[Sheltatha Lore]

Emurlahn, on 30 September 2011 - 06:15 PM, said:

sigh

have you found ANYONE i haven't supposedly signalled yet?



i'm severly tempted to vote Meanas today. for bringing up that stupid comma business.

So you can distance yourself from him too, eh?

[Serc]

Okaros, on 30 September 2011 - 06:35 PM, said:

Back from class. I was going to bring up the Gamelon Emur conversation, but it seems that you folks have covered it since I was last here. I would rather focus on Serc, and his odd actions late in the last day. I have went through the thread and selected a couple quotes dealing with the Serc/Gamelon signalling. I've taken the liberty to underline some stuff that is of interest, but I urge you all to read through the paragraph in which it is underlined to gain some idea of context..

Serc, on 29 September 2011 - 06:01 PM, said:

Tiamatha, on 29 September 2011 - 05:01 PM, said:

Gamelon, on 28 September 2011 - 08:01 PM, said:

Nihao all! This game looks like it's going to be a blast! Love the new avatars, although I hope they're sufficiently distinguishable at a glance. Probably will be, as I can see there's quite a variation in background colour and clothing colour to make them all unique.

Vote Serc

For not knowing Chinese.

Serc, on 28 September 2011 - 09:15 PM, said:

Oh, and...

Vote Gamelon

For pretending to know Chinese .

Gamelon, on 28 September 2011 - 09:51 PM, said:

Serc, on 28 September 2011 - 09:15 PM, said:

Oh, and...

Vote Gamelon

For pretending to know Chinese .

OMG, You Suck!


Vote Serc

Oh wait, I've already done that.

A few people have already pointed this out... And reading back, actually THIS is the first possible signaling attempt? Funny how Serc comes back and accuses Emur on a shady OMGUS vote, when he and Gamelon were doing reach-arounds very very early in game.. And then both jump the signaling gun...

Serc, on 29 September 2011 - 04:16 PM, said:

Emurlahn, on 29 September 2011 - 03:25 PM, said:

I am here briefly, as i'm nearly late for class.

as someone pointed out, your typical qwerty keyboard has a comma next to the m.



so htere, m,eanas!
now, since people don't seem capable of letting it go:



vote Gamelon

because oh, my, god, your case sucks



back in a few hours

I think this is a bogus post. Just because the [,] and [m] keys are next to each other on the keyboard...justifies nothing. And you seem to have deliberately made the same mistake just to prove that point? And then a deliberate OMGUS vote. None of this sits well with me. The hiding-in-plain-sight thing - trying to downplay things that would otherwise be suspicious by pointing them out, drawing attention to them, or deliberately being obvious about them - well, it's too early in the game for this to get a pass, I think.

Vote Emurlahn

Of course, the other problem right now is that with so many people playing, half of everyone (myself included) has 5 posts or fewer, and so at this point the nail that sticks up tends to get hammered down. Not a lot of other options, though.

It's not as if we have enough time, right? And it's not as if you guys can actually POINT OUT who exactly Emur was signaling, and we can decide if we can actually link that signal with something worth seeing into...
That's bullocks if you ask me.

I could vote for Emur right now, but I am ALL for voting to whom Emur was signaling to, if you can somehow pinpoint it out, maybe?
But right now, you two are getting cozy and quite close, and THAT is more worth looking into..

And since Gamelon pretty much stated he's a Civil Official / Military Official - That makes YOU Serc his Emperor, if he's signaling you with the double voting and the underlying chit-chat of day 1.

So, to make a long story short, can you guys actually come up with a name as to WHO Emur was signaling? If Emur DOES happen to be a Civil Servant / Military Official signaling to his Emperor, then let's try to FIND that Emperor, shall we?


And btw, I think we still have 3 people who haven't checked in yet? Galain, Kessobahn, Tennes.. ?

I'm getting cozy with whom? Gamelon? Fuck Gamelon. Due to his involvement with Emurlahn I see him as the next best target besides Emur. I mentioned earlier that it looked like Game was trying to distance himself from Emur with a vote after their initial interaction. Or did you mean I was getting cozy with Emurlahn? Anyone who thinks there was any interaction between Emurlahn and I needs to reread the thread. My first response and comment to him was followed by a vote on him. Somehow people just started saying, "yeah, those interactions between serc/game/emur!!!" when in reality...the interactions are all between Gamelon and someone else.

I think your problem is you want to find Emur's Emperor and lynch him on day 1. Odds are that isn't going to happen. We have very little info to base a lynch on; it's day 1, that's how it is. The best option is to find the most suspicious interactions, explore them if possible, and lynch someone involved. You even say you're ok with an Emurlahn vote but you'd rather lynch the person he was signaling - great, that's exactly what I said when I voted, so how can you criticize me for following the line of thought you are putting forward? I smell hypocrisy and dissembling.

I should point out that in the above response, Serc mentions that Gamelon voted for Emur to distance themselves from one another. This idea seems to be popular, based on Serc later actions.

Meanas, on 29 September 2011 - 10:58 PM, said:

Interesting that Gamelon decides to vote, with unconvincing reasoning, for the player that it's been suggested he might have signalled to at the very beginning of the game in Serc. Trying to avoid that accusation again much? It seems to me that Gamelon is slightly panicking. He's seeing that votes are beginning to be evenly split between himself and Emurlahn, abandons the Emur case - which he proclaims as just fishing for reactions - and targets the guy who forms part of the case on himself.

For someone who's urging others to look around and find suspicious activity in other players, this stinks of self-preservation play. Not that that definitively makes Gamelon an important player - I only note that there is certainly more than a whiff of worry about him.

Kaschan, on 30 September 2011 - 12:56 AM, said:

Atrahal, on 30 September 2011 - 12:47 AM, said:

So Emu hints at being a civil servant, Gam calls him on it. Votes ensue.

Gam is voting for Serc because he says Serc is not looking hard enough at other players.

Gam is being voted for because of a comma in an Emu post.(punctuation, it's a bitch)

Tiam is first to bring up a role, so Omtose votes for Okaros for bringing it up next.




It think that covers it for this point in day 1. Have I missed anything?


Oh, and Gam looks like how I would picture an oriental Kruppe.

My first reaction was that the Game vote on Serc was more to say "look, I wasn't signalling" at a point late enough when it is unlikely a train on Serc is going to gain any real steam.

As for the weekend, I vote for a time freeze with the thread left open.

Serc, on 30 September 2011 - 04:10 AM, said:

Ok. Gamelon it is.

Remove vote

Vote Gamelon

Serc, on 30 September 2011 - 04:11 AM, said:

Actually...

Remove vote

I realize my vote opens Game to the hammer, so I can wait around until day's end to see if he'll show up.

The vote was removed with maybe only a couple hours left in the day. Like Serc, I too wished for Gamelon to appear and provide a defense. However, at this point I believe Gamelon had something like 11 votes, and with very little time left. Serc risks a no lynch and admits that he will not be there for when the day ends, so he may as well not vote. There was a good chance that the day would end in a no kill seeing as we had very little activity from a number of players on day 1.

I might be right off the mark here, but let me recap the suspicious behaviour. Serc and Gamelon were accused of signalling one another. Game votes for Serc, with no intention of any train building; this indicates an attempt to create distance between the two, it seems. Serc would vote for Gamelon, because we were running out of daylight. But then removes the vote, basically saying that he/she did not want to be responsible for a Gamelon lynch that would happen in a couple hours (at the end of the day, when Serc wouldn't even be around). This vote removal threatened the possibility of a no lynch, which I think we all agree would not have been good for the game in general.

It is very possible that Serc is part of Gamelon's faction. Not sure if we have enough evidence to say which position, but there is definitely something there.

I just have to say...did everyone fail reading comprehension in school or something? Far be it from me to beat a dead horse, but please try to read more carefully. When I removed my vote on Gamelon, I said, "I can wait around until day's end to see if he'll show up." To be more explicit, I was saying that I will wait around until the day is almost over to give Gamelon a chance to respond. I was able to wait to vote until time was about to expire. I always intended to put my vote back on Gamelon before the day timed out. The point of removing my vote and waiting around was to prevent someone from hammering Gamelon before he got a chance to give some last words (if he wanted to - at least he would have the option). At that point, who knows what kind of info he had or might have shared?

I just....I can't possibly see how you can read my post and think that I tried to stall the lynch at the last minute. I did nothing of the sort. I didn't "admit that I wasn't going to be there at day's end"; I said the opposite. In very clear English.

[Okaros]

/facepalm.

I does say can. I am sorry. The rest of the post stands, but I erroneously read it as you bailing on the vote for the night. My mistake.

[Serc]

Barghast, on 30 September 2011 - 07:46 AM, said:

A bit meh, that ninja-edit just after the hammer. Seeing how postage time is only 2 minutes after, it might be a legitimite cross-post . It is up to P-S to delete what could have been a cross-post, not to the player. Oh well.

Reading the last few minutes before the lynch, I'm not sure what to think of Serc at this point.

Karosis comes on at .58 and asks if he should hammer. Then, he wait five minutes and decides to hammer at .03, with what he says are 15 minutes on the clock. One minute later, at .04 Serc posts his vote and comments he "almost missed it".

If there were 15 minutes on the clock... that's not almost, that's a quarter of an hour still to go. Also, Gamelon was (recently) online at that time (his last post at that point was .58 as well, just like Karosis'), so it makes no sense whatsoever for Serc to hammer Gamelon at that time if he wants to wait for a last minute confession, even if Game asks for a hammer (as he did). In which case, telling Karosis he was around and going to be around for a bit longer would have been more prudent.

Now, I guess this is a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation for Serc, it might be a legitimate cross-post with Karosis (my condoleances on your loss, by the way) but given the history and potential distancing between Serc and Game, it opens quite the can of worms with the way it played out.

This is also wrong...by my count the day was going to end 10 minutes past the hour; I posted my vote at 4 minutes past the hour. There were 6 minutes left, not 15. Gamelon even came and posted before I voted. He had the opportunity to say something but didn't for some reason, then later posted again but edited it out.

I wanted to wait and see if Game had something to say; he showed up but said nothing. Check. 6 minutes left in the day; time to vote. Check. Hammering made total sense at that point. I am very wary of people who act like they spent time checking their facts but in reality get the details all wrong.

[Serc]

Also, to those of you who think Game was signaling me because I'm his Emperor (hypothetically speaking of course...) - why would he vote me like he did? Yes, his case was weak, but at that point no one even had 25% of the votes needed for a lynch; the possibility of the lynch swinging to a new target was still very real. With people calling me out for being aggressive already, why would Gamelon take the risk of starting a lynch train on his Emperor? He would be totally unable to stop it if others latched on, too; any attempt to swing it away would have made people even more suspicious. What would the signal even accomplish? I wasn't pushing for his lynch at all anyway, so if there was some signal to be interpreted, it's not like it would have made any difference; it wouldn't help him avoid being lynched and if anything it would draw attention to his Emperor in a negative way. It was definitely a desperate move, voting for me when I was pushing for Emur's lynch at the time, but signaling? Come on.

[Emurlahn]

well, if we are to go that route....



one could argue that Gamelon saw the tide turning. it's all speculative, since at that time the votes were locked 3 to 3 (with Okaros as a 1-vote outsider), but a lot of people were expresing criticismtowards Gamelon, and he thought that after the initial signalling (if the first voting back and forth between you can be considered that), voting for you would immediately discredit any attempt to vote you off, simply becasue he started the train.


mind, this is all just speculation.

[Serc]

Just did a quick read-through. Only thing that really stands our right now is Kessobahn. Here's his second post (first was nothing):

Kessobahn, on 30 September 2011 - 03:29 AM, said:

I'm here and caught up.

It appears that Gamelon is going to be the lynch today, no matter what happens at this stage.

I do agree that he is trying to avoid being lynched, but doesn't everyone, especially in a faction game?

Honestly I am somewhat more interested in Silanah's case on Okaros at this time, but we only have an hour and a half left, so we aren't going to get that lynch going. The Cult is weak now and it should be exterminated, root and branch if possible.

But, we do need a lynch, so ...
Vote Gamelon

He presents the Gamelon lynch as inevitable, which it probably was, but it's always weird when someone shows up out of nowhere, lays a vote, and gives no explanation. Not even a "oh yeah, I think Game is suspicious too". He also mentions "the Cult"...which no one has said up to this point I think. People have talked about the Usurper a bit but since he is alone and probably can't recruit yet....I think it's odd to say "The Cult is weak now and it should be exterminated, root and branch if possible." - I realize "root and branch" is just a common idiom, but it suggests that the "cult" is made up of more than one player, which contradicts what we currently think we know.

All of Kesso's three other posts (making 5 total) are minor comments about Gamelon's edited post except...

Kessobahn, on 30 September 2011 - 07:07 AM, said:

Galain, on 30 September 2011 - 07:04 AM, said:

Kessobahn, on 30 September 2011 - 07:03 AM, said:

Galain, on 30 September 2011 - 06:58 AM, said:

Yeah ... sure.

So you say.

I do in fact say so. There was 6-7 other people on at the same time, I'm sure one of them would call me out if I was lying, if just to get an easy lynch. We could also have PS restore the post if we need to since some of us saw it and some didn't.

You're all just in on the conspiracy.

Including P-S. I only trust the ravens.

Hugin told me to say 'the komodo bites the dynasty at sunrise!'

Uh, bringing up H&M? Along with a really weird comment? I don't know that this can be called signaling, the context is too obscure for me to interpret, but it's very strange. For someone who has low-posted some weird comments and hopped on the lynch train at the end just because, I'd like to hear more from Kessobahn today.

[Emurlahn]

well, the way it look slike, Galain was the one who brought up H&M



although I agree about the cult thing.

[Serc]

Emurlahn, on 30 September 2011 - 08:12 PM, said:

well, the way it look slike, Galain was the one who brought up H&M



although I agree about the cult thing.

Oh, wait, I just made the connection - the ravens comment, right?

[Meanas]

D, on 24 August 2011 - 10:37 PM, said:

The names of the locations are based on the largest cities or important landmarks within their general area. When other cities are named, it is often a hint that events are occuring in the closest location.

Path-Shaper, on 30 September 2011 - 05:17 PM, said:

The first year of renewed hostilities saw little actual bloodshed. Armies massed at every border, defensive barricades were erected, spies performed reconaissance deep within enemy territory and resources were accumulated at strategic points. Both Zhang Xiu and Yuan Tan were plagued by news of renewed fighting along their outer borders, including many reports of enemy attempts to penetrate deep into the center of each kingdom. The atmosphere was oppressive, with the constant feeling day after day that a storm was just over the horizon.

Night is over. No one has died.

Now resolving Dawn events.

It is 226 AD (Day 2). 35 hours and 59 minutes remaining
24 Players still alive: Atrahal, Barghast, Emurlahn, Galain, Hood's Path, Karosis, Kaschan, Kessobahn, Korlat, Meanas, Mockra, Okaros, Omtose, Osseric, Rashan, Ruse, Serc, Sheltatha Lore, Silanah, Sorritt, Telas, Tennes, Thyrllan, Tiamatha

13 votes to lynch, 12 votes to go to night.


Players not voted: Atrahal, Barghast, Emurlahn, Galain, Hood's Path, Karosis, Kaschan, Kessobahn, Korlat, Meanas, Mockra, Okaros, Omtose, Osseric, Rashan, Ruse, Serc, Sheltatha Lore, Silanah, Sorritt, Telas, Tennes, Thyrllan, Tiamatha

From this, it seems to me there's been some movement to the locations whose overlap includes either Xia or Lu faction territory. Areas such as Tlan Shui, Chang An, Yong An, He Fei, and Xin Du. Now, as the warlords' starting locations alread overlap into Xia and Lu territories, and because PS's post is written as worrying the Xia and Lu emperors, I suggest this means that several Xia and Yan players have moved towards Lu territories, and Lu and Yan players have moved towards Xia territories.

Which means that Chang An, Yong An, and He Fei are likely the areas with the most players in right now.

[Path-Shaper]

VOTE COUNT

It is 226 AD (Day 2). 32 hours and 40 minutes remaining
24 Players still alive: Atrahal, Barghast, Emurlahn, Galain, Hood's Path, Karosis, Kaschan, Kessobahn, Korlat, Meanas, Mockra, Okaros, Omtose, Osseric, Rashan, Ruse, Serc, Sheltatha Lore, Silanah, Sorritt, Telas, Tennes, Thyrllan, Tiamatha

13 votes to lynch, 12 votes to go to night.


Players not voted: Atrahal, Barghast, Emurlahn, Galain, Hood's Path, Karosis, Kaschan, Kessobahn, Korlat, Meanas, Mockra, Okaros, Omtose, Osseric, Rashan, Ruse, Serc, Sheltatha Lore, Silanah, Sorritt, Telas, Tennes, Thyrllan, Tiamatha

[Emurlahn]

so, when we freezing?

i'm intending to go out shortly, and won't be back untill tomorrow.

[Path-Shaper]

Emurlahn, on 30 September 2011 - 08:50 PM, said:

so, when we freezing?

i'm intending to go out shortly, and won't be back untill tomorrow.

Planning to freeze when there are 32 hours remaining exactly, though I won`t likely be online to post that exactly when it happens.

[Tiamatha]

Dropping in, in between doing chores and preparing stuff...

Hell, I'm supposed to feel relieved for the upcoming weekend and rest, yet somehow I'm more tired than I was before I left work, and I'm not even done yet for the day...

Let's see...

Sorrit, on 30 September 2011 - 08:58 AM, said:

Well, you make a point, who do you think Emur was signalling then? You see to me it looked as if he was signalling Game, but now you say he wasn't. Well, i'll have a look through Emur's early post and see if I can spot anything. I'm sure you'll do the same, no?

I didn't actually catch Emur red handed for signaling, but I saw Gamelon and later on others spotting a signal attempt... So I did a fast re-read, but couldn't find something accurately, or else I would have quoted it to resurface it...
More for what got me thinking in the way I did, will follow later, commenting on another quote, so read a bit further down please.

Sorrit, on 30 September 2011 - 09:07 AM, said:

Is this what you are thinking Tiam? The interaction of sorts between Atrahal and Emurlahn, the posts both have Geisha's within the content

Emur shits himself and leaves. Wishy washy but this could be construed that way.

That could be it. Perhaps it's what got the others aroused as well. Thanks for reminding me that, and bringing it up.



Now, I'll try to address what you people asked, to the best of my ability. I hope this clears some thing up. Perhaps this will answer your first question as well, Sorrit.

Barghast, on 30 September 2011 - 08:59 AM, said:

@ Tia: since we have no clue in which faction Sima Yi is, and each kingdom faction has knowledge only of their emperor, it's going to take lynching all three to be certain. By that time, we are on day 3 (if in Best Case Scenario Game is an Emperor, otherwise, BCS day 4). While I'm sure every kingdom player loves lynching the Emperor of another faction, they'll disagree about losing their own
The real winners in that scenario are the warlords, since they've got an interest in weeding out Emperors and the Usurper. I think you've thought of that, too. And I now think where I'll provisionally place you, too.


Secondly, as an alternative explanation: with the limited two-line info available in the public info on the role of the Usurper, I read it that the Usurper only establishes his own faction once he becomes Emperor:

Quote

When his Emperor dies, Sima Yi becomes an Emperor (at which point he can no longer recruit) and his followers become the Jin faction.

That might suggest that until Sima Yi's Emperor dies, there is no Usurper faction, instead, all his recruits are sleeper agents. Or something. In which case, paradoxally, not lynching Emperors makes sense.

So yeah, your idea is intriguing. I'm all for it, if we find a way to make it work. And that's where this is all coming a bit apart at the seams. Because, if I am correct with my model above, there is no way we can keep all 3 Emperors around. If you are, how are we going to get rid of three Emperors in a decent enough time frame?

Mockra, on 30 September 2011 - 10:51 AM, said:

So we have a lynch, and even before the CF we've got some good suppositions coming out. This game is coming along really well already I think.

So we have - Emur could have been signalling Atrahal.

Atrahal could be Gamelon's emperor.

Tiamatha making some interesting points about the Usurper.

Barghast pointing out that Tiamatha's eagerness to get rid of emperors might put Tiam in the Warlord camp.

Have I missed anything?

Ruse, on 30 September 2011 - 11:02 AM, said:

Barghast, on 30 September 2011 - 08:59 AM, said:

Quote

When his Emperor dies, Sima Yi becomes an Emperor (at which point he can no longer recruit) and his followers become the Jin faction.

That might suggest that until Sima Yi's Emperor dies, there is no Usurper faction, instead, all his recruits are sleeper agents. Or something. In which case, paradoxally, not lynching Emperors makes sense.

Actually I was wondering about this - if Sima Yi becomes Emperor, what happens to that dead emperor's remaining subjects? I wonder if they have some sort of advantage they enjoy initially since having an usurper in their midst must act as a disadvantage. I think it's fair to assume that the usurper can't recruit his emperor at least.

I think we can also conclude that recruitment cannot be blocked, since blocking happens if someone else uses the same action and I assume there isn't another recruit ability. The only thing that prevents it is the usurper has to figure out who is in his vicinity to successfully recruit. That, thankfully, will slow down that process.

Ok folks, bear with me, while I try to explain things.

Killing Emperors as EARLY as possible benefits the majority greatly (unless you belong in the same faction duhhh) because we might catch the Emperor under which Sima Yi (Usurper) operates and force him to become the new faction without allowing him the opportunity to recruit as heavy as possible, thus minimizing his damage potential.

Killing Emperors as LATE as possible doesn't benefit anyone pretty much, not even Warlords, unless we have already killed Sima Yi. Winning the game means eliminating all other factions if I read it correctly, and eventually in the end, if we arrive at a late day with let's say two emperors still alive, and Sima Yi still being under one of them, then killing an Emperor might result in greatly unbalancing numbers, simply because the guy has been recruiting all this time, and might end up with a lot of subjects already, sufficient enough to lead the pact. So people will be reluctant to lynch/kill Emperors due to that.

So, what I wanted to accomplish PRIOR TO GAMELONS CF with my posts and questions/thoughts in the thread was ----

Try to get people to go after Gamelon's Emperor (or Emurlahn's Emperor, since I started all this trying to get Gamelon or Serc who were the most vocal ones about Emur's signaling to reveal the name they believe Emur was signaling to) , rather than Gamelon himself (or Emur himself) way of thinking , because

1) Killing an Emperor very early benefits the majority, not just Warlords in particular.
2) We could potentially land on the Emperor under which Sima Yi is currently.
3) People who would vigorously try to prevent us from going for the Emperor would be his own Civil / Military Servant since he knows his alt name (In case of Gamelon, Gamelon himself since it was clear he had this role) -AND- the Usurper, since he doesn't want to risk the chance of potentially getting his own Emperor killed this early. Reading the Prime Minister role, while it does say "assisting his own Emperor" it doesn't hint anything about knowing his alt name, and about the other three hidden role types, there's not much to speculate on...

But most importantly :::

4) Reading the Usurper role, it says he operates under one of the Emperors as an underling. It doesn't say that he already knows the alt name of his emperor anywhere. And that is a VERY vital piece of information for him. Because he clearly needs that Emperor alive for as long as possible, while he recruits, and later on in the game, when he feels confident he has enough recruits, he will be gunning down to FIND that Emperor and get him lynched/killed in order to become the new faction. So, in reality the Usurper WANTS us to establish links like that, but go for the SYMP (Civil / Military Servant in this case) rather than the Master (Emperor), since by that he actually benefits from
a ) Not potentially stabbing himself in the foot and lynch his own emperor very early in the game
b ) Gaining intel from the SYMPS CF, realizing which faction it belonged to, and potentially (33%) finding out who his Emperor is.

And he benefit from all that, from OUR work (If we managed to make some decent links between the supposed signals that people were accused off, etc etc).
Talk about plucking our own eyes with our own hands.

The Usurper doesn't care how many people die from his current faction, just that his Emperor stays alive long enough for him to recruit as much as possible.

That's what I wanted to bring everyone's attention to, that we should have considered establishing the links between the supposed signals, decide which one is the more solid, then gun out for the Emperor rather than the Underling.

So, where does the Usurper now stand (at least in my way of thinking ) ---

I) He knows Gamelon's faction. If it's the same as his, and we keep up investigating the potential links of Gamelon's signaling, then we narrow down possible alt names for his Emperor, which he will defend to the best of his abilities RIGHT now, but will try to get them out of the game later on.
II) If Gamelon's faction isn't the same as his own, then he doesn't give a flying smack if we connect Gamelon with someone else. Right now, imo, he would be more interested in something like gunning down for Emur (the other name that was connected with the "Civil Sevant" thingy). He will let us speculate and talk about who Emur was signaling and stuff, then probably subtle push for an Emur lynch so he can find out his faction as well, and narrow down more alt names about his current Emperor.


Bleh. I feel like we missed a decent chance, that was worth taking a risk for.

Phew, long post, sorry about that...



EDIT :: grammar, I speak England very best... :S

This post has been edited by Tiamatha: 30 September 2011 - 08:55 PM

[Emurlahn]

long post kill thread?



i'm heading out to friends' double birthday in 20. will not be back untill tom.

[Meanas]

At the moment, there's a lot of attention on Serc, because of Gamelon's double-vote joke, and his serious vote on Serc when he had 3 votes. The idea is that Gamelon was signalling Serc and then trying to distance later when conversations turned to signalling.

To me, it is interesting that Gamelon voted for Serc soon after it was suggested that the person who initially brings up signalling (i.e. Gamelon against Emurlahn) is doing so at least partly because they've done it themselves and wished to draw attention elsewhere/they were on the lookout for it from others because they themselves had done it.

Because of this, I think Serc is our best bet at the moment for an Emperor.

I think our next best bet might be Tiamatha. If we accept that Gamelon was right and that Emurlahn was another Civil official, then that 'I like you' comment directed at Tiamatha by Emurlahn looks pretty suspect. On the other hand, it was Tiamatha who brought up the idea of getting rid of Emperors as soon as possible so that the Usurper has fewer recruits.

Would an Emperor themselves suggest this. Well, yes. Because it means that Tiamatha might be the last place we look for an Emperor, as they themselves suggested hunting them ASAP. So the other two Emperors are killed off rapidly, leaving Tiamatha with less to fear.

So Serc, Tiamatha and Emurlahn are the ones I'm most wary of. At this point, I'm actually feeling most certain about Emur's role, but that also means I don't think he's one of the big dogs.

[Rashan]

Finally the weekend...sorry to be so quiet.

I wanted to look more at some of the attempts at signaling on day one. Especially with all the examiniation of Serc, these two quotes below may be particularly relevant:

Serc, on 28 September 2011 - 07:46 PM, said:

Hello. Loving the new avatars. Now if only I could speak Chinese...

Serc, on 29 September 2011 - 02:04 PM, said:

I'm around, reading up. I guess I should

Remove Vote

since we seemed to have moved past the joke vote phase. I personally thought that Gamelon's vote for Emur after Emur's comments seemed like distancing. I also find signals that seem too obvious (like the mention of "civil" whatever and the comma problem) extremely damning on day one when there is little to do except signal and put out feelers.

The first quote indicates to me that Serc is saying he is not Chinese, and there is only one team that is not Chinese: The White Riders. The second quote is merely emphasizing that Serc thinks Day 1 is a good day to signal and put out feelers, which makes me think he tried his hand at signaling. So I think this would make Serc either a Warlord or a Champion. Either way, definitely a good one to eliminate either to eliminate that faction or get rid of someone with night kill ability.

[Ruse]

Meanas, on 30 September 2011 - 11:27 PM, said:

At the moment, there's a lot of attention on Serc, because of Gamelon's double-vote joke, and his serious vote on Serc when he had 3 votes. The idea is that Gamelon was signalling Serc and then trying to distance later when conversations turned to signalling.

To me, it is interesting that Gamelon voted for Serc soon after it was suggested that the person who initially brings up signalling (i.e. Gamelon against Emurlahn) is doing so at least partly because they've done it themselves and wished to draw attention elsewhere/they were on the lookout for it from others because they themselves had done it.

Because of this, I think Serc is our best bet at the moment for an Emperor.

I think our next best bet might be Tiamatha. If we accept that Gamelon was right and that Emurlahn was another Civil official, then that 'I like you' comment directed at Tiamatha by Emurlahn looks pretty suspect. On the other hand, it was Tiamatha who brought up the idea of getting rid of Emperors as soon as possible so that the Usurper has fewer recruits.

Would an Emperor themselves suggest this. Well, yes. Because it means that Tiamatha might be the last place we look for an Emperor, as they themselves suggested hunting them ASAP. So the other two Emperors are killed off rapidly, leaving Tiamatha with less to fear.

So Serc, Tiamatha and Emurlahn are the ones I'm most wary of. At this point, I'm actually feeling most certain about Emur's role, but that also means I don't think he's one of the big dogs.

I actually was thinking along the same lines as this - Tiam was also making long speculations about Emur's supposed signaling, which I interpreted as possible distancing from the 'real' signal from Emur to Tiam.


(poor Emur, that'll teach'im to roleplay! )

[Korlat]

I hope this posts I've been having more than a little trouble and my computer crashed during the last post I attempted and then refused to load the thread.

Okay so Gamelon turns out to be what others thought he was hinting at being, a civil officer, which means he would know who his emperor was. In turn this leads us to suspect that serc is in fact his emperor as he possibly signalled him early on day one, the two casting joke votes against each other. It is interesting to note that after this Gamelon goes on to make a lot of low content posts, makes another joke vote against Hood's Path before his serious, 'caught you signalling' post against Emur though he offers no thoughts then as to who Emur was actually signalling.


Looking at it that his exchange with serc was early signalling this seems more significant because he distances himself from that exchange before making an accusation of a similar nature against emur, which of course he later changes his mind on saying he was looking for reactions and points serc's out as suspicious despite serc not having been the lowest poster. He also mentioned in a post playing the game like he didn't have a role because then people would think he didn't, something which could possibly also apply to serc. Serc reaction to the vote against him struck me at the time as overdramatic considering there were at that point three votes on both emur and gamelon himself, which made both of those two more likely to be lynched than anyone else. Maybe too the reason serc removed his vote so that a hammer would not occur was in the hope that gamelon would do a fake reveal to point away from him. He even says he waited to see if gamelon had anything interesting to say before he was inevitably hammered.

no. 27 sec votes gam
no. 33 gam votes serc (OMGUS haha etc)
game make a few posts with little content, some consisting solely of smilies
no. 45 gam removes vote on serc and transfers it to hood's path (citing beard envy)
no. 66 gam then votes emur on accusations of signalling


The possible links between emur and tiam I have to admit i'd totally missed I think i'll cast my eye over that again but it is interesting if he is also a civil officer to note his exchanges as he could possibly be signalling to his emperor. Emur and Atrahal could possibly have something but that feels like it reaches more of a dead end after that little interaction near the start.

[Path-Shaper]

It is 226 AD (Day 2). The clock has been frozen with 32 Hours and 00 Minutes remaining.
24 Players still alive: Atrahal, Barghast, Emurlahn, Galain, Hood's Path, Karosis, Kaschan, Kessobahn, Korlat, Meanas, Mockra, Okaros, Omtose, Osseric, Rashan, Ruse, Serc, Sheltatha Lore, Silanah, Sorritt, Telas, Tennes, Thyrllan, Tiamatha

13 votes to lynch, 12 votes to go to night.


Players not voted: Atrahal, Barghast, Emurlahn, Galain, Hood's Path, Karosis, Kaschan, Kessobahn, Korlat, Meanas, Mockra, Okaros, Omtose, Osseric, Rashan, Ruse, Serc, Sheltatha Lore, Silanah, Sorritt, Telas, Tennes, Thyrllan, Tiamatha

--- the clock froze when it first reached 32 hours (about 5 hours ago). All actions submitted after that will be queued and I will not resolve them until the clock resumes. Thread will stay open for discussion, but no voting.

This post has been edited by Path-Shaper: 01 October 2011 - 01:59 AM