[rhulad]

I imagine that there will be another election in 2 years or less, regardless of whose minority it is, this will continue until someone either wins a majority or the electoral system is changed. But that's just my opinion.

[Anomander]

No doubt media coverage of the election will become more... interesting, let's say, with The Sun launching their new 24 hour cable news channel. Especially with Ezra Levant getting his own show.

All hail Fox News Canada!

[Abyss]

Y'know, they passed a frikkin LAW. It says elections every. four. years. FFS.

As for Sun Media, nothing there we haven't seen before, nothing voiced that wasn't already being said. At least this way, we can KNOW who the wingnuts are.

[RodeoRanch]

I have to stop reading about politics. It aggravates me just too damn much.

[Goaswerfraiejen]

Once again, take it with a grain of salt, but the NDP is currently polling #1 in the province of Québec, and tied for second (nationally) with the Grits!

The most impressive thing, I think, is that it's such a dramatic improvement in our polls both provincially and nationwide. Clearly, we've done a much better job of getting the message out and selling ourselves than we have in the past. The polls may not translate to ridings (22-23 in QC would be a staggering success, and would catapult the party... well, into everything--but going from 1 to 23 ridings in a province in one election is a stretch at best), but they're very encouraging. If we can gain a fair few ridings on election day and, crucially, capture a larger portion of the popular vote, then very soon I think that Canadians will be able to take us as a serious election threat. Just wait until Duceppe retires... the Bloc will take a real hit that year!

[cerveza_fiesta]

Both leaders in my province yesterday.

Predictable lines from both. Iggy was in Saint John trying to swing that riding to the libs, Harper was in Fredericton (my town) which is a place that seems to pick a candidate and stick with him until he dies or retires. Safely conservative in the upcoming election I think, given that the incumbent is a senior minister and the liberal opponent can put "former radio DJ" on his resume and not much more. I don't think we've ever even come close to electing an NDP candidate.

I was very, very glad to hear that they both addressed our crippled nuclear power plant - which is now somewhere near a gazillion dollars over-budget on a repair job that's approaching 2 years past the original completion date. Problem is, Atomic Energy of Canada Limited (AECL) is a federal crown corporation and its their fault, but the feds have so far refused to cough up anything to help our provincial power utility, which is paying for the cost overrun right now. Our utility needs that nuke plant up and running for their business model to work regardless of what the envirotards think about it.

We pay out the ass for electricity in NB, and all that overrun cost is getting passed on to us in rate hikes...so I think it's something the federal candidates can really use to rally voters in NB if they can make a clear connection between the issue and our power rates.

My province is in large part decrepit, sawmill towns and fishing towns that have lost their primary employers in recent softwood price crashes...which means there's a shit-ton of rednecks on welfare with nothing better to do than go ATVing and hunting. Stuff like abolishment of gun registry and anything to reduce gas prices, energy costs or strategic placement of government offices in struggling mill towns really rings true around here. I would not be surprised at all to see NB vote blue all the way this time. Our last provincial election (about 1 year ago) saw the liberals go from a majority to having a tiny fraction of the seats, so it's plain to see whose platform is on peoples' minds.

I still stick by my theory that any party in power is going to have to run government, and there's only so many ways you can do that. In terms of taxation and spending on the major money pits (education, healthcare and social assistance), it doesn't matter who is in power. I also think that the economy and its whims are so globalized that whoever is in power just rolls with it and does the best they can.

So the only thing I have to go on is ideological differences. I know the liberals won't vote down gay rights bills, they will vote pro-choice most of the time, they aren't stuck on this idiotic "tough on crime, build bigger prisons" thing that doesn't work and last time they were in power they decriminalized marijuana posession (a very positive thing even though I don't smoke much anymore). Basically, their sensibilities agree with mine in large part, so I'm gonna vote for them.

[Goaswerfraiejen]

cerveza_fiesta, on 21 April 2011 - 11:37 AM, said:

I would not be surprised at all to see NB vote blue all the way this time. Our last provincial election (about 1 year ago) saw the liberals go from a majority to having a tiny fraction of the seats, so it's plain to see whose platform is on peoples' minds.

Having lived there for four years, I would be seriously surprised if Beauséjour voted blue.


Also, there's yet another poll confirming the rise of the NDP.

[QuickTidal]

Goaswerfraiejen, on 12 April 2011 - 05:28 PM, said:

Also, as a matter of public record... Peter Mansbridge is a soft dolt (a fact which first became clear to me after his rollover interview with Harper a couple years ago), just like Rex Murphy. If you want a hard-hitting, informed, and serious journalist, look to Pierre Maisonneuve.

Isn't he married to a Dale sister too? Cynthia I believe. His Canadian cred goes up for that....though it would skyrocket if it was hard-as-nails Jennifer Dale...but they all can't be gems.

[Abyss]

So... Lib minority with the Tories in opposition after losing ground to the NDP, mostly in QC.

Plausible? Possible?

Discuss...

[QuickTidal]

I don't want to whine about another minority...I won't I won't...

whine.

Another Minority on its way? FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU

[Anomander]

The upside to a minority is that we'll probably see the party leaders step down (except for Duceppe). Layton's building a legacy this election, Harper needs a majority or his party will push him to step down, and Iggy needs to win a minority or majority to stay on as leader.

[Goaswerfraiejen]

Anomander, on 21 April 2011 - 08:17 PM, said:

The upside to a minority is that we'll probably see the party leaders step down (except for Duceppe). Layton's building a legacy this election, Harper needs a majority or his party will push him to step down, and Iggy needs to win a minority or majority to stay on as leader.

Duceppe has already announced his intention to retire. IIRC it's in two years, but I could be wrong on that front.

[RodeoRanch]

Is there a strong contender for the Tory leadership should Harper not win a majority?

[Anomander]

That's the big question: who would replace Harper? The string of retirements leading up to the campaign (such as Stockwell Day) got rid of a few top contenders. I would suggest Peter MacKay but no Maritimer will be leading the Conservatives any time soon. There have been rumours the far-right might push forward a candidate who's more openly on their side regarding debates like same sex marriage and abortion rights.

[Una]

I sort of expected this all along. Of course there's no obvious successor to Harper! He's systematically kept a lid on everyone in the party, especially anybody with the aptitude or ambition. It wouldn't be good to let anyone get strong enough to challenge him. He won't let go of the power, so if he ever steps down, which he won't do willingly, there will be a giant vacuum.

I also think it would be a mistake to swing back to the far right. They've only started to make inroads with the "ethnic vote" and the "women's vote" and various other "non-redneck votes" by carefully softening their image over the last few years. If they let the crazies out full force again, they'd lose all that. Historically, Canadians have always tended towards the centre, in everything. So you only attract the fringes by going to the far right or far left. And there's not enough people at the fringes to give you a majority.

[Goaswerfraiejen]

RodeoRanch, on 21 April 2011 - 11:19 PM, said:

Is there a strong contender for the Tory leadership should Harper not win a majority?

Probably Peter MacKay, John Baird, or Lawrence Cannon. Of the three, Mackay is probably the best of the bunch.

IN OTHER EARTH-SHATTERING NEWS, the NDP is currently projected to win 60 seats and thereby shatter Tory dreams of a majority.

This post has been edited by Goaswerfraiejen: 22 April 2011 - 03:38 AM

[RodeoRanch]

I can't stand John Baird. All he does is yell.

[D'rek]

Una, on 22 April 2011 - 01:32 AM, said:

I sort of expected this all along. Of course there's no obvious successor to Harper! He's systematically kept a lid on everyone in the party, especially anybody with the aptitude or ambition. It wouldn't be good to let anyone get strong enough to challenge him. He won't let go of the power, so if he ever steps down, which he won't do willingly, there will be a giant vacuum.

I also think it would be a mistake to swing back to the far right. They've only started to make inroads with the "ethnic vote" and the "women's vote" and various other "non-redneck votes" by carefully softening their image over the last few years. If they let the crazies out full force again, they'd lose all that. Historically, Canadians have always tended towards the centre, in everything. So you only attract the fringes by going to the far right or far left. And there's not enough people at the fringes to give you a majority.

In some senses you could consider this to still be aftermath from the merging of the PC and Alliance parties. The PC party was the bigger party who usually was government or the official opposition, and they were centre-right, while the Alliance was farther right but not as successful. Harper came from the Alliance. Could he have been gradually moving the merged Conservative Party further right throughout his terms (deliberately or just as a result of his own nature) and therefore appealing more to hardcore right-wingers?

[Goaswerfraiejen]

Nanos came out today to confirm the NDP-Liberal statistical tie: looks like the NDP really is a viable alternative! It's shaping up to be a bloody interesting election day (and subsequent Parliamentary session), that's for sure!

[RodeoRanch]

I'm changed my mind. I'm going to vote NDP. Jack Layton has run a fine campaign and I was very impressed with his interview with Peter Mansbridge. I voted NDP last election and candidate is still the same fellow so I'm happy voting for him again.