[Path-Shaper]

Shin's waiting for Vengey to show up is really going to backfire on him in a major way. Vengey isn't showing his hand early at all, which is helping him out. Shin's really lucky here that Morgy doesn't have him lined up for tonight's kill.

Hood, on 27 April 2010 - 01:24 PM, said:

Quiet you!

Aaaaaagh! Damn you Alkend for putting him back at L-1. There is a reasonable chance Korv is the killer, but Tulas.... Again, do I risk NK to put things off until the next day? If Korv is not scum, my case on him may bring the suspicions back to me.

If I was killer, who would I kill? Not D'riss. Not Tulas. Probably not Eloth. Maybe Sorrit. Or Korbas.....

I looked back, and Tulas always shows up in about an hour.

My action is find on Korbas because of his case on Galain. I might change to Eloth.

Or I might be dead.

Funny of him to trust the odds here

Hood, on 27 April 2010 - 01:36 PM, said:

Change that to Find on Eloth.

Thank you.


If Tulas doesn't come on, I'll just risk NK.... Could be a totally horrible horrible decision which could make the the fucking goat of the game, but I'm making the decision with 2 things in mind.

1) 1/8 chance the kill is me. If the killer knows Tulas and/or another symp, that becomes 1/7 or 1/6. Not terrible odds.

2) I have a history of being NK'd early in games. If I"m not killed randomly on night 1 or 2, I tend to last until end game. Knock on wood.

Hood, on 27 April 2010 - 02:42 PM, said:

Quote

. I was writing a case but that is on hold for now sorry.

This line from Tulas' post tells me I may not have anything to worry about game-wise...

Hope he's ok for realz though.

This post has been edited by Path-Shaper: 27 April 2010 - 02:52 PM

[Path-Shaper]

Well, talk about a wasted day for the town. Assume today that Shin reveals and they lynch Tulas, but is killed in turn, it's Korbas vs 5 players. That's 2 lynches to get it correct. Still not great odds for the scum, but right now nobody is giving Korbas much of a look, and they may be able to determine which symps are gone.

Alkend - Ment - Peng Ji, Court counselor (possible symp)
D'riss - Edrigan - Cen Pi, General who Pacifies the North (possible symp)
Eloth - GK - Chen Lin, Commandant of the He Nei command (possible symp)
Galain - HD - Wu Shi, Imperial Libationer (possible scum)
Sorrit - The Dude - Guo Tu, Official in the Ministry of Justice (possible scum)

Korbas - Morgy - Jian Yong, an Official in the Ministry of Works (possible scum)

A name-reveal will force Morgy to make up a name but his 'role name' can stay the same because Sorrit has a similar role name (Official). They and Galain can be cleared of being symps. But each of the other three (Alkend, D'riss, Eloth) has a name of a symp role. So the players can't automatically assume that one particular symp is gone, although they can deduce it fairly well, I'd guess (probably clear D'riss if you assume Gamelon was the 'General' and clear Eloth if you assume Kesso was the 'Commandant,' and then clear Alkend when Vengey comes up Counselor by Shin's reveal).

Thus, I see all three of Alkend, D'riss, and Eloth going to VPI/CI by virtue of Shin's reveal and a name reveal (D'riss and Alkend would be CI, Eloth VPI based upon assumption that Kesso was the symp). So Korbas only has a 1/3 shot of winning if the last two lynches are in the group of him, Galain, and Sorrit.

Of course, players may not reveal or realize this information can be deduced, but that's how I see it as possibly happening...

[Path-Shaper]

Morgy's going off the information he knows at the moment. I suspect his plans will change quite a bit.

Korbas, on 27 April 2010 - 04:35 PM, said:

Hmpf, I can't decide where to go from here.

Alkend could work, the case against him is absurd. There's only the difficulty to lynch but that could easily be because of his case being weak. You know, I think I'm going to do a 180 and start defending him. That might fan the flames after Sorrit's symp claim.

Technically I should take out Sorrit because people see him as an RI it seems. However, he seems not to be particularly suspicious of me and has not shown himself to be a particularly dangerous player up until now.

D'riss is also one who seems innocent to most I think, and he's shown some signs of being willing and able to push once he sees something suspicious. Then again, he's a new player and should be easier to push around the some of the others.

Eloth is also a good target. I can't say exactly why but I just want to kill him.

for now I'll place Eloth as my target.

Korbas, on 27 April 2010 - 04:42 PM, said:

scrap that. Put D'riss in there instead.

Korbas, on 27 April 2010 - 04:36 PM, said:

And how are you guys enjoying the game up there in SH?

Path-Shaper, on 27 April 2010 - 04:43 PM, said:

Oh, I've got pages and pages of analysis, as usual

I'm enjoying it. It's actually kind of nice to be dead early in a long game, for once. I forget how much I enjoy just watching the game unfold.

Path-Shaper, on 27 April 2010 - 04:58 PM, said:

Korbas, on 27 April 2010 - 04:36 PM, said:

And how are you guys enjoying the game up there in SH?

And I, on the other hand, am also enjoying it come near the end-game, which means my setup can't have been *that* bad.

Getting to use all these characters for something is fun, though with so many dead it may be a challenge finding new officers for the next games! Definitely glad I purposely left out of this one Yuan Shao's top 2 generals and his sons. Some of the characters I picked for this one were actually kind of pulled out of nowhere - did not foresee having 21 players for this game, either, and had to scramble to find new names before it started.

And best of all, longer game means more scenes so I can space out the book quotes more and less reading per-scene for you guys!

-D'rek

This post has been edited by Path-Shaper: 27 April 2010 - 05:00 PM

[Path-Shaper]

I'm in MM ending the day so that's probably why it was wonky. It's all working and done now.
-D'rek

This post has been edited by Path-Shaper: 27 April 2010 - 04:54 PM

[alt146]

Hmm, morgy as the last killer is very dangerous, I think he has a chance. That said team inno isnt completely hopeless, let's home shin can use what he knows to figure out who the last killer is.

I havent read the whole of spoilers (need to head to bed soon) but what happened with Lio's guard? Would keeping Spite alive have worked? I tried to CI myself (to the other RI's at least) off of Sorrit's semi-PM quote as an example of how to use PM wording subtley. Did any of the RI's notice that I pointed out exactly what Sorrit had changed in the wording he used in his reveal without actually confirming that I'd seen the exact same PM? I'm guessing not considering how often my name was still bandied around after that.

PB, you really thought I played well? I've been super distracted and had no idea who was scum, to be honest I would probably have guessed HP.

How is the manager going? I'm probably going to have to redo the timing system sometime soon (maybe I'll have time this week) to allow for weekend freezes and other anomolies. Any other suggestions for features while I'm at it?

[Path-Shaper]

alt146, on 27 April 2010 - 08:38 PM, said:

I havent read the whole of spoilers (need to head to bed soon) but what happened with Lio's guard? Would keeping Spite alive have worked? I tried to CI myself (to the other RI's at least) off of Sorrit's semi-PM quote as an example of how to use PM wording subtley. Did any of the RI's notice that I pointed out exactly what Sorrit had changed in the wording he used in his reveal without actually confirming that I'd seen the exact same PM? I'm guessing not considering how often my name was still bandied around after that.

If he wasn't lynched I would've given Gavin the opportunity to break the guard-lock by losing his killing power and Morgy would become the lone killer, though they could still talk off thread. Sounds rigged like it would CI Gavin, but I would've hinted at it heavily in scene too.

alt146, on 27 April 2010 - 08:38 PM, said:

How is the manager going? I'm probably going to have to redo the timing system sometime soon (maybe I'll have time this week) to allow for weekend freezes and other anomolies. Any other suggestions for features while I'm at it?

Weekend freezes and advancing/backtracking the clock would definitely be useful. The vote-weight modifier could also maybe be altered: right now it is a "secret" modifier so for example when The Dude was at 0-weight his votes still incremented the count by 1 in the report. That might be preferred in some cases, but in this case I would've rathered it not increment the number when he did it.

Other stuff... maybe putting the alts in the vote report in alphabetical order? The random order works, I guess, but I always keep fearing that it's grouping by faction or some such.

[Tapper]

Personally, I think 'secret' voting strength is preferred to it being open. Extra votes usually are a result of a role. I'd definately ask you to not change it to open until after Spycraft 2.0...

yes, I'm obsessed by my own game...

[Path-Shaper]

Shin's feeling exactly how he should after wasting yesterday waiting for Tulas's comments.

Hood, on 27 April 2010 - 09:40 PM, said:

Good to know. Good to be alive.

Tulas sure has been a fountain of information!

[Path-Shaper]

@alt, Yeah man, I thought you played a very solid game. You had quality posts when you were around. I'm still looking at Ed as the current front runner for MOTM because he's made some great cases and despite getting the 'new guy' label, he's having no trouble going at it with old hats like Morgy. You guys have been able to figure out some really solid play and strategy; that plan to keep Spite alive would have worked and broken the game, so D'rek had to put in a potential fix, although you lynched Spite anyway and solved the problem.

Shin's had a great game with his NAs, but I think yesterday went so poorly for him that he's going to fall out of front runner contention.

Although it probably goes without saying that Morgoth will get the award if he can manage to pull off an upset victory, but there is a LOT working against him right now.

-pb

This post has been edited by Path-Shaper: 27 April 2010 - 10:18 PM

[Path-Shaper]

Tapper, I'm totally obsessed by your game, too.

I may be going on Vacation right at the end of May, so I'm actually trying to find a way to make sure that if I'm gone, that I"ll be able to Mafia it up, if only on a limited basis, or possibly slightly push back the vacation a week or so to make sure I have 2 weeks to play/die before I leave.

-pb

[Path-Shaper]

Oo, Shin is going to have to force his hand early here, I think. GK just dropped a vote, The Dude hinted he'd be interested in a vote like that, and we know Vengey had a plan to drop a fat case on Shin anyway.

The bad thing is that it's going to make Sorrit or Eloth look like scum. Role reveals will be KEY to make sure they can eliminate possible symps from consideration. Will they figure it out?

Eloth, on 27 April 2010 - 10:22 PM, said:

Well i feel like i missing some detail that for sure. I'm slightly pissed as I feel that the plan I came up with could have very likely have won us the game. Liosan could have at least told us who his action was against . We could have ruled that person out as his killer.

Your right about Tulus his posts are too low it would bring attention on to him.

Hood's Path could have been easily a distancing vote I've mentioned it a few times. If I was the other main scum it the move I would do. It the most practical move that scum can do.

Vote Hood's Path

[Path-Shaper]

Korbas, on 27 April 2010 - 10:40 PM, said:

I'm getting more and more convinced of HP as my symp. IF he isn't, well then he deserves to be awarded the role posthumously.

Path-Shaper, on 27 April 2010 - 10:51 PM, said:

Posthumously? Is that a kill order I hear? =D

Korbas, on 28 April 2010 - 12:26 AM, said:

no, it's a small small hope for victory.

This post has been edited by Path-Shaper: 28 April 2010 - 12:42 AM

[Path-Shaper]

Hood, on 27 April 2010 - 11:45 PM, said:

Well, Tulas hasn't been completely useless (only recently). I can probably PI Alkend because Tulas switched from Sorrit to Alkend at the "tipping point" of 4 votes on day 3.

I can't wait to hear his case. Hopefully it's not on me, because that won't help.


I also hope this lynch of me doesn't get too far off the ground, again, I want Tulas to fucking contribute something so I can learn something new. Grrrrrrrrrrr.

[alt146]

Path-Shaper, on 27 April 2010 - 08:51 PM, said:

alt146, on 27 April 2010 - 08:38 PM, said:

I havent read the whole of spoilers (need to head to bed soon) but what happened with Lio's guard? Would keeping Spite alive have worked? I tried to CI myself (to the other RI's at least) off of Sorrit's semi-PM quote as an example of how to use PM wording subtley. Did any of the RI's notice that I pointed out exactly what Sorrit had changed in the wording he used in his reveal without actually confirming that I'd seen the exact same PM? I'm guessing not considering how often my name was still bandied around after that.

If he wasn't lynched I would've given Gavin the opportunity to break the guard-lock by losing his killing power and Morgy would become the lone killer, though they could still talk off thread. Sounds rigged like it would CI Gavin, but I would've hinted at it heavily in scene too.

alt146, on 27 April 2010 - 08:38 PM, said:

How is the manager going? I'm probably going to have to redo the timing system sometime soon (maybe I'll have time this week) to allow for weekend freezes and other anomolies. Any other suggestions for features while I'm at it?

Weekend freezes and advancing/backtracking the clock would definitely be useful. The vote-weight modifier could also maybe be altered: right now it is a "secret" modifier so for example when The Dude was at 0-weight his votes still incremented the count by 1 in the report. That might be preferred in some cases, but in this case I would've rathered it not increment the number when he did it.

Other stuff... maybe putting the alts in the vote report in alphabetical order? The random order works, I guess, but I always keep fearing that it's grouping by faction or some such.

It's better if mechanics can remain consistent throughout the game, if we had kept spite alive that would have been fairly confusing. Not sure how I would have handled it myself though, I guess it's better that Spite got lynched.

I have a reasonable idea how to implement the time system to allow for more elegant editing of the remaining time. Weekend freeze might be a bit more of a problem, I have a feeling I'm going to have to add some fields to the databases which is always a pain. Still it's about time I bumped up the version number again, I think it's been 0.2b for long enough now

I will be keeping the vote weight as a secret modifier, since it's used in that respect much more often. The manager tracks 'true' and 'displayed' vote numbers, it will only prompt to resolve a lynch when the actual number of votes is correct. In a case like Sorrit's where everyone knew about the reduced voteweight I dont think anyone on thread would have had a problem keeping track of what was going on.

The order of the votes in the report should be the order that the votes are placed in, it was one of the original feature requests. Maybe just keep an eye on how it's behaving with that in mind, let me know if it isnt working that way. The vote page doesnt look at anything like faction or role, so dont worry about that

Path-Shaper, on 27 April 2010 - 10:18 PM, said:

@alt, Yeah man, I thought you played a very solid game. You had quality posts when you were around. I'm still looking at Ed as the current front runner for MOTM because he's made some great cases and despite getting the 'new guy' label, he's having no trouble going at it with old hats like Morgy. You guys have been able to figure out some really solid play and strategy; that plan to keep Spite alive would have worked and broken the game, so D'rek had to put in a potential fix, although you lynched Spite anyway and solved the problem.

Shin's had a great game with his NAs, but I think yesterday went so poorly for him that he's going to fall out of front runner contention.

Although it probably goes without saying that Morgoth will get the award if he can manage to pull off an upset victory, but there is a LOT working against him right now.

-pb

Ed has had a decent game for a new guy. Maybe a little heavyhanded in the application of mafia theory, but pretty solid once he put the numbers etc behind him.

[Gavin]

Interesting game so far, I'm not sold on the only 2 killers but Guard stops them bit to be honest. I think having those 4 Mod kills has managed to even it out nicely though. Even with PB's suicide....

I'm hoping Morgy can pull through with the win here, but chances are slim. He needed to remove HP last night instead of Karosis. If he had I reckon we'd be 50/50 to win it. With HP still around though it makes it much harder and puts Tulas in a very vulnerable spot. Not only that, if gives HP a chance to eliminate suspects as Tulas goes around and votes for them.

I'd guess there are 2 lynches out there before they turn to Korbas, but he will need Tulas around for that.

[Yellow]

D, on 19 April 2010 - 01:10 AM, said:

Korbas - Morgy - Jian Yong (Killer)
Tulas Shorn - Vengeance - Dong Zhao (Symp

For fuck's sake.

[dktorode]

uuuhggh

[Path-Shaper]

Hood, on 28 April 2010 - 06:15 AM, said:

Find on Korbas.


However, if I'm still doing finds tonight rather than revealing and pegging scum, I'm going to be pissed. I can barely remember who I've done finds on. Surprising though, the ones I've been finding, with the exception of Gamelon and Barghast, are all still around. Galain, Sorrit, Eloth and Tulas.

Tomorrow is a work holiday, I might just stay up all night until deadline




TUUUUUUULLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAASSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Alt here and noted.

[Path-Shaper]

Well to Shin's fortune, if he reveals very late and they can't get a lynch, it actually helps his odds with winning the game.

#s are current as of the start of the projected day

6/2 >
5/2 (no lynch, HP killed) (D-Day) >
4/1 (Tulas lynched, ??? killed) >
2/1 (??? lynched, ??? killed) (D-Day)

6/2 >
5/1 (Tulas lynched, HP killed) >
3/1 (??? lynched, ??? killed) (D-Day)

Note that by getting a 'no lynch' in, Korbas is forced to spend an extra day killing someone and it becomes a last-day 3-man showdown. The only way they could achieve that with a Tulas lynch today would be to have no lynch on another day (either by letting it time out or voting night). Otherwise, they're stuck with a 4-player showdown, and Korbas's odds go way up in that situation.

Ultimately, town is in a situation of "two tries to get it right" once you assume Tulas is gone. Those are pretty good odds for the town, ESPECIALLY if people reveal their names and roles and figure out who is CI/VPI.

-pb

This post has been edited by Path-Shaper: 28 April 2010 - 03:13 PM

[Path-Shaper]

Definitely feel bad for Vengey with the accident business. But for the game, this is a critical mistake.

Tulas Shorn, on 28 April 2010 - 03:57 PM, said:

So I ended up going to the emergency room. I had a concussion and was kept at the hospital for all of yesterday. They eventually determined that I could go home and did not have to spend the night. Now I have to go and see my regular doctor.

I read back over the last couple of days and it seems like eloth has really came on strong and started to lead the game. He is the one making cases and seeming to drive lynches. At this point in a game that is the position that scum want to be in.

Vote eloth

Instead of latching on to Tulas as he planned, he is trying to keep his options open and instead reveals to Tulas that Eloth is almost certainly not the master.