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I'm here. Let me go look over that Gamelon case on Lio real quick.
Mafia 45.5: Benses III, The Mage Showdown. Game thread
#1482
Path-Shaper 
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Posted 21 May 2009 - 06:43 PM
By the way, I added this clarification to UB's role because it applies to the current day's reasoning and I like when everything is clear for everyone. It was obvious to me, but now I realize it might not be for all.
Note that it doesn't necessarily mean that it applies to the day's situation. Proof is, if anything it will make your day more complex, and you all know I'm a sick bastard
That is all.
JA
Note that it doesn't necessarily mean that it applies to the day's situation. Proof is, if anything it will make your day more complex, and you all know I'm a sick bastard
Quote
This [the silencing] is a night action, and UB doesn't need to remain alive for his action to be effective
That is all.
JA
Only someone with this much power could make this many frittatas without breaking any eggs.
#1483
Fener
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Posted 21 May 2009 - 06:48 PM
Gamelon, on May 18 2009, 07:10 PM, said:
The weekend freeze has resulted in a really slow thaw!
Ok, I'm not sure if this really is a 'case', but I think it has some possibilities because I did find a suspicious post by Liosan. FYI, this is post #265 since I don't think the edit time stamp will appear in the quoted version.
Liosan edits this post with a long edit (which is what caught my eye). The post was made at 10:51. The edit was made a half hour later, at 11:22. If you read the post without the edit, you get the image of a Liosan toning down his stance on spam, saying he won't complain anymore. The tone of the post changes back to 'tough on spam' however, once the edit is added.
The next post after Lio's original is one by Silanah, who lends support for anti-spam at 11:13. Liosan adds a NEW POST at 11:21 to agree with Silanah, after which he goes BACK to edit the previous post to re-harden his stance against spam by suggesting the spam-system. There isn't any reason I can think of for Lio not to add this "spam system" as a new post. Why go back and edit the previous one?
Now, Liosan had a lot of posts before he was silenced on day 2. The thing is, he was combative about spam and spammers like D'riss and Rashan, but didn't do much else. He was the only one not to have a vote laid down at the end of the day because his spammer vote Rashan was mod-killed.
My speculation based on looking at this is that he was openly combative against spam, which got his profile and post count up and out there early on. At the same time, taking a stance against spam is something that won't be seen as scummy (except by the spammers maybe). He leaves and comes back later - apparently senses that his anti-spam routine isn't seeing much support, so he softens his stance. The whole post edit thing strikes me as overthinking, like he's speculating that his sudden softening of stance will be noticed. So after getting (or because of) encouragement from Sil he edits the post.
I'll admit it's a lot of speculation based on a post edit, but it's a post edit that makes some sense when interpreted as serving to hedge the original post. Otherwise why do it?
Ok, I'm not sure if this really is a 'case', but I think it has some possibilities because I did find a suspicious post by Liosan. FYI, this is post #265 since I don't think the edit time stamp will appear in the quoted version.
Liosan, on May 13 2009, 10:51 AM, said:
Wow. I expected a few pages from when I went to bed.
The thing that is most surprising to me is how many people like the spam. Shocked I guess would be more accurate. But I guess if the majority like a huge amount of spam, I wont complain about it anymore.
Edit: On a side note I was thinking that maybe we could setup some sort of Spam index. That way people who don't want to play in huge spam fests don't have too, and people who want too wont be harped on by those that don't like spam. Like maybe rate them low=10 spam posts per poster per twenty four hours, med=25, high=40, and then unlimited. The mod running the game could set it to their liking, and have the rating in the sign up thread. just an idea.
The thing that is most surprising to me is how many people like the spam. Shocked I guess would be more accurate. But I guess if the majority like a huge amount of spam, I wont complain about it anymore.
Edit: On a side note I was thinking that maybe we could setup some sort of Spam index. That way people who don't want to play in huge spam fests don't have too, and people who want too wont be harped on by those that don't like spam. Like maybe rate them low=10 spam posts per poster per twenty four hours, med=25, high=40, and then unlimited. The mod running the game could set it to their liking, and have the rating in the sign up thread. just an idea.
Liosan edits this post with a long edit (which is what caught my eye). The post was made at 10:51. The edit was made a half hour later, at 11:22. If you read the post without the edit, you get the image of a Liosan toning down his stance on spam, saying he won't complain anymore. The tone of the post changes back to 'tough on spam' however, once the edit is added.
The next post after Lio's original is one by Silanah, who lends support for anti-spam at 11:13. Liosan adds a NEW POST at 11:21 to agree with Silanah, after which he goes BACK to edit the previous post to re-harden his stance against spam by suggesting the spam-system. There isn't any reason I can think of for Lio not to add this "spam system" as a new post. Why go back and edit the previous one?
Now, Liosan had a lot of posts before he was silenced on day 2. The thing is, he was combative about spam and spammers like D'riss and Rashan, but didn't do much else. He was the only one not to have a vote laid down at the end of the day because his spammer vote Rashan was mod-killed.
My speculation based on looking at this is that he was openly combative against spam, which got his profile and post count up and out there early on. At the same time, taking a stance against spam is something that won't be seen as scummy (except by the spammers maybe). He leaves and comes back later - apparently senses that his anti-spam routine isn't seeing much support, so he softens his stance. The whole post edit thing strikes me as overthinking, like he's speculating that his sudden softening of stance will be noticed. So after getting (or because of) encouragement from Sil he edits the post.
I'll admit it's a lot of speculation based on a post edit, but it's a post edit that makes some sense when interpreted as serving to hedge the original post. Otherwise why do it?
Here, so not everyone has to look.
#1484
D'riss
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Posted 21 May 2009 - 06:49 PM
Okay re-read it and it does look like Gamelon had a pretty mad boner for Lio's edit. Not sure why he'd point out something like that and stay on it if Lio was UB. If we lynch Sil, it SEEMS likely that we will have for certain killed UB and then it's the last day.
edit: lol at crosspost, wish I had waited for you first
edit: lol at crosspost, wish I had waited for you first
This post has been edited by D'riss: 21 May 2009 - 06:50 PM
#1485
D'riss
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Posted 21 May 2009 - 06:57 PM
Re-read my own case and then the one PI'ing Lio a few times through... one of those three HAD to be UB. It's possible it was Lio but the massive hate out of nowhere for the master on his symp seems really strange. Would it PI his symp as not UB?
#1487
Fener
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Posted 21 May 2009 - 07:02 PM
Well, to be honest, I would rather use our last 2 lynches wisely. We let Sil live and try for you, tennes, or lio. Hope we pick right. if the game continues after that (no way im still alive,lol) the remaining 3 know that Ruse was UB, and then its up to the remaining 3 to get it right. I am making a mistake by saying Sil can stay alive, but what happens if you or Tennes is BB and we lynch Sil, then I get splat. that means you or tennes call on your partner, and then lynch the last inno. too risky. Its a shot in the dark either way, but I honestly think Tennes is a viable pick due mainly because of the below the radar stuff. Of course, so are you, sil and Lio, but tennes is the quieter of the bunch.
#1489
D'riss
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Posted 21 May 2009 - 07:08 PM
Wait, what?
Okay, so we lynch me, Tennes, or Liosan. If we pick wrong and Silanah is UB... the game is over. I KNOW you are CI and this isn't some weird diversionary tactic on your part, but by lynching Silanah, we can confirm that UB is dead (this again, all assumes that the case against Liosan was a pure scum case and not a diversion) and then it's 3 left to play. Yes, you are probably dead after the lynch =/
edit: My point is that we almost certainly have 2 lynches by going Silanah first, possibly only 1 lynch if we go someone else first. Either way, there's a guess among me, Tennes, and Lio in the mix.
Okay, so we lynch me, Tennes, or Liosan. If we pick wrong and Silanah is UB... the game is over. I KNOW you are CI and this isn't some weird diversionary tactic on your part, but by lynching Silanah, we can confirm that UB is dead (this again, all assumes that the case against Liosan was a pure scum case and not a diversion) and then it's 3 left to play. Yes, you are probably dead after the lynch =/
edit: My point is that we almost certainly have 2 lynches by going Silanah first, possibly only 1 lynch if we go someone else first. Either way, there's a guess among me, Tennes, and Lio in the mix.
This post has been edited by D'riss: 21 May 2009 - 07:10 PM
#1490
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Posted 21 May 2009 - 07:20 PM
D'riss, on May 21 2009, 03:08 PM, said:
Wait, what?
Okay, so we lynch me, Tennes, or Liosan. If we pick wrong and Silanah is UB... the game is over. I KNOW you are CI and this isn't some weird diversionary tactic on your part, but by lynching Silanah, we can confirm that UB is dead (this again, all assumes that the case against Liosan was a pure scum case and not a diversion) and then it's 3 left to play. Yes, you are probably dead after the lynch =/
edit: My point is that we almost certainly have 2 lynches by going Silanah first, possibly only 1 lynch if we go someone else first. Either way, there's a guess among me, Tennes, and Lio in the mix.
Okay, so we lynch me, Tennes, or Liosan. If we pick wrong and Silanah is UB... the game is over. I KNOW you are CI and this isn't some weird diversionary tactic on your part, but by lynching Silanah, we can confirm that UB is dead (this again, all assumes that the case against Liosan was a pure scum case and not a diversion) and then it's 3 left to play. Yes, you are probably dead after the lynch =/
edit: My point is that we almost certainly have 2 lynches by going Silanah first, possibly only 1 lynch if we go someone else first. Either way, there's a guess among me, Tennes, and Lio in the mix.
Thats what I am saying, Sil gets lynched, and I get NKed. Guess what
Its you, tennes and lio as the last 3. you and tennes are partnered, you can talk off thread, and probably trust each other. so you both lynch Lio, and scum wins if one of you is scum. sure we gain an extra day, but at least this way, we lynch you or tennes (your vote on sil is pretty scummy, too quick on the draw if Lio is UB, and tennes is BB, worst case scenario), then its a 3 way free for all.
#1491
Path-Shaper
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Posted 21 May 2009 - 07:20 PM
It is Day 5. 35 hours and 8 minutes remaining
5 Players still alive: D'riss, Fener, Liosan, Silanah, Tennes
3 votes to lynch, 3 votes to go to night
1 vote for Silanah: ( D'riss )
Players not voted: Fener, Liosan, Silanah, Tennes
This mod is going to bed - play nice
5 Players still alive: D'riss, Fener, Liosan, Silanah, Tennes
3 votes to lynch, 3 votes to go to night
1 vote for Silanah: ( D'riss )
Players not voted: Fener, Liosan, Silanah, Tennes
This mod is going to bed - play nice
Only someone with this much power could make this many frittatas without breaking any eggs.
#1492
Fener
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Posted 21 May 2009 - 07:23 PM
I also want to add that you might know your partner (ruse) is dead, and want to look for a quick sil lynch, so you and your other partner (Tennes) can lynch Lio and be done with it. See trust issues abound, and as I am the only CI, I would prefer everyone get on before voting, and we have time, the fuck it, lets get sil thing sucks, driss.
#1493
D'riss
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Posted 21 May 2009 - 07:34 PM
It's an odds game, dude. You have pretty much agreed with me here that the Lio was PI as UB. The numbers I posted earlier pointed pretty clearly to him, Ruse, or Sil being UB. We don't have to lynch UB to win, but BB didn't get to see that we had already worked out UB to within 3 people (which again, is 2 without Liosan), which means that Sil has a reasonable shot of being BB, in addition to his chances of being UB.
If you go on the premise that Lio is not UB, then if Sil is UB and you MISS today, there is no three-way free for all, it's game over. If you lynch Sil, yes it's 3 people but I doubt Tennes and I are just gonna go HIGH FIVE and say good bye Liosan.
If you go on the premise that Lio is not UB, then if Sil is UB and you MISS today, there is no three-way free for all, it's game over. If you lynch Sil, yes it's 3 people but I doubt Tennes and I are just gonna go HIGH FIVE and say good bye Liosan.
#1494
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Posted 21 May 2009 - 07:43 PM
Is anyone else really worried about what PS's announcement could mean? Is someone going to come online as silenced?
With regard to todays lynch, I'm comfortable with going for anyone except Fener. There's been way too little time since the switch for us to know one way or the other if anyone is now scum. I'm gonna assume Driss is inno to avoid WIFOMin myself into a puddle ala Grief and Khell last game, but if you guys decide that he's acting differently or whatever I'm not just gonna go with what he says because he's my partner.
I'm still undecided on whether we should try go for UB or just go with our best for BB and hope Ruse was UB/we accidentally hit UB. Going for UB could end the game if Driss is BB and ruse wasnt UB. And even if we hit UB all we gain is one less suspect the next day. As Driss said, Fener is almost guaranteed to go down tonight since he is CI and to be honest I dont want to be in a situation where I have to decide between my partner and whoever else.
With regard to todays lynch, I'm comfortable with going for anyone except Fener. There's been way too little time since the switch for us to know one way or the other if anyone is now scum. I'm gonna assume Driss is inno to avoid WIFOMin myself into a puddle ala Grief and Khell last game, but if you guys decide that he's acting differently or whatever I'm not just gonna go with what he says because he's my partner.
I'm still undecided on whether we should try go for UB or just go with our best for BB and hope Ruse was UB/we accidentally hit UB. Going for UB could end the game if Driss is BB and ruse wasnt UB. And even if we hit UB all we gain is one less suspect the next day. As Driss said, Fener is almost guaranteed to go down tonight since he is CI and to be honest I dont want to be in a situation where I have to decide between my partner and whoever else.
#1495
D'riss
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Posted 21 May 2009 - 07:57 PM
edit: LOLCHARTS FOR YOU.
Here are all the scenarios for us. You (Fener) are assumed to get killed tonight in each one.
Light green is a win, olive green goes one more day, red is a lose.
Possible scum: Driss, Liosan, Silanah, Tennes
BB: Driss
UB: Ruse (dead) << Lynch Driss and Win, Otherwise It's Driss v Two of Lio/Silanah/Tennes
BB: Driss
UB: Silanah << Lynch Driss and Win, Lynch Silanah and It's Driss v Tennes + Liosan, Lynch anyone else and lose
BB: Driss
UB: Liosan << Lynch Driss and win, Lynch Lio and It's Dris v Tennes + Silanah, Lynch anyone else and lose
BB: Tennes
UB: Ruse (dead) << Lynch Tennes and Win, Otherwise It's Tennes v Two of Driss/Silanah/Lio
BB: Tennes
UB: Silanah << Lynch Tennes and Win, Lynch Silanah and It's Tennes v Driss + Lio, Lynch anyone else and lose
BB: Tennes
UB: Liosan << Lynch Tennes and win, Lynch Liosan and It's Tennes v Driss + Silanah, Lynch anyone else and lose
BB: Liosan
UB: Ruse (dead) << Lynch Liosan and Win, Otherwise It's Liosan v Two of Driss/Silanah/Tennes
BB: Liosan
UB: Silanah << Lynch Liosan and Win, Lynch Silanah and It's Liosan v Driss + Tennes, Lynch anyone else and lose
BB: Silanah
UB: Ruse (dead) << Lynch Silanah and Win, Otherwise It's Silanah v Two of Driss/Lio/Tennes
BB: Silanah
UB: Liosan << Lynch Silanah and Win, Lynch Liosan and It's Silanah v Driss + Tennes, Lynch anyone else and lose
Just add up the scenarios where town can lose today:
Lynch Silanah -- Lose 2 out of 6 times
Lynch Liosan -- Lose 2 out of 6 times
Lynch Driss -- Lose 4 out of 6 times
Lynch Tennes -- Lose 4 out of 6 times
If we say Lio is probably not UB based on the interaction he had with Gamelon near the end, then it makes the most sense from the LOSING perspective to vote out Silanah because the two 'losing' cases that involve lynching Silanah involve me or Tennes as BB and Lio is UB.
Here are all the scenarios for us. You (Fener) are assumed to get killed tonight in each one.
Light green is a win, olive green goes one more day, red is a lose.
Possible scum: Driss, Liosan, Silanah, Tennes
BB: Driss
UB: Ruse (dead) << Lynch Driss and Win, Otherwise It's Driss v Two of Lio/Silanah/Tennes
BB: Driss
UB: Silanah << Lynch Driss and Win, Lynch Silanah and It's Driss v Tennes + Liosan, Lynch anyone else and lose
BB: Driss
UB: Liosan << Lynch Driss and win, Lynch Lio and It's Dris v Tennes + Silanah, Lynch anyone else and lose
BB: Tennes
UB: Ruse (dead) << Lynch Tennes and Win, Otherwise It's Tennes v Two of Driss/Silanah/Lio
BB: Tennes
UB: Silanah << Lynch Tennes and Win, Lynch Silanah and It's Tennes v Driss + Lio, Lynch anyone else and lose
BB: Tennes
UB: Liosan << Lynch Tennes and win, Lynch Liosan and It's Tennes v Driss + Silanah, Lynch anyone else and lose
BB: Liosan
UB: Ruse (dead) << Lynch Liosan and Win, Otherwise It's Liosan v Two of Driss/Silanah/Tennes
BB: Liosan
UB: Silanah << Lynch Liosan and Win, Lynch Silanah and It's Liosan v Driss + Tennes, Lynch anyone else and lose
BB: Silanah
UB: Ruse (dead) << Lynch Silanah and Win, Otherwise It's Silanah v Two of Driss/Lio/Tennes
BB: Silanah
UB: Liosan << Lynch Silanah and Win, Lynch Liosan and It's Silanah v Driss + Tennes, Lynch anyone else and lose
Just add up the scenarios where town can lose today:
Lynch Silanah -- Lose 2 out of 6 times
Lynch Liosan -- Lose 2 out of 6 times
Lynch Driss -- Lose 4 out of 6 times
Lynch Tennes -- Lose 4 out of 6 times
If we say Lio is probably not UB based on the interaction he had with Gamelon near the end, then it makes the most sense from the LOSING perspective to vote out Silanah because the two 'losing' cases that involve lynching Silanah involve me or Tennes as BB and Lio is UB.
This post has been edited by D'riss: 21 May 2009 - 07:59 PM
#1496
Fener
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Posted 21 May 2009 - 08:06 PM
But whats the fucking rush dris, hell, Lio and Sil havent even posted yet, and if I were to vote Sil and tennes hops on and bam, Im dead sil's dead, and the 2 of you have to decide which of you 3 to lynch, why not discuss it out. Ive been scum before, Ive pushed late game lynches to win. But as the only CI, and knowing I am going to die tonight unless we lynch BB, I am not rushing into any scenario, without getting all the info I can from ALL of the players.
#1497
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Posted 21 May 2009 - 08:11 PM
Fener, on May 21 2009, 01:06 PM, said:
But whats the fucking rush dris, hell, Lio and Sil havent even posted yet, and if I were to vote Sil and tennes hops on and bam, Im dead sil's dead, and the 2 of you have to decide which of you 3 to lynch, why not discuss it out. Ive been scum before, Ive pushed late game lynches to win. But as the only CI, and knowing I am going to die tonight unless we lynch BB, I am not rushing into any scenario, without getting all the info I can from ALL of the players.
Who ever said anything about rushing it? I said, "Fuck it" because I'm convinced Game was truly attacking Lio and not fake-symping him and that voting Sil is the best course of action. I still dunno why you think Tennes and I are going to just high-five lynch the last person if Sil is not BB.
Of COURSE you should wait for everyone to get on and post. I'm just not removing my vote right now because I already missed the last lynch before I could post a vote and my whole strat crap. I think it's the right action, so I go with it.
#1498
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Posted 21 May 2009 - 08:12 PM
Fener, on May 21 2009, 10:06 PM, said:
But whats the fucking rush dris, hell, Lio and Sil havent even posted yet, and if I were to vote Sil and tennes hops on and bam, Im dead sil's dead, and the 2 of you have to decide which of you 3 to lynch, why not discuss it out. Ive been scum before, Ive pushed late game lynches to win. But as the only CI, and knowing I am going to die tonight unless we lynch BB, I am not rushing into any scenario, without getting all the info I can from ALL of the players.
I'm not gonna put down a vote till everyone has checked in my tomorrow morning. Driss's logic makes sense I suppose but obviously we should wait until everyone has checked in. If you dont either that's also cool. I dont get the impression that Driss is trying to rush the lynch, just get you to see why he thinks sil is the best choice.
#1499
Liosan
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Posted 21 May 2009 - 09:07 PM
Ok I'm here and I'm not silenced.(Very hard day) Driss please pull your vote. Having that vote hanging there is very scumy. If you are now BB and UB is still out there, all it would take is one dumbass inno to add a vote to lose the game. So If you are Inno please pull that vote.
#1500
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Posted 21 May 2009 - 09:26 PM
Liosan, on May 21 2009, 02:07 PM, said:
Ok I'm here and I'm not silenced.(Very hard day) Driss please pull your vote. Having that vote hanging there is very scumy. If you are now BB and UB is still out there, all it would take is one dumbass inno to add a vote to lose the game. So If you are Inno please pull that vote.
Fine, but my case stands.
Remove Vote
