Ok, I found the numbers, yes you people are correct, they are a bit off, as a matter of fact, they are backwards.
You want reasoning behind posting such numbers? I've got a theory about doing it, we will see if it fruits into success or if it will result in total failure.
No matter the outcome I assume full responsibility behind it.
I believed the biggest reason was clear: I was thinking out loud if a first day without a lynch actually made it easier for the town or the scum to win , and if it did by what margin.Also, trying to see which party benefited from the single night kill instead of a possible two.
By the way, in case you got some funny ideas, remember; I've got a sword and I'm very skilled in its use.
Now, lets see:
19 player game (Started 20 , one modkill first day , no real results / nothing altered because of it).
2 scums, unknown number of symps.
Winning conditions specify that town only has to lynch/exterminate those two, even if symps survive town still wins.
Day 1 pass without a lynch,no real proof or evidence, so essentially the real game started at night.
Any disagreements so far? Ok, proceeding..
These numbers factor in only random lynching / killing. Remember, I was just trying to understand what the outcome of a 'no lynch day 1' was.
In a game of 19 people with 2 scums, the town has approximately 40% chance of winning. (This is where we started at)
In a game of 18 people with 2 scums, the town has approximately 46% chance of winning. (This is where we would be if the game started now, which in a reasonable way we are, since we have no information from a CF, and the real cases start being build on Day 2)
In a game of 17 people with 2 scums, the town has approximately 44% chance of winning. (This is where we would be if we had 2 night kills or a lynch/night kill combo)
In a game of 16 people with 2 scums, the town has approximately 43% chance of winning. (This is where we would be if we had 2 night kills + lynch combo).
Afaik, looking at them now, it seems a bit better, heh...
Now, I understand some of you might still disagree with them, its only understandable, after all numbers are the best possible way to lie with.Still, no matter how upset or mad that makes you, I believe there will be pleanty of space in SH to further discuss and solve this, and I will happily provide there the source of this statement.Furhter arguement on numbers will only waste valuable time which could be spend in a more productive manner.. like analyzing all this fest that it created for starters.
For the moment, fellow imperials, even if you seem to be readying your pitchforks and torches to lynch me, I have a number of posts to go through that spurred from my initial one. I'm quite confident there's a number of symp/scum hidding in them.
PS: It seems that all this time I've been writing this and reading through other stuff to validate the numbers, something else happened. I didn't see the post what so ever, and if the other folks agree we can continue like this, its fine- we already lost one to a modkill , can't we just pick up where we left of?
Help
Sorrit, on 20 April 2010 - 04:37 PM, said:
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