[Shadow]

Meanas, on May 5 2009, 08:33 AM, said:

Shadow, on May 5 2009, 04:31 PM, said:

Meanas, on May 5 2009, 08:10 AM, said:

I'm trying a new way of approaching Day 1. Other ways have been tried, and as we all know, they all tend to result in an inno death. Yes, of course, this could very easily be the same, but I don't believe trying something new is all that bad.

A huge bunch of lengthy cases makes sense after a couple of days worth of behavior to analyze.

On Day 1 ... it just looks like you're trying to deflect attention from someone or something. Makes me a lot more confident about my D'riss vote. Though I still think he'll come up Inno, as I see him as only a Symp.

They're not cases. They're pattern analyses. I decided to show you all my train of thought because I felt you might actually consider it all more suspicious if I just came out and said "right, I did a bunch of stuff, and I came up with Shadow. Vote Shadow".

Strangely, I had thought about doing the same thing, but using MS Paint to chart it using a gaussian distribution ... but decided it was waaaayy too much effort. And would have to be done late in the game, to find posting/voting patterns using a decent sample size.

Not even close to worth it on Day 1.

[Korvalain]

Telas, on May 5 2009, 11:56 AM, said:

Okay, I'm almost caught up, but I don't know when my modkill timer will wind down, so posting a placeholder. I actually have to go do a newspaper interview right now, but when I'm done that I'll return.

Aww. Telas is going to be famous. First its newspapers, then before you know it, you are on Springer, talking about how you like your she-males more than you do your sister!

[Kessobahn]

erm
there seems to be confusion on the Silanah issue, and now people are saying i'm defending him, so I know somethign they don't, wat?

my comment was pretty general, and referring to anyone looking for pairs and exposing them on day 1 (also known as "doing a Yellow TM" )

now, personally, I didn't feel like Silanah's "partner talk" was anything other than RL banter (and yes, I realize it now looks like i'mdefending him, )

Meanas' "new approach" is curious, but inherently worthless--lots of people try to not stick out on Day 1, not all of them are scum.
In fact, its uselessness makes me suspicious that he's a symp trying to lay down false trails all over the place--recall Morgy in the ninja symp game accusing every person in thread.

[Kessobahn]

Shadow, on May 5 2009, 05:01 PM, said:

Meanas, on May 5 2009, 08:33 AM, said:

Shadow, on May 5 2009, 04:31 PM, said:

Meanas, on May 5 2009, 08:10 AM, said:

I'm trying a new way of approaching Day 1. Other ways have been tried, and as we all know, they all tend to result in an inno death. Yes, of course, this could very easily be the same, but I don't believe trying something new is all that bad.

A huge bunch of lengthy cases makes sense after a couple of days worth of behavior to analyze.

On Day 1 ... it just looks like you're trying to deflect attention from someone or something. Makes me a lot more confident about my D'riss vote. Though I still think he'll come up Inno, as I see him as only a Symp.

They're not cases. They're pattern analyses. I decided to show you all my train of thought because I felt you might actually consider it all more suspicious if I just came out and said "right, I did a bunch of stuff, and I came up with Shadow. Vote Shadow".

Strangely, I had thought about doing the same thing, but using MS Paint to chart it using a gaussian distribution ... but decided it was waaaayy too much effort. And would have to be done late in the game, to find posting/voting patterns using a decent sample size.

Not even close to worth it on Day 1.

or, you know, paste the post count in excel and do some stats.....

[Kessobahn]

7 anons and no one posting, wow

[Fener]

Back, and a whole lot of posts to read. I'll read through and see if I spot anything strange.

[Rashan]

yeah sorry, I am kinda around, but busy studying atm. I have 2 finals, each supposed to run 3 hours that start soon so I am cramming atm.

But I feel that Silanah's partner talk was RL related and someone was strawmanning it out of proportion. Think about it in terms of mafia, if they were partnered then they already know who their partner is and there would be no reason to annoucne that on thread. I'd be looking for the master/symp trying to signal, but it is possible they know each other since the opening scene has some evil working close together.

It sounds like evil is comprised of Vinizzi, Count Rugen, and the Prince. But that isn't quite balanced so I would expect evil to have 1 likely 2 symps on their team. One of them is probably the Prince's right-hand man that guards the gate (not sure the name) and my guess for the other would be the Albino since he works with Rugen to torture.

I haven't really seen anything too suspicious, except that Ruse thing talking about the name in the browser. But more on that in a minute let me dig something up.

edit: nevermind my game changing idea was actually a time zone fail on my part. I still think Ruse may have been signaling but hard to say at this point.

This post has been edited by Rashan: 05 May 2009 - 04:40 PM

[Serc]

Here catching up.

[Path-Shaper]

Silanah, I can seeeeeeeeeee youuuuuuuu...

[Anomandaris]

Interesting day. Meanas approach is different for day 1, but as has already been said, ultimately not worth a great deal. It's all very well looking for average behaviour, but we aren't automaton, there is no such thing as exactly average. And RL has such a big part in affecting how people play.

I have read the posts until my eyes hurt and none of the - dare I call them 'cases' seem strong…(and it seems I can't mention 'it's day 1 so that's to be expected'). The only things that have me thinking is Tennes drive by vote on Meanas. No case, except that Meanas doesn't like TPB…now clearly that is a lynchable offence, if there was nothing else on offer I'd vote for it, especially for day…err, today, but that's Tennes only post, I assume it's a joke vote and so…and here I get into a WIFOM argument with myself, not a scum tactic…or is it? And if it is a joke, why leave it on? Meh, brainache.

The Ruse 'signal' is either brilliant or stupid, and no I don't know which.

The other thing is D'riss dissembling, throwing out vague statements that sound substantial on the surface, but look a bit deeper and they mean less. Like the bit about either the last game or the one before, and that was after he was called on it by Ruse. I'm not sure it's enough for me to vote on yet though. I'll have another read, another think and then I'll decide.

(I will be around for the rest of the day, but have only one working arm, so bear with the slow typing!)

[Telas]

Korvalain, on May 5 2009, 12:03 PM, said:

Telas, on May 5 2009, 11:56 AM, said:

Okay, I'm almost caught up, but I don't know when my modkill timer will wind down, so posting a placeholder. I actually have to go do a newspaper interview right now, but when I'm done that I'll return.

Aww. Telas is going to be famous. First its newspapers, then before you know it, you are on Springer, talking about how you like your she-males more than you do your sister!

Yeuch, no, I'll stick to the sister and a cousin. The only dick that should ever enter the equation is mine own.

So, some convoluted situations on day 1 already. Zounds. Uh, I really don't know what I think atm about most of the articles in question. However, I do know that I like the stuff about D'riss and think Shadow is also suspicious. I passed Silanah's partner comment as simply revelling in his homosexuality, (I mean come on its socially acceptable now, just say boyfriend) so until something else comes up I won't be pursuing that lead. Uh, for now I guess I'll just

vote D'riss

and see where that takes us.

[Silanah]

Did I just see a load of almost completely senseless cases thrown around on Day One?
And yeah, sorry PS, just reading up...
I'm not sure what to say about any of the cases on the last two pages, except they all seem to bullshit attempts to muddy the waters... I can't see any real patterns, no sign of people working together that are blatantly obvious, and I doubt they would beon Day One, unless our killers are idiots...
unvote
I was hasty earlier... I'm going to look over the last page again and place my vote on one of the "patterns" posted earlier, in a second. brb

[Korvalain]

I know this is redundant. But I don't feel enough thought is being put forward on my suspicions of D'riss. Several people have said its an over reaction, however, I am going to piece together a case, right now its all scattered. Maybe this way it will make more sense. If it is dismissed, I have several others pinging my radar. And can move on, however, I feel pretty certain about D'riss right now.

Part one.

Korvalain, on May 4 2009, 06:13 PM, said:

Korlat, on May 4 2009, 06:09 PM, said:

Korvalain, on May 5 2009, 10:02 AM, said:

Silanah, on May 4 2009, 10:00 AM, said:

D'riss, on May 4 2009, 02:59 PM, said:

Ruse, on May 4 2009, 09:51 AM, said:

Hello everyone. And what cave do you live in D'riss to have not seen the movie?

I saw the beginning in grade school or something, but I damn well don't remember the details.

Tsk tsk.... Watch it online. I'm going to watch it again tonight with the partner, just to refresh my memory... Make some commitment to your Mafia games!

Just something odd I saw. But worth a vote early day one.

I was on when he posted that. I thought that it was a reference to his RL. Doesn't really seem all that unusual to me. Wouldn't hurt to keep a watch on what else he says. If we have paired killers then it might have been a signal from a symp. That is really the best that it could be right now. As Meanas says partners would know who each other are even if they can't talk off thread.

Like I said. Its not a major thing. But needed to be pointed out, and I see nothing thus far to vote for other than that. For now, anyway.

Here is my explanation on why I decided to vote Silanah, in my first post. Not overly agressive, not jumping at shadows, just a simple point that not a single person on at that time had mentioned as strange. They just ran with it. SO I pointed it out, and voted accordingly.

D'riss, on May 4 2009, 06:37 PM, said:

Now that I've gotten some food...tbh the case with silanah is far from substantial. Now, my continued hunger (typing as I eat) is probably impairing my judgment, but I'm inclined to leave that as only a last-resort option. Besides that, I imagine that at least half our paired guys are inno, so it's not necessarily best to charge straight in and attack someone on suspicion they're paired.

Here is what set me off. It is typically a scummy thing to discredit someone by alienating the person who put forth the vote. Note the use of the words - far from substantial (I never said it was, in fact in the quote above, I said so myself, but you needed to point out the weakness of the "case"). Also the word "attack". I ask two qotes below this, how one vote and me saying its probably nothing are "attacking".

Another thing about this quote is the way you say "you're inclined to leave it as a last resort option." Strikes me as an odd thing to say, especially when you feel that the "case" is so weak.

Korvalain, on May 4 2009, 06:52 PM, said:

D'riss, on May 4 2009, 06:37 PM, said:

Now that I've gotten some food...tbh the case with silanah is far from substantial. Now, my continued hunger (typing as I eat) is probably impairing my judgment, but I'm inclined to leave that as only a last-resort option. Besides that, I imagine that at least half our paired guys are inno, so it's not necessarily best to charge straight in and attack someone on suspicion they're paired.

This isn't scummy at all. Coming in and saying my vote is a "case". And then saying that my reasoning is flawed because I mention the remark, thereby discrediting me, and any future reference I make. Kind pisses me off actually. Taking a single vote on a person and turning it into a solid case. Then saying that said case is rubbish.

Remove Vote Vote D'riss

Edit: to bold

Here is were I state just that.

Korvalain, on May 4 2009, 06:54 PM, said:

Also D'riss, If you are still around, how is one vote on someone "attacking"?

Here I ask a question, but get ignored. How do I know ignored? Because you are still on and respond to Shadows question. below

D'riss, on May 4 2009, 08:31 PM, said:

Shadow, on May 4 2009, 06:58 PM, said:

D'riss, on May 4 2009, 03:37 PM, said:

I imagine that at least half our paired guys are inno, so it's not necessarily best to charge straight in and attack someone on suspicion they're paired.

Why would you even feel the need to speculate about Inno mechanics?

Because if he's right but has found inno then he could be telling all the scum who our healers/finders/guards or whatever are.

edit: brainfart + grammar

So now you think I am revealing pertinent info. Not only is this weak, it contradicts what you just said about my "case" Remember, you said last resort, meaning to me that you would vote on it only if there was nothing better, but if thats the case, why would you feel the need to vote against a paired inno. See contradictions abound.

Part 2 coming up.

[Silanah]

@ Meanas:

You've taken the number of posts people have, done a pseudo-mathematical approach to picking targets, picked on a few things (the rodent of unusual size was used during the Princess Bride day by Shinrei, iirc, so its not an unusual thing to remember, yet you seem to find it very specific, and still claim to not have seen it... That was just going around in circles. It's Day One, so posts are bound to suffer from a lack of content; look at my first few posts for God's sake.
I have had some wine today, so expect this counter-argument to be a little bit over the place, btw.
You are excluding Korvalain because his posting content wasn't average? I disagree. In fact, I find that his posts have been no more or less valuable than anyone elses. Because of this ridiculous attempt to finger half a dozen people, I'm tempted to label one or two as PI, but I wouldn't be surprised if that was the plan.
A flimsy case like this stands up to no examination, but if, by chance, one of these people is lynched and they come up scum, you can clear youself slightly by having "suspected" them earlier.
I'm going to vote Gamelon, because you seem to be excluding him for jumping about and not being sure whether to place a vote on Ruse or not; I've so far seen nothing from Ruse that has drawn my eye that much, whereas I dislike Gamelon's style already.
Vote Gamelon
Because of the argument you made, because he isn't standing by his own arguments, because I think he's jumping around, which I find suspicious.

[Serc]

Okay caught up.

Meanas I'm honored to almost get your "Mr/Mrs Average Poster For Day 1" award, LOL but I think I am going to agree with the vast majority of people who are saying that it's just as effective at 'getting information' as it is from 'random voting to apply pressure.'

Last game the symps hid in the low posters and the killers were among the highest posters, so I guess the same pattern is going to develop here.

Ruse is chatting it up with everybody he can right now (last several posts he talks directly to or about Ampelas, Meanas, Shadow, Galain, Tellan, Hood's Path, D'riss, and Silanah). First thing that jumps to my mind is, "He likes to talk about a lot of people," which screams "symp" in my mind.

It's probably just as shit a case as any other Day 1 case but if you are going to single out Shadow for scumish behavior (and I DO agree that the whole '0 hour nights will speed the game along' comment being mad suspicious) by trying to pin random stuff on D'riss, I'd say you have to take the next step and see who's throwing as many names out there as possible. So for the time being...

Vote Ruse

[Korvalain]

Part 2

D'riss, on May 5 2009, 10:29 AM, said:

Ruse, on May 5 2009, 10:23 AM, said:

D'riss, on May 5 2009, 06:06 AM, said:

My personal interpretation:

A.Korvalain placed a vote with a peculiar explanation. He claimed that Silanah's "slip" (I quote that because it's nothing close) indicated he had a partner.

B.I noticed this after skimming through several pages, saw that several people mentioned it, an (egregiously) assumed there was legitimate thought/agreement. My remark about it is over-reacting, I guess, and some might construe this post to be the same. I'm unsure how to refute that since this is how I'm accustomed to posting. =/

Afterward, Kessobahn semi-agreed with me. Think about it for a sec: someone pointed out a clue that could lead to an inno pair, a prime target for an NK. The same thing happened last game or the game before I think, and I don't recall it helping anyone.

Korvalain over-reacted (see what I did there?) to my response's phrasing and put a vote on me. Others followed suit.

Shadow voted for me and insisted on mentioning that Silanah was less suspicious than I was. Some have considered that potentially scummy.


Honestly, most of the shit raining down on me at the moment is people blowing up my somewhat exaggerated wording to epic proportions. But hey, you're welcome to reread it and make your own judgments.

(Prepared for huge x-post).

Good god, what a dissembling post. If anything, this makes me happier with my vote. "Someone pointed" and "some considered" ? Way to make it as vague as possible! "several people" "someone" "some might construe"

Then you refer to some prior game, but you're not sure which game and don't bother going into any details. But the one thing you're clear about iin the post is that everyone is "blowing things up" and "exaggeration".

Again, writing style. Just finished writing a research paper last night, sue me.

On the other hand, you want specifics? You, Korvalain, and Shadow have more or less reacted in the exact same way here. As for the prior game, it's either last game or the game before. Seeing as how I got more or less shafted both games, I don't recall exactly which one it was. Someone outed an inno pair, and there was a huge shitstorm stirred up about it.

Now, this class + internet access is over...back, depending on the weather, in 5-8 hours.

Here D'riss lumps me, shadow and Ruse together, because we all think (for different reasons) that he is scummy.

Korvalain, on May 5 2009, 10:54 AM, said:

D'riss, on May 5 2009, 10:06 AM, said:

My personal interpretation:

A. Korvalain placed a vote with a peculiar explanation. He claimed that Silanah's "slip" (I quote that because it's nothing close) indicated he had a partner. I noticed this after skimming through several pages, saw that several people mentioned it, an (egregiously) assumed there was legitimate thought/agreement. My remark about it is over-reacting, I guess, and some might construe this post to be the same. I'm unsure how to refute that since this is how I'm accustomed to posting. =/

B.Afterward, Kessobahn semi-agreed with me. Think about it for a sec: someone pointed out a clue that could lead to an inno pair, a prime target for an NK. The same thing happened last game or the game before I think, and I don't recall it helping anyone.

C.Korvalain over-reacted (see what I did there?) to my response's phrasing and put a vote on me. Others followed suit.

D.Shadow voted for me and insisted on mentioning that Silanah was less suspicious than I was. Some have considered that potentially scummy.

A. My explanation wasn' peculiar. It stated that of all the things up to that point weren't suspicious, except for the use of the term "partner." I voted. Guess what happened, the thread blew up. As to you skimming several pages and seeing that several people mentioned it. I would like for you to go back and actually read the thread. Korlat said "D'riss should watch it with Silanah's partner." Omtose said "get in line baby". That was all that was said about it. Nothing about the peculiararity, just some jokes. Having said that, were I guessing, I would assume that Korlat was signaling Driss and Silanah that he is there symp. Although thats a stretch.

B. But you forgot to think that if little 'ol me could see it, it had to be obvious. Correct me if I',m wrong, but doesn't part A. of your quote say that several others saw it and disregaurded it, as did you. Well, then that means that me bringing it to the fore front didn't actually do any damage, since I wasn't the only one to notice it, right?

C. I didn't over-react. You called me basically an idiot for calling out possible paired innos. I just explained that your post was scummy, and voted accordingly.

D. This solidifies my point of you being scummy. You have now tried to draw attention to Shadow for his post and a case made by someone else, to get the heat off of you.

Here I respond to his accusations. Thats the secon part. As an addendum to A. I would like to point out that he says I claimed that Silanah's "slip" indicated he had a partner. I never said this. I said his use of the term partner was odd. Thats it. Thats why I think hes scum.

[Shadow]

Serc, on May 5 2009, 10:11 AM, said:

It's probably just as shit a case as any other Day 1 case but if you are going to single out Shadow for scumish behavior (and I DO agree that the whole '0 hour nights will speed the game along' comment being mad suspicious)

Anyone who has played a large number of Mafia games with 12 hour Nights will know exactly what I'm talking about. Especially in the larger games, where there might be a decent number of Roles, some of them held by people who take forever to get their damned provisionals in ...

Especially when the Nights continually coincide with my RL free time ...

[Tellan]

Can we get an update? I think we just hit 10 people with votes on them, which has to be a day 1 record.

[Korvalain]

Serc, on May 5 2009, 01:11 PM, said:

Okay caught up.
It's probably just as shit a case as any other Day 1 case but if you are going to single out Shadow for scumish behavior (and I DO agree that the whole '0 hour nights will speed the game along' comment being mad suspicious) by trying to pin random stuff on D'riss, I'd say you have to take the next step and see who's throwing as many names out there as possible. So for the time being...

Vote Ruse

I need some explanaition...I may have missed some info. But you say Ruse is singling out Shadow for scumish behavior by trying to pin random stuff on D'riss...yet they are both voting D'riss. I didn't think it was Ruse who started the whole Shadow looks scummy cause of that statement , thing. I thought he agreed with whoever said it. Shit clarify this, I am confused.

[Meanas]

Silanah, on May 5 2009, 06:10 PM, said:

@ Meanas:

You've taken the number of posts people have, done a pseudo-mathematical approach to picking targets, picked on a few things (the rodent of unusual size was used during the Princess Bride day by Shinrei, iirc, so its not an unusual thing to remember, yet you seem to find it very specific, and still claim to not have seen it... That was just going around in circles. It's Day One, so posts are bound to suffer from a lack of content; look at my first few posts for God's sake.
I have had some wine today, so expect this counter-argument to be a little bit over the place, btw.
You are excluding Korvalain because his posting content wasn't average? I disagree. In fact, I find that his posts have been no more or less valuable than anyone elses. Because of this ridiculous attempt to finger half a dozen people, I'm tempted to label one or two as PI, but I wouldn't be surprised if that was the plan.
A flimsy case like this stands up to no examination, but if, by chance, one of these people is lynched and they come up scum, you can clear youself slightly by having "suspected" them earlier.
I'm going to vote Gamelon, because you seem to be excluding him for jumping about and not being sure whether to place a vote on Ruse or not; I've so far seen nothing from Ruse that has drawn my eye that much, whereas I dislike Gamelon's style already.
Vote Gamelon
Because of the argument you made, because he isn't standing by his own arguments, because I think he's jumping around, which I find suspicious.

Erm, I'm not entirely sure how your case on Gamelon is any less flimsy than my 'cases' (again, not cases, analyses, the only case I made in the end was on Shadow, whom I voted for). I don't particularly care who you vote for at this stage, as your guess is probably as good as mine at the moment.

I don't know what you're talking about with the Shinrei thing - I obviously wasn't around for that. "I claim not to have seen it" - by this do you mean the film? Actually, I said I'd seen the film once and wasn't particularly enthused by it.

As I said, I don't care who you vote for at this stage, with so many ifs and buts around. But if you don't like what I've done, then put some effort in yourself.