[Path-Shaper]

This was from before the night end, but I'll post it anyway from Grief:

Telas said:

[Entitled Liosan] Is also someone I really don't trust.

Possibly don't trust him more than Liosan.

Will probably try lynch him if it's not Gam.

And now some reaction from Sixty:

Ruse said:

That was Obdi? What?!?!??!

My alting ability officially fails.

Sorry Liosan...


On a side note, it seems I have a preternatural ability to antagonize Obdi. Good times.

An incorrect altguess:

Ruse said:

I'm going to go on a limb and assume Lio is therefore Bent. I think some people had some grudges against him after the previous game, hence his "alt guess" statement...that oddly applied to Obdi as well.

Hmmm....maybe I can subtly push to imply that Meanas was UB and Fener was BB? Since my silence won't have worked.

Of course, that's not going to work in light of Telas revealing finder...his reaction to which is:

Ruse said:

Well, that fucking blows. Gamelon's more or less dead, since we all know how much of a crutch finders are here.

Seeing as how I don't think I could distance without making myself instantly obvious...

/lurk

And then some Grief reaction post find:

Telas said:

Quote

The past night, you investigated Gamelon and found that he is Big Ben.

Use this information as you will.


Sir Thursday

Good stuff, a success.

Only trouble now is getting people to believe me.

No counter will help(unless there are two finders, but that'd be overpowered).

Gam may counter. It's possible. If so, my word against his, we'll see what happens.

Doesn't help that it's do or die, because that means that people can't just go for lynch one, lynch the other.

I would expect him not to have too much trouble convincing everyone, to be honest - I don't think anyone is going to believe the counter-reveal in a do-or-die situation. But I guess we'll see.

I'm impressed with Grief's play as finder actually - he's kept out of the limelight, whittled down the list of suspects and been successful. Thing is, he's going to be who everyone looks at after Big Ben shifts, because they'll expect Shin to move the evilness there...


Sir Thursday

[Malaese]

so in theory tomorrow it goes to 4v2 with a vig and no finder, and no leads on BB? so d-day again and all CI's mean nothing.

[Sir Thursday]

Yeah, the innos really needed to find BB a little earlier. I think Fener should use his vig tonight - means the innos don't lose it should he become BB, and would reduce the pool somewhat.

With hindsight, I think Alt and PB should perhaps have tried to use their pairedness earlier in the game - once BB dies for the first time all it does is create paranoia, and thus is more of a hindrance than anything else. I suppose neither of them were ever really all that suspicious...but still, it would have forced BB to kill them off in fear of them having some kind of ability to go with their pairedness. No criticism, just a thought of what would perhaps have been a good strategy given those roles.


Sir Thursday

[Mentalist]

ah, Shin.... why did you have to switch?

you were doing so good... sigh

[Malaese]

Heh Gamelon figured out he should have revealed finder first today and had a really strong chance of winning.

[Sir Thursday]

Malaese, on May 21 2009, 02:20 AM, said:

Heh Gamelon figured out he should have revealed finder first today and had a really strong chance of winning.

Thing is, if he was going to reveal finder he would have had to have been sure that the player he fingered was not in a pair, or else they'd reveal they were paired and he would get offed. I can't remember if Meanas and Fener put codes in - if they did, that would have meant Fener, D'riss and Tennes were off limits, leaving only Telas, Silanah and Liosan as people to point the finger at. 50/50 shot I guess...

Still, even if he dies it's not the end of the world, his backup only has to last one night...


Sir Thursday

[Mentalist]

well, that, and keep the UB alive....

[Path-Shaper]

OK, some PMs for your entertainment:

Grief moans about lack of activity:

Telas said:

No one is around.
No one.

Typical. Just horribly typical.

Meaning I may not be around to answer questions.

Damn.

Here's a conversation between PB and Alt:

D'riss said:

Tennes said:

D'riss said:

Telas revealed finder and called out Gamelon as Big Ben. He claims he checked me on night one, Meanas night 2 (just got killed) and Gamelon night 3. Since I am obviously inno and Meanas is dead, I'm inclined to believe the reveal.

I suggest you post your coded bit and we fake-reveal as healers to save Telas for two nights, but I'll let you actually make the announcement.

Lemme think about it, it's 2am and just checked the board because I woke up and couldnt sleep. So I could do it tomorrow morning, or tomorrow evening when we're both around. If we do fake reveal we need to get a pretty solid story together, who we healed on which nights etc. Like I said, I'm just worried the actual healer has a brainfreeze and counterclaims. The only problem is that people would ask why we had to reveal that we are healers - we could heal Telas without announcing it on thread and get a night without any NKs, which would no longer happen. Which would make people suspicious and distract them, despite our obvious innocence. Healers almost never reveal, so doing so for no apparent reason woud be odd. We might be able to attract the first NK of the new BB, but it wont help that much. It will be D-Day again, so Telas would have to hit scum again that same night. Chances arent that great and we cant trust him anymore after the shift, I dont really know if it's worth us sacrificing ourselves for a benefit we cant really trust.

Telas revealing is convenient. I havent run throught the maths again, but you said today is still d-day even without the lynch, so if Telas is BB or UB then scum wins the game... Obviously we will have to wait and see if anyone counters, if not I guess we have to go with it and hope, there isnt much else to do and we were already pretty lost even before the forum started acting up.

Yes today is D-Day. (6-2 current numbers) Wrong lynch gets us to 4-2 and that's game because even assuming a correct lynch, it's 2-2 afterwards and scum win. Sad thing is that even if he's telling the truth, it's STILL 4-2 tomorrow and that means it's still D-Day with a new Big Ben (4-2 goes to 2-2 on an inno lynch), although we may just vote night tomorrow to see what happens.

I'm in favor of NOT revealing healers if you want. We can't really trust Telas like you said, after today, if he's telling the truth now, so may as well just get numbers and keep our 'role' secret. Ideally, let's reveal when we're both on. If that's tomorrow night for you, so be it, but I'm worried about possible speed lynches right now.

I think Alt's reservations about revealing as a healer are valid ones - people are going to look at it and wonder why they would reveal in such a position...

Bent has a question for PS that I'm not sure how to answer. Can you respond to when you get on, JA?

Fener said:

Sorry man, I figured it would be me. Now, heres a thought, do I reveal I still have a vig or not? No idea who UB is, but if its Telas, he's smart to reveal as finder and get the first BB lynched, thus CIing himself. Damn, what to do, what to do....sigh, I'm so rone-ry......one bright side, Im not dead yet, and wont die for at least one more night, so that means

a. I am a prime target to become BB
b. I can hold my vig for one more night

In fact, I think I'll hold off one night, just for spoilers, you have no idea how tempting it is to reveal I have a vig left, and then use it on myself, lol. In fact, I may actually play it that way, that would possibly invite BB to take me, then my Provisional would go though, killing me and making me a loser, but a hero. But that might be stupid, if BB doesn't take the bait. Hmmmm.

PS, could I do that? Vig myself tonight? Even if BB gave me his powers after the lynch? How would that work?

Shin submits a provisional for tonight. I include my response to his query about moving to the temp forum.

Path-Shaper said:

Gamelon said:

Path-Shaper said:

Would you mind if we move this game to the temp forum?

If not, please go there and post in the thread in "Entertainment"
http://z10.invisionf...dex.php?act=idx


Cheers, JA

Ok, what's the mechanics of it though? Is the entire thread going to move over, or just picking up where we left off? I just have to make sure my 'brilliant' defense against Telas' reveal sinks into everyone's brain so taht they all lynch him.

Bastard.

Oh, and I'll provisional while I'm at it, assuming they decide to lynch Telas rather than me.

Kill D'riss. If by some wild and wacky happenstance they lynch D'riss, kill Telas.

I believe JA sent this just before the boards went down earlier. The plan is that if the boards go down again, we continue discussion on the other board (no way to transplant the rest of the thread, but it will let people continue discussions etc.). If need be we can transfer the conversation over there back here afterwards.

Provisional noted.


Sir Thursday

And finally PB with some analysis:

D'riss said:

If we can deduce or guess correctly who is BB of Telas and Gamelon, then assuming that neither one of us becomes BB, our win condition may not be that badly harmed. Check this out.

Below list is people still alive:
D'riss, Fener, Gamelon, Liosan, Ruse, Silanah, Telas, Tennes

Now, same list, with VPI/CI and BB removed:
D'riss, Fener, Gamelon, Liosan, Ruse, Silanah, Telas, Tennes

Which means that if we lynch correctly, we know Liosan, Ruse, or Silanah is Uncle Ben. Before the lynch and after the reveal we make all the VPI/CI well known. Then, assuming we get it right and the game isn't over, we MUST lynch one of Liosan, Ruse, and Silanah the next day. BB will NOT want to shift into any of those three because that means we get a 2-in-3 chance of correctly lynching a scum. So one of the VPI/CIs will become BB.

UB:
Liosan, Ruse, Silanah

BB after a correct lynch today
D'riss, Fener, Tennes, Gamelon/Telas (the one we didn't lynch)

However, the new BB is also going to kill someone that night! There's no way he kills one of Liosan, Ruse, or Silanah, because that puts our chances of getting UB at 50% (random guess, likely higher than 50% after re-reads). Thus, he's going to kill one of the people he doesn't shift into!

So, we'll know that one-of-three players is Uncle Ben and one-of-the-other-three players is Big Ben.

Sir Thursday

This post has been edited by Path-Shaper: 21 May 2009 - 02:33 AM

[Mentalist]

as to Bent's query:
once there's a BB lynch, thread is locked, all provs are disregarded.

once a new BB is chosen, that overrides previous orders.
so no, Bent can't suicide to screw evil over, because if he becomes BB, he must submit a kill (and a vig, so he gets 2 kills in one night, I think), before night is resolved.
since vigging himself makes team evil lose, and he is gonna have evil victory condition, it goes directly against his team and is thus, not allowed.

however, if someone else is chosen as new BB, and Bent still has a prov on himself and doesn't cancel it, i'd let it run once all other actions are in.
but that's because I dislike cheap ploys like that, and I would punish people for them.

[Malaese]

If he becomes BB he loses the vig, it's in the rules.

[Mentalist]

unfortunate... but probably, fair,

[HoosierDaddy]

Shin's pretty good. Smoothe-like.

[Path-Shaper]

Wow, once again thanks for taking care of the game

Let's hope this time the boards stays long enough to make a normal day

JA

[HoosierDaddy]

If Shin logics his way out of lynch by pulling off spoiler-thread and other game logic he deserves the win that Inno will give him. Well done Shin in a Finder rebuttal.

[Path-Shaper]

And the fact that UB silenced BB's target will end up playing for them

And I'm also impressed by Shin's rebuttal of the reveal.


JA

[Malaese]

Path-Shaper, on May 21 2009, 12:40 AM, said:

And the fact that UB silenced BB's target will end up playing for them

And I'm also impressed by Shin's rebuttal of the reveal.


JA

It shouldn't if they think it through, silence over the weekend, no lynch, 1 night kill. UB/BB know each other, but who knows.

[Path-Shaper]

Some PMs:

The doomed BB:

Gamelon said:

I would like to apologize to Tapper, for using his kindly advice after the last game, as part of my desperate defense.

<bows>

The finder:

Telas said:

Kind of feels like Silanah is fake symping me.

I know UB is out there, but he hasn't revealed himself.

If sil keeps fake symping, people may go UB/BB, and since I was silenced etc, would look bad.

I can't pull him up on it either, because if I do people will pick up it, saying "BB telling UB to be less obvious".

Bugger. If he's UB, it's nicely played.

Quote

Either that or I'm a bit paranoid.

But that can't be right in mafia can it?

[Path-Shaper]

Some thoughts from dktorode:

Silanah said:

Havent really posted much to PS but as a i am roleless i tend to put all my thoughts on thread anyways and have nothing much to say to you guys.

I am thinking that if no one pushes the telas reveal and everyone shows a degree of caution (wich is what has happened so far)
Then our best bet is to believe Telas...im seeing some people dispute the telas reveal somewhat and these could very well be the UB in action. Ruse for example could be UB or even BB trying to win it tonight by getting us to go for telas tonight.

I want to see what everyones feelings are first...i think we can figure out who is lying in the end...at least i think i can.

[Path-Shaper]

Big Shin feels the end coming:

Quote

I want to know what I've done to make people "lean" my way.

Note to self:

When I next find myself with a scum role and all I need to do to win is buy a single day or two for my team - fake reveal and watch the sheep pile on.

A tiny minority will say "I don't like trusting finder reveals" but then pile on anyways apparently.

At this point I'm probably going to make an almost entirely random choice of who to move into. It can't be Fener, since he will try to use his vig. Since BB loses the extra kill by moving into the vig, if only one kill happens it'll be obvious that Fener is the new BB. Which is also why I believe him, because if he was lying and can't vig, they should lynch him tomorrow whether I moved into him or not.

Humph, I was right about Meanas, but slick play by those two had me looking at it backwards.

So, not Ruse, Telas or Fener.

Leaving Lio, Sil, Tennes and D'riss. I'll probably roll a 4 sided dice or something.

[Path-Shaper]

I feel Shin's pain, last game I fake-revealed with a guilty find and they lynched me

Honestly, there's little he could do. Lynching him is the "normal" thing to do. Since there's no hole in Telas' story, there's no reason not to. That's why late fake-reveals are so powerful (assuming one doesn't fuck it up as badly as mine last game, that is).

This post has been edited by Path-Shaper: 21 May 2009 - 12:46 PM