the finders are also on. Otherwise it is useless. So I guess you want the finders to reveal. There is a chance that Drek made it so that they couldn't.

I did originally think of suggesting the finders just reveal. But thinking about it further I came to the conclusion it could make the game a whole lot messier, with symps and/or MH also pretending they're FKs - then FKs investigating each other instead of the ones pretending to be FKs, and so on. I don't know - what do you think?

I would discourage the FK's from revealing unless they absolutely need to. Even then I would assume that it was a symp making some kind of play. I do expect that we will see some of that later on in the game though. This type of game does seem to scream fake reveals and counter reveals.

[Vengeance]

Grief, on 13 July 2011 - 02:28 PM, said:

I'm leaning towards early lynches.

If MH gains majority but FKs still have kills, we can still win if they're not known.
If the FKs kill three times at the start, they revert to RI, so lose the finds as well, which are more likely to be useful with a smaller player pool.
Once they have killed three times, the number of people MH can jump to increases.
I can't really see any advantages to them being used early, as we still have to lynch MH anyhow.

I figure that if we can't lynch MH at least once in 5 lynches then we have to stop lynching when there are 7 remaining players left.

[Vengeance]

Ok I have to do some other work. Carry on gentlemen.

[HiddenOne]

You guys have covered a lot of ground in the last little while.

Remove Vote


I think we should lynch, but make every effort to work a case if possible.

Back later

[Tattersail_]

Grief, on 13 July 2011 - 01:46 PM, said:

I was puzzling over this last night.

OP states we have to kill MH 6 times. The wording of the finder killer role:

The Yan Dynasty generals are finder-killers. At night they can find out whether someone is or isn't Meng Huo. If they find Meng Huo they automatically kill him, up to a maximum of 3 times, after which they become RI. They cannot be designated as a successor by Meng Huo until after they have become RI.

Suggests that the maximum of 3 only applies when they actually find MH.

Meng Huo will randomly incite one player to rebel at the beginning of the game (this player remains their current role and also is Meng Huo). That player will designate a successor. When the Meng Huo player is eliminated, the successor will become the new rebel and Meng Huo and will designate their own successor. And so on, until one faction wins.

The successor only becomes a rebel on the elimination of MH, so we're not looking at a cult as such.

Indeed, the game seems stacked against MH. The finders can kill a total of 6 times between them, we only need to kill MH 6 times. To win the scum have to make it impossible for us to kill MH six times, but the rules don't show the scum as having any way to decrease our numbers. If the generals kill 5 people we're down to 7 people with a max of 2 being MH.

I'm pretty sure I've missed something(or there is something in game to stop it working like this), because as far as I can see town wins just by waiting, which I doubt to be the case.

I read it as they can only kill 3 times.

[twelve]

Khellendros, on 13 July 2011 - 11:58 AM, said:

12 players. One is Meng Huo. Another is his designated successor. Two are finder-killers. The rest are RI.

I assume that if the designated successor is lynched before Meng Huo, then MH selects someone else? Does MH incite someone new to rebel every night, or just one person (their successor)? I assume the latter, as it doesn't say anything about MH continuing to select further people in the OP.

So we have a 1/12 chance of lynching MH. The finder-killers have a 1/6 chance of finding Meng Huo, as there's two of them. So, in that respect, they have a much better chance of finding MH than we do of lynching him. HOWEVER, if we lynch someone, even if they're not MH, that leaves them with 2/11 chance of finding MH, which is even better odds for them. So at this moment I'm more swayed towards lynching than night.

But you are forgetting the most important aspect of killing Meng Huo. You have to do it 6 times!!! There are 12 players. That means that half the playing field will at some point need to be MH for town to win. Sure by lynching someone you give the finders a better chance of finding Meng Huo unless you end up killing a finder by mistake. At that point it would give Meng Huo that much greater advantage to make it until the end.

[Khellendros]

The following hypothetical scenario is purely there for me to try and highlight another potential danger of investigations/lynching.

Day 1: Lynch RI.

FKs have 2/11 chance, they find nothing.

Day 2: Lynch RI

In this ideal scenario, the FKs investigate two different people again. That is, they don't investigate someone who's already been investigated the previous day by the other FK. In that (I repeat, ideal) scenario, they actually have a 2/8 chance of finding MH. BUT they find nothing.

Day 3: Lynch MH, hooray!

And the FKs, investigating different people again, have a great 2/5 chance, right? Wrong! Because MH could be anyone again. So it goes back up to a 2/9 chance, which is worse than the 2/8 chance of the previous day.

While sorta interesting, and I think useful to be aware of the potential dangers, I don't want to focus on this, as there really are too many variables.


The only thing really worth considering is if we're prepared to risk lynching an FK while they're still out there. Doing so greatly reduces their odds of finding MH, as the number of investigations per night is potentially halved. That having been said, the chances of hitting an FK now are less than they would be with fewer players. So perhaps now is the safest time to lynch.

[Khellendros]

twelve, on 13 July 2011 - 02:58 PM, said:

Khellendros, on 13 July 2011 - 11:58 AM, said:

12 players. One is Meng Huo. Another is his designated successor. Two are finder-killers. The rest are RI.

I assume that if the designated successor is lynched before Meng Huo, then MH selects someone else? Does MH incite someone new to rebel every night, or just one person (their successor)? I assume the latter, as it doesn't say anything about MH continuing to select further people in the OP.

So we have a 1/12 chance of lynching MH. The finder-killers have a 1/6 chance of finding Meng Huo, as there's two of them. So, in that respect, they have a much better chance of finding MH than we do of lynching him. HOWEVER, if we lynch someone, even if they're not MH, that leaves them with 2/11 chance of finding MH, which is even better odds for them. So at this moment I'm more swayed towards lynching than night.

But you are forgetting the most important aspect of killing Meng Huo. You have to do it 6 times!!! There are 12 players. That means that half the playing field will at some point need to be MH for town to win. Sure by lynching someone you give the finders a better chance of finding Meng Huo unless you end up killing a finder by mistake. At that point it would give Meng Huo that much greater advantage to make it until the end.

Twelve, perhaps you should read the rest of the thread before commenting on that. Suffice to say, we've moved on and covered ground some

[ansible]

I'm around and reading up.

[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 1. 15 hours and 48 minutes remaining
12 Players still alive: ansible, Grief, Gust Hubb, HiddenOne, Khellendros, Kurt Montandon, Mentalist, Roldom, Shinrei, Tattersail, twelve, Vengeance

7 votes to lynch, 6 votes to go to night.

1 Vote for Vengeance ( Shinrei )
1 Vote for twelve ( Tattersail )
1 Vote for Night ( twelve )

Players not voted: ansible, Grief, Gust Hubb, HiddenOne, Khellendros, Kurt Montandon, Mentalist, Roldom, Vengeance

[Path-Shaper]

Note: If you want to use a plan that involves repeated night voting, the finders can put in multiple provisionals ahead of time to speed things up.

Double Note: Anyone can reveal anything they like in this game.

[twelve]

Grief, on 13 July 2011 - 01:46 PM, said:

I was puzzling over this last night.

OP states we have to kill MH 6 times. The wording of the finder killer role:

The Yan Dynasty generals are finder-killers. At night they can find out whether someone is or isn't Meng Huo. If they find Meng Huo they automatically kill him, up to a maximum of 3 times, after which they become RI. They cannot be designated as a successor by Meng Huo until after they have become RI.

Suggests that the maximum of 3 only applies when they actually find MH.

Meng Huo will randomly incite one player to rebel at the beginning of the game (this player remains their current role and also is Meng Huo). That player will designate a successor. When the Meng Huo player is eliminated, the successor will become the new rebel and Meng Huo and will designate their own successor. And so on, until one faction wins.

The successor only becomes a rebel on the elimination of MH, so we're not looking at a cult as such.

Indeed, the game seems stacked against MH. The finders can kill a total of 6 times between them, we only need to kill MH 6 times. To win the scum have to make it impossible for us to kill MH six times, but the rules don't show the scum as having any way to decrease our numbers. If the generals kill 5 people we're down to 7 people with a max of 2 being MH.

I'm pretty sure I've missed something(or there is something in game to stop it working like this), because as far as I can see town wins just by waiting, which I doubt to be the case.

Meng Huo is described as scum. I don't know about you but to me scum = killer. We are going to be losing players each day I'm sure of it.