[Adjutant Stormy~]

I think the Hail Mary in question is will their European community bail them out, and will it do any good?

[Gothos]

So their living standard will go down closer to our level. Cool.
I think you're jumping to conclusions too fast. "Others will follow" -> who? I can see Spain, Italy or Austria going down, but most other countries aren't quite the same category of trying to look cool on the outside.

And "Hail Mary time"? Man. Lowering living standards isn't the end of the world. Might turn out good in the long run. It's not an incoming mass starvation and Mad Max style wastelands. Where's the OHMYGODTHEAPOCALYPSEISCOMING attitude coming from?

[beru]

its nico

he can predict the end times from the loss of one penny...

[Gothos]

Adjutant Stormy, on 28 April 2010 - 06:37 AM, said:

I think the Hail Mary in question is will their European community bail them out, and will it do any good?

I hope not. Can't just bail out incompetent players without them going through fundamental changes, else we'll just get this shit again.

[Adjutant Stormy~]

Agreed. And (can't speak for nic, but) I was talking about a Greek government's credit Hail Mary. Not an end-of-the-world Hail Mary.

This post has been edited by Adjutant Stormy: 28 April 2010 - 07:02 AM

[Cold Iron]

Gothos, on 28 April 2010 - 06:43 AM, said:

So their living standard will go down closer to our level. Cool.
I think you're jumping to conclusions too fast. "Others will follow" -> who? I can see Spain, Italy or Austria going down, but most other countries aren't quite the same category of trying to look cool on the outside.

And "Hail Mary time"? Man. Lowering living standards isn't the end of the world. Might turn out good in the long run. It's not an incoming mass starvation and Mad Max style wastelands. Where's the OHMYGODTHEAPOCALYPSEISCOMING attitude coming from?

Austria? Only time I've heard that name in relation to this is that they don't approve of bailing out the Greeks. Any source?

[Gothos]

I must've had a brain fart or something. Good call. Somehow it stuck in my head that they had comparable public debt to Greece. Was Belgium tho O_o.

[Nicodimas]

Greek bonds at 2 year rates hit 38% interest...and there CDS was roughly at 995 bps.

http://ftalphaville....osed-to-greece/

It looks like they may get bailed out in the tune of 125 Billion dollars, so that is good news.

http://www.zerohedge...ding-cds-market

UPDATE 4/28-->

Italy had a failed bond auction as of 4/28.

Portugal and Greece own Spain roughly 290 Billion--->
http://tickerforum.o...etimagenr=70178

Spain got downgraded today also.
If Spain goes default that is the true domino as they will crush Eurozone.
524 Billion in DEBT to Germany.
385 Billion to France.
350 Billion to UK.
Are the top three.
Netherland is 184 Billion.

Ireland is a rumor, France and UK in that order are next to get crushed. I guess paying debt with more debt was a bad idea.

My theory is that the US are trying force Money in U.S. Tresuries.

http://www.zerohedge...-back-and-watch
Cool Graph for future use:


[img]http://http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/PIIGS%20Funding%20Needs.jpg[/img]

This post has been edited by Nicodimas: 01 May 2010 - 01:00 AM

[Nicodimas]

Meltup

Cool video on the meltup of the dollar. It's preety tough to deny any of this at ALL. Crazy stuff. I highly recommend this video.

Send this to everyone you know It's preety amazing.

This post has been edited by Nicodimas: 16 May 2010 - 07:56 PM

[Illuyankas]

Literally two and a half minutes into the video they say 'unemployment is at a multi-decade high RIGHT NOW' and have a higher number visible on the graph months earlier as they say it. Kind of destroys the point when they're wrong so damn quick.

Oh, and saying that instead of the estimates for how much the healthcare bill will cost becoming more realistic to fit in with how wrong the Medicare and Iraq War estimates were, that it'll cost 'many trillions of dollars' is ridiculously fucking stupid.

OH FOR THE LOVE OF FUCK VIDEO GET YOUR LIPS OFF OF RON PAUL'S COCK ALREADY

OK, I'm done. This video sucks. It's balls out biased inaccurate tripe and I feel dumber for having watched it even ten minutes of it.

This post has been edited by Illuyankas: 16 May 2010 - 08:17 PM

[Aptorian]

Too many unexplained graphs and strange statistics with out sources. It's like watching a crazy version of Michaels Moore's documentary style.

[Nicodimas]

It's extremely accurate..but that's cool. If it causes anger it definitely resonates with you..so I'm glad it got you thinking. That I am dissapointed that you didn't sit through it all.

Just look at well any goverment program and examines it's orginal cost to total cost. They have already added a hundred twenty two billion to the old bill already. It's weird that people actually believe money is unlimited /shrugs

If you do your research all of this stuff can be proven..I just like it that it's all one streamlined video anyone can get.


Back to basics!

This post has been edited by Nicodimas: 16 May 2010 - 08:32 PM

[worry]

[Nicodimas]

Anyhow one of the reasons I think we are totally dead in the water is I am up about 50x<50 bagger overall> my intial investment in the last year. Nothing scream hyperinflation to me then a normal Joe of average intellingence having those gains happen. I totally think we're screwed. I am not gold bug by any means either. I think if we ever have to use gold we are truly screwed at that point.

Just a long collapse at this point.


Disclosure: Margined in KFN<july 2009>, HOKU long.

[Illuyankas]

Quote

16.9 is higher than 17.5

Quote

extremely accurate

And the only part that made me think 'Hey, I kind of agree with that' was how the US is wasting money with military outposts everywhere, and then they ruined it utterly with 'waging perpetual war' and bullshit like that.

[Nicodimas]

Quote

'waging perpetual war'

I don't see us ever being out of these war's at this point. Plus there will be more wars to follow<immediately/concurrently> afterwards.. No I don't see the future obviously, but at this point that is preety clear. History is rife with Wars though..it's more of a when haven't we been fighting really.

This post has been edited by Nicodimas: 16 May 2010 - 09:19 PM

[Garak]

Here's a taste of local idiocy. So we're running out of money and the government decides to cut wages by 25% for the people paid directly by the government (like teachers and such) and 17% for the pensioners (which is stupid since the old people barely get any money as it is). I bet you a billion dollars that the parliament and the senators will not cut into their own salaries and random spending (lamps that cost 6.000 euro a piece? who are they trying to fool with that bullshit lie anyway? new cars and computers again? a retarded high number of senators not showing up for work, again?). Can someone please invade us and save from these incompetent morons please? And before you say that we elected them, a)there was no one else to elect and someone had to be elected apparently, ain't democracy fun b)old people vote for anyone who promises money c)they cheat at elections like you wouldn't believe(since a lot of them have been in politics since before the fall of the Soviet Union, they have practice at it).

Anyway, that's not the latest idiocy, that's just me ranting. The Church announced that they have the perfect solution to get our country out of economic trouble. Is it building up our industry? No. Will the Church donate money from their overfull coffers? Not a chance in Hell. So what is the solution then? It's simple: we build more churches ..... wait, what? That's the Church's answer, they ask for more money in a time of economic trouble? We have unfinished schools, hospitals that have run out of medicine and the Church asks for more money?

Sorry for the rant, but I'm really annoyed by this.

[Cold Iron]

Illuyankas, on 16 May 2010 - 08:06 PM, said:

Literally two and a half minutes into the video they say 'unemployment is at a multi-decade high RIGHT NOW' and have a higher number visible on the graph months earlier as they say it. Kind of destroys the point when they're wrong so damn quick.

To be fair the actual high from 9 months ago is clearly being treated as part of the current multi-decade high.

It's clearly sensationalism and speculation but there's a lot of data to back it up. Anybody with high school knowledge of economics can see that if keeping the interest rate at 0 in an effort to encourage enough growth to pay back the debt doesn't work (and it's not), they'll have to print more money to pay it off.

What they didn't mention however is that China needs their exports. It is not in their interest to bankrupt the US before they can consume enough domestically to stand on their feet, which is going to take a lot considering they have their own aging population problems. So while China holds all the foreign debt and the yuan is pegged to the US there is no great danger of the dollar going into freefall. As the US prints dollars, the value of their currency goes down, but so does the value of their debt.

ETA: My personal favourite part of the video was when they said Chinese kids get better educated cos if they don't get a good job they starve

This post has been edited by Cold Iron: 17 May 2010 - 04:01 AM

[Adjutant Stormy~]

tl;dw, but this is the sort of bull-crap that people are being spoon-fed these days. I mean, have you watched Glen Beck recently?

I honestly think that monetary and economic policies are always based on flawed assumptions, because economics isn't a science yet, still more of an art.

[Jusentantaka]

Cold Iron, on 17 May 2010 - 12:47 AM, said:

So while China holds all the foreign debt and the yuan is pegged to the US there is no great danger of the dollar going into freefall.

Its not just you, but: Why oh why oh WHY does everyone keep saying China owns (all of) the US debt? That's nothing but sensationalism too. http://www.treas.gov/tic/mfh.txt 877 billion is not 'all', hell its not even 25% of the 3.7 trillion of our debt owned by foreign institutions, and not more than a sliver of our total debt pie. Whether that makes it more vulnerable or not I don't know (care, actually).

But I think its safe to say that everyone freaking out over this would be infinitely happier if the UK bought the US debt from China. Would it change anything? No, but all the doom and gloom, get to the bomb shelter shit would be done with and maybe people would go do something useful with all the effort they spend coming up with econ-duumsday scenarios.

This post has been edited by Jusentantaka: 17 May 2010 - 01:38 AM