[Grief]

I also think we should vote night. Not sure if we should go for 2 finds or 1. 2 would be great if we pulled it off, but gives a 50/50 chance of hitting MH, which we don't wanna do, because it really restricts our ability to use the finders again tommorow(because if we hit MH tonight then any further hits really hurt our odds because the finders become RI, so the risk greatly increases).

On the other hand, we've not been great with lynches thus far and don't have much more than guesswork to go on, so we might not win without taking more of a risk.

[ansible]

So last night I had an epiphany of sorts about the FKs. I've been a big proponent of saving one until the end because it allows town to win if 2 players are left over at the end. One possible situation like this would be 4 players left, and we lynch an inno - next night we lynch MH, and two players are left, making the Fk the final MH kill... however, this only works if there is only 1 general. Since Tatts and I are both alive and always "cleared" until the FKs are gone, we will never be lynch targets if we save the FK until the end, which means we will probably be the last two players alive.... Which means that MH would not be able to jump into one of us when we get the 3rd MH lynch, leaving 2 players - in the example it would be one RI who would have become MH and a general, but instead there will be two generals, immune to the jump, which means we are unable to kill MH for the 6th time. To sum up, it almost seems like saving the final FK until the end would be worthless and we should use them all now to increase our chances of lynching MH.

Does that make sense, or am I crazy?

[ansible]

My suggestion in that case would still be to use 1 at a time to narrow things down and then lynch, alternating till we basically have to lynch correctly to win, I guess.

[Tattersail_]

well I have a provisional in on Ment tonight I think. Who is cleared this round? GH you and me? Or is Everyone back on the table?

[ansible]

Although... if we use the last FK then Tatts and I both become targets for succession, although it may be unlikely that MH targets us, since he thinks we should be immune... After the last FK, if we need 1 more lynch to win, the FK reduces the pool of suspects by 1 but then it increases by 2 when we become RI. So I'm not sure what the best plan is regarding the FKs yet.

[ansible]

Tattersail, on 21 July 2011 - 01:35 PM, said:

well I have a provisional in on Ment tonight I think. Who is cleared this round? GH you and me? Or is Everyone back on the table?

I think only you and I are clear right now.

[Tattersail_]

okay well you do grief and i'll do ment. it doesn't matter too much if we use a FK now, we just need to save one if we can.

[ansible]

I'm ok with those targets. I'd like to wait a couple hours before voting night though, maybe get a little more discussion out there.

[Tattersail_]

well we are approaching the weekend and i'm thinking we could get the game moving along rather than jumping into next week although this may be a consequence. We have only captured MH twice, we need to do it 4 more times do we not?



Vote Night

[Grief]

In regards to your idea about using all the FKs-the problem is that it really doesn't help our odds. Both of you are added to the suspect pool, so even when there's only 3 people left, it's 1/3 odds, which is what we could have now just with one find.

Find wise, I'd say it does matter to save a FK here if possible. If we don't have 2 tommorow, then using one is really risky, because it risks adding 2 extra people into the suspect pool, and could really hurt our odds.

[Tattersail_]

so are you saying we should only find one person?

[Gust Hubb]

I think that's wise. Just to have a higher likelihood of doing a successful lynch.

[Gust Hubb]

And ansible, I would check with P-S, but I love your idea of blocking MH from a jump.

[Grief]

Tattersail, on 21 July 2011 - 01:56 PM, said:

so are you saying we should only find one person?

I'm not really sure. Finding 2 gives us better odds of being able to lynch MH. However, it also gives us a better chance of hitting MH, which will hurt us down the line.

[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 11. 16 hours and 10 minutes remaining
6 Players still alive: ansible, Grief, Gust Hubb, HiddenOne, Mentalist, Tattersail

4 votes to lynch, 3 votes to go to night.

2 Votes for Night ( Mentalist, Tattersail )

Players not voted: ansible, Grief, Gust Hubb, HiddenOne

[Grief]

Gust Hubb, on 21 July 2011 - 02:03 PM, said:

And ansible, I would check with P-S, but I love your idea of blocking MH from a jump.

Hasn't this come up before?

Pretty sure someone mentioned it a couple of days back, and someone pointed out that to win scum only needs to make it impossible for us to kill MH 6 times, which blocking him effectively does since he can't jump which means he can't be killed.

[Tattersail_]

well if we were to find one person Ans, then Grief would be acceptable. He didn't want us to do a double find and if we are listening to him then he would be best to clear before we proceed forward

[Gust Hubb]

Grief, on 21 July 2011 - 02:07 PM, said:

Gust Hubb, on 21 July 2011 - 02:03 PM, said:

And ansible, I would check with P-S, but I love your idea of blocking MH from a jump.

Hasn't this come up before?

Pretty sure someone mentioned it a couple of days back, and someone pointed out that to win scum only needs to make it impossible for us to kill MH 6 times, which blocking him effectively does since he can't jump which means he can't be killed.

I don't know if it came up, but yeah, that is a good point grief. I retract my support of going down to two active FKs.

[Gust Hubb]

I agree Tat.

[Gust Hubb]

Sorry ansible. getting too talkative again. Shutting up