[Tapper]

HD, in reply to your reply on alt146:

He is wording his thoughts on the set-up. Thoughts have nothing to do with wcs. Once more, and then I'll quit putting this to paper and focusing on other people, if you are scum you have everything to win by presenting a scenario with 2 NKs by the killers as truth, as it means that YOU did not use your vig. It is, and I'll give you that, also the straightforward scenario.

Whereas a scenario with 1 killer NK means that there is someone lying here. Either Hinter did not guard Ment and Ment submitted a kill, or Silencer guarded Hinter and lied about not submitting, or both speak the truth and you used your vig. The upside of this scenario means that we have hit a scum amongst the three of you. The tough part is determining who.

Silencer, who was clumsy.
You, who have been saying you're inno since your first post this day.
Or Hinter, who submitted a night action to guard a vig, according to his say-so.

However, it is still early in the day, gotta say I'm pleased with the amount of questioning and thinking we have on thread at the moment, though, it is a promising start to scum finding.

[Hinter]

Assuming everyone is telling the truth

Hinter - guarded Ment
Alt - healed Hinter
Mappo - healed HD
HD - no action
Silencer - no action
and a couple of people left to check in

Facts: I guarded Ment so Ment didn't use his vig, DKT did use his vig on PB but there were still two more deaths.

If we believe HD (and atm I'm inclined to) then there are definitely two killers.

I'm also with HD on Silencer - I find it astonishing that he forgot to submit a night action. I am also therefore suspiscious of Tappers's solid defence of Silencer, but surely Tapper is too experienced a player to be so obviously sympish, or is at a double bluff?

Meh, Those two are in my sights atm

[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 2. 16 hours and 54 minutes remaining

8 Players still alive: alt, bent, hinter, hoosierdaddy, mappo, silencer, tapper, veng

5 votes to lynch, 4 votes to go to night


Players not voted: alt, bent, hinter, hoosierdaddy, mappo, silencer, tapper, veng


PROVISIONALS PLEASE (even if it is no action)

This post has been edited by Path-Shaper: 11 September 2009 - 08:21 AM

[Tapper]

13 hours before deadline is a long time. Now, I'll admit that I didn't read back to the moment where dkt submitted his NA, and whether or not Silencer was around, so HD surprised me with that info, and it does make things a bit more odd and my idea of Silencer sticking to his plan is thus clearly faulty, leaving only the accident as a possibility.

Still, we all fuck up, oversleep on days with important stuff, fail to catch that last bus you absolutely need, etc.
As for me defending him: it is my firm opinion that scum finding is a result of discussion and expression of opinion. That means not just by accusing people, but also by defending them. Midday speedlynches early in the game and trains without any contra-examination exist thanks to the fact that very few townies get up and speak out in defense of someone else, no matter how shallow the case, mostly out of fear that they are seen as a symp or fellow scum should the CF come out that way.

So yeah, I've been sticking my neck out for Silencer, partly on false assumptions as HD proved, and I can see how that might make me sympish. At the same time, as you can see from my previous posts, I have been keeping the option that he is lying, wide open.

[HoosierDaddy]

Hinter, on 11 September 2009 - 08:07 AM, said:

Assuming everyone is telling the truth

Hinter - guarded Ment
Alt - healed Hinter
Mappo - healed HD
HD - no action
Silencer - no action
and a couple of people left to check in

Facts: I guarded Ment so Ment didn't use his vig, DKT did use his vig on PB but there were still two more deaths.

If we believe HD (and atm I'm inclined to) then there are definitely two killers.

I'm also with HD on Silencer - I find it astonishing that he forgot to submit a night action. I am also therefore suspiscious of Tappers's solid defence of Silencer, but surely Tapper is too experienced a player to be so obviously sympish, or is at a double bluff?

Meh, Those two are in my sights atm

Tapper is playing Devil's advocate, as he should, because that's what inno does. WCS is always the way to play the game. But, I wonder why Tapper would play Devil's advocate while advocating a non WCS.

Seriously, with the amount of firepower team inno had, even with scum, combining it with the actual damned powers assigned is ridiculous.

Edit: X-Post.

This post has been edited by HoosierDaddy: 11 September 2009 - 08:22 AM

[HoosierDaddy]

Well, I'm going to go pass the fuck out. Hopefully you can all parse that shit into something worthwhile. Be back when I wake up.

Remove vote.

Vote Alt.

This post has been edited by HoosierDaddy: 11 September 2009 - 08:53 AM

[alt146]

And I'm back.

I understand the point you made HD, but seriously - 2 scum kills per night in a 12 player game AND three vigs is really crazy. It means the game could theoritically have won on the second day's lynch I know team inno has tons of roles, but they're all out in the open and the scum are roled too. Granted, DiBs is modding, so crazy shit is kind of expected, but that's pushing the limits. I dont know why you're so keen to immediately assume that there were two kills and not even look into the fact that people could be lying - in fact now you've voted me for wanting to do that. WCS is all good and well when planning NAs or tactics as a team, but you cant overlook something fishy because it's not WCS.

[HoosierDaddy]

The reason I assume two independent killers comes from Dibs messages combined with the amount of power roles provided. I might be wrong, I admit, I might very well be wrong. But, I could also be very right, and god damnit two killers is WCS, undoubtedly as of previous night, and that's how we play the fucking game.

I see no reason to discount that theory at that point and anyone who does is fucking suspect.

Alt][i]I understand the point you made HD, on but seriously - 2 scum kills per night in a 12 player game AND three vigs is really crazy. It means the game could theoritically have won on the second day's lynch I know team inno has tons of roles,[/i, said:

The thing is, the 3 vigs were all Town, so in actuality, the killing power was never as profound as you thought. You are either playing us very well, or are inno. I am very much so trying to decide.

[Tapper]

HoosierDaddy, on 11 September 2009 - 08:21 AM, said:

Hinter, on 11 September 2009 - 08:07 AM, said:

Assuming everyone is telling the truth

Hinter - guarded Ment
Alt - healed Hinter
Mappo - healed HD
HD - no action
Silencer - no action
and a couple of people left to check in

Facts: I guarded Ment so Ment didn't use his vig, DKT did use his vig on PB but there were still two more deaths.

If we believe HD (and atm I'm inclined to) then there are definitely two killers.

I'm also with HD on Silencer - I find it astonishing that he forgot to submit a night action. I am also therefore suspiscious of Tappers's solid defence of Silencer, but surely Tapper is too experienced a player to be so obviously sympish, or is at a double bluff?

Meh, Those two are in my sights atm

Tapper is playing Devil's advocate, as he should, because that's what inno does. WCS is always the way to play the game. But, I wonder why Tapper would play Devil's advocate while advocating a non WCS.

Seriously, with the amount of firepower team inno had, even with scum, combining it with the actual damned powers assigned is ridiculous.

Edit: X-Post.

Why I mention the 1-kill scenario is because, if it is correct, notice the IF, it exposes 3 people, of which 1 is guaranteed to be a liar and thus, likely to be scum. That is too good a bit of info to pass over because it doesn't fit the WCS, even if the scenario itself is currently unlikely. Depending on what happens tonight, if we don't lose, that is, we can come back to this scenario and see if it holds some clues, or is all bull. It should still be mentioned, however, and better to mention it now in case the ones who think it may be true, die.

Once more HD, the 2 vigs we've seen CFed town but could have been symps (well, not dkt, he's CI by dibses wording) and we don't know for certain about you.

[alt146]

HoosierDaddy, on 11 September 2009 - 09:25 AM, said:

The reason I assume two independent killers comes from Dibs messages combined with the amount of power roles provided. I might be wrong, I admit, I might very well be wrong. But, I could also be very right, and god damnit two killers is WCS, undoubtedly as of previous night, and that's how we play the fucking game.

I see no reason to discount that theory at that point and anyone who does is fucking suspect.

Alt said:

I understand the point you made HD, but seriously - 2 scum kills per night in a 12 player game AND three vigs is really crazy. It means the game could theoritically have won on the second day's lynch I know team inno has tons of roles,

The thing is, the 3 vigs were all Town, so in actuality, the killing power was never as profound as you thought. You are either playing us very well, or are inno. I am very much so trying to decide.

Two vigs CF'd inno, Ment could have been a symp, who knows. The verdict is still out on you. Three kills is three kills. Statistically there's like a 25% (disclaimer - I suck at stats) chance they would hit scum, so while it is beneficial to us the chances of three vigs hitting three scum is low and it will help the scum get closer to endgame. I could also be wrong and will take the possibility of two kills into account since it's not impossible, but only when it's relevant. You said yourself Silencer not putting in a provisional is wierd - I think that if he was scum guarding Hinter and killing Mental would be a decent move, why dismiss the possibility out of hand?

Edit - crosspost with Tapper

This post has been edited by alt146: 11 September 2009 - 09:40 AM

[HoosierDaddy]

1 vig was innocent - Dkt
1 vig was killed last night (Ment) yeah, he could have been a symp, but how many symps get a vig?
I am the only remaining vig, and I know I'm fucking innocent. I'm trying to aid our god damned team no matter what you think.

I don't ask you believe me, I ask that you make fucking cases on other people, please. I am worthless after tonight, give me something to go one other than my own logic.

[alt146]

HoosierDaddy, on 11 September 2009 - 09:45 AM, said:

1 vig was innocent - Dkt
1 vig was killed last night (Ment) yeah, he could have been a symp, but how many symps get a vig?
I am the only remaining vig, and I know I'm fucking innocent. I'm trying to aid our god damned team no matter what you think.

I don't ask you believe me, I ask that you make fucking cases on other people, please. I am worthless after tonight, give me something to go one other than my own logic.

I started bringing up suspicious behaviour and you voted me for it because it doesnt fit your belief in the setup. Do you believe you will be useless because you will die, or because you're planning on using your vig?

[HoosierDaddy]

I'm going to get smoked because I have an ability that scum won't have, and that's day action, Alt.

[Tapper]

HoosierDaddy, on 11 September 2009 - 09:45 AM, said:

1 vig was innocent - Dkt
1 vig was killed last night (Ment) yeah, he could have been a symp, but how many symps get a vig?
I am the only remaining vig, and I know I'm fucking innocent. I'm trying to aid our god damned team no matter what you think.

I don't ask you believe me, I ask that you make fucking cases on other people, please. I am worthless after tonight, give me something to go one other than my own logic.

In this scenario, a symp could get a vig, that's the sad truth. If team scum only has 1 NK, making a vig symp is actually not a bad move at all balance wise to compensate for the town, far better than making a killer also a vig, cause they could off their symp otherwise, and he'd be certain to not kill a fellow scum.

We all try to aid our team, but unlike scum, we just don't know who is on our team and who isn't

the point of all of this is NOT to paint you as scum, but you blatantly refuse to look at any other possibility that could explain why there are 2 kills, and what it means, because it isn't WCS, despite it having a lot of info attached to it.

I agree with you that the one-NK-alternative to the WCS is not the likeliest one of the two (and that agreement with you should speak volumes of what I think about whether or not you are inno), but just FYI, if the alternative is correct, and you are not scum, then there you have a 50/50 chance of catching scum - either Silencer or Hinter, and for those of us who believe you could be scum (and I keep that option open in the alternate variant) it is a 1/3 chance with names pegged to the faces.

I also conclude that you are going to vig tonight, seeing how you say you are worthless. Now, I´m not sure that is the wisest course. As you say yourself in the WCS, if there´s 3 scum with 2 kills, they can win without a lynch. We have 3 healers, 2 guards, so even with scum amongst them (a wcs assumption, they're 5/8 so it even seems highly likely), we have a good chance of stopping at least 1 kill. Your vig, if aimed at an inno, could well shift the balance to the scum side. However, its your vig, so do what you think is best, and for christ's sake, please don't say out loud on thread. A healer-scum could well double cross you or let it through and town would be all the poorer for it.

[Tapper]

HoosierDaddy, on 11 September 2009 - 09:56 AM, said:

I'm going to get smoked because I have an ability that scum won't have, and that's day action, Alt.

Don't discount the option of being healed . A vig is a powerful tool especially end-game and generally worth preserving. Main question is whether or not a guard or other healer isn't worth more to town, I guess.

[HoosierDaddy]

That was a labyrinthine post, Tapper. As confusing as some of mine at my most drunkenness. I don't take my roles lightly, and I'd never vig lightly, but you are correct in assuming I think I'm going to die this night. I have the most dangerous power to Scum, therefore, I think I'm the most targetable. Whether or not you believe any of this is your own concern.

But, an FYI, if I was scum, all I'd have to do was wait until the very end of this day, then day kill someone to provide a victory for scum. Good for our team none of the vigs were scum.

So, cases, lets make cases on people. Scum is out there, and we need to find them. I voted Alt, because I went through the first 7 pages looking for scum and he looked the worst.

[Silencer]

HD, I hope you didn't just claim that symps don't get a vig. Dibs assigned the roles THEN the scum roles.

Besides which, if I didn't guard, "I think that if he was scum guarding Hinter and killing Mental would be a decent move, why dismiss the possibility out of hand?" then this scenario is impossible, unless I missed the bit where scum can use both powers at once? Or you are saying paired scum, which I thought you'd discounted earlier, alt.

@HD - the part where you claimed that you had found two scum was when you said that you thought Hinter was lying about healing you, and that I was lying about not guarding. It's a well established fact that only scum would lie in this situation, therefore you're claiming scum find. Strawmanning a bit, I'll admit, but it's still true.

[Silencer]

Kind of a cross-post, I have some similar points to Tapper.

[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 2. 14 hours and 54 minutes remaining

8 Players still alive: alt, bent, hinter, hoosierdaddy, mappo, silencer, tapper, veng

5 votes to lynch, 4 votes to go to night

1 vote for alt: ( hoosierdaddy )

Players not voted: alt, bent, hinter, mappo, silencer, tapper, veng



note - If a scum player has a normal ability they can use that, and their killing power on the same night.

[HoosierDaddy]

I already spoke to the notion of Hinter, I said he could be lying, not that he was. If you are looking for easy targets, I guess I probably am after having pushed so hard at this point. I have done so to bring out information. How many fucking players have been missing though, at this point? At least wait until you and I can question others, please.

Edit: And, yes: I just said that symps don't get a vig: I'm a vig, Dkt was a vig, and if PB was a scum vig, well then we got played. But, I'm going to play the game as I've read it. If you think I'm ignorant vote me the fuck off.

This post has been edited by HoosierDaddy: 11 September 2009 - 10:26 AM