[Omtose]

If fener wanted out of the game, he'd just ask for modkill. So, I reckon he's definetely doing what he is for a reason. I would imagine that reason would be ignored. And look at that, there have been at least a couple of people encouraging us simply to ignore him, for reasons I think are stupid. Shadows meta reasoning for example-If he was having trouble playing, why not request modkill rather than waste our time.

I don't like fener, and I don't like the people advocating us ignoring him entirely.

[Kalse]

 Eloth, on 18 March 2010 - 06:25 PM, said:

Why would the inquisition let the lynch go through this time, Ruse? That's my only problem with it, if they didn't let it go through last time, why this time?

Which such a mindset, we might as well vote night

/ducks

yesterday, the Inquisition may have submitted their orders before Fener started his antics. They may have reconsidered today.
Secondly, if we started the game with 2 on each watch, as seems sound speculation, a lynch on one of the watches going through would have nearly disabled the other. As such, the Inquisition probably blocked all lynches. Assuming both factions recruited last night, such a possibility does no longer exist, or is at the least a whole lot safer.

If Fener truly is recruited, he may jockey to gain lynch immunity for his own faction, but if we lynch him again and it bounces once more, he and those on his side also know the Inquisitions disposal towards their faction, which is important tactical information, I guess.

[Eloth]

So, instead of perhaps creating an imbalance yesterday, they'd let one go through when they'd have even MORE reason to believe letting the lynch go through would create an imbalance? I'm not understanding that logic, but I might just be thick.

Edit: x-post @Ruse.

This post has been edited by Eloth: 18 March 2010 - 06:34 PM

[Kalse]

Vote Fener

One way or another, we have to test the waters. He has a plan, which is more than what goes for most of us on team inno, I guess - but if he is on a team, keeping him around and waiting for him to get killed/targeted/whatnot is equally dangerous. After all, according to the OP, recruits may gain power. If the lynch bounces, he learns something about the orders of the Inquisition, but so do we. If he does not, we get CF info, which is also definately worth something, if only to see if he was bluffing or not... we get some juicy train analysis for one.

[Eloth]

 Omtose, on 18 March 2010 - 06:31 PM, said:

If fener wanted out of the game, he'd just ask for modkill. So, I reckon he's definetely doing what he is for a reason. I would imagine that reason would be ignored. And look at that, there have been at least a couple of people encouraging us simply to ignore him, for reasons I think are stupid. Shadows meta reasoning for example-If he was having trouble playing, why not request modkill rather than waste our time.

I don't like fener, and I don't like the people advocating us ignoring him entirely.

I agree with this which is why I was looking for anything in his posts other than "please kill me." Such as, is he fingering possible recruits, or something besides that.

[Omtose]

Fener is distracting us. I doubt the inquisition will block it, because they may not want us to keep wasting lynches trying to get fener, and if he lives we may be distracted by him again later.

[Shadow]

I'm not advocating 'ignoring' Fener as much as I'm saying I see no reason he can be lynched today. It's a good point that a prov yesterday was in long before he self-voted, but I'd rather try another candidate than Fener. Let's face it, there are few scenarios in which one of the Watches don't try to kill him (both may try if he's really RI or Inquisition or something else, or the 'other' one if he's recruited) tonight.

[Osseric]

hmmmmmm no Nk huh? ( Sorry, had to do it )


Anyway: I got the exact same vibe from Mockra here. I wouldn't be surprised that Fener is in bed with Serc. ( fingers, and butts, and vegetables aside)

 Mockra, on 18 March 2010 - 02:17 PM, said:

 Serc, on 18 March 2010 - 02:12 PM, said:

Wait, what?

I am really confused by Fener right now, I'm glad to see I'm not the only one. About the only possible explanation I can think of is that he was part of the watch yesterday and wants us to vote him again, knowing that he's not going to die (based on not dying yesterday) and that it will get another free round of recruits. That's pretty far fetched and it has a couple of holes in it, but it's really the only thing I can think of...

I agree, there is definitely more going on here than meets the eye, but with zero information it's hard to tell if this is a bluff, or a double bluff or something even more convoluted. Damn WIFOM. Personally I think we should just ignore him for now, at least until the time he can come online and post at a level we can actually understand.

Mockra - I'm a good vote because a crazy dude mentioned my name once? In a normal game that would be scummy as hell, but I suppose we can play a little bit faster and looser with our inquisition safety net. Still, the vote on Kalse looks a lot like distancing considering it came completely out of the blue, and dropping names as potential lynches is normally scum's favourite way of testing the water.

This screams "get along gang" to me.

OK reading up, and looking at Mockra's vote on Kalse.. to me it seems forced and more of a Meta argument than anything. Fener had mentioned Kalse earlier, and when someone points this out to Mockra, he brushes it off:

 Mockra, on 18 March 2010 - 02:45 PM, said:

@kalse

Ok, I'll admit I missed Fener mentioning you. That's what I get for watching TV and reading thread at the same time. But I wouldn't be surprised if Fener deliberately mentioned his associate(s) in an act of distancing (see what I said about Serc).

What do you want me to question? I don't have any information to work from, and there's a difference between speculation and sounding pretty confident about their stated possibilities. You and Serc strike me as the most likely false speculators.

OK, you want questions. What's your best guess for a possible associate(s) of Fener?

I thought this was a good post too. Mockra seems to have an agenda that doesn't include Fener. And he seems to be going after Kalse for Meta reasons which I don't like, says he wants to change his vote, but doesn't , (wth...)

 Shadow, on 18 March 2010 - 03:13 PM, said:

 Mockra, on 18 March 2010 - 01:54 PM, said:

And self-interest my ass. Obviously I'm not voting for you because I think it helps me somehow. You're just less random than anyone else. I'm not voting fishy-fener. But I'll vote someone else who could be his associate. Frankly, I think it's someone he mentioned - wifoming it up when information is on your side is roled players bread and butter.


And isn't it a safe bet that Fener isn't the inquisition? He can be dealt with later. If I change votes, I think Serc would be a decent bet based on Fener's non-existent but claimed case.

You realize, of course, that this makes no sense, right? You'd vote Serc for a non-existent case from a guy you already don't trust?

It looks a lot like you're trying to force a vote today, Mockra.

At this point I would be more inclined to vote Mockra than Kalse, as he seems to be the one with an ulterior motive. Granted, I could vote Kalse... I am rather ambivilant towards him atm, he does come across as rather pompous, but if I alt'd him correctly.. well, thats not going to change. I know how much it sucks to be the reciepient of a 'You are scum!!!" case.. very hard to defend against.


Here is my thing though... honestly I will vote anyone. here's why. Why in the world would the inquisition let a lynch go through?? what motivation could they have? the game is perfectly balanced still, no NK's last night, and unless the DW or NW failed a recruit attempt last night ( possible but unlikely) then the game is still currently balanced. I would be very very surprised if any lynch we propose is accepted. Even if Kalse, or Mockra or Serc is a leader... why would they allow that lynch to go through? Then their balancing act would be that much tougher. Until there is a NK, and one of the watches loses a team member the inquisition can sit back and watch the sand fall through the hourglass, and hope for day 10 to come that much quicker.

I agree with GL, very surprised that the DW and NW didn't kill anyone last night. Since no kill happened, I wouldn't be surprised if the leaders had to recruit a killer. ( yes thats speculation.. don't lynch me mockra!!)

[Osseric]

 Kalse, on 18 March 2010 - 06:31 PM, said:

 Eloth, on 18 March 2010 - 06:25 PM, said:

Why would the inquisition let the lynch go through this time, Ruse? That's my only problem with it, if they didn't let it go through last time, why this time?

Which such a mindset, we might as well vote night

/ducks

yesterday, the Inquisition may have submitted their orders before Fener started his antics. They may have reconsidered today.
Secondly, if we started the game with 2 on each watch, as seems sound speculation, a lynch on one of the watches going through would have nearly disabled the other. As such, the Inquisition probably blocked all lynches. Assuming both factions recruited last night, such a possibility does no longer exist, or is at the least a whole lot safer.

If Fener truly is recruited, he may jockey to gain lynch immunity for his own faction, but if we lynch him again and it bounces once more, he and those on his side also know the Inquisitions disposal towards their faction, which is important tactical information, I guess.

I guess, it's possible they pre-submitted, but even if they didn't... Why would they let a lynch go through? their goal is balance, thats their VC, until the DW or NW forces their hand with a Kill, they don't have to do anything.

[Kalse]

 Shadow, on 18 March 2010 - 06:41 PM, said:

I'm not advocating 'ignoring' Fener as much as I'm saying I see no reason he can be lynched today. It's a good point that a prov yesterday was in long before he self-voted, but I'd rather try another candidate than Fener. Let's face it, there are few scenarios in which one of the Watches don't try to kill him (both may try if he's really RI or Inquisition or something else, or the 'other' one if he's recruited) tonight.

I would be willing to go for Mockra, but I also think that if we don't act on Fener, we are giving a self-confessed recruit a free ride to the end-game. Out of sight out of mind and all that. It's a bit of damned if you do, damned if you don't thing. Of course, there is also the amusing possibility of him being RI and now claiming he was recruited to draw a lot of night actions his way tonight.

[Shadow]

I basically totally agree with Osseric, FYI.

[Eloth]

Just an FYI, I'm stating in the above post just quoted by Osseric, "why would the inquisition let a FENER lynch go through", not necessarily a lynch of a different player.

Edit: to clarify

This post has been edited by Eloth: 18 March 2010 - 06:49 PM

[Omtose]

There is something of a problem with sitting back and letting the inquisition deal with balance to win.
See, it is entirely possible that the teams will remain even until day 10, with neither gaining an advantage, number of recruits staying even, no one dead, etc.
The problem being that if we wait it out until then, it's unlikely that many, if any, of us will be RI by then.
The best way for us to secure a win is to take out any recruiters, and then leave it even until day 10. This is unlikely however, since we probably won't know when we've taken out all the recruiters. So, we need to look for them, and hope to keep balance.

[Kalse]

 Osseric, on 18 March 2010 - 06:42 PM, said:

Granted, I could vote Kalse... I am rather ambivilant towards him atm, he does come across as rather pompous, but if I alt'd him correctly.. well, thats not going to change.

You're damned right about that. I laid down my golden spoon, got out of my ivory tower, onto my high horse, just to play this game. If I can't look down my nose on all you, I'll pout. Prettily, of course.

[Omtose]

 Shadow, on 18 March 2010 - 06:48 PM, said:

I basically totally agree with Osseric, FYI.

For our info? Not sure why you would post this, since it looks quite like a symp clue(possibly fake ofc).

[Shadow]

Well I'm a bit perplexed about you right now, Kalse. You were the one who forwarded a strategy of maybe voting night 9 times in a row, which basically hands the Inquisition a victory and everyone else a loss (since they'll all likely be recruited). But you now seem to want to vote off any 'outed' member. I agree, the RI way to play is probably to lynch Watchers, but I see no reason that an SELF-CLAIMED Watcher gets lynched by a team that is trying to keep the game balanced, unless, as I've said, they know something about the balance being off right now.

[Shadow]

 Omtose, on 18 March 2010 - 06:52 PM, said:

 Shadow, on 18 March 2010 - 06:48 PM, said:

I basically totally agree with Osseric, FYI.

For our info? Not sure why you would post this, since it looks quite like a symp clue(possibly fake ofc).

He stated it a lot more eloquently than I did, but made the same basic case. Just trying to show I'm not alone here in thinking that a second Fener lynch is a waste of time.

[Anthras]

 Omtose, on 18 March 2010 - 06:31 PM, said:

If fener wanted out of the game, he'd just ask for modkill. So, I reckon he's definetely doing what he is for a reason. I would imagine that reason would be ignored. And look at that, there have been at least a couple of people encouraging us simply to ignore him, for reasons I think are stupid. Shadows meta reasoning for example-If he was having trouble playing, why not request modkill rather than waste our time.

I don't like fener, and I don't like the people advocating us ignoring him entirely.

There may be a very good reason to ignore him:

Quote

Vitaly Ragoza (The Mirror) - a minor Other who was not associated with either side, but was turned into the Mirror by the Twilight itself in order to correct the imbalance between the Night Watch and Day Watch in Moscow. As the Mirror, he had an ability to match the power level of any Other he was combating at the time. In the span of two weeks, he killed Tiger Cub and drained Svetlana's power. Upon completing his mission, he vanished into the Twilight.

(from wikipedia)

If he were this mirror he'd want people to lynch/attack him to increase his own power as he 'matches' them. If it's true, then we definitely do want to ignore and avoid him.

[Osseric]

On the Fener Side of things:

1. if he was recruited, he could be trying to start a train to give his master info. and keep the spotlight off his master as he says.

2. If he is part of the Inquisitors, he could just be trying to keep himself under the spotlight, to keep himself as a lynch target because he knows he won't be lynched, I highly doubt the watch can be recruited and thus all he would have to fear is a NK, after the results of last night's night, it looks like the DW/NW have to recruit their killers and this may/may not have happened. Bold move by a Inquisitor if this is his play.

3. He could be an inno that hasn;t been recruited... but then, why wouldn't he ask for a mod kill?


With those 3 as his options, I think 1 or 2 are more likely. Of 1 or 2, i think 1 is more likely because i am assuming there are a set number of inquisitors. It is only a matter of time before there is some form of NK, and if that power goes to the DW/NW then he is a dead man and the inquisitors numbers are dropped.

I am inclined to think that Fener is using mafia paranoia against us. I am leaning to a fener vote right now, but like I said.. I really don't care who we lynch as it likely won't go through anyway.

This post has been edited by Osseric: 18 March 2010 - 06:58 PM

[Serc]

 Shadow, on 18 March 2010 - 05:51 PM, said:

Basically, since the day started, the most suspicious person has been Mockra. I'm all for voting early in the day and whatnot, but everything about his vote (reasoning, timing, subsequent defense of it) has a really bad smell to it.

There's no point in voting Fener, despite his protestations. If he's really a recruit, the other watch will almost certainly kill him off, if they can.

I don't like voting for vocal players early in the game, but something about Mockra is really not sitting right, and there's no obvious reason to think he would even be successfully lynched, so

Vote Mockra

Underlined is mine - why would you vote for someone if you don't believe they will be die? I don't understand why everyone thinks the inquisition is going to block lynches indefinitely. The inquisition needs to keep a balance, but they also need to survive. If they dont try and limit both teams then late in the game everyone is going to be on one of the watches and they will lose the advantage they have now. The inquisition is the main enemy of the watches at this point, so the inquisition needs to keep the number of RI up so that they have some people 'on their team'. The only way they can do that is to lynch the recruiters. Now I seriously doubt the inquisitors can choose to only let recruiters be lynched, that would be very overpowered. So they're going to have to let some lynches on the watch through. An imbalance is unavoidable, the inquisitions job is to try even the numbers back out as soon as possible to keep any one watch from wiping out the other. I can understand noone getting lynched yesterday - as Kalse says, yesterday an unlucky lynch NK combo could have ended the game early in favour of one of the watches. Assuming both watches recruited last night, that possibility no longer exists and it's in their interests to let a lynch on a watch member go through.

As for Fener, I highly doubt an original watch member would put themselves on the line like that day one. Implying he's at worst a recruit. The other possibilities are that he has a hidden agenda or he's just bat-shit crazy. If he's RI, lynching him again won't help, it just gives the watches another night to recruit. If he's a recruit, then I'm not sure if he's a good lynch, since we need to be looking for the recruiters. And if he's playing to some hidden agenda, the WIFOM of whether he's bluffing or not could be discussed endlessly. Hence the people calling to put him on the backburner for now. We can continue to discuss him and not learn anything until he comes back and can actually explain himself, or we can talk about something else and try to move the game forward a little.

Also, does anyone have any idea when day times out? I have a sneaky feeling it's gonna be at some ungodly hour here.