Posted 21 May 2009 - 04:10 PM
Since I'm waiting on Tennes anyway, here's the outcome scenario I discussed with Tennes that gives town the best chance of winning. It was written before the lynch, before Fener's second vig reveal, but after Telas's finder reveal. We had Fener as VPI because nobody counter-claimed his vig, and we were CI'ing ourselves, obviously.
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If we can deduce or guess correctly who is BB of Telas and Gamelon, then assuming that neither one of us becomes BB, our win condition may not be that badly harmed. Check this out.
Below list is people still alive:
D'riss, Fener, Gamelon, Liosan, Ruse, Silanah, Telas, Tennes
Now, same list, with VPI/CI and BB removed:
D'riss, Fener, Gamelon, Liosan, Ruse, Silanah, Telas, Tennes
Which means that if we lynch correctly, we know Liosan, Ruse, or Silanah is Uncle Ben. Before the lynch and after the reveal we make all the VPI/CI well known. Then, assuming we get it right and the game isn't over, we MUST lynch one of Liosan, Ruse, and Silanah the next day. BB will NOT want to shift into any of those three because that means we get a 2-in-3 chance of correctly lynching a scum. So one of the VPI/CIs will become BB.
UB:
Liosan, Ruse, Silanah
BB after a correct lynch today
D'riss, Fener, Tennes, Gamelon/Telas (the one we didn't lynch)
However, the new BB is also going to kill someone that night! There's no way he kills one of Liosan, Ruse, or Silanah, because that puts our chances of getting UB at 50% (random guess, likely higher than 50% after re-reads). Thus, he's going to kill one of the people he doesn't shift into!
So, we'll know that one-of-three players is Uncle Ben and one-of-the-other-three players is Big Ben.
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The reason the above can't be counted upon AFTER the UB lynch guess (or vig, since Fener revealed a second) is that you guys went and lynched BB before I could post this, making it known that UB was one of three people.
So, while we KNOW that one of three people is UB, we can't guarantee that BB knew we knew that and shifted into one of D'riss, Fener, Tennes, or Telas to give himself the best odds of winning. Good thing is that if BB did shift into one of Liosan, Ruse, or Silanah, we now have a 2/3 chance of getting scum with a lynch. Bad thing is that after lynching/vigging one of them we can't really PI the other two.