[Okaros]

Meanas - you're the only person who's mentioned these 'lone wolf' factions, where do you see them mentioned as being included, because I dont see anything about them.

In my defense, I dont know why you all think I'm a faction leader. I put a vote on Spite, because I thought it was a safe vote, especially considering how early it was in the day. It's not the only course of action that I'm willing to consider, but it's a viable option and people have to put down votes to get the ball rolling. So that's what I did. I dont see how that proves anything. As for Korvalain indicating he might follow my vote - I have no idea why he's doing so. Maybe he agrees with my points, maybe he's fake-symping me.

Losing a leader makes it a lot harder for a faction to win, I agree. Doesnt mean it's impossible.

[Ruse]

I'm here gonna catch up

[Meanas]

I mentioned Lone Wolves because Ano had mentioned basically selling his services and that immediately reminded me of the opening setup where it described the Lu Bu character (who has been a badass in all of D'rek's games so far) as basically being a single guy with no army. Since the setup describes potential generals or leaders for the game, I'd imagine that if Lu Bu were in the game, he'd have no army and just be one tough SOB.

And no, losing a leader doesn't make it impossible to win... but it does pretty much mean the faction has to get lucky. The subs have had little to no chance to figure out who each other are, so in order to gain numerical superiority, it would require quite a bit of luck, each person playing as an individual, and somehow the survivors ending up in a position of power near the end.

I didn't vote you for the Spite vote. I think there's 'some' merit in voting for someone you think is not on your own faction, but I believe it to be better for my faction to eliminate more leaders, not subordinates (as I mentioned, to avoid an arms race of night actions). I voted you as a potential leader because Korvalain has appeared to symp you for a second day.

[Sukul Ankhadu]

I have a question for Okaros - you say that Spite is least likely to be in your faction, why do you think that?

The theory that Okaros has people voting the same as him is a bit tricky to take at face value - it could be fake symping after all. Nevertheless it's a pattern, and information wise it's a gold mine to investigate patterns in mafia. I would be okay to vote Okaros unless something better comes along.

[Meanas]

This is yesterday's count before Korvalain's vote.

Path-Shaper, on 09 February 2010 - 04:48 PM, said:

It is Day 1. 13 hours, 14 minutes remaining.

14 players still alive: Anomandaris, Galayn Lord, Korbas, Korvalain, Liosan, Meanas, Okaros, Omtose, Ruse, Spite, Sukul Ankhadu, Tennes, Telas, Tulas Shorn

8 votes to lynch. 7 to go to night.

2 votes Anomandaris (Meanas, Okaros)
2 votes Okaros (Tulas Shorn, Anomandaris)
1 vote Sukul Ankhadu (Omtose)

The votes yesterday started with me, Tulas, and Omtose, and then Okaros dropped a second vote on Ano, who retaliated with a second (self-preservation style) vote on Okaros. You can't blame Ano for trying to get someone else mentioned as lynchable, because in a merc game, if you are one vote above everyone else, you're SIGNIFICANTLY more lynchable than in a standard town/scum game. Ano was just trying to save himself.

However, Korvalain broke the stalemate by dropping a vote (in his next appearance) on Ano. That's fairly significant, because now Ano is quite a bit more lynchable than Okaros.

In context with today's comments, I'd state that this is a significant possibility of sympage.

[Sukul Ankhadu]

Yeah as I said, it's an interesting pattern. Now where did Okaros go?

[Korbas]

One thing I noticed was that when Telas posted earlier(when only meanas was voting) he didn't really care about Ano.
Then, after he comes back, he has decided he is likely a leader, and votes him.
Ok, time had past, ruse had pointed out spites possible sympage, but the change of opinion still stood out for me.
I find it unlikely Telas is a subordinate of Meanas(since he was unintersted when only meanas was voting) and also unlikely he was Okaros' since he voted Okaros, which leaves Ruse and Korv as potential leaders for him.

Edit: It is possible that Telas is distancing though, and I think Meanas makes a good point about the pattern of votes.

This post has been edited by Korbas: 10 February 2010 - 05:31 PM

[Meanas]

Oh my god, I see 5 other anons browsing, tell me we can have an actual conversation about this!

[Okaros]

Sukul Ankhadu, on 10 February 2010 - 05:19 PM, said:

I have a question for Okaros - you say that Spite is least likely to be in your faction, why do you think that?

The theory that Okaros has people voting the same as him is a bit tricky to take at face value - it could be fake symping after all. Nevertheless it's a pattern, and information wise it's a gold mine to investigate patterns in mafia. I would be okay to vote Okaros unless something better comes along.

Sorry, I'm going to be on and off, busy building a new bookshelf. Basically Spite defended Ano, who was not my faction leader. I know it doesnt mean 100% that Spite was Ano's sub, but it's Spite's subtle defense of Ano that made me vote for him in the first place, so I think it's fairly likely.

@ Meanas, so you're creating an entire mechanic off an extrapolation of the characters? It sounds to me like maybe you know something that the rest of us don't. Care to share?

[Sukul Ankhadu]

Korbas, that is definitely a possible distancing, but alot of things are at this point.

[Sukul Ankhadu]

Okaros, on 10 February 2010 - 05:36 PM, said:

Sorry, I'm going to be on and off, busy building a new bookshelf. Basically Spite defended Ano, who was not my faction leader. I know it doesnt mean 100% that Spite was Ano's sub, but it's Spite's subtle defense of Ano that made me vote for him in the first place, so I think it's fairly likely.

Yeah, it's a possible scenario I suppose. But it doesn't beat the neat little pattern with Korv as a vote choice.

[Meanas]

Okaros, I interpolated information between the PREVIOUS game and the opening scene description in THIS game. I have no 'extra info' and I don't think my thoughts are any stretch of the imagination.

[Ruse]

Ok caught up and it seems some teams are forming. For the people advocating a "lets let spite slide because we should be going for leaders" I think you are being a bit daft. Spite himself said it was coincidence and that Ano wasn't his leader.. take that as you will, In my posts yesterday I stated that its possible spite was just middle of the roading . (as a possible leader would do). I also believe that when you have a team down.. you kill it. That way there are no mistakes. From the way post lynch has shaken out, it looks to me, in the way the Okaros train has gathered steam alarmingly quickly, that we have a leader in the front part of this train, directing his followers.

Here is a quote by spite throwing out his list of Possible Leaders. Notice he latches onto Okaros at the end soley based on the fact that he was early in the train and that people followed him ( by that logic, anyone that isn't the lead vote is a sub..) Meanas uses this later as well.

Spite, on 10 February 2010 - 03:04 AM, said:

I think that we need to be reading more into the lower posters than in previous games. Both for the fact that important characters tend to hide among them the first few days and because I think the ME mafia trend of continually lynching the high posters is doing bad things to the game. So far we have four people with five or fewer posts, two of whom still managed to vote on Ano (Telas and Korbas - Omtose voted on Sukul):

Telas 5
Omtose 4
Korbas 4
Liosan 3

And three with 6 posts (all of whom still managed to vote on Ano):

Ruse 6
Sukul Ankhadu 6
Okaros 6

Of those, Ruse was the one who made the actual case that Ano was a leader. The most thought out of the votes and a decent case (whether or not I agree with it). I doubt he is a leader (or at least doesn't deserve the lurker title) at this point just due to the amount he contributed in that one post alone.

Korbas, Sukul and Telas were pile on votes.

Okaros was the second vote.

I would not be surprised to find a faction leader among Okaros, Korbas, Sukul and Telas. I would also not be surprised to find that Okaros was a faction leader and at least one of the later voters was a sub to him. I'll reread the posts from all those six and under and see if anything sticks out.

Then look who pops on and immediately votes Okaros. Based on that "analysis" above. What analysis. He is voting him because he was second on the train.

Tulas Shorn, on 10 February 2010 - 05:35 AM, said:

Well, the analysis of Okaros above, and my misgivings about him yesterday makes me want to go ahead and vote him again - just to get things rolling.

And I agree, low posting has been the MO of faction leaders in recent merc games.

Vote Okaros

Then on comes Meanas sayig that we shouldn't be trying to knock off a team, but instead looking for leaders. I'm sorry, but I think this is a bad idea. We don't KNOW that spite is a Ano follower. WE strongly suspect based on yesterdays interactions, but we don't know. As myself and a couple others pointed out yesterday before the lynch, he might have been middle-of-the-roading. Which is a leader tactic. I am just pointing out here that I don't agree with Meanas' opinion.

Meanas, on 10 February 2010 - 03:31 PM, said:

Good morning!

I'm not sure that I agree with hunting down a weakened faction for two reasons. It 1) allows every other faction to try and win an arms race against my faction. And 2) it does nothing to help me determine who else is in my faction. Ano's faction is completely crippled. I don't know how many starting factions there are, but I'd imagine it's in the neighborhood of 3-6 (each faction having 2-4 members, maybe a lone wolf faction in there). A faction of a few people that has already lost its leader is going to have an absolute nightmare of a time trying to win the game.

It's much more prudent to hunt down other leaders, IMO.

But then this one takes the cake for me. Meanas is basing his vote on the fact that a player folloed soeone twice in a game... if thats the case then if I vote for Okaros, does that mean I am a Subordinate of Meanas? I will have followed him both days. Actually, by Spite's logic. Meanas is a likely leader as he was the first person on the Ano bandwagon, and the third person on the Okaros train.

Meanas, on 10 February 2010 - 03:40 PM, said:

Current votes:

Okaros (Tulas)
Liosan (Meanas)
Spite (Okaros, Liosan)

So Liosan has popped out of the woodwork to drop a second vote on Spite. And Korvalain, although he hasn't voted, hasn't committed to voting anyone else, and has soft-spoken some support for Spite as a back-up candidate. This kind of behavior just pisses me off. Why are people still saying "We should consider lynching this guy" and not either 1) voting them or 2) offering some alternative(s)? This looks like an attempt to offer support of Okaros's case, without committing to it too early and starting a train.

Here's a kicker for me.

Yesterday's votes:

8 votes Anomandaris (Meanas, Okaros, Korvalain, Ruse, Telas, Tennes, Korbas, Sukul Ankhadu)
2 votes Okaros (Tulas Shorn, Anomandaris)
1 vote Sukul Ankhadu (Omtose)

Korvalain followed Okaros onto the train. It's safe, IMO, to say that Tulas is not a sub of Okaros, since he voted him both days (yesterday may have been a signal, today unlikely). Ano obviously wasn't a sub of Okaros. So if we're looking at yesterday's votes as any form of signal, I'd be extremely dubious about people that vote on the same train who seem to have similar interests in the following days.

Today, Korvalain follows that pattern.

Remove Vote
Vote Okaros

Do I think the Okaros case has merit... yes actually. I do. the Korv votes are suspect, but it could also be a crafty player trying to get someone killed. I think we need to look at voting patterns but not to the exclusion of other player interactions. Would I vote Okaros. Absolutely. He's not my big dog so I could care less.but...

vote Spite

why?

He might be the last person of Ano's faction thus eliminating a possible victor over my team.
He might be a leader, and from the way Tulas and Meanas have jumped on his initial vote they are prime suspects for last nights recruiting or possible original member.
Unless he is your leader I see no reason why a person trying to win for their team wouldn't vote Spite.

I understand that in a merc game it is dangerous, to defend someone, and it looks like I am doing that to Okaros. But whatever, i am going to say what I think and i think its a real tactical error to let spite wander around free when he is a known enemy. I have been bit in the ass way to many times to leave someone at my backside like that.

If it comes down to make or break,lynch/no lynch, I will swap over to Okaros, but I think Spite is the better choice.

[Ruse]

Meanas, on 09 February 2010 - 06:38 PM, said:

Ano, it's quite possible to argue without going straight to the "U DUM" line. But I'm not going to further justify my vote on you.

Ruse... that is a mighty day 1 case, sir. And that would be equally incredible if Ano were a leader. However, I am a bit worried that you're just trying to set up a second day lynch. I suppose, however, if Ano were lynched and came back with a name we expect to be a leader (one of the earlier mentioned names that someone said were likely to be powerful), that we'd have to immediately consider potential subordinates.

There's also a slight air of confidence in that case, Ruse... something to me that boils down to a "You're not my leader, VOTE" case, but in a dissertation format.

Then I came across this bold is mine. This looks like Meanas might have been an original member of Spite's team and was worried that I would come after him today. So maybe I was wrong yesterday in Spite Symping Anno. Maybe Spite is the leader. He was playing very middle of the road. That has been said by multiple people.

This Quote, combined with Spite basically directing people to Okaros in his first big post lynch post make me pretty confident. I was right yesterday that ano was a leader ( maybe for the wrong reasons.. but.. ) And I think we have found another one in Spite. I am not changing my vote today. I am more confident about this that I was about Ano yesterday.

[Ruse]

ok, i am out for an hour or 2. Sorry for the "Big post and run" thing I have been doing. but I play at work and add bits and bits to posts and then just send it all at once. Bad for the post count but good for substance I guess. I'll be back in a few to check up.

[Meanas]

I like your post, Ruse, and you seem to be pretty savvy despite your low post count, but Spite is nothing to me and as has been said and I have agreed with, he is an excellent fallback plan for today's lynch. I'd vote him in a heartbeat if people didn't agree with the potential Korvalain sympage I pointed out, simply because I agree with all of the reasons to vote him (not my leader, potentially eliminating a faction to 'make sure' rather than leaving loose ends that may come back to bite you later if he gets recruited or whatever, may even be a leader with Tulas on his team).

[Okaros]

Woot, bookshelf is assembled, now it just needs some sanding and some stain, then it's book unboxing time!

Another point that may or may not be relevant, depending on how the game's mechanics work - low ranked players are generally the recruiting pool in merc games. With the subtitle of the game being romance of the three cultdoms, i think it's reasonably safe to assume there are some recruiting powers in play. Now a lot of people have stated that they would rather ignore likely subordinates, since they are now 'harmless', but what that's doing is essentially giving recruiters a target that essentailly has a free ride for a turn or two. Personally I dont think that's a good idea.

[Okaros]

Meanas, on 10 February 2010 - 05:42 PM, said:

Okaros, I interpolated information between the PREVIOUS game and the opening scene description in THIS game. I have no 'extra info' and I don't think my thoughts are any stretch of the imagination.

Also, this is a pretty defensive post for a throw-away comment. I dont really feel like building and pushing a case based on what is essentially a hunch at this point, but I think I might have struck a nerve.

[Meanas]

You've struck dirt, and not the kind that pays.

I'm just the type of player who likes to respond to any form of accusation, big or small; whereas someone like our recently departed friend Ano is the type of player who likes to ignore any form of accusation.

[Ruse]

Okaros, on 10 February 2010 - 07:22 PM, said:

Meanas, on 10 February 2010 - 05:42 PM, said:

Okaros, I interpolated information between the PREVIOUS game and the opening scene description in THIS game. I have no 'extra info' and I don't think my thoughts are any stretch of the imagination.

Also, this is a pretty defensive post for a throw-away comment. I dont really feel like building and pushing a case based on what is essentially a hunch at this point, but I think I might have struck a nerve.

Going to have to agree with Meanas on that one. I also like to respond to acusations immediately. Less room for Strawmanning later in the game. If you let things fester they grow too big.

At this point, I feel like we are spinning our wheels. It seems like we are getting little to no help from people other than Meanas, Okaros, Spite and to a lesser extent, me and Tulas. And lo-and-behold who are under scrutiny... Spite and Okaros. I would really like to hear some more from the Silent factions. If these current cases are 2 Subordinates going at eachother , while 2-3 leaders sit back, and laugh at everyone... I hate those kind of games