[Fener]

 Osseric, on 19 January 2011 - 11:22 AM, said:

Hey guys, sorry for the late appearance, was sleeping when the game started, then had work, then dinner with gf's family...busy day, only now got time, and not much at that. Will be more free tomorrow.

Anyway, not much to go on. This post stood out to me though:

 Fener, on 18 January 2011 - 04:53 PM, said:

So basic strategy: lynch every day because it's double the odds of hitting scum.

lolwut? Maths fail. If there are, say, 4 scum, and we lynch an inno today, there is a 4/15 chance that the lynched person is linked to scum. That's only slightly better odds (the trend holds throughout the game), but is offset by the fact that if they were linked to scum, said scum dies a full day-night cycle after, thus getting off a kill, so you're 2 innos down for 1 scum anyway. That's not to say we shouldn't lynch every day - not lynching is only a potentially desirable outcome for town in an endgame situation, but you presented bad logic to justify what should already be our basic strategy anyway, regardless of set-up. Weird.

EDIT - added 'already'

I think you are the math failure here... we get to lynch one guy every day. That guy has a X-in-16 chance of being scum (where X is probably equal to somewhere between 3 and 6, given typical ratios and the mechanics of this game). Every lynch provides what is essentially a second, free lynch. So even if the first guy lynched is an inno, you now have an X-in15 chance of scum being "collared" out of the game tomorrow. That amounts to X/16 + X/15. That is "very close" to doubling your odds of lynching scum with a single lynch (it's actually slightly higher than doubling your odds).

The actual results have nothing to do with the statistical odds of those results, other than showing a likely standard distribution along a parabellum given a large sample size. We only get one sample: this game.

[Fener]

 Omtose, on 19 January 2011 - 03:28 PM, said:

Fine in the exact context of the conversation that you were having with merrid.

 Merrid, on 19 January 2011 - 11:56 AM, said:

read the rules post

shin even under lined it

no one knows who is on there collar, the scum may know who the other scum are, but from the op I'm not to sure, but even if the scum know whose on which team, they have just as much chance of hitting the person chained to themselves as hitting a RI-RI chain

 Osseric, on 19 January 2011 - 12:21 PM, said:

There's nothing that says that can't change though, there may very well be an ability that relates to discovering who someone is chained to, but we can't be sure of that at this point, so we must operate on the information supplied, which is nobody knows who anybody is chained to.

EDIT - added last clause and changed wording of first clause

Oh hey look at no point are you or him referring to peoples ignorance changing. In fact looking at it in the correct light makes it even more scummy. That and your defense really leave something lacking.

Vote Osseric


Sil you need to bold.

Osseric couldn't add 2 and 2 to save his life, but your attack is pretty pathetic. I think Osseric's post reads perfectly clearly and you are drawing way too much out of it for Day 1.

[Fener]

I don't really like to vote people for bad early game cases because it's way more likely that an inno makes an early game bad case than scum. But a lynch is doubly good in this game sooooooo

Vote Omtose

For being the most viable candidate IMO.

[Sorrit]

I'm really not going to be on much today, and I aplogize for that.

Definitely Osseric is overreacting while Omtose is overpushing his own misunderstanding, but on the plus side it's a pretty contentful day 1 by ordinary standards.

[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 1. 5 hours and 36 minutes remaining

16 Players still alive: Ampelas, Barghast, Fener, Galayn Lord, Hood's Path, Kalse, Korabas, Liosan, Merrid, Omtose, Osseric, Rashan, Ruse, Silanah, Sorrit, Tellan

9 votes to lynch, 8 votes to go to night.

2 Votes for Osseric ( Silanah, Omtose )
1 Vote for Hood's Path ( Liosan )
1 Vote for Fener ( Hood's Path )
2 Votes for Omtose ( Ampelas, Fener )

Players not voted: Barghast, Galayn Lord, Kalse, Korabas, Merrid, Osseric, Rashan, Ruse, Sorrit, Tellan

[Tellan]

i'm going to lay my vote with Omtose. I think that he got some heat and deflected it all very nicely to Osseric. Although Osseric reaction was a bit over the top there was no case in the first place.

Vote Omtose

I may not get back on until quite close to night time. i'll do my best.

[Ruse]

the woman just carried me laptop in and i think looking at it omtose is 3-2 at mo. we need a lynch so

vote omtose

i can barely breath let alone think. goodnight gents.

[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 1. 4 hours and 16 minutes remaining

16 Players still alive: Ampelas, Barghast, Fener, Galayn Lord, Hood's Path, Kalse, Korabas, Liosan, Merrid, Omtose, Osseric, Rashan, Ruse, Silanah, Sorrit, Tellan

9 votes to lynch, 8 votes to go to night.

2 Votes for Osseric ( Silanah, Omtose )
1 Vote for Hood's Path ( Liosan )
1 Vote for Fener ( Hood's Path )
4 Votes for Omtose ( Ampelas, Fener, Tellan, Ruse )

Players not voted: Barghast, Galayn Lord, Kalse, Korabas, Merrid, Osseric, Rashan, Sorrit,

[Path-Shaper]

I'll leave you in the capable hands of whoever is sharing the P-S skin with me. Nighty night...

- T.

[Liosan]

Well looks like another no lynch on day one... WILL WE NEVER LEARN!!! oh the humanity.

remove vote

vote Omtose

for being a viable day one lynch ( the only one?) and for jumping on something so trivial and then defending his poor case. Not sure that makes him scum, but it makes him silly and if there is one thing I hate...its silliness.

[Rashan]

Really, a vote for omtose because of a bad case? a vote for omtose because of silliness?!

vote Omtose

Because there seems to be little choice in the matter this day. If we want a lynch, this is all we have.

[Kalse]

Tried to get on when server was down, only just got chance to return...

Reading it all through Osseric's comment seems innocent enough really, it could be misconstrued but only if taking that one sentence into account and not his whole post. Osserics defense seems a bit mad but it can wind you up to have something simple you say get twisted.

so for me it is down to Omtose and Silanah, whose relationship in itself has made me suspicious

Quote

Oh hey look at no point are you or him referring to peoples ignorance changing. In fact looking at it in the correct light makes it even more scummy. That and your defense really leave something lacking.

Vote Osseric


Sil you need to bold.

but then again i could be reading too much into things, and we could do with a lynch right?


Vote Omtose

Edit: added quote

This post has been edited by Kalse: 19 January 2011 - 10:36 PM

[Osseric]

Vote Omtose


Because his vote on me right after Sil smacked of following.

[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 1. 2 hours and 32 minutes remaining


16 Players still alive: Ampelas, Barghast, Fener, Galayn Lord, Hood's Path, Kalse, Korabas, Liosan, Merrid, Omtose, Osseric, Rashan, Ruse, Silanah, Sorrit, Tellan

9 votes to lynch, 8 votes to go to night.

2 Votes for Osseric ( Silanah, Omtose )
1 Vote for Fener ( Hood's Path )
8 Votes for Omtose ( Ampelas, Fener, Tellan, Ruse, Liosan, Rashan, Kalse, Osseric)

Players not voted: Barghast, Galayn Lord, Korabas, Merrid, Sorrit

[Path-Shaper]

Shin here -

I'll be a bit late to resolve things because I have a lesson to attend. But have no fear, I shall be back online, at most, an hour after timeout.

[Merrid]

I'm not sure theirs much of a case here but we need a lynch so i think its hammer time

Vote Omtose

[Liosan]

holy hell...we got a lynch! I just hope that Omtose is tied to HP

 Rashan, on 19 January 2011 - 10:18 PM, said:

Really, a vote for omtose because of a bad case? a vote for omtose because of silliness?!

vote Omtose

Because there seems to be little choice in the matter this day. If we want a lynch, this is all we have.

It's day... what do you expect... generally scum don't just fall into our lap.

You're vote "Because we have little choice" is just as awful as silliness or a bad case. I know your horse is rather high, but you really should consider getting off of it.

pot...kettle...etc

your little holier than thou vote smacks of scummy righteousness

[Merrid]

Liosan can you just highlight the text that put HP on your rader for me?

[Merrid]

Liosan can you just highlight the text that put HP on your rader for me?

[Galayn Lord]

Hey guys
Forums were down this morning when I tried to check up, and after that i've had a very busy day.

It looks like we lynched Omtose. it seemed sufficintly random for a day 1 vote. I just hope I ain't the one chained to him....