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Mafia 45.5: Benses III, The Mage Showdown. Game thread

#1441 User is offline   Fener 

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Posted 21 May 2009 - 02:18 PM

View PostSilanah, on May 21 2009, 10:14 AM, said:

your not really going to vig someone because he left out a persons name are you?

thats daft....even if i WAS BB....why would i deliberately leave out UB's name...?



Like I said, you may have expected your kill to go through, also.

#1442 User is offline   Fener 

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Posted 21 May 2009 - 02:22 PM

I need to work for a half hour or so, you guys discuss.

#1443 User is offline   Silanah 

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Posted 21 May 2009 - 02:25 PM

View PostGamelon, on May 14 2009, 02:29 PM, said:

Ok, I just looked through a bunch of different peoples posts. The truth is, if you eliminate the people who were were more aggressive with throwing accusations around (Driss, Telas), there isn't much to look at with ANYONE'S posts, regardless of total post count.

Emurlahn of course was handicapped on day one, but if he had enough time to post pictures for limericks, you would think he could have spotted something to make a case on today.

Silanah has been very active, but he accuses me of just agreeing with people. I seem to remember the same attack being leveled at you yourself Sil. I suppose you've made more waves though, since people leveled accusations against you.

Liosan has a high post count, but if you inspect it, it's a lot of railing against spam and spammers. After that dies down, he doesn't post very much. In fact, he's the one person who doesn't even vote.

As for lower post counters,

Ruse questions cases, but only joined a vote train rather than contribute anything original.

Fener is combative. He either likes to get under Sil's skin, or he's hiding in a low post count AND making sure he sticks out just enough.

Tennes, I got nothin', his post count is just low.

To be honest, and I know it's perhaps a little mean since he's silenced now, but Liosan's the one that's bothering me at the moment. Build up a high post count by railing against spam, which is not going to come across as scummy in and of itself, and then cruise for a while.

I know this read's like a laundrey list, but there isn't anything strong on anyone for the most part. I'm going to go back and read Lio's posts to see if there's anything else.


I'm sure this is an enormous cross post. I started writing this after Ruse's post.

Edited to add: after ruse's 1st post. I'm slow.




hmmmm see if we can find anything here!!

#1444 User is offline   Silanah 

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Posted 21 May 2009 - 02:28 PM

View PostFener, on May 21 2009, 03:18 PM, said:

View PostSilanah, on May 21 2009, 10:14 AM, said:

your not really going to vig someone because he left out a persons name are you?

thats daft....even if i WAS BB....why would i deliberately leave out UB's name...?



Like I said, you may have expected your kill to go through, also.



dont be daft... so you think i have picked d'riss for the kill and then left him out when naming who was left?
god you would think i would take care in putting his name in there wouldnt you?

I just forgot there was 7 people playing still....i named the guys i think are not UB and the the "REST" i merely forgot about D'riss as he hasnt been around for a while.

Good lord you people jump at shadows...

#1445 User is offline   Silanah 

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Posted 21 May 2009 - 02:29 PM

anyways....in that post I quoted...gamelon says he does not like liosan....so you can pretty much count him out as UB i reckon.

#1446 User is offline   Silanah 

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Posted 21 May 2009 - 02:31 PM

View PostGamelon, on May 14 2009, 02:32 PM, said:

View PostRuse, on May 14 2009, 02:26 PM, said:

So, now that I've caught up:

View PostFener, on May 14 2009, 08:37 AM, said:

Yeah, that sucked

Vote Silanah

Just to watch you get all pissed again.


Oh please. Fener, a braindead monkey could've devised a better case by taking a shit. But seeing as how you're completely oblivious to reason, I'd prefer to let you keep pissing into the wind.



But so I was sitting on the bus today, telling myself I'd build a case on Kesso who struck me as odd/cruising, but of course he gets NKed. We're getting into WIFOM territory here, but I'd expect the killer to avoid thinning the suspects among the group they're hiding in. And along with the fact that the killer sort of lives on (well at least they can make an inno the killer when they die) I'd actually expect not caution but a more brazen style of play.

Again, rather WIFOM here.

But I'd like to take a look at some of the higher posters. If D'riss is BB he's got some massive balls and deserves a high five, but it's doubtful. For some reason Meanas and Liosan come to mind among this group of non-low-posters. Since Liosan can't exactly defend himself, I'm going to do a reread of Meanas and see what I can come up with.



I'd be interested to see if you notice anything about Lio. I haven't looked at Meanas or Korv yet.


Here he "confides" in ruse

#1447 User is offline   Silanah 

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Posted 21 May 2009 - 02:31 PM

I dunno where tennes has been looking but m finding some stuff here

#1448 User is offline   Silanah 

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Posted 21 May 2009 - 02:34 PM

View PostGamelon, on May 14 2009, 02:29 PM, said:

Ok, I just looked through a bunch of different peoples posts. The truth is, if you eliminate the people who were were more aggressive with throwing accusations around (Driss, Telas), there isn't much to look at with ANYONE'S posts, regardless of total post count.



I missed this.....he "eliminates" D'riss and then puts light onto ruse and tennes and Very much so on Liosan......so i can see D'riss being UB.

#1449 User is offline   Silanah 

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Posted 21 May 2009 - 02:43 PM

from about page 19 ther is allot of interaction between My accusations of gamelon and tennes, ruse both defend him at a point...D'riss was missing.

Also Ruse is having an argument and completely ignore my accusations on Gamelon....not sure if he is trying to change focus or just wasnt fussed?....

Go read pages 19-21 lets see if we can get a different perspective?.....somebody?

#1450 User is offline   Silanah 

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Posted 21 May 2009 - 02:43 PM

am i alone?

fuck.....

#1451 User is offline   Silanah 

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Posted 21 May 2009 - 02:52 PM

Well im gone in 19 minutes

So...

can i just remind all innos

DO NOT....DO FUCKING NOT FUCKING PLACE A VOTE TOMORROW
UNTILL WE HAVE ALL DECIDED ON WHO TO LYNCH.

THE SCUM CAN QUICKLY PILE ON TO ONE WRONG VOTE....


#1452 User is offline   Silanah 

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Posted 21 May 2009 - 02:56 PM

and im out....

ill be gone for 16 hours...you will need my vote for victory if UB and BB are still alive.
If you are hammering someone and i am not there then that will be the losing vote....so please wait for me to return!

thats unless fener vigs me that is...then you are on your own...but still follow my advice about the voting please


cheers

#1453 User is offline   Telas 

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Posted 21 May 2009 - 02:59 PM

View PostSilanah, on May 21 2009, 10:56 AM, said:

and im out....

ill be gone for 16 hours...you will need my vote for victory if UB and BB are still alive.
If you are hammering someone and i am not there then that will be the losing vote....so please wait for me to return!

thats unless fener vigs me that is...then you are on your own...but still follow my advice about the voting please


cheers

Odd, you don't mention the possibility of BB killing you.

#1454 User is offline   Fener 

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Posted 21 May 2009 - 03:26 PM

Telas, do you have your find in. I gotta be honest, i don't want my vig to be out loud, because I dont want BB to have that info. Then take no action to make it look like I am BB and dont have a vig anymore.

#1455 User is offline   Fener 

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Posted 21 May 2009 - 03:32 PM

well shit

#1456 User is offline   D'riss 

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Posted 21 May 2009 - 03:36 PM

I'm here and caught up. And I can prove I'm not Uncle Ben.

#1457 User is offline   Fener 

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Posted 21 May 2009 - 03:41 PM

ok, then go ahead.

#1458 User is offline   D'riss 

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Posted 21 May 2009 - 03:46 PM

Obviously it can't clear up any speculation on who the new Big Ben may be, but I can confirm that I am partnered with Tennes. I don't know if he's around right now but I think the night timer has a lot of time left so if you don't put in your vig yet, even if BB has put in a kill, Tennes should hopefully get on in time to confirm that neither of us were UB.

I would request that you let him come on so that we can post our proof in short order. If I posted it now, there's no guarantee someone couldn't 'crack' it before he gets on.

edit: typoz

This post has been edited by D'riss: 21 May 2009 - 03:47 PM


#1459 User is offline   D'riss 

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Posted 21 May 2009 - 04:10 PM

Since I'm waiting on Tennes anyway, here's the outcome scenario I discussed with Tennes that gives town the best chance of winning. It was written before the lynch, before Fener's second vig reveal, but after Telas's finder reveal. We had Fener as VPI because nobody counter-claimed his vig, and we were CI'ing ourselves, obviously.

----------------
If we can deduce or guess correctly who is BB of Telas and Gamelon, then assuming that neither one of us becomes BB, our win condition may not be that badly harmed. Check this out.

Below list is people still alive:
D'riss, Fener, Gamelon, Liosan, Ruse, Silanah, Telas, Tennes

Now, same list, with VPI/CI and BB removed:
D'riss, Fener, Gamelon, Liosan, Ruse, Silanah, Telas, Tennes

Which means that if we lynch correctly, we know Liosan, Ruse, or Silanah is Uncle Ben. Before the lynch and after the reveal we make all the VPI/CI well known. Then, assuming we get it right and the game isn't over, we MUST lynch one of Liosan, Ruse, and Silanah the next day. BB will NOT want to shift into any of those three because that means we get a 2-in-3 chance of correctly lynching a scum. So one of the VPI/CIs will become BB.

UB:
Liosan, Ruse, Silanah

BB after a correct lynch today
D'riss, Fener, Tennes, Gamelon/Telas (the one we didn't lynch)

However, the new BB is also going to kill someone that night! There's no way he kills one of Liosan, Ruse, or Silanah, because that puts our chances of getting UB at 50% (random guess, likely higher than 50% after re-reads). Thus, he's going to kill one of the people he doesn't shift into!

So, we'll know that one-of-three players is Uncle Ben and one-of-the-other-three players is Big Ben.
--------------

The reason the above can't be counted upon AFTER the UB lynch guess (or vig, since Fener revealed a second) is that you guys went and lynched BB before I could post this, making it known that UB was one of three people.

So, while we KNOW that one of three people is UB, we can't guarantee that BB knew we knew that and shifted into one of D'riss, Fener, Tennes, or Telas to give himself the best odds of winning. Good thing is that if BB did shift into one of Liosan, Ruse, or Silanah, we now have a 2/3 chance of getting scum with a lynch. Bad thing is that after lynching/vigging one of them we can't really PI the other two.

#1460 User is offline   D'riss 

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Posted 21 May 2009 - 04:34 PM

I get the distinct feeling of tumbleweeds blowing across a desert landscape.

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