[worry]

Cram it in your gullet once and for all:
https://www.llnl.gov...R-12-06-04.html

Research shows humans are primary cause of global ocean warming over past 50 years

LIVERMORE, Calif. -- The oceans have warmed in the past 50 years, but not by natural events alone.

New research by a team of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory scientists and international collaborators shows that the observed ocean warming over the last 50 years is consistent with climate models only if the models include the impacts of observed increases in greenhouse gas during the 20th century.

Though the new research is not the first study to identify a human influence on observed ocean warming, it is the first to provide an in-depth examination of how observational and modeling uncertainties impact the conclusion that humans are primarily responsible.

"We have taken a closer look at factors that influence these results," said Peter Gleckler, an LLNL climate scientist and lead author of the new study that appears in the June 10 edition of the journal, Nature Climate Change. "The bottom line is that this study substantially strengthens the conclusion that most of the observed global ocean warming over the past 50 years is attributable to human activities."

The group looked at the average temperature (or heat content) in the upper layers of the ocean. The observed global average ocean warming (from the surface to 700 meters) is approximately 0.025 degrees Celsius per decade, or slightly more than 1/10th of a degree Celsius over 50 years. The sub-surface ocean warming is noticeably less than the observed Earth surface warming, primarily because of the relatively slow transfer of ocean surface warming to lower depths. Nevertheless, because of the ocean's enormous heat capacity, the oceans likely account for more than 90 percent of the heat accumulated over the past 50 years as the Earth has warmed.

In this study the team, including observational experts from the United States, Japan and Australia, examined the causes of ocean warming using improved observational estimates. They also used results from a large multi-model archive of control simulations (that don't include the effects of humans, but do include natural variability), which were compared to simulations that included the effects of the observed increase in greenhouse gases over the 20th century.

"By using a "multi-model ensemble," we were better able to characterize decadal-scale natural climate variability, which is a critical aspect of the detection and attribution of a human-caused climate change signal. What we are trying to do is determine if the observed warming pattern can be explained by natural variability alone," Gleckler said. "Although we performed a series of tests to account for the impact of various uncertainties, we found no evidence that simultaneous warming of the upper layers of all seven seas can be explained by natural climate variability alone. Humans have played a dominant role."

Livermore co-authors include Benjamin Santer, Karl Taylor and Peter Caldwell, whose work was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (contract DE-AC52-07NA27344). International collaboration from Australia was funded through the Antarctic and Climate Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre and the Australian Climate Change Science Program, a joint initiative of the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency, the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, with additional support provided from Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation's (CSIRO) Wealth from Oceans Flagship. Collaborators from the U.S. are funded by Scripps Institution of Oceanography and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Collaborators from India are funded by the Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi, and collaborators from Japan are funded by the Frontier Research Center for Global Change.

[Gnaw]

worrywort said:

1339448241[/url]' post='968803']
Cram it in your gullet once and for all:
https://www.llnl.gov...R-12-06-04.html

Research shows humans are primary cause of global ocean warming over past 50 years

You're missing the point. This issue has moved far beyond the science. When a US Senator says that global warming can't be real because God promised to not destroy the earth with a flood (AGAIN!) it is no longer open to rational thought. You simply cannot have a discussion with someone who really, truly believes in magic, demons, and gods.
I used to think that Sam Harris was being a bit shrill when he wrote:
"But technology has a way of creating fresh moral imperatives. Our technical advances in the art of war have finally rendered our religious differences—and hence our religious beliefs—antithetical to our survival. We can no longer ignore the fact that billions of our neighbors believe in the metaphysics of martyrdom, or in the literal truth of the book of Revelation, or any of the other fantastical notions that have lurked in the minds of the faithful for millennia—because our neighbors are now armed with chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons. There is no doubt that these developments mark the terminal phase of our credulity. Words like "God" and "Allah" must go the way of "Apollo" and "Baal" or they will unmake our world." I no longer disagree with that position. Now I just wonder whether we'll make it off planet in time to save the species.

[worry]

Uh, did you make a point earlier in the thread for me to miss, or are you just making that your assy segue into that screed just for the hell of it? I posted a science article in the science thread, that's basically the start and end of what I did.

[Gnaw]

Gust Hubb said:

1310434414[/url]' post='877884']
Ok, I have waited far to long to create this thread, but here it is. Science. Yes we are a literary/fantasy strong site, but I know for a fact that many of you are scientists or closely related to one. So science pride people!!! I have two ideas to run with on this thread:

1) Pretty pictures. Seriously who doesn't like a good bug pic from the Scanning Electron Microscope.

2) Nerd talk. (e.g. again, I must post this awesome geek site (though it is good for computer geeks as well, mind you) www.thinkgeek.com)

At long last, a place beyond my avatar to share the wealth!!!!

My favorite bit of science:
http://topdocumentar...iverse-changed/
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0199208/
I watched the series again a few months ago and came to the realization that Mr. Burke was probably the single most influential impetus for my shift out of theism.

[Gnaw]

worrywort said:

1339977506[/url]' post='970767']
Uh, did you make a point earlier in the thread for me to miss, or are you just making that your assy segue into that screed just for the hell of it? I posted a science article in the science thread, that's basically the start and end of what I did.

I'm sorry. No I didn't, and I apologize for being 'assy'. I was commenting on the assertiveness of your "cram it...once and for all.". My point was that those who (arguably) most need to read that article will never do so.

This post has been edited by Gnaw: 18 June 2012 - 12:13 AM

[worry]

The assertiveness of my "cram it" was for everyone everywhere, regardless of opinion. You too. Cram it!

[Kruppe's snacky cakes]

Aha! Finally, my pet peeve of excessive navel-gazing takes one on the jaw:

Why Smart People Are Stupid

[Satan]

Having a nerd night in, reading about octopuses and squids on Wikipedia. Quite simply fascinating!

http://en.m.wikipedi...iki/Cephalopod.

[worry]

Satan, on 18 June 2012 - 07:26 PM, said:

Having a nerd night in, reading about octopuses and squids on Wikipedia. Quite simply fascinating!

http://en.m.wikipedi...iki/Cephalopod.

Was it cuz of this: http://www.dailymail...ists-claim.html

[Satan]

I tell you, the woman is on to something. Granted, trying to inseminate herself through eating is rather silly, but the underlying intentions are ingeniously proactive. I have no doubt that in a couple of hundred thousand years cephalopodes will be the dominant species on earth. Get in with them while they're down and your children will reap the benefits as a higher order of slaves in the new kingdom.

Also, fun fact: octopuses can only know the exact placement of their arms by visually observing them; they literally have minds of their own.

[worry]

http://quigleyscabin...s-go-vegan.html
Carnivorous Plants Go Vegan

The carnivorous common sundew (Drosera rotundifolia) traps insects by attracting them with its bright red color, getting them stuck to the glistening drops of mucilage on its leaves, and then curling around them (see it in action here and magnified here) and dissolving them with enzymes. Because it lives in habitats that are poor in nutrients, it has to eat bugs to supplement its diet. But Dr. Jonathan Millett of Loughborough University in Leicestershire, UK, has determined that pollution has caused the sundew to lose its appetite for meat. "If you've got enough food in the fridge, you don't go to the shops to buy some more," the plant ecologist analogizes. He studied the sundews growing in the bogs of Sweden and has found that, due to the burning of fossil fuels, the rain that falls now contains enough nitrogen to sustain the plants without catching flies and midges. Millett and coauthors have published their study in New Phytologist, showing that plants in lightly-polluted areas got 57% of their nitrogen from their insect prey, while those in more heavily-polluted areas got only 22% from insects. How do they shift their diet? When they absorb the nitrogen through their roots, they make their leaves less sticky, trapping fewer prey, and they tone down their bright color, so fewer bugs are drawn to them. How did the scientists identify the sources of the nitrogen in the plants' diet? They did an isotopic analysis of the sundews, the insects, and the moss growing in the area, which allowed them to work out the proportions, since nitrogen of biological origin (bugs) has a different atomic weight than nitrogen deposited in the rain. Although the ability to make this change in their diet allows the sundews to take advantage of the artificial rain of fertilizer that has disturbed their specialized ecosystem, it does not spare them possible extinction. Carnivorous plants have to spend lots of energy on their specialized equipment, so even if they are using the adaptations less, "...they still have to bear the residual costs of being carnivorous, and other plants without these will be better able to survive. So it’s quite likely we’ll see less abundance and perhaps local extinctions from carnivorous species. The individual plants get bigger and fitter, but the species as a whole is less well adapted to high-nitrogen environments and will lose out over time,” explains Millett. Because sundew is so widespread it is unlikely to be killed off by nitrogen pollution, but the same cannot be said of other carnivorous plants existing in smaller populations.

[QuickTidal]

I thought this was pretty awesome.

 exoplanets.png (196.09K)
Number of downloads: 5

[Kruppe's snacky cakes]

The golden ratio set to music:

What the golden ratio sounds like

[QuickTidal]

Kruppe, on 20 June 2012 - 06:30 PM, said:

The golden ratio set to music:

What the golden ratio sounds like

Holy shit. That's amazingly simple and yet so awesome!

[frookenhauer]

QuickTidal, on 20 June 2012 - 01:32 PM, said:

I thought this was pretty awesome.

exoplanets.png

Interesting fact the number 786 denotes the 1st prayer in some branches of Islam, roughly translated it means

There is no god but Allah and Mohammed is his prophet

I do hope we find some more

[Adjutant Stormy~]

I love exoplanets.

As XKCD mentioned.

[Silencer]

worrywort, on 11 June 2012 - 08:57 PM, said:

"Although we performed a series of tests to account for the impact of various uncertainties, we found no evidence that simultaneous warming of the upper layers of all seven seas can be explained by natural climate variability alone. Humans have played a dominant role."

OBJECTION! Without properly consulting the said research, I have spotted a flaw in their conclusion: "cannot be explained by natural climate variability alone" =/= "humans have played a dominant role".

The fact that they've even taken this line suggests to me that the researchers were biased towards a certain outcome which in turn calls into question their entire research. Cram THAT in YOUR gullet, Worry.



In all seriousness, that article about smart people being more prone to cognitive bias and short-cut taking (basically skipping the logic altogether) was an interesting read (even if I'm not taking it ENTIRELY seriously, coming from the New Yorker...) and I'm now officially using that as an excuse for any errors I make in simple arithmetic/logic questions (I do make a lot of them :S), particularly the part about self-criticism versus spotting other's failings.

[worry]

That begs the question...if we accept (A) the conceit that humans are separate from "natural variability," and ( that they are not necessarily the dominant force in climate change, and © neither is natural climate variability: then must we go one step further to consider the impact that other non-natural variables like ghosts are having on climate change? And ultimately, should we lump them in with living humans after all, or make it an entirely new third source branch?

My gullet is already crammed with such heady thoughts, I can cram no more.

[Beezulbubba]

Watch out for the Klingons near Uranus.

[Kruppe's snacky cakes]

Silencer, on 23 June 2012 - 07:27 AM, said:

(even if I'm not taking it ENTIRELY seriously, coming from the New Yorker...)

That almost goes without saying...

worrywort, on 23 June 2012 - 07:58 AM, said:

then must we go one step further to consider the impact that other non-natural variables like ghosts are having on climate change?

I was going to chime in to complain that ghosts get blamed for everything these days.

Evicted Tenant Blames Ghost for Noise

But then I started thinking.

This is what ghosts look like:


 fantomes6.jpg (48.13K)
Number of downloads: 0


This is what CO2 looks like:


 make-own-dry-ice-fogger-800x800.jpg (12.47K)
Number of downloads: 0

I think you may have stumbled onto something here.