[Peanutbutta]

Kind of funny because they almost can't lynch Barghast now, Eloth SHOULD know that Emur was lying about Thyr as a symp and knows Barghast ist he master.

Funny bit is that it's

1 Scum
1 Scum symp who is infected AND the de facto replacement DG
1 DG
5 Town (3 CI/VPI)

Meanas is almost Meta CId for the huge absence so it's pretty much a GL or Kaschan lynch. If they lynch Kaschan, Barghast can plead that he attacked GL night 3 to drop the BP and try take him out as the DG. Would buy him an extra day, and it would give Obdi a chance to infect and appoint a new leader to try and win the game for him.

Crazy finish.

[Vengeance]

Well played dibs

[Vengeance]

Peanutbutta, on Jun 29 2009, 12:51 PM, said:

Kind of funny because they almost can't lynch Barghast now, Eloth SHOULD know that Emur was lying about Thyr as a symp and knows Barghast ist he master.

Funny bit is that it's

1 Scum
1 Scum symp who is infected AND the de facto replacement DG
1 DG
5 Town (3 CI/VPI)

Meanas is almost Meta CId for the huge absence so it's pretty much a GL or Kaschan lynch. If they lynch Kaschan, Barghast can plead that he attacked GL night 3 to drop the BP and try take him out as the DG. Would buy him an extra day, and it would give Obdi a chance to infect and appoint a new leader to try and win the game for him.

Crazy finish.

If they don't lynch barghast then obdi should infect him and make him his 2

[D'rek]

Peanutbutta, on Jun 29 2009, 01:51 PM, said:

Kind of funny because they almost can't lynch Barghast now, Eloth SHOULD know that Emur was lying about Thyr as a symp and knows Barghast ist he master.

Funny bit is that it's

1 Scum
1 Scum symp who is infected AND the de facto replacement DG
1 DG
5 Town (3 CI/VPI)

Meanas is almost Meta CId for the huge absence so it's pretty much a GL or Kaschan lynch. If they lynch Kaschan, Barghast can plead that he attacked GL night 3 to drop the BP and try take him out as the DG. Would buy him an extra day, and it would give Obdi a chance to infect and appoint a new leader to try and win the game for him.

Crazy finish.

Well presumably someone will see the logic that if they don't lynch Barghast he's going to get recruited, so I'm sure they'll end up going for him, and assuming GL makes a good infect then the numbers will be pretty tight, especially since its still DGv1. Meanas actually getting in the game could be a huge boon for the innos right now...

edit: xpost with venge lol

This post has been edited by D'rek: 29 June 2009 - 05:55 PM

[J_Slr]

We can hope!!!!

Still if I found out Silencer has been spending time on modcraft and was not here.....

[D'rek]

Galayn Lord, on Jun 29 2009, 01:57 PM, said:

So I'm toying with the idea of keeping Barghast alive until HP finds the DG.

that might not have been a good thing to say...

[J_Slr]

I don't know, its getting to DDay and all the killers have been outed, So I can see an Innocent agree to this.

[drinksinbars]

that was awesome.

gotta go guys will read up later.

[Vengeance]

Meanas would be a good recruit target if bargast gets lynched.

[D'rek]

drinksinbars, on Jun 29 2009, 02:00 PM, said:

that was awesome.

gotta go guys will read up later.

yeah that ending of yours was very cool, well played!

[D'rek]

Vengeance, on Jun 29 2009, 02:00 PM, said:

Meanas would be a good recruit target if bargast gets lynched.

not necessarily. if meanas keeps being inactive then they'll get modkilled, or failing that won't be on for compulsion and will die if it is used... I'd go for Lio or Korlat, probably.

addendum: Yeah, I'd go for an active player, because if they lynch Barg there's no more kills and it becomes 7 players, 4 votes to lynch. If Meanas stays inactive and Eloth isn't disinfected that's a 3-3 split, hinging it all on Meanas. I think I'd even use compulsion and try to get an argument going (probly on kaschan) with the compulsion just so none of the infected can vote against DG and hope for disinfect. Then you claim infected before the other 2 can and say you're being compulsed. HP goes for disinfecting you (someone else gets lynched, presumably) and HP will find out you're DG but with the extra recruiting that night you should be pretty poised for a close win.

This post has been edited by D'rek: 29 June 2009 - 06:08 PM

[Peanutbutta]

Vengeance, on Jun 29 2009, 10:53 AM, said:

Peanutbutta, on Jun 29 2009, 12:51 PM, said:

Kind of funny because they almost can't lynch Barghast now, Eloth SHOULD know that Emur was lying about Thyr as a symp and knows Barghast ist he master.

Funny bit is that it's

1 Scum
1 Scum symp who is infected AND the de facto replacement DG
1 DG
5 Town (3 CI/VPI)

Meanas is almost Meta CId for the huge absence so it's pretty much a GL or Kaschan lynch. If they lynch Kaschan, Barghast can plead that he attacked GL night 3 to drop the BP and try take him out as the DG. Would buy him an extra day, and it would give Obdi a chance to infect and appoint a new leader to try and win the game for him.

Crazy finish.

If they don't lynch barghast then obdi should infect him and make him his 2

Barghast is getting lynched tomorrow if not today, so no point to make him the #2. Point is, if they lynch Barghast, GL picks a new successor today and they have zero idea who it is and it's 4 town to 3 DG faction (with the DG either Kaschan or GL). 50/50 they get it right and even if they do, lynching DG won't stop the new one from infecting agan and boom, 3-3. I think the DG doesn't auto-win in with a tie-vote so basically town has a one-in-two and then one-in-five (not counting HP) chance of winning in this case.

No, they need to work with Barghast today and eliminate the DG for CERTAIN. Then it's

1 Scum - Barghast
1 infected town symp - Eloth (either the new DG or still the infected symp)
1 DG2 - (one of Liosan, Korlat, Meanas)
1 CI - HP
2 Town - (whoever isn't the DG2)

At that point, they can lynch Barghast and make it 3-3 town/symp vs DG.

Basically it's one-in-five town wins after GL is lynched, but if they mess up today and lynch Barghast, they have 1-in-2 of getting the GL/Kasch lynch right, too. So slightly better odds for town to work with Barghast today.

[D'rek]

Peanutbutta, on Jun 29 2009, 02:05 PM, said:

Vengeance, on Jun 29 2009, 10:53 AM, said:

Peanutbutta, on Jun 29 2009, 12:51 PM, said:

Kind of funny because they almost can't lynch Barghast now, Eloth SHOULD know that Emur was lying about Thyr as a symp and knows Barghast ist he master.

Funny bit is that it's

1 Scum
1 Scum symp who is infected AND the de facto replacement DG
1 DG
5 Town (3 CI/VPI)

Meanas is almost Meta CId for the huge absence so it's pretty much a GL or Kaschan lynch. If they lynch Kaschan, Barghast can plead that he attacked GL night 3 to drop the BP and try take him out as the DG. Would buy him an extra day, and it would give Obdi a chance to infect and appoint a new leader to try and win the game for him.

Crazy finish.

If they don't lynch barghast then obdi should infect him and make him his 2

Barghast is getting lynched tomorrow if not today, so no point to make him the #2. Point is, if they lynch Barghast, GL picks a new successor today and they have zero idea who it is and it's 4 town to 3 DG faction (with the DG either Kaschan or GL). 50/50 they get it right and even if they do, lynching DG won't stop the new one from infecting agan and boom, 3-3. I think the DG doesn't auto-win in with a tie-vote so basically town has a one-in-two and then one-in-five (not counting HP) chance of winning in this case.

No, they need to work with Barghast today and eliminate the DG for CERTAIN. Then it's

1 Scum - Barghast
1 infected town symp - Eloth (either the new DG or still the infected symp)
1 DG2 - (one of Liosan, Korlat, Meanas)
1 CI - HP
2 Town - (whoever isn't the DG2)

At that point, they can lynch Barghast and make it 3-3 town/symp vs DG.

Basically it's one-in-five town wins after GL is lynched, but if they mess up today and lynch Barghast, they have 1-in-2 of getting the GL/Kasch lynch right, too. So slightly better odds for town to work with Barghast today.

Optimistically. If I was Shin in such a situation, though, I'd screw the innos and try to get infected while setting up a DG win. Not sure of the maths, I guess you couldn't just kill Janice instead of the agreed target and hope to survive the next lynch as town still has majority. Maybe do no NK and claim guarded by an infected guard, then next night kill Janice and let the DG infect you.

[Peanutbutta]

Yeah, I mean it's basically just hoping you get infected to get carried to a win at this point. But seriously, I doubt Barghast doesn't get lynched tomorrow, NK or no.

[D'rek]

Peanutbutta, on Jun 29 2009, 02:15 PM, said:

Yeah, I mean it's basically just hoping you get infected to get carried to a win at this point. But seriously, I doubt Barghast doesn't get lynched tomorrow, NK or no.

they might not be capable though! Right now its

Barghast
v
Meanas, Hood's Path, Kaschan, Korlat, Liosan
v
Eloth, Galayn Lord

its a bit of a gamble, but if they lynch an inno, say Kaschan, and they mutually agree that barghast will kill someone, say GL and HP will disinfect anyone but Eloth, say Liosan. If Barg lies and kills HP instead and GL infects Barg then its

Meanas, Korlat, Liosan
v
Galayn Lord, Barghast, Eloth

and while at that point they might *want* to lynch Barg, as long as Eloth doesn't go crazy they can't force it.

which is pretty much a victory for the infecteds. It's not too hard to believe, either, most of it they'd be talking about in-thread before anyway (who gets disinfected, who gets killed etc), and it just makes sense the DG would have a provisional infect on Baghast if he doesn't get lynched...

This post has been edited by D'rek: 29 June 2009 - 06:24 PM

[Peanutbutta]

You're right, your scenario is an instant win for GL. If Barg gets recruited and isn't lynched, it's 3 on 3 and even if they lynch Barg, GL just recruits someone else, compels, and wins 3 to 2.
Lynching Barg now is a one-in-twelve chance (50/50 getting Kaschan/GL right tomorrow, 1-in-5 of getting it right the next day)

Best chance I see for town to win is a GL lynch today because it is SO likely Eloth is infected from after Game cleared him earlier.
Barg
Eloth + Recruit (recruiting Barg at this point is detrimental to himself since Barg is lynched anyway)
HP
Kaschan, Meanas
Lio, Korlat > Barg kills one of these to try and get Eloth lynched as likely DG

Barg will be lynched, most likely, but could possibly kill the recruited person. In either event, Barg is outed and Eloth is a likely replacement if they lynched GL today.

This post has been edited by Peanutbutta: 29 June 2009 - 06:44 PM

[Peanutbutta]

Actually I completely forgot. They have HP. HP can cleanse infections. They have to kill Barg today to ensure HP stays alive. He is the main chance the town has right now. Go General King? lol

(Side note if he disinfects Eloth, he's back to full time killer symp again lol)

[Peanutbutta]

And by the way if you think Gem is the only person who can win this for town, you have clearly underestimated Breadmaster.

[D'rek]

Peanutbutta, on Jun 29 2009, 02:46 PM, said:

(Side note if he disinfects Eloth, he's back to full time killer symp again lol)

Oh yeah, forgot about that. lol. Not that Shin will believe it no matter what Eloth says

[Peanutbutta]

lol of course.

Bottom line, Scum very likely to lose. DG has above-average winning odds.

Looks like town has come to the exact same conclusion btw. They have to lynch Barghast because he has no choice but to kill HP to try and win.

I'll get on PS and get ready for duties.