[Korlat]

I think there are some clues there for us, the phoenix comment is similar to the usurper writeup and its reference to the phoenix. I think those interpretations are interesting tennes, they seem to make sense in the context.

[Emurlahn]

I think the pheonix comment probably refers to Sima Yi getting a recruit,



now, as i've already mentioned, I think the Usurper is likely to start with Yan. they are supposed to be the biggest faction becasue they aret he only faction that won their "tale" mini, and don't have any barbarians threatening their flank.

now, just thinking about it, if the Usurper was a yan, and he started in Yan territory, I think he would move to one of the border cities with Xia and Lu to facilitate recruitment (he'd be able totarget people both in the border city and the 2 respective capitals, increasing his chances of catching someone.


as such, I feel it might be in the collective interests of the thread to try to find such middlemen.

[Sorrit]

Tiamatha has been on and on about the Usurper from the start, with 20 odd people playing finding the Usurper is not something we would be able to do easily. Yet, Tiam has brought up many ways in which to combat him or theories on who he could be. He mentions him again here, highlighting his name, (which is different to the one Serc gave us about Tiamatha, (Cen Pi)) and I wondered why he said this as we all can see that the Usurper is active.

Tiamatha, on 04 October 2011 - 02:36 PM, said:

Great.

Now Sima Yi is active, as well...
One giant pool of potential clusterfuck...

Tiamatha, signing off for now.
Dropping logic bombs on the thread, one post at a time.

Well if we take the scene from night two.

Path-Shaper, on 04 October 2011 - 06:39 PM, said:

The Yan ruler, irate at being roused in the middle of the night, eyed the dishevelled and poorly dressed man accompanying his general disapprovingly. "And what, exactly, is this dirty peasant supposed to do for us, general?" "My lord, this is Guan Lu, the famed diviner of heaven's secrets and master of the stars. He sees events and people far away. He's already described for me the Lu emperor's castle defenses at Han Zhong!" Suspicious but intrigued, Huang Zhong asked Guan Lu to describe portentious events occuring in the world.

The mystic, who spoke only in riddles as mystics are wont to do, said to Zhong "A winged shadow descends upon a deserted village. Is it surprised? In the ancient capital, a man swallows and chokes on a phoenix. He dies and is born anew, but perhaps there are some who can tell the difference. The oxen charge against the wall again and again but they cannot find the door handle."

Huang Zhong, unimpressed, dismissed his general and returned to bed.

Night 2 is ended. No one died.

What if Cen Pi is now dead and his new name is Sima Yi? Tiam puts a lot of stock into highlighting his own name, and he didn't deny Serc's accusation about his character.

Finally...


I have read over the character Serc claimed Tiamatha to be. You can all find it on one of the links in the OP, but here it is

Cen Pi

() General Who Pacifies the North, Field Marshall

A military officer of the Han who became a general loyal to Yuan Shao. One of the high court members secluded in 200 to root out Liu Bei's conspiracy (and one of the even fewer who survived). Shortly after the Liu Bei incident, promoted to Field Marshall and sent to the northern border with limited forces to repel Gongsun Zan's invasion. Fought Gongsun Zan back and forth across the northern plains for a couple years, losing most of his initial command, but managed to encircle Gongsun Zan's main forces in Fan Yang. Held the siege for several years with limited reinforcements before Gongsun Zan broke out and fled north. For the next 15 years, commanded the northern frontier through numerous minor battles and campaigns between Gongsun Zan and Yuan Shao's forces while Shao conducted his southern campaigns, soldified his hold on the central provinces and took the throne.

So this says that Cen Pi, (Tiamatha) is an underling of an emperor to start with. It then goes on to say he takes the throne. Now I think Tiam is linked to the Usurper, either being the Usurper or something else. I know Cen Pi is a different name to Sima Yi but I wouldn't put it past D'rek to incorporate a cool mechanic like a name change into the role of the Usurper because it would give Tiam a day or so to recruit people into his new faction.

Does anyone know what the new faction is called when it's formed? I think it may be in the OP

[Kessobahn]

No, if you know how to read, that says Yuan Shao took the throne. I honestly don't understand why we are back to this 'Cen Pi is usurper' thing. Did you read the thread? Since the CF came back with Serc being able, at least, to tell the truth, and Tiam has not actually denied it as far as I can tell, I think we can put Tiam down as a Military Officer for the Xia faction.

[Telas]

Ruse, on 04 October 2011 - 02:47 PM, said:

Quote

For example, chew on this, and tell us how come you dismissed the possibility of Serc being the Civil Officer sending a Notice action during Day 2 as far as the results of his Find NA.
Wouldn't that RESULT in more players actually gaining that information?
Since he like, revealed finder abilities?

I don't get it. Why would he necessarily send a notice action? How does that result in more people knowing what he revealed? (unless you're suggesting his message was different than the reveal, which is interesting, but I'm not sure how it is relevant to your berating of Karo)

I don't actually get this either to be honest. Would you like to elaborate?

Path-Shaper, on 04 October 2011 - 06:39 PM, said:

The Yan ruler, irate at being roused in the middle of the night, eyed the dishevelled and poorly dressed man accompanying his general disapprovingly. "And what, exactly, is this dirty peasant supposed to do for us, general?" "My lord, this is Guan Lu, the famed diviner of heaven's secrets and master of the stars. He sees events and people far away. He's already described for me the Lu emperor's castle defenses at Han Zhong!" Suspicious but intrigued, Huang Zhong asked Guan Lu to describe portentious events occuring in the world.

The mystic, who spoke only in riddles as mystics are wont to do, said to Zhong "A winged shadow descends upon a deserted village. Is it surprised? In the ancient capital, a man swallows and chokes on a phoenix. He dies and is born anew, but perhaps there are some who can tell the difference. The oxen charge against the wall again and again but they cannot find the door handle."

Huang Zhong, unimpressed, dismissed his general and returned to bed.

Night 2 is ended. No one died.

Seems likely that someone's been recruited from how I read it. I doubt this is a direct reference to the Usurper's own transformation.

Sorrit, on 04 October 2011 - 07:43 PM, said:

Tiamatha has been on and on about the Usurper from the start, with 20 odd people playing finding the Usurper is not something we would be able to do easily. Yet, Tiam has brought up many ways in which to combat him or theories on who he could be. He mentions him again here, highlighting his name, (which is different to the one Serc gave us about Tiamatha, (Cen Pi)) and I wondered why he said this as we all can see that the Usurper is active.

Tiamatha, on 04 October 2011 - 02:36 PM, said:

Great.

Now Sima Yi is active, as well...
One giant pool of potential clusterfuck...

Tiamatha, signing off for now.
Dropping logic bombs on the thread, one post at a time.

Well if we take the scene from night two.

Path-Shaper, on 04 October 2011 - 06:39 PM, said:

The Yan ruler, irate at being roused in the middle of the night, eyed the dishevelled and poorly dressed man accompanying his general disapprovingly. "And what, exactly, is this dirty peasant supposed to do for us, general?" "My lord, this is Guan Lu, the famed diviner of heaven's secrets and master of the stars. He sees events and people far away. He's already described for me the Lu emperor's castle defenses at Han Zhong!" Suspicious but intrigued, Huang Zhong asked Guan Lu to describe portentious events occuring in the world.

The mystic, who spoke only in riddles as mystics are wont to do, said to Zhong "A winged shadow descends upon a deserted village. Is it surprised? In the ancient capital, a man swallows and chokes on a phoenix. He dies and is born anew, but perhaps there are some who can tell the difference. The oxen charge against the wall again and again but they cannot find the door handle."

Huang Zhong, unimpressed, dismissed his general and returned to bed.

Night 2 is ended. No one died.

What if Cen Pi is now dead and his new name is Sima Yi? Tiam puts a lot of stock into highlighting his own name, and he didn't deny Serc's accusation about his character.

Finally...


I have read over the character Serc claimed Tiamatha to be. You can all find it on one of the links in the OP, but here it is

Cen Pi

() General Who Pacifies the North, Field Marshall

A military officer of the Han who became a general loyal to Yuan Shao. One of the high court members secluded in 200 to root out Liu Bei's conspiracy (and one of the even fewer who survived). Shortly after the Liu Bei incident, promoted to Field Marshall and sent to the northern border with limited forces to repel Gongsun Zan's invasion. Fought Gongsun Zan back and forth across the northern plains for a couple years, losing most of his initial command, but managed to encircle Gongsun Zan's main forces in Fan Yang. Held the siege for several years with limited reinforcements before Gongsun Zan broke out and fled north. For the next 15 years, commanded the northern frontier through numerous minor battles and campaigns between Gongsun Zan and Yuan Shao's forces while Shao conducted his southern campaigns, soldified his hold on the central provinces and took the throne.

So this says that Cen Pi, (Tiamatha) is an underling of an emperor to start with. It then goes on to say he takes the throne. Now I think Tiam is linked to the Usurper, either being the Usurper or something else. I know Cen Pi is a different name to Sima Yi but I wouldn't put it past D'rek to incorporate a cool mechanic like a name change into the role of the Usurper because it would give Tiam a day or so to recruit people into his new faction.

Does anyone know what the new faction is called when it's formed? I think it may be in the OP

This is just a long line of crazy. I mean, really? Why not include a couple of sock puppets too, just to add glazing to your cake.

[Tiamatha]

Back from basketball practice, hitting the shower soonish... dinner after...

Kesso, I can't argue against a claim that only my CF will prove, beyond the point of a reasonable doubt.
I doubt there's anything I can do or tell to convince people I'm not Cen Pi atm so the point is moot.

[Emurlahn]

back from nap (good)

gotta go to class and then work (bad)



people still can't move on past Tiam, it seems. to thepoint of failing reading comprehension.

[Meanas]

So Serc has been lynched then. I believe his find, which means I believe that Tiam is this Cen Pi, likely some kind of military officer, and of the Xia faction.

I'm not surprised that Emurlahn has piped up to tell people to let go of chasing Tiam, because I reckon Emurlahn is Xia as well.

Tiamatha is starting to sound so whiny, seriously. I know you were under pressure, but you're really lashing out at anyone who says anything in your direction. And the whole 'sent a notice' thing out is starting to be really convoluted too, something Tiam's accused others of doing when trying to work their way to a solution.

[Hood's Path]

Tennes, on 04 October 2011 - 06:49 PM, said:

So another no death night. Interesting scenefrom PS. Here's my take.

Path-Shaper, on 04 October 2011 - 06:39 PM, said:

"A winged shadow descends upon a deserted village. Is it surprised?

To me this means that one of the Tribes moved to a tile that had no one in it. Maybe a supposedly popular tile? A Capital thats been deserted?

Path-Shaper, on 04 October 2011 - 06:39 PM, said:

In the ancient capital, a man swallows and chokes on a phoenix. He dies and is born anew, but perhaps there are some who can tell the difference.

This screams of the Usurpers transformation. Also hints that he is in a capital, and that certain finders might be able to see that he is the usurper?

Path-Shaper, on 04 October 2011 - 06:39 PM, said:

The oxen charge against the wall again and again but they cannot find the door handle."

I think PS is poking a little fun here. Maybe some people trying the same action over and over and failing once again.


I can't recall 100% but I seem to remember that D'rek does throw clues into her scenes. These might be worth noting for later.

I've got a moment or two to share some thoughts regarding the resolution of the previous days actions. I think Tennes here has more or less hit on what these posts from PS are about. Though the winged shadow post probably means that whoever was in the northern most region of either the Xia or Lu territory that borders the barbarian tribes retreated to the capital leaving that territory unoccupied and open to the barbarians to occupy unapossed.

Regarding the comments I've read about the Ursuper, I also believe that they most likely started in Jiang Xia. However, I don't think that he would have been able to move until he had an ally in an adjacent city to move. Chances are the Usuper is still in Jiang Xia. As he likely has a recruit now he might have the possibility to move but then he would only be able to move into the city of his recruit.

[Sheltatha Lore]

I think we have been focused on Tiam for a while, it's easy to get tunnel vision. We should either lynch to clear the air or put Tiam on the list of "maybes" and try to look into new avenues to open up choices, scenarios, etc. We won't know for sure without a CF. I'm not pushing for either option, I just would like to see some other things on thread, as some of you will agree.



As for the speculation about Sima Yi, P-S's post announcing the search for recruits lists the Yan calendar, year of "Avenging Flame" The end of night P-S post talks about the phoenix, a creature of flame. By association, I take this to mean the Usurper comes from within the Yan faction. Any comments?

[Meanas]

I don't see a lot of other avenues at the moment. What do we get from the Serc lynch train? Well, it probably contains a lot of non-Lu faction voters. Why? Because most of them put their votes on Serc back when the case was that he was connected to the Lu-factioned Gamelon. I don't think we can strongly argue that the last few votes were attempted distancing either, because it was always a close thing between Tiam and Serc - they could just as easily have piled on to Tiam instead.

So does that then make the last few voters, after Serc's reveal, more likely to be of the Xia faction, same as Tiam? Perhaps.

[Meanas]

Ok, let's see what we have:

On the Serc train: Sorritt, Sheltatha Lore, Meanas, Okaros, Emurlahn, Tennes, Telas, Barghast, Atrahal, Korlat, Omtose, Osseric, and Kessobahn.

Tiamatha was on the train but got off. After Serc's reveal, Telas removed their vote and then put it back on again, while Omtose, Osseric and Kessobahn all voted after. Of these, Osseric and Kessobahn both did a lot of wringing of hands before placing their votes, but Omtose was more decisive:

Omtose, on 04 October 2011 - 03:11 AM, said:

Serc while I find your reveal interesting. I think that the case on Tiam is even more hogwash then the one that started out on you.i.e. you and Gamelon interacting. If you are a finder then for the safety of my faction I am going to have to vote you out. I suspect that even if your not lynched then you will probably be night killed. Revealed finders have a tendency to die especially ones that reveal early in the game. Of course I also suspect that Tiam will probably see a lot of night actions or at least attempted ones.

Vote Serc

To me this now sounds as Omtose is calling on Serc to be NKed should he not be lynched. In addition, the last bit could be construed as an appeal to Xia people to defend Tiam if they can from threat of night action. I believe Omtose to be in the Xia faction as a result.

Now, Telas, who removed their vote from Serc and then soon after put it back on again, said this:

Telas, on 04 October 2011 - 08:49 AM, said:

Thinking about this, I still find myself more willing to vote for Serc than Tiam. Especially as Serc claims finder which seems a little dangerous to keep around. I'd rather not have faction members thrown to the buss left and right.

Vote Serc

Basically the same response to the reveal as Omtose. Was the removal of the vote for our benefit to make it seem as if Telas was weighing the options when in fact there was only ever one choice open to them?


Now the Tiamatha train which stalled:

Up to 9 people were on it at one point - Kessobahn, Ruse, Karosis, Osseric, Rashan, Serc, Silanah, Mockra and Galain.

Kessobahn and Osseric switched to Serc late in the day, whilst Karosis removed their vote but didn't vote again. The initial case on Tiamatha was based on their talk about the Usurper, which led to various speculation on their role as the Usurper, an Emperor, or a Warlord, none of which appear to be correct.

Silanah, Mockra and Galain all voted for Tiamatha after Serc's reveal, so either they are not Xia faction (probable), or they saw it as an inevitability that Tiam would now be lynched and wanted to jump on to continue to keep others guessing as to their own faction identity (possible).

[Rashan]

Path-Shaper, on 04 October 2011 - 12:21 PM, said:

End of 226 AD (Day 2).
24 Players still alive: Atrahal, Barghast, Emurlahn, Galain, Hood's Path, Karosis, Kaschan, Kessobahn, Korlat, Meanas, Mockra, Okaros, Omtose, Osseric, Rashan, Ruse, Serc, Sheltatha Lore, Silanah, Sorritt, Telas, Tennes, Thyrllan, Tiamatha

13 votes to lynch, 12 votes to go to night.

5 Votes for Tiamatha ( Ruse, Rashan, Serc, Silanah, Mockra )
13 Votes for Serc ( Sorritt, Sheltatha Lore, Omtose, Osseric, Telas, Kessobahn, Meanas, Okaros, Emurlahn, Tennes, Barghast, Atrahal, Korlat )

Players not voted: Galain, Hood's Path, Karosis, Kaschan, Thyrllan, Tiamatha

---

After Ma Liang's death, alliance talks broke down between the Lu and Yan. Yuan Tan, seizing this opportunity, had large forces of cavalry and light infantry moved to Tong Pass and Ru Nan in secret over the winter. In the spring of 226 AD, these armies made a series of rapid marches into unprepared enemy territory. At Chang An, the infantry scaled the walls, opened the gates and routed the defenders completely. The armies in Ru Nan launched numerous guerilla assaults across the border, stealing supplies and burning farms near Xin Ye, Gu Shi and Shi Ting.

That summer, the general He Qi was in Jiang Xia recovering from an illness he had received on the front lines. When news of the northern troubles reached Huang Zhong, he summoned He Qi and told him "Your lack of temper in killing Ma Liang has brought the Xia armies down on us before we were prepared and we cannot turn to the Lu for assistance. It is only fitting that then that you lead the vanguard of the northern army into Ru Nan and destroy these guerilla fighters' base of operations." The court physicians cried out and told the court that He Qi could not go due to his illness, but the general brushed their concerns aside and set out the next morning. Each day He Qi's condition grew worse until he fell off his horse 30 li south of Ping Yuan. His commanders stopped the army to let him recuperate, but after two days he passed away.

Serc (ansible) is dead. He was He Qi, General Who Tames the Deep, a Civil Officer of the Yan Dynasty.

Some quick comments here. First of all, the first paragraph describes Xia invading Chang An (the capital of the Han Dynasty, the empire previous to the three kingdom's storyline). This will be relevant when talking about Guan Lu's divination below. Second, the last part of the first paragraph describes Xia forces invading 3 of the northern most towns in the Yan kingdom.

So, it sounds like the scuffle between Tiam and Serc is described as such: Serc, based out of Jiang Xia in the Yan Dynasty was facing off with Xia troublemakers (Tiam). Since Tiam was found by Serc, who had the ability to "find" as a Civil Officer, I think we can safely bet that Tiam is currently on the He Fe tile adjacent to the Jiang Xia tile.

Path-Shaper, on 04 October 2011 - 01:59 PM, said:

It is the midsummer's eve of 226 AD. By the Xia calendar, it is the 2nd reign year of Tai He ("Virtuous Growth"). By the Lu calendar, the 9th year of Huang Wu ("Prosperous Harmony"). By the Yan calendar, the 4th year of Jian Xing "Avenging Flame".

Despite the wars raging through town and city alike, the court and common folk alike take time to celebrate midsummer with festivities raging long into the night. In one city, a prominent high minister is whispering to his sons before they head off to separate court officials' parties: "What we are about to begin may quickly spell our doom, but if we succeed our glory will rise to the heavens. Be cautious, but do not falter."

His eldest son, Shi, replies "Do not worry father, I shall be as discreet as a snake but as steadfast as the dragon." His younger son, Zhao, added "But it is the phoenix that spurns us, rising from its own ashes just as we shall bring the return of the Han."

Sima Yi smiled. "The return of the Han? I suppose that is one way of phrasing it..."





Sima Yi, a high minister of one of the middle kingdoms, has begun searching for followers to his secret cause.

I agree with Sheltatha Lore's logic here that the "Avenging Flame" seems related to the phoenix and places the Usurper within the Yan Dynasty. I also think Hood's Path may be correct in placing the Usurper on the Jiang Xia tile considering that the only battles "raging through town and city alike" are along the Yan Dynasty's northern border. The Xia did penetrate the Chang An tile, but that was described as only one city falling, not the guerrilla warfare seen along the northern border.

Path-Shaper, on 04 October 2011 - 06:39 PM, said:

The Yan ruler, irate at being roused in the middle of the night, eyed the dishevelled and poorly dressed man accompanying his general disapprovingly. "And what, exactly, is this dirty peasant supposed to do for us, general?" "My lord, this is Guan Lu, the famed diviner of heaven's secrets and master of the stars. He sees events and people far away. He's already described for me the Lu emperor's castle defenses at Han Zhong!" Suspicious but intrigued, Huang Zhong asked Guan Lu to describe portentious events occuring in the world.

The mystic, who spoke only in riddles as mystics are wont to do, said to Zhong "A winged shadow descends upon a deserted village. Is it surprised? In the ancient capital, a man swallows and chokes on a phoenix. He dies and is born anew, but perhaps there are some who can tell the difference. The oxen charge against the wall again and again but they cannot find the door handle."

Huang Zhong, unimpressed, dismissed his general and returned to bed.

Night 2 is ended. No one died.

I really liked Tennes interpretation, but I agree with Emur on the phoenix. I see this as an indication that the Usurper has converted someone and that that person is now on a different team and has to hide their new alignment (see underlined above). I also think the Usurper is limited by the adjacent tile rule for actions, and thus must select from someone from the Yong An, Jiang Xia, He Fe, or Eight Fan tiles. In fact, this might be why we didn't see a post about the Usurper on night one (no successful recruitment).

Also, the ancient capital is Chang'an (or on our map, the Chang An tile). Thus, someone not in the Lu empire has moved to that tile and no one is surprised because D'rek wrote about the take over in an earlier passage. This moving player is most likely an Xia player, which means we will probably see some night action as Xia and Lu move into range of each other.


Edit, underlining the names of tiles in my paragraphs

This post has been edited by Rashan: 05 October 2011 - 01:01 AM

[Ruse]

That all sounds completely plausible. There is probably a wrinkle in there somewhere, but that makes sense.

A Tiam lynch would have all of the numbers of the 3 dynasties evened out, and the warlords licking their chops as they would be yet untouched.

[Okaros]

Long day. Sorry I have not been around much the last couple days, my procrastination is really starting to kick my ass.

Good news is that I am caught up, and I have some comments.

Meanas, on 04 October 2011 - 11:00 PM, said:

Ok, let's see what we have:

On the Serc train: Sorritt, Sheltatha Lore, Meanas, Okaros, Emurlahn, Tennes, Telas, Barghast, Atrahal, Korlat, Omtose, Osseric, and Kessobahn.

Tiamatha was on the train but got off. After Serc's reveal, Telas removed their vote and then put it back on again, while Omtose, Osseric and Kessobahn all voted after. Of these, Osseric and Kessobahn both did a lot of wringing of hands before placing their votes, but Omtose was more decisive:

Omtose, on 04 October 2011 - 03:11 AM, said:

Serc while I find your reveal interesting. I think that the case on Tiam is even more hogwash then the one that started out on you.i.e. you and Gamelon interacting. If you are a finder then for the safety of my faction I am going to have to vote you out. I suspect that even if your not lynched then you will probably be night killed. Revealed finders have a tendency to die especially ones that reveal early in the game. Of course I also suspect that Tiam will probably see a lot of night actions or at least attempted ones.

Vote Serc

To me this now sounds as Omtose is calling on Serc to be NKed should he not be lynched. In addition, the last bit could be construed as an appeal to Xia people to defend Tiam if they can from threat of night action. I believe Omtose to be in the Xia faction as a result.

Now, Telas, who removed their vote from Serc and then soon after put it back on again, said this:

Telas, on 04 October 2011 - 08:49 AM, said:

Thinking about this, I still find myself more willing to vote for Serc than Tiam. Especially as Serc claims finder which seems a little dangerous to keep around. I'd rather not have faction members thrown to the buss left and right.

Vote Serc

Basically the same response to the reveal as Omtose. Was the removal of the vote for our benefit to make it seem as if Telas was weighing the options when in fact there was only ever one choice open to them?


Now the Tiamatha train which stalled:

Up to 9 people were on it at one point - Kessobahn, Ruse, Karosis, Osseric, Rashan, Serc, Silanah, Mockra and Galain.

Kessobahn and Osseric switched to Serc late in the day, whilst Karosis removed their vote but didn't vote again. The initial case on Tiamatha was based on their talk about the Usurper, which led to various speculation on their role as the Usurper, an Emperor, or a Warlord, none of which appear to be correct.

Silanah, Mockra and Galain all voted for Tiamatha after Serc's reveal, so either they are not Xia faction (probable), or they saw it as an inevitability that Tiam would now be lynched and wanted to jump on to continue to keep others guessing as to their own faction identity (possible).

I think Meanas hits the mark here when he/she mentions that Silanah, Mockra and Galain voted because they were not part of Xia. They could have thought a Tiam lynch was inevitable, but at the time Serc was under heavy scrutiny and so it was not a sure thing that Tiam was going to get the lynch. Now we can say that they are probably not Xia, but we should also consider which faction would be most against the Xia. It could be that the three share a faction (though I admit that may be a stretch). Just something to consider.

Rashan, on 05 October 2011 - 12:58 AM, said:

Path-Shaper, on 04 October 2011 - 12:21 PM, said:

End of 226 AD (Day 2).
24 Players still alive: Atrahal, Barghast, Emurlahn, Galain, Hood's Path, Karosis, Kaschan, Kessobahn, Korlat, Meanas, Mockra, Okaros, Omtose, Osseric, Rashan, Ruse, Serc, Sheltatha Lore, Silanah, Sorritt, Telas, Tennes, Thyrllan, Tiamatha

13 votes to lynch, 12 votes to go to night.

5 Votes for Tiamatha ( Ruse, Rashan, Serc, Silanah, Mockra )
13 Votes for Serc ( Sorritt, Sheltatha Lore, Omtose, Osseric, Telas, Kessobahn, Meanas, Okaros, Emurlahn, Tennes, Barghast, Atrahal, Korlat )

Players not voted: Galain, Hood's Path, Karosis, Kaschan, Thyrllan, Tiamatha

---

After Ma Liang's death, alliance talks broke down between the Lu and Yan. Yuan Tan, seizing this opportunity, had large forces of cavalry and light infantry moved to Tong Pass and Ru Nan in secret over the winter. In the spring of 226 AD, these armies made a series of rapid marches into unprepared enemy territory. At Chang An, the infantry scaled the walls, opened the gates and routed the defenders completely. The armies in Ru Nan launched numerous guerilla assaults across the border, stealing supplies and burning farms near Xin Ye, Gu Shi and Shi Ting.

That summer, the general He Qi was in Jiang Xia recovering from an illness he had received on the front lines. When news of the northern troubles reached Huang Zhong, he summoned He Qi and told him "Your lack of temper in killing Ma Liang has brought the Xia armies down on us before we were prepared and we cannot turn to the Lu for assistance. It is only fitting that then that you lead the vanguard of the northern army into Ru Nan and destroy these guerilla fighters' base of operations." The court physicians cried out and told the court that He Qi could not go due to his illness, but the general brushed their concerns aside and set out the next morning. Each day He Qi's condition grew worse until he fell off his horse 30 li south of Ping Yuan. His commanders stopped the army to let him recuperate, but after two days he passed away.

Serc (ansible) is dead. He was He Qi, General Who Tames the Deep, a Civil Officer of the Yan Dynasty.

Some quick comments here. First of all, the first paragraph describes Xia invading Chang An (the capital of the Han Dynasty, the empire previous to the three kingdom's storyline). This will be relevant when talking about Guan Lu's divination below. Second, the last part of the first paragraph describes Xia forces invading 3 of the northern most towns in the Yan kingdom.

So, it sounds like the scuffle between Tiam and Serc is described as such: Serc, based out of Jiang Xia in the Yan Dynasty was facing off with Xia troublemakers (Tiam). Since Tiam was found by Serc, who had the ability to "find" as a Civil Officer, I think we can safely bet that Tiam is currently on the He Fe tile adjacent to the Jiang Xia tile.

Path-Shaper, on 04 October 2011 - 01:59 PM, said:

It is the midsummer's eve of 226 AD. By the Xia calendar, it is the 2nd reign year of Tai He ("Virtuous Growth"). By the Lu calendar, the 9th year of Huang Wu ("Prosperous Harmony"). By the Yan calendar, the 4th year of Jian Xing "Avenging Flame".

Despite the wars raging through town and city alike, the court and common folk alike take time to celebrate midsummer with festivities raging long into the night. In one city, a prominent high minister is whispering to his sons before they head off to separate court officials' parties: "What we are about to begin may quickly spell our doom, but if we succeed our glory will rise to the heavens. Be cautious, but do not falter."

His eldest son, Shi, replies "Do not worry father, I shall be as discreet as a snake but as steadfast as the dragon." His younger son, Zhao, added "But it is the phoenix that spurns us, rising from its own ashes just as we shall bring the return of the Han."

Sima Yi smiled. "The return of the Han? I suppose that is one way of phrasing it..."





Sima Yi, a high minister of one of the middle kingdoms, has begun searching for followers to his secret cause.

I agree with Sheltatha Lore's logic here that the "Avenging Flame" seems related to the phoenix and places the Usurper within the Yan Dynasty. I also think Hood's Path may be correct in placing the Usurper on the Jiang Xia tile considering that the only battles "raging through town and city alike" are along the Yan Dynasty's northern border. The Xia did penetrate the Chang An tile, but that was described as only one city falling, not the guerrilla warfare seen along the northern border.

Path-Shaper, on 04 October 2011 - 06:39 PM, said:

The Yan ruler, irate at being roused in the middle of the night, eyed the dishevelled and poorly dressed man accompanying his general disapprovingly. "And what, exactly, is this dirty peasant supposed to do for us, general?" "My lord, this is Guan Lu, the famed diviner of heaven's secrets and master of the stars. He sees events and people far away. He's already described for me the Lu emperor's castle defenses at Han Zhong!" Suspicious but intrigued, Huang Zhong asked Guan Lu to describe portentious events occuring in the world.

The mystic, who spoke only in riddles as mystics are wont to do, said to Zhong "A winged shadow descends upon a deserted village. Is it surprised? In the ancient capital, a man swallows and chokes on a phoenix. He dies and is born anew, but perhaps there are some who can tell the difference. The oxen charge against the wall again and again but they cannot find the door handle."

Huang Zhong, unimpressed, dismissed his general and returned to bed.

Night 2 is ended. No one died.

I really liked Tennes interpretation, but I agree with Emur on the phoenix. I see this as an indication that the Usurper has converted someone and that that person is now on a different team and has to hide their new alignment (see underlined above). I also think the Usurper is limited by the adjacent tile rule for actions, and thus must select from someone from the Yong An, Jiang Xia, He Fe, or Eight Fan tiles. In fact, this might be why we didn't see a post about the Usurper on night one (no successful recruitment).

Also, the ancient capital is Chang'an (or on our map, the Chang An tile). Thus, someone not in the Lu empire has moved to that tile and no one is surprised because D'rek wrote about the take over in an earlier passage. This moving player is most likely an Xia player, which means we will probably see some night action as Xia and Lu move into range of each other.


Edit, underlining the names of tiles in my paragraphs

This post seems to be an accurate assumption of the map movements up until now. It also might be correct in assuming the Usurper's possible location, which would make it a target for night actions it seems. As I understand it, the Usurper was once an underling of an emperor, and now acts as a separate faction. Or does the Usurper need to take out his/her emperor?

I have to say, the more the game progresses the greater these mechanics seem to get. Forcing emperors to be suspicious of their own underlings?! Insane stuff.

[Emurlahn]

Ruse, on 05 October 2011 - 03:31 AM, said:

That all sounds completely plausible. There is probably a wrinkle in there somewhere, but that makes sense.

A Tiam lynch would have all of the numbers of the 3 dynasties evened out, and the warlords licking their chops as they would be yet untouched.

except there's a huge probability that Yan started out bigger that the other dynasties.
and you didn't factor in Sima.

[Path-Shaper]

It is 227 AD (Day 3). 26 hours and 36 minutes remaining
23 Players still alive: Atrahal, Barghast, Emurlahn, Galain, Hood's Path, Karosis, Kaschan, Kessobahn, Korlat, Meanas, Mockra, Okaros, Omtose, Osseric, Rashan, Ruse, Sheltatha Lore, Silanah, Sorritt, Telas, Tennes, Thyrllan, Tiamatha

12 votes to lynch, 12 votes to go to night.


Players not voted: Atrahal, Barghast, Emurlahn, Galain, Hood's Path, Karosis, Kaschan, Kessobahn, Korlat, Meanas, Mockra, Okaros, Omtose, Osseric, Rashan, Ruse, Sheltatha Lore, Silanah, Sorritt, Telas, Tennes, Thyrllan, Tiamatha

[Atrahal]

So no connection between Serc and Gamelon, and Tiam's paranoia has turned out to be well founded. Was Serc's reveal real or a stab in desperation. I have to think, and my head hurts.

[Omtose]

Path-Shaper, on 04 October 2011 - 12:21 PM, said:

End of 226 AD (Day 2).
24 Players still alive: Atrahal, Barghast, Emurlahn, Galain, Hood's Path, Karosis, Kaschan, Kessobahn, Korlat, Meanas, Mockra, Okaros, Omtose, Osseric, Rashan, Ruse, Serc, Sheltatha Lore, Silanah, Sorritt, Telas, Tennes, Thyrllan, Tiamatha

13 votes to lynch, 12 votes to go to night.

5 Votes for Tiamatha ( Ruse, Rashan, Serc, Silanah, Mockra )
13 Votes for Serc ( Sorritt, Sheltatha Lore, Omtose, Osseric, Telas, Kessobahn, Meanas, Okaros, Emurlahn, Tennes, Barghast, Atrahal, Korlat )

Players not voted: Galain, Hood's Path, Karosis, Kaschan, Thyrllan, Tiamatha

---

After Ma Liang's death, alliance talks broke down between the Lu and Yan. Yuan Tan, seizing this opportunity, had large forces of cavalry and light infantry moved to Tong Pass and Ru Nan in secret over the winter. In the spring of 226 AD, these armies made a series of rapid marches into unprepared enemy territory. At Chang An, the infantry scaled the walls, opened the gates and routed the defenders completely. The armies in Ru Nan launched numerous guerilla assaults across the border, stealing supplies and burning farms near Xin Ye, Gu Shi and Shi Ting.

That summer, the general He Qi was in Jiang Xia recovering from an illness he had received on the front lines. When news of the northern troubles reached Huang Zhong, he summoned He Qi and told him "Your lack of temper in killing Ma Liang has brought the Xia armies down on us before we were prepared and we cannot turn to the Lu for assistance. It is only fitting that then that you lead the vanguard of the northern army into Ru Nan and destroy these guerilla fighters' base of operations." The court physicians cried out and told the court that He Qi could not go due to his illness, but the general brushed their concerns aside and set out the next morning. Each day He Qi's condition grew worse until he fell off his horse 30 li south of Ping Yuan. His commanders stopped the army to let him recuperate, but after two days he passed away.

Serc (ansible) is dead. He was He Qi, General Who Tames the Deep, a Civil Officer of the Yan Dynasty.

Path-Shaper, on 04 October 2011 - 01:59 PM, said:

It is the midsummer's eve of 226 AD. By the Xia calendar, it is the 2nd reign year of Tai He ("Virtuous Growth"). By the Lu calendar, the 9th year of Huang Wu ("Prosperous Harmony"). By the Yan calendar, the 4th year of Jian Xing "Avenging Flame".

Despite the wars raging through town and city alike, the court and common folk alike take time to celebrate midsummer with festivities raging long into the night. In one city, a prominent high minister is whispering to his sons before they head off to separate court officials' parties: "What we are about to begin may quickly spell our doom, but if we succeed our glory will rise to the heavens. Be cautious, but do not falter."

His eldest son, Shi, replies "Do not worry father, I shall be as discreet as a snake but as steadfast as the dragon." His younger son, Zhao, added "But it is the phoenix that spurns us, rising from its own ashes just as we shall bring the return of the Han."

Sima Yi smiled. "The return of the Han? I suppose that is one way of phrasing it..."



Sima Yi, a high minister of one of the middle kingdoms, has begun searching for followers to his secret cause.

Path-Shaper, on 04 October 2011 - 06:39 PM, said:

The Yan ruler, irate at being roused in the middle of the night, eyed the dishevelled and poorly dressed man accompanying his general disapprovingly. "And what, exactly, is this dirty peasant supposed to do for us, general?" "My lord, this is Guan Lu, the famed diviner of heaven's secrets and master of the stars. He sees events and people far away. He's already described for me the Lu emperor's castle defenses at Han Zhong!" Suspicious but intrigued, Huang Zhong asked Guan Lu to describe portentious events occuring in the world.

The mystic, who spoke only in riddles as mystics are wont to do, said to Zhong "A winged shadow descends upon a deserted village. Is it surprised? In the ancient capital, a man swallows and chokes on a phoenix. He dies and is born anew, but perhaps there are some who can tell the difference. The oxen charge against the wall again and again but they cannot find the door handle."

Huang Zhong, unimpressed, dismissed his general and returned to bed.

Night 2 is ended. No one died.

I am not so sure that the phoenix is referring to Simi Yi. In Chinese legend the dragon refers to the emperor and the phoenix refers to the empress. Also the phoenix is not suppose to tolerate lies or dishonor it is suppose to stand for justice and graciousness. It seems to me that the Simi Yi youngest son is saying that the phoenix is opposing their plans. Second underlined reference to a phoenix would seem to indicate that a transformation has occurred. As I don't think that the phoenix is referring to Simi Yi then I think that someone has had a role activated, either by being attacked or by the usurper making his move.

[Omtose]

I almost forgot the phoenix bird is used to represent the south in Chinese geomagnetism.