[Hugin & Munin]

"I smell shapeshifter!" announced Korabas.

"Thats my feet!" shouted Ruse.

"no somewhere close by, theres a faceless man!" screamed korabs as two groups seemed to form in the arena, singling out Merrid and himself. "dont you know who i am!"

"If he has no face, then how does he smell our feet!" shouted kalse, as they torn him to pieces for daring to question their cleanliness!

13 Players still alive: barghast, fener, galayn lord, hood's path, kalse, korabas, liosan, merrid, omtose, osseric, rashan, ruse, silanah

7 votes to lynch, 7 votes to go to night.

5 Votes for merrid ( korabas, omtose, hood's path, silanah, fener )
7 Votes for korabas ( kalse, galayn lord, merrid, osseric, rashan, barghast, ruse )

Players not voted: liosan

Korabas has been lynched, they were in the Jernau Faction

night will be resolved asap. your credits will be updated appropriately.

[Rashan]

Nice scene...

I want my credits updated "inappropriately" please.

[Hugin & Munin]

all captains bet 50

Seven of Hearts
Nine of Hearts
Queen of Diamonds
Nine of Clubs
Four of Diamonds

It is day 4

12 Players still alive: barghast, fener, galayn lord, hood's path, kalse, liosan, merrid, omtose, osseric, rashan, ruse, silanah

7 votes to lynch, 6 votes to go to night.


Players not voted: barghast, fener, galayn lord, hood's path, kalse, liosan, merrid, omtose, osseric, rashan, ruse, silanah

This post has been edited by Hugin & Munin: 05 March 2011 - 01:39 PM

[Galayn Lord]

Korabas, on 05 March 2011 - 01:37 AM, said:

Well I can't wait any longer. I didn't want to do this but for everyone's sake.

Looks like I need to pull out a reveal to save my sorry ass thanks to the epic fail by GL. Even though it will only be temporary as the FM will have to waste a night action in killing me. Since I'm on my way out I need to get some information out to the masses.

I'm Bavedict the FM hunter. My job is to find the FM. I have the ability to do a find on a player to determine if they are a shapshifter. I've already done finds on Rashan and Barghast and they both came up clean. At the resolution of the last card game I was informed that the FM became a member of my faction. So Team J you are now harboring the FM. Also, I was notified that he came over at the resolution of the card game and not after a lynch. So if anyone from team J knows who that player is that moved over then you now know who the FM is

I tried to trick them to reveling themselves by trying to get them to out someone from their previous faction but they probably didn't know anybody on that faction same as me. I thought it worth an effort to see if anyone took the bait.

So if you would like to keep someone around that could help you find the FM at least maybe for one more night then please vote out Merrid. We might get lucky and the FM won't be able to see this post until after the lynch has gone through and won't be able to change his night action to off me.

Alright, I made a mistake. Though I can't say it is entirely my fault that Korabas was lynched, seeing as he was voted for several times.

Moving on, this reveal could hand us the FM. I would trust this reveal, regardless of that suspicious last line (which isn't entirely that suspicious). Korab calls out the one who knows the newly acquired J recruit. The way it seems, the captain of team J would definitely know who this is. I am not sure if there are any special roles that allows a life to see down their command chain, but if there is than at least one other should know who the FM is. If the J leader was to move against the FM, it would place him in a dangerous position all around. additionally, the J leader would have to trust the random faction players to go after the FM and not out the leader. It's a tough situation no matter which direction you come at it.

My only concern is that we may be too late to make a move against the FM. New cards are out on the table, and if Korab was telling the truth, the FM has more than likely taken a new shape by now.

[Ruse]

Galayn Lord, on 05 March 2011 - 02:51 PM, said:

Korabas, on 05 March 2011 - 01:37 AM, said:

Well I can't wait any longer. I didn't want to do this but for everyone's sake.

Looks like I need to pull out a reveal to save my sorry ass thanks to the epic fail by GL. Even though it will only be temporary as the FM will have to waste a night action in killing me. Since I'm on my way out I need to get some information out to the masses.

I'm Bavedict the FM hunter. My job is to find the FM. I have the ability to do a find on a player to determine if they are a shapshifter. I've already done finds on Rashan and Barghast and they both came up clean. At the resolution of the last card game I was informed that the FM became a member of my faction. So Team J you are now harboring the FM. Also, I was notified that he came over at the resolution of the card game and not after a lynch. So if anyone from team J knows who that player is that moved over then you now know who the FM is

I tried to trick them to reveling themselves by trying to get them to out someone from their previous faction but they probably didn't know anybody on that faction same as me. I thought it worth an effort to see if anyone took the bait.

So if you would like to keep someone around that could help you find the FM at least maybe for one more night then please vote out Merrid. We might get lucky and the FM won't be able to see this post until after the lynch has gone through and won't be able to change his night action to off me.

Alright, I made a mistake. Though I can't say it is entirely my fault that Korabas was lynched, seeing as he was voted for several times.

Moving on, this reveal could hand us the FM. I would trust this reveal, regardless of that suspicious last line (which isn't entirely that suspicious). Korab calls out the one who knows the newly acquired J recruit. The way it seems, the captain of team J would definitely know who this is. I am not sure if there are any special roles that allows a life to see down their command chain, but if there is than at least one other should know who the FM is. If the J leader was to move against the FM, it would place him in a dangerous position all around. additionally, the J leader would have to trust the random faction players to go after the FM and not out the leader. It's a tough situation no matter which direction you come at it.

My only concern is that we may be too late to make a move against the FM. New cards are out on the table, and if Korab was telling the truth, the FM has more than likely taken a new shape by now.

If the guilt becomes to much to bear, I know some guys that will string you right up.

How can we trust any of this reveal? It was a pack of lies to save Korabas' hide. Shouldn't the CF have told us if Korabas was a Finder, etc? If the J captain knew who the FM was, I think they would act. I believe all factions would rather lynch the FM first, and would entertain any good case.

And how could the FM change shapes when there has been no NK?

Unless you're confirming Korabas' tale by confessing to be the J captain, Special Role, or recruit in question & therefore possess knowledge concerning the FM...

[Galayn Lord]

Ruse, on 05 March 2011 - 03:08 PM, said:

Galayn Lord, on 05 March 2011 - 02:51 PM, said:

Korabas, on 05 March 2011 - 01:37 AM, said:

Well I can't wait any longer. I didn't want to do this but for everyone's sake.

Looks like I need to pull out a reveal to save my sorry ass thanks to the epic fail by GL. Even though it will only be temporary as the FM will have to waste a night action in killing me. Since I'm on my way out I need to get some information out to the masses.

I'm Bavedict the FM hunter. My job is to find the FM. I have the ability to do a find on a player to determine if they are a shapshifter. I've already done finds on Rashan and Barghast and they both came up clean. At the resolution of the last card game I was informed that the FM became a member of my faction. So Team J you are now harboring the FM. Also, I was notified that he came over at the resolution of the card game and not after a lynch. So if anyone from team J knows who that player is that moved over then you now know who the FM is

I tried to trick them to reveling themselves by trying to get them to out someone from their previous faction but they probably didn't know anybody on that faction same as me. I thought it worth an effort to see if anyone took the bait.

So if you would like to keep someone around that could help you find the FM at least maybe for one more night then please vote out Merrid. We might get lucky and the FM won't be able to see this post until after the lynch has gone through and won't be able to change his night action to off me.

Alright, I made a mistake. Though I can't say it is entirely my fault that Korabas was lynched, seeing as he was voted for several times.

Moving on, this reveal could hand us the FM. I would trust this reveal, regardless of that suspicious last line (which isn't entirely that suspicious). Korab calls out the one who knows the newly acquired J recruit. The way it seems, the captain of team J would definitely know who this is. I am not sure if there are any special roles that allows a life to see down their command chain, but if there is than at least one other should know who the FM is. If the J leader was to move against the FM, it would place him in a dangerous position all around. additionally, the J leader would have to trust the random faction players to go after the FM and not out the leader. It's a tough situation no matter which direction you come at it.

My only concern is that we may be too late to make a move against the FM. New cards are out on the table, and if Korab was telling the truth, the FM has more than likely taken a new shape by now.

If the guilt becomes to much to bear, I know some guys that will string you right up.

How can we trust any of this reveal? It was a pack of lies to save Korabas' hide. Shouldn't the CF have told us if Korabas was a Finder, etc? If the J captain knew who the FM was, I think they would act. I believe all factions would rather lynch the FM first, and would entertain any good case.

And how could the FM change shapes when there has been no NK?

Unless you're confirming Korabas' tale by confessing to be the J captain, Special Role, or recruit in question & therefore possess knowledge concerning the FM...

We cannot assume all of it was lies. In fact, he did admit to being team J, and his special role. The information was very precise, and therefore less likely to be lies. He outlines that he had performed finds on both Barghast and Rashan, and indicates that the FM changes teams after the cards are dealt. I'm not saying these things are completely true, however, in their precision and detail, it is very unlikely that Korabas would have made these up. What would be his motivation to do so? Of course, we could say he was trying to save his ass. Despite this, a part of his reveal has turned up true. We should test the rest of it by however means we can. We should not just completely ignore a reveal like this, as they are often very useful. The context of the reveal is suspect, but we should at least discuss the probability of it being true in light of the recent turn of events -- mainly, that Korabas did reveal his true faction, and that the rest of the information may be too detailed to be a lie.

edit: tema to team!

This post has been edited by Galayn Lord: 05 March 2011 - 03:18 PM

[Ruse]

We already knew Korabas' faction, it was only confirmed. How could any other part of the reveal be true if his role as Finder was not? There's no way to test the parts about Barg & Rashan. He would have used them because they aren't already known to be associated with any faction (at least as far as I can recall).

[Galayn Lord]

The very fact that his role was not revealed may be an indication of a special role or rank in his faction. It is an oddity in of itself. Does this mean we may have actually hit one of the FMs? You'd think that would come up as well. And if he was a life, or a second, ot the leader, he would have CF'd as such. I'm not all to sure what it means.

[Ruse]

Galayn Lord, on 05 March 2011 - 03:29 PM, said:

The very fact that his role was not revealed may be an indication of a special role or rank in his faction. It is an oddity in of itself. Does this mean we may have actually hit one of the FMs? You'd think that would come up as well. And if he was a life, or a second, ot the leader, he would have CF'd as such. I'm not all to sure what it means.

Have all other lynches had their roles revealed? If so, it would indicate something were it absent on this one. Perhaps a mod oversight?

[Ruse]

Ruse, on 05 March 2011 - 03:46 PM, said:

Galayn Lord, on 05 March 2011 - 03:29 PM, said:

The very fact that his role was not revealed may be an indication of a special role or rank in his faction. It is an oddity in of itself. Does this mean we may have actually hit one of the FMs? You'd think that would come up as well. And if he was a life, or a second, ot the leader, he would have CF'd as such. I'm not all to sure what it means.

Have all other lynches had their roles revealed? If so, it would indicate something were it absent on this one. Perhaps a mod oversight?

OK, checked back - no roles have been revealed in CFs. Ignore my previous post.

[Galayn Lord]

Ruse, on 05 March 2011 - 03:58 PM, said:

Ruse, on 05 March 2011 - 03:46 PM, said:

Galayn Lord, on 05 March 2011 - 03:29 PM, said:

The very fact that his role was not revealed may be an indication of a special role or rank in his faction. It is an oddity in of itself. Does this mean we may have actually hit one of the FMs? You'd think that would come up as well. And if he was a life, or a second, ot the leader, he would have CF'd as such. I'm not all to sure what it means.

Have all other lynches had their roles revealed? If so, it would indicate something were it absent on this one. Perhaps a mod oversight?

OK, checked back - no roles have been revealed in CFs. Ignore my previous post.

Seeing as this is the case then we can not claim that Korabas is lying just because his find role was not revealed in the CF. It would seem that aside from the desperation of the post, there is little reason for us to disregard the reveal as a lie.

edit: added just

This post has been edited by Galayn Lord: 05 March 2011 - 04:07 PM

[Ruse]

I don't know, I haven't decided if I believe any of it yet. It just doesn't sit well with me.

What can you put forth to support any of his reveal? I'm not closed just skeptical.

[Galayn Lord]

Ruse, on 05 March 2011 - 04:22 PM, said:

I don't know, I haven't decided if I believe any of it yet. It just doesn't sit well with me.

What can you put forth to support any of his reveal? I'm not closed just skeptical.

Like you say, we won't be 100% certain that Korab is telling the truth. Basically it is all speculation.

It has always been a mistake to ignore a reveal, especially one of the first major reveals, in a game. Though this reveal is smothered in desperate need-to-save-my-own-assedness, I still think the rule applied (rule? more like custom). First big reveals have been found often to be the truth. This is all speculation of course.

Secondly, there isn't anything obviously false in the reveal. Nothing seems like a blatant lie. There are some claims made, but these are detailed. This is one of the reasons that I am leaning towards Korab telling the truth.

Finally, Korab does tell the truth in that he reveals his faction. Yes, we already knew that. But the reveal itself has delivered at least one verifiable truth, and no indisputable lies.

There is less reason for us to disregard the reveal than there is to take heed in what was revealed. Nothing is certain, but this slight tilt to the balance is what drives me to consider that Korab was telling the truth.

[Ruse]

OK, let's say I buy the whole thing. Who do you propose to push as FM?

[Galayn Lord]

Ruse, on 05 March 2011 - 04:46 PM, said:

OK, let's say I buy the whole thing. Who do you propose to push as FM?

I'm not too sure who to push for that. I'm not even sure we have any solid evidence against any proposed FM. Though, as I said before, it would be up to a particular member of the J team, or their leader, to push for the newly acquired recruit/ FM that Korabas told us about. Then again, it may be too late seeing as a new hand of cards went out again. And if we believe Korabas, then that gives the FM another opportunity to switch.

[Ruse]

I looked for a while yesterday, didn't see anything solid on the people most likely, but with new info (still assuming) may give something elso to look for

So we wait for Leader J to step up???

Edit: changed Team to LEader

This post has been edited by Ruse: 05 March 2011 - 07:00 PM

[Hugin & Munin]

jernau bets 75

[Galayn Lord]

Ruse, on 05 March 2011 - 05:07 PM, said:

I looked for a while yesterday, didn't see anything solid on the people most likely, but with new info (still assuming) may give something elso to look for

So we wait for Team J to step up???

I'm thinking this may be the only way. though it is extremely risky, and we may be better off, at least for now, trying to demolish other factions. Im not so sure though. I'll check back in a couple hours.

[Merrid]

I've just had a thought - if Korabas was telling the truth about the FM switching to Team J, isn't there an obvious solution to the FM?

Captain J needs to fold - and whichever Captain wins needs to cash in the lives wagered for the hand. One of the traded players will be the FM, since he's back at the bottom of the chain on Team J. I realize that might seems suspicious given my supposed allegiance but if I were the Captain I'd do it in a heartbeat. If the rule about "CF is faction only" is really hard and fast, and the FM and the other role are on factions, then we may never really know if we hit the FM or not. In which case, it makes sense to press our advantage wherever it comes.

Back later with more.

[Osseric]

Merrid, on 05 March 2011 - 07:05 PM, said:

I've just had a thought - if Korabas was telling the truth about the FM switching to Team J, isn't there an obvious solution to the FM?

Captain J needs to fold - and whichever Captain wins needs to cash in the lives wagered for the hand. One of the traded players will be the FM, since he's back at the bottom of the chain on Team J. I realize that might seems suspicious given my supposed allegiance but if I were the Captain I'd do it in a heartbeat. If the rule about "CF is faction only" is really hard and fast, and the FM and the other role are on factions, then we may never really know if we hit the FM or not. In which case, it makes sense to press our advantage wherever it comes.

Back later with more.

except Jelunga just pushed heavily.
I'm seriously sceptical about korab's reveal. largely b/c it has some glaring holes in it.

bottom line being: what good woudl the reveal do, except possibly keeling him alive?
if we lynched Merid, the next day would basically invite an implosion in his team to find the FM. how do any of us picture that?

also, since we still haven't had any deathst that weren't directly related t the card game, how would the FM switch allegiances?
I swear, his reveal would've mademuch more sense if he suggested "one of Craiklyns is the FM". Teh way he phrased it was "hey, let's beat on the faction that''s down, so that my faction can get majority. Oh, btw, i'm the FM finder, so you don't want to kill me, even though I'm playing for my faction to win, despite the fact that the FM is hiding in it. it's not important, because i'l get him later if i'm alive, right now all that's important is that we give my team overwhelming majority, see?"

Even if we take what Korab said at face value, then the FM is on the Merid train pre-revea, or someone that voted Korab postreveal.